Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

[Limabot]

[X] Plan Knife, Name, and Candle

 

[Sveta08]

[X] Plan Exact Spending

 

[Nevermort]

Looked back at Fluttershy contest for Comet, found QM post mentioning that while rolls were omitted it was akin to combat and Harmony was definitely involved.

[Rolling: And He Will Not Release Him]

[Rolling: For Every Single Living Creature]

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Just a reminder that Harmony is at least willing to fight for its champions.

 

[Greymere]

So I just thought of this, but @OurLadyOfWires is leveling up Cadance's lores now going to be an option we can take, or is anything more than just initiation still too risky because of Celestia?

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

If we let Marinette hang out with Cadance more she will have a very convincing cover story for who taught her the spooky magics.

Celestia: "HOW? TELL ME SO I MAY TEAR THE SECRETS OF WHERE THEY TOOK LUNA FROM THEIR SHRIEKING, BROKE-"

Mareinette: [GRAIL!]

Celestia: "Oh, understandable, it was quite brash of me to presume you knew where Luna was, my apologies."

Edit: Okay so maybe it won't be that simple, but it is amusing to think about.

 

[DelightedOne]

If we let Marinette hang out with Cadance more she will have a very convincing cover story for who taught her the spooky magics.

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And there is also that hopeful possibility of Lantern 3 Celestia taking a good look at Mareinette and going all "Face the Sun, Monster." It is even more likely to happen if she is pretending to be Cadance at the time considering Celestia's previous experience with a shapeshifter(we know she isn't but Celestia is working on limited information) on the throne.

 

[Maer]

On the Moth/Grail Whombo-Combo Sacrament Boogaloo.

People don't like the idea of Grail-Sac'ing Spoiled because she's 'not that bad'. And to be fair, that's true, but... she's also the worst pony we currently know. The Moth->Grail Sacrament Combo saves time, effort, and resources. It is efficient and effective, and while cruel, it also at least ends her misery quickly, rather than dragging it out. The Moth reveal we have planned is already exceptionally cruel, revealing it was never US that she was friends with, and always a pony/foal-eating eldritch monster. Grail'ing her after just makes that horror more intense, but it also ends quickly. Her life after Moth will NEVER be the same, and NEVER recover.

She's already decided to view her marriage as an investment, she won't love Filthy, and that most likely won't change. So... we've permanently altered their marriage and Diamond's home life already. Wouldn't excising that wound be better for everyone involved? Diamond loses a mother, but can gain a new one and can finally live her life with fewer, if any, harsh expectations or demands from an overbearing mother who doesn't love her- at least not like she should- while Filthy can finally grieve a love lost and move on to find real love and happiness. Spoiled at least gets to move on to whatever afterlife Harmony has where she can heal and rest far away from the horrors happening to both herself, and Equestria at large.

Now, that's all emotional stuff, but how about the more hard and logical reasons? It saves AT LEAST 3 AP. Finding a Pony. Traveling TO them/capture expedition. Holding them until the sacrament costing at minimum some of our follower AP.

Not to mention the suspicion it'll rack up... No. It is cheaper in AP, Bits, and Follower actions to simply Moth->Grail Spoiled.

So.

Cruel? Yes, Exceptionally so. But a sharp spike of cruelty that quickly ends, as opposed to the lasting horror of what we've done and minor cruelties she enacts on her husband and daughter over time.
Efficient? Also Yes. More-so than the other plans involving the Grail Sacrament.

So, other than the cruelty aspect, which will be present no matter what we do, can someone explain to me why the Combo is so unwanted? Especially when we need to be more efficient with our AP usage than ever before until Soothe The Night can HOPEFULLY fix Celestia?

I am willing to be convinced, I just need an argument that can make more sense than what I have heard so far. Especially with how worried everyone is over everything. It doesn't even waste time building a Prison we'll need only like... once. Unless I missed something. But I don't think we'll need any prisoners in the next 4 turns unless a LOT of people get VERY cool with Pony sacrifice for various rituals REAL fast.

 

[Sveta08]

Large shrug.

While I like the idea of the combo for efficiency... and because I like the potential storyline that comes from it, I'm not married to the idea.

No one, and I do mean no one that I have seen, seems to be against the idea of the Moth Sacrament there. With Celestia looming as the ever present threat of the Sun, I don't think anyone is arguing that fact.
The Grail half is the larger argument. And saying Spoiled doesn't deserve that? Honestly, fair.

But! The Grail Sacrament still serves it's purpose. Even if not using Spoiled for it.
Both renewing the contract with Our Lady, as well as potentially getting her help when it comes to All In. Help that... to be frank, we will likely need.

 

[Maer]

[X] Plan Knives and Names
[X] Plan Knife, Name, and Candle

That's My Two cents on the vote.


But to clarify… I think the tides are turning on the Grail Sacrament. More people are beginning to be okay with- or at least resigned to doing- it, and the general vibe I got from the last few page were a number of people talking about getting it and how to get a prisoner for it, with almost no one actually arguing against it.

So with that in mind, I have to wonder why we're hamstringing ourselves like this? Why would we intentionally spend more AP than necessary when we can get Grail and Moth sacraments in the same turn, for less AP, with only a single victim?

Heck, as far as cruelty goes even finding a 'deserving' victim still means we were cruel to two people instead of only one. That should also be considered.

So yeah. I'm not necessarily married to the idea either, but it's not been told no even when directly addressed by the QM, so it's possible, and would save SO much time and effort… I just struggle to justify NOT doing the Combo.

 

[Earth-Destroyer]

As I have repeatably mentioned we need Mareinette on our side. Both for getting Heart 4, and for the final all mission. We do not want to be facing down an enemy Mareinette for the final mission, which will happen if we don't befriend her.

Don't think for a moment any of the names lack other lore knowledge assume they at minimum have 5's in every lore.

 

[Greymere]

I am willing to be convinced, I just need an argument that can make more sense than what I have heard so far. Especially with how worried everyone is over everything. It doesn't even waste time building a Prison we'll need only like... once. Unless I missed something. But I don't think we'll need any prisoners in the next 4 turns unless a LOT of people get VERY cool with Pony sacrifice for various rituals REAL fast.

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Putting aside that I just don't like Mareinette or her Grail Sacrament, or really any emotional arguments at all, my problem with it mechanically is that we do not actually have reason to consider that it's possible at all. Bird never actually said that he would allow such as thing, just more-or-less that he would think about it if enough people were willing for go for the Grail Sacrament generally.

this is quite tempting as far as bribery humble requests go, but... well, why don't we get the thread to a point they are willing to commit to this first? Then we can discuss terms

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[Maer]

Putting aside that I just don't like Mareinette or her Grail Sacrament, or really any emotional arguments at all, my problem with it mechanically is that we do not actually have reason to consider that it's possible at all. Bird never actually said that he would allow such as thing, just more-or-less that he would think about it if enough people were willing for go for the Grail Sacrament generally.

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Yes. Exactly. Mechanically, it has not received a no. So, if enough people are on board for it, Bird is willing to discuss/think about it. People are coming around to the idea, and discussion on how to make it happen as a normal, individual Sacrament are already happening with little if any argument against it. I'd say that counts. But still, you're right that it hasn't been officially accepted as possible by Bird yet. So I guess I'll ping them and check.

@OurLadyOfWires Apologies if it is too soon or not enough people are displaying interest, but as Greymere quoted, you mentioned that you'd consider the double-Sacrament option once enough people were willing to do the Grail sacrament. From what I've seen over the least several pages, numerous people are willing, and there are even plans being made to try and figure out the optimal way to find a prisoner to use for it, while few if any people are arguing against doing the Grail Sacrament- even if only out of a begrudging acknowledgement of the necessity of it.

I was wondering if you'd be willing to revisit the idea of using Spoiled for both the Moth and Grail Sacraments now? You don't have to make a decision immediately- obviously, that'd be a ridiculous demand to make of you- but now that it might happen in the next few turns before T-25, I was curious and hoping you'd think it over and let us know once you decided.

Thank you for this whole Quest. It's been an incredible few years following this Story as it's grown. The fact it's been less than 2 full years in-quest is also INSANE when you think about everything that's happened. Like... holy CROW this has been a WILD ride for poor Velvet and Equestria as a whole.

 

[Greymere]

@Maer some more thoughts.

Again speaking just purely mechanically, targeting someone else this turn costs us less than trying to go after Spoiled for both, ultimately. Trying to use Spoiled for both Moth and Grail means that we still have to pay Mareinette's price at the end of this turn. Getting a random prisoner this turn means that they can be used between turns as the price for Mareinette's renewal via Sacrament, so we wouldn't have to fork over a bunch of AP, bits, or a powerful artifact.

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

As I have repeatably mentioned we need Mareinette on our side. Both for getting Heart 4, and for the final all mission. We do not want to be facing down an enemy Mareinette for the final mission, which will happen if we don't befriend her.

Don't think for a moment any of the names lack other lore knowledge assume they at minimum have 5's in every lore.

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Again, you have zero evidence that Marinette becomes an enemy if we All-In without befriending her.

As for why the arguments for/against cannibalism are not flaring up into some big drama at this time, it's really simple: it's not time to vote on that stuff. The Moods of Mareinette do not affect the actions available to us, at least not at this time, so why should people waste their energy arguing against stuff that is independent of the current vote?

Also, I still feel that a Moth Sacrament enabled purely by Mareinette Socials is probably the least cruel way one can Moth Sacrament someone. It's less, "Velvet is a lying trickster who I know is false even though no one else can see it," and more, "oh, Mareinette, it was very thoughtful of you to take a form I was more comfortable with, but you needn't do that anymore with me," and then Velvet gets locked to Acquaintance because the Sacramented Pony realizes that Velvet never was the pony that was helping her out, it was Marinette, and so Mareinette nabs all those friendship ranks for herself.

Now I am imagining Mareinette introducing her new friend Spoiled to her other new friend Cadance via another rousing night of heavy, heavy drinking.

Also, if Mareinette can be placated by tossing an artifact here way, I'm all for it. Trying to get people to study the things has almost always been an exercise in frustration anyways, let her feast upon the things if she wishes. It's not like they can help Velvet in the Mansus at this point anyways, her Lores are too high.

 

[Maer]

@Maer some more thoughts.

Again speaking just purely mechanically, targeting someone else this turn costs us less than trying to go after Spoiled for both, ultimately. Trying to use Spoiled for both Moth and Grail means that we still have to pay Mareinette's price at the end of this turn. Getting a random prisoner this turn means that they can be used between turns as the price for Mareinette's renewal via Sacrament, so we wouldn't have to fork over a bunch of AP, bits, or a powerful artifact.

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That isn't exactly true. Sacraments have been stated to be capable of being performed before you reach 4/4 scraps, it's just not something a person usually does. We could do the Moth Sacrament right now, if we wanted. We'd just need to read the book afterwards before we could get to Moth 5. So we could theoretically do both the same turn Spoiled get's turned. Unless I'm mis-remembering something?

I think Bird confirmed that, anyways. I can go digging if you need me to quote it, though I'm not sure how far back it was. Regardless, if you have proof I'm wrong about that understanding, I'd be willing to accept that as well.

Also, side-note, thank you for reminding me her renewal was this turn. I had forgotten how long ago we renewed her bindings and thought we had more time. The urgency makes significantly more sense to me now. If Sacraments REQUIRE 4/4 Scraps before you do them, then I will be fine with focusing on doing them separately. If they don't though, I'd like more people to consider doing the Combo, if only for the sake of efficiency and AP Hell considerations.

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

That isn't exactly true. Sacraments have been stated to be capable of being performed before you reach 4/4 scraps, it's just not something a person usually does. We could do the Moth Sacrament right now, if we wanted. We'd just need to read the book afterwards before we could get to Moth 5. So we could theoretically do both the same turn Spoiled get's turned. Unless I'm mis-remembering something?

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"Actions of your own: "You have never really liked yourself. That is an ugly truth you have always denied, and that you attempted to bury underneath the love that others feel for you. But perhaps, and only perhaps, it is time to embrace that, and learn to be somepony else."
-Pick a single character with whom you have a "Confidant-level" relationship or higher. That character will be permanently locked as an "acquaintance". For somepony must realize that you have donned a mask, for it to truly exist.
-You must reach 4/4 scraps of Moth before taking this action."

I have bolded the relevant text for the Moth Sacrament. There are some Sacraments where you only need 2/4 Scraps to get started on them. Velvet's Moth Sacrament is not one of them, the Moth book must be read first.

 

[Nevermort]

As I have repeatably mentioned we need Mareinette on our side. Both for getting Heart 4, and for the final all mission. We do not want to be facing down an enemy Mareinette for the final mission, which will happen if we don't befriend her.

Don't think for a moment any of the names lack other lore knowledge assume they at minimum have 5's in every lore.

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Or we deal with Celestia instead. I already argued at some point that to safely clear All-in we need to resolve her issue. I don't even care that much how exactly as long as Luna is okay with it or accepts it as necessary. But the moment she and Luna begin seriously fighting they will obliterate Canterlot with their no holds barred attacks. And Luna is necessary for All-in expedition. This is most narratively compelling moment for their confrontation if we don't do something before that.

 

[Greymere]

That isn't exactly true. Sacraments have been stated to be capable of being performed before you reach 4/4 scraps, it's just not something a person usually does. We could do the Moth Sacrament right now, if we wanted. We'd just need to read the book afterwards before we could get to Moth 5. So we could theoretically do both the same turn Spoiled get's turned. Unless I'm mis-remembering something?

I think Bird confirmed that, anyways. I can go digging if you need me to quote it, though I'm not sure how far back it was. Regardless, if you have proof I'm wrong about that understanding, I'd be willing to accept that as well.

Also, side-note, thank you for reminding me her renewal was this turn. I had forgotten how long ago we renewed her bindings and thought we had more time. The urgency makes significantly more sense to me now. If Sacraments REQUIRE 4/4 Scraps before you do them, then I will be fine with focusing on doing them separately. If they don't though, I'd like more people to consider doing the Combo, if only for the sake of efficiency and AP Hell considerations.

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Some Sacraments can, it depends on the Sacrament itself. The more important thing is that Bird has confirmed that generally, unless whatever missing part of a Sacrament can be fulfilled by an on-command thing like scraps from a Name or (presumably) our Leash, all of the requirements for a Sacrament must be fulfilled by turn start before the Sacrament action may be taken. We cannot do either the Grail or Moth Sacrament this turn, because we have not fulfilled the conditions for either (Moth 4 4/4 + Confidant that we're willing to sacrifice for Moth, a Minion we're willing to sacrifice or a Prisoner for Grail). The only reason we should be able to sort of cheat this in regards to the Grail Sacrament is because Mareinette's binding renewal technically happens "between" turns but has the Grail Sacrament as an available option, so if we successfully acquire a prisoner this turn, that means there should be a prisoner available during the contract renewal and therefore for the Grail Sacrament.

Edit: The relevant bit of discussion

Yeah as far as Bird seems concerned, it seems we need to pretty much have all the conditions met before the turn actually starts. The only reason we can get away with doing DoA's Sacrament this turn is because Name lessons are both quick, basically on-command, and guaranteed to work.

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Yeah. And I'll say it again. For you guys, doing a Sacrament is as easy as picking an option after you fulfill the prerequisites. This being a game, you guys have the "guarantee" it will either work, or that you will runs a dice test under known circumstances.

But to Velvet, it is a plunge into the unknown.

So, I really don't like the idea of "gain final scrap on this turn, and try the Sacrament right after". She needs time to prepare, to understand what she knows and put her thoughts in order... hell, she needs to psyche herself up.

Because the last experience she had with something like this were her Realizations. And those were mostly (1) traumatic and (2) caught her by surprise.

So no, she is not interested in rushing into what is effectively a juiced up and voluntary version of that. She will want to prepare herself, both ritualistically and mentally.

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[DelightedOne]

Or we deal with Celestia instead. I already argued at some point that to safely clear All-in we need to resolve her issue. I don't even care that much how exactly as long as Luna is okay with it or accepts it as necessary. But the moment she and Luna begin seriously fighting they will obliterate Canterlot with their no holds barred attacks. And Luna is necessary for All-in expedition. This is most narratively compelling moment for their confrontation if we don't do something before that.

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I agree with your strategy/point of view, but our true enemy here isn't exactly Celestia, it is Daybreaker.

She is the one making Celestia focus all of herself(including her Kindness and Generosity) into keeping her bound leaving whatever shell of herself Velvet deals with. If it really came down to it Celestia could forgive Velvet for what she has done(or at least let her live) if Selene and Cadance vouched for her, Daybreaker wouldn't.

 

[Nevermort]

I agree with your strategy/point of view, but our true enemy here isn't exactly Celestia, it is Daybreaker.

She is the one making Celestia focus all of herself(including her Kindness and Laughter) into keeping her bound leaving whatever shell of herself Velvet deals with. If it really came down to it Celestia could forgive Velvet for what she has done(or at least let her live) if Selene and Cadance vouched for her, Daybreaker wouldn't.

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Technically you are correct but they are in the same body so we still would need to target Celestia. And while we need to wait because Luna asked for it, and there is still hope for some mental solution the moment it looks like we can't outpace her with our Moth all bets are off. If we need to knock her out, or develop ritual to put her to sleep so we can exchange her for principal Celestia human Twilight's way then so be it. Let Harmony sort them out.

 

[Sveta08]

Celestia?

Luna, specifically, said she wanted to try and handle Celestia at her own pace. To try and tell her and assist in that way. Given her push towards trying to soothe the night, to watch the dreams of her sister, and...

I've... had a theory, and have had it for a minute. Just hasn't been useful, so I've kept it in the back pocket.
Selene knows what happened when she became Nightmare Moon, so very long ago. That personal drive, that feeling that something is wrong, the idea that you and you alone have to handle it. Celestia too saw that, so long ago. If I have to hazard a guess, maybe that's where the Nobility came from? People who were capable and confident and who were vetted, who could help Celestia in their own small ways. Not everything, but... maybe enough. I don't know.
But Selene knows how she threw herself into that work. Unknowning, ignorant of the worms. How doing it on her own all but killed her. How her body was used and piloted against her will. How Celestia was used to torment her in those visions and dreams. A sister who was not Your Sister. Who was wrong.
Selene knows what Celestia experienced with the Changelings. Not in the same way no, but it follows the same... direction almost.

I believe she knows what she's doing. Or, is throwing herself into it so much so as to learn what needs to be done.
I am more worried about giving her the time she needs, than what will be done.

 

[Anjaxis]

[X] Plan Knife, Name, and Candle

 

[Pittauro]

Her life after Moth will NEVER be the same, and NEVER recover.

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Sure about never be the same. How can you say she'll NEVER recover though?

So with that in mind, I have to wonder why we're hamstringing ourselves like this? Why would we intentionally spend more AP than necessary when we can get Grail and Moth sacraments in the same turn, for less AP, with only a single victim?

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Because some of us give that much importance to Velvet TRYING to be a good person, or at least the least bad she can be while still doing all she has to.

It's simple: Spoiled Rich is a bad person. She's not bad enough to deserve death, and while arguably she doesn't quite deserve the Moth Sacrament either, there is an argument to be made that she did the same to other people herself.

After all she presumably pretends to be friendly to all powerful and important people, and probably keeps up a facade to her husband too, while being horrible to those "inferior" to her.

We're, in a way, doing to her what she does to others (...just with more eldritch in the mix).

As far as the Moth Sacrament is concerned, I'm more regretful about the indirect consequences for her family over the ones on her, really.

And yet, I still don't want to kill her, because it would be the first time Velvet DIRECTLY has someone killed who you just can't rationalize as "at least they mostly deserved it".

The changelings were going to die anyway.

Copper tried to kill us, even if we both fell for the Master's trick, so at that point it was us or her (well, there was MAYBE a chance of making peace, but... it's hard to make peace with someone ACTIVELY trying to kill you, AND she was STILL a criminal even ignoring what she personally did to us).

We didn't DIRECTLY cause anyone's death beside them, I think?

(Canterlot Guards don't count! It wasn't our choice!)

@Maer some more thoughts.

Again speaking just purely mechanically, targeting someone else this turn costs us less than trying to go after Spoiled for both, ultimately. Trying to use Spoiled for both Moth and Grail means that we still have to pay Mareinette's price at the end of this turn. Getting a random prisoner this turn means that they can be used between turns as the price for Mareinette's renewal via Sacrament, so we wouldn't have to fork over a bunch of AP, bits, or a powerful artifact.

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I think you're missing the point here.

I'm assuming that after the friendship... we probably won't NEED to renew the bindings anymore.

She will, after all, become our friend. We wouldn't NEED to keep her leashed, because she'd likely be HAPPY to do us favours without that pretend-game of master and servant going on.

After all, keep in mind she could break the bindings at LITERALLY any time. If we're friends, why would we need some mostly ineffective bindings anyway?

Or look at Axe. Technically speaking, she summoned herself right now, didn't she? If I understand it right she technically is NOT under bindings right now, she's helping Silky (and us) of her own free will.

We were told that the way to keep Names in the Wake is the same as befriending them, once upon a time. I'd apply that to keeping Mareinette's actions too, seeing as she's in the Wake to stay.

And... maybe, to keep a friend happy, she'll be willing to at least restrict her diet to bad people. maybe.

Again, you have zero evidence that Marinette becomes an enemy if we All-In without befriending her.

As for why the arguments for/against cannibalism are not flaring up into some big drama at this time, it's really simple: it's not time to vote on that stuff. The Moods of Mareinette do not affect the actions available to us, at least not at this time, so why should people waste their energy arguing against stuff that is independent of the current vote?

Also, I still feel that a Moth Sacrament enabled purely by Mareinette Socials is probably the least cruel way one can Moth Sacrament someone. It's less, "Velvet is a lying trickster who I know is false even though no one else can see it," and more, "oh, Mareinette, it was very thoughtful of you to take a form I was more comfortable with, but you needn't do that anymore with me," and then Velvet gets locked to Acquaintance because the Sacramented Pony realizes that Velvet never was the pony that was helping her out, it was Marinette, and so Mareinette nabs all those friendship ranks for herself.

Now I am imagining Mareinette introducing her new friend Spoiled to her other new friend Cadance via another rousing night of heavy, heavy drinking.

Also, if Mareinette can be placated by tossing an artifact here way, I'm all for it. Trying to get people to study the things has almost always been an exercise in frustration anyways, let her feast upon the things if she wishes. It's not like they can help Velvet in the Mansus at this point anyways, her Lores are too high.

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Definitely true about there not being evidence of Mareinette becoming an enemy.

It's POSSIBLE, but we don't even know if it's probable. Just like many other things are possible, for example (and I hope so!) that the story will NOT be over after the Tricuspid, or that the Master would have not become an enemy in the post-epilogue if we had allowed them to be reborn as an Alicorn, and it's possible there might be a secret way to free Biedde.

After all Name Traits HAVE been lies before.

Remember how they implied that Baldomare was fragile ON PURPOSE while now the implication is that it's a consequence of her wound we're trying to fill with "lvl 7 knowledge"?

Or how Axe's traits implied that the 1 month cooldown was her choice, and that she didn't care about being sacrificed for rituals while it was instead to not show weakness?

[UNINTERESTED]: Will refuse any gifts to stay in the Wake (however, Her cooldown for re-summoning is a single full month)

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[NONCOMBATANT]: Baldomare refuses to engage in any sort of fighting, and has adjusted her health to reflect that. "I barely ever wear a body! So why would I want to feel pain on the rare occasions I do?"

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those two traits are, to some extent, lies.

It's not out of the question that there is actually a secret way to "release" Biedde. It's still unlikely.

---

Oh, another thing. Just in case it's been missed, even if we went for Moth + Grail on Spoiled, mechanics-wise we'd still need a prison, because she'll ONLY be a confidant (thanks to leash) when we do Moth, and to do Grail she needs to be a prisoner (which requires a prison, or a much more inefficient set of guard actions) or a minion.

Large shrug.

While I like the idea of the combo for efficiency... and because I like the potential storyline that comes from it, I'm not married to the idea.

No one, and I do mean no one that I have seen, seems to be against the idea of the Moth Sacrament there. With Celestia looming as the ever present threat of the Sun, I don't think anyone is arguing that fact.
The Grail half is the larger argument. And saying Spoiled doesn't deserve that? Honestly, fair.

But! The Grail Sacrament still serves it's purpose. Even if not using Spoiled for it.
Both renewing the contract with Our Lady, as well as potentially getting her help when it comes to All In. Help that... to be frank, we will likely need.

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It takes "a special kind of evil" to deserve to be the subject of grail sacrament.

And yeah, I was and still am a bit uncomfortable with Moth Sacrament, but the need for it is too great and obvious.

It's LITERALLY the best way we have to keep out of Celestia's side, Though I suppose in theory an artifact would work too... but that's a lot of actions and bits we might not be able to afford in the short term. Maybe if we still consider ourselves not ready for All In as Celestia is at Moth 5?

uh, I forget, did she need to SURPASS our moth, or to equal it?

---

TENTATIVE SACRAMENT PLANS FOR THE NEXT FEW TURNS:

Spoiler: Sacrament analysis

I'll actually go lore by lore instead of turn by turn this time

Personal Moth: turn 23 (next turn) or turn 24, depending on when Spoiled becomes a Confidant.

We need a social action, MAYBE two, either Mareinette or Velvet, to rank her up. Oh, and to study the Moth 5 book.

Baldomare Lantern: Not earlier than turn 24 unless we get lucky. We need to study the Lantern artifact (1 scrap), to get a Lantern Influence from Baldomare (2 scraps), and we STILL need a source for the 4th scrap... maybe we'll get lucky in the Mansus or in an expedition, but it's hard to predict.

Once we have the scraps, we just need to lend Baldomare 4 points worth of followers. I'm leaning either 2 Mares-in-the-Light, or Axe+Risen.

Personal Lantern: If we wanted to, considering we probably need the prison for Grail anyway, we could also do Personal Lantern. I think we're better off with Baldomare both narratively (less cruel) and mechanically (cheaper). This one would require another prisoner, so presumably another scry + Biedde kidnapping. Also DC 100 and we roll +80 max (lantern 4 + lantern influence), so there's always going to be a 20% chance of failure.

Personal Forge: Potentially turn 24 or 25? We need 3 scraps, but we can get them from influence + name lesson. After that we'd need 100 or 150 bits, and 2 or 3 actions.

Name Forge: it could potentially be cheaper. We just don't know. There's a chance of us getting this as early as turn 24 (summon them now, lesson on turn 23, influence on turn 24) depending on prerequisites.

Biedde Edge. Turn 22 (this one) Needs Edge Influence and ideally 3 Edge AotL for best odds (around 80%).

Personal Edge: Unless we find a worthy opponent in Tall Tale and/or fail the fight with Biedde, we're not doing this.

Wolf Edge: No. Nothing good comes from the Wolf.

Also:

The Wolf's Invitation: "There exists a wound that never stops growing, a cut that has never ceased. To know it is to know Agony."

Click to shrink...

This sounds like imprinting true knowledge and understanding of AGONY in Velvet's soul. no thank you.

Personal Winter: unknown. We need 3 scraps. 1 we can get from winter 4 artifact, 2 from, in theory, a tier 4 influence if we're lucky in a Call Influence ritual. I think there's a non-zero chance we could get 1 scrap from the Sacrament actions themselves, but we can't really rely on it.

Worth pointing out we don't need to be at 4/4 to start working on this though. IF we were lucky... maybe turn 25? It's optimistic

Neighnia Winter: It might be worth considering scrying and doing an expedition to try and find Neighnia. This would give us an alternative for Winter Sacrament AND potentially another Name. That said, we might just not have the time to even try.

Heart: We're probably not getting it. we'd need four lvl 3 scraps AND four lvl 4 scraps, Plus other requirements. It's our only lvl 3 lore...

Baldomare Grail: Technically there's two phases here. We're likely to eat a pony BEFORE we get the 4 scraps we need (we're likely getting those from Mareinette lessons AFTER the Sacrament dinner I imagine). If we're talking "eating a pony", probably turn 24 or 25. we need to scry for and get a prisoner after all. If we're talking the actual power... turn 25 or 26?

Personal Grail: NO. Nearly everybody Agrees on not doing this, I think. We slipped down the slippery slope enough that we're mostly willing to do truly horrible stuff to bad people, but permanent brainwashing of our closest friends sounds all kinds of wrong. Also we don't even HAVE 3 minions! Most viable way to get there would be Rarity, Jade (if Velvet can acknowledge she's really a minion already) and then use the Leash on another confidant.

...I kinda wonder how this would interact with Moth "confidant locked to acquaintance". @OurLadyOfWires out of curiosity, what would happen if we used a "locked" minion for Moth Sacrament? Do they go mad? Do they STILL go down to Acquaintance? does the lock to minion get precedence?

Knock: Done. Now if only we found out about what our power even DOES... maybe it will be relevant in Tall Tale?

Personal and Baldomare SH: I'm expecting Baldomare on turn 23 and Personal on turn 24. Personal requires SH Influence and 2 actions (and some luck). Baldomare requires a Velvet AP AND Baldomare (and it will help with Personal too thanks to lvl 5 stat).

---

SO, BEST CASE SCENARIOS:​

Turn 22: Biedde Edge.
Turn 23: Baldomare SH. Personal Moth
Turn 24: Personal SH
Turn 25: Forge (either of), Lantern (technically either of, but most likely Baldomare). Grail (the dinner, but not the sacrament power).
Turn 26 (if we get there. Turn 25 is worst case for Celestia Lantern 5, though some luck or a Moth 6-7 artifact could buy us more time): Winter (TECHNICALLY possible before, but if we're working on the other sacraments AND the Name friendships I find it extremely unlikely
We already have Knock. Basically no chance of getting Heart in time.

 

[DelightedOne]

We didn't DIRECTLY cause anyone's death beside them, I think?

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I don't think Velvet did, but the thread did vote for Canterlot to burn, no judgement, that was the less bad option of a bunch of bad choices.

uh, I forget, did she need to SURPASS our moth, or to equal it?

Click to shrink...

Equal it, that is why it is so scary.

Notes: You must not allow Celestia's Lantern level to reach your Moth level.

Click to shrink...

 

[ses]

Befriending Mareinette gets her 2 actions a turn, which makes lessons a lot more viable. Influence plus 2 Heart lessons means we could get Heart 4 in one and a half Befriended Mareinette turns. If we find a level 5 Heart book in a higher level expedition we can skip those two lessons as well, and like, we're going to be getting a lot more level 5 books now that Axe is befriended and we're getting more serious about expeditions with a much larger organization. Grail 5 is also much easier to get the scraps for if we can take 2 grail lessons a turn, though that obviously interferes hard with getting Heart 4. But I mean... if we already paid the big price might as well.

Man that failed scry hurts our plans so much.

But yes put me down as "Personal Winter is morally worse than Invitation to Dinner. Maybe even worse than three times as bad considering how disproportionate the reward we'd be getting in the respective "do bad thing for power" payoffs." Turning a potential powerful Name enemy into a friend is so much bigger a payoff than +1 Winter level and access to the Sun-In-Rags Expedition. We can just scry for a level 7 winter artifact instead of taking the Sacrament. It'll probably actually be more action efficient tbh all things considered. Maybe Winter 6 to be extra sure that we dont get screwed by no winter 7 artifacts existing in the Wake. Either way gets us MORE winter bonus to the Malleary expedition than Personal Winter does.

Sacrament perks dont seem to be impactful in "beating the Malleary" ways, and Lore 6 for always-reroll is not a chance in hell without a Befriended Name of that lore, so Winter Sacrament doesn't actually do much for us besides the sense of pride and accomplishment compared to an artifact.

Actually... can we scry for "The highest level Moth artifact in the Wake" and rely on the Velvet Faction being badass at expeditions? The Dappled Ashes and Obsidian Throne may be rip but maybe the Alakapurine Shears are still around in the Wake to find. Considering its a high level Moth artifact we'd want a Baldomare Scry with MITL sacrifice, so she can punch through any sort of -150 moth protection it has but we should be able to manage that.

If Tall Tale works the way we want it to and we get to nab artifacts now that we're at max loyalty and going personally and the Bureau has indeed become a source of taxpayer funded expeditions that don't cost 3 Velvet AP to go on that may end up being a much more attractive alternative. It also directly aids in the Malleary so we can't even object that we're playing to not-lose instead of win!

 

[Sveta08]

We didn't DIRECTLY cause anyone's death beside them, I think?

Click to shrink...

Well, there were the guards who were guarding Twilight on the rescue mission. Which, I think Velvet could very easily rationalize away.

But past that? Yeah. The Royal Guard. If memory serves, there were some number that still died after we knew where Luna was.

But, that aside, I quite like the whole discussion of Sacramental planning. I agree with up through turn 23... and past that it doesn't really matter I think.
Best laid plans of mice and men and all that.

 

[OurLadyOfWires]

Heyia.

So, I am not caught up to thread, and I will backtrack to answer pings later. I just wanted to chime in to give my two cents on this and that.

That being said, without further ado:



My thoughts on Mareinette.



This also applies to Names in general. All Names, really. But I'll focus on Mareinette for obvious reasons.

I want to make it very clear that my stance on Name-summoning is that "it is strongly encouraged". It is encouraged but, critically, it is not required.

As a writer, I would like you guys to summon all the Names, and possibly befriend them, because (to put it very simply) I put a lot of thought into the Names and their individual circumstances. After all, more certain than meeting the Mane 6, or the Inner Circle, or any other mortal character in the Wake, I was sure you guys would bump into the Names because scaling the Mansus is almost mandatory in a quest about Cultist Simulator.

So, I thought a lot about the Names. I slightly altered the ones that are well known (such as Baldomare), I had a lot of fun with the ones that are only vaguely known (such as Biedde), and I even created a few new ones (such as DoA).

Which makes it very clear that I like them. I like them, and I want to write about them, and I would be delighted if the quest went in that direction.

But then again, summoning names is "encouraged but not required".

Because in the end, this is still a quest and you guys are the ones who decide how it goes down.

Now, I am writing this to try to bring the playing field back to a "neutral" point, where you can all discuss actions without too much fear of the unknown. And given how, well, my profile picture is Marinette's face I can see why there is always an undertone of "we really should befriend her tho".

To that end, let me be very clear: unbefriended Names will not be "side-bosses" on the All In expedition. There are individual reasons for that, but unbefriended Names won't be waiting for you guys in the Summit with latin-chanting boss music starting the moment they say "can't let you do that, Velvet Covers".

I have created mechanical encouragements to befriend Names. And you can look at DoA to (finally) see what a befriended Name can look like. But again, you guys don't need to do it.

That's... basically it.



I am writing this because All In is right around the corner, Celestia's doom clock is ticking, and there is a chance this quest might end soon. I don't say this with any ill intent, and I love writing this (I really do!).

But, as I heard said once, when a game of chess starts there are infinite ways it can go, but as you approach the end your choices narrow down to a corridor.

So by all means. Rush what needs to be rushed, focus on what needs to be focused, and please continue to have fun in this world we share! But don't feel forced to do something you don't want to do because of hidden fears.

So:
-Unbefriended Names will only learn about All In after it is too late.
-And befriending Names is strongly encouraged but not required.

I hope you are all doing well! I'll do some preliminary dice rollings, and see if I can start writing about this and that to get it posted as soon as the voting closes.

Cheers

 

[ses]

I was never a believer in "Enemy mareinette even if we All In within 4 turns" anyway, but I personally dont want to commit to All In within the next 4 turns regardless, let alone without Mareinette. Malleary hurdles are CD 120, which means that we're running non-trivial failure rates even with Sacrament plus Name Influence. Without name influences or actually doing endgame expeditions for endgame artifacts we're looking at sheer fucking hubris that our Ruined Church 1 luck will repeat and not our Ruined Church 2 luck, despite the odds. We lucksacked Ruined Church massively the first time, our lores have not actually increased very much since then, and 120 is 20 higher than 100.

It may have taken us absurdly long to hit the [OUR RISE BEGINS] message, but QM was responding to questions about cult infrastructure with "talk to me again when you hit 5/9" in a way that does not fill me with confidence that we're past the point where investments have run out of time to pay off. Our options may be narrowing as we move into endgame, but this is the beginning of the end, not the end of the end.

We can Baldomare Scry for a level 6+ moth artifact, we can Soothe the Night and defuse/delay the doom clock, we can invest in the Bureau and start doing endgame expeditions. We can befriend Names. Axe was befriended after 7 turns, a third of the quest. Baldomare will be befriended at a point where we summoned her at the halfway point from start till then and befriended her after being non-befriended for half the quest to that point. We may have taken much longer than expected with Baldomare but Axe seemed like we got our befriending about "as intended" in terms of speed, or at least not absurdly late. It would be weird if the game were balanced such that we had literally zero time to have the rewards of befriended names pay dividends.

Princess Luna has made the decision that, for now, it is best she doesn't reveal herself to her sister. Something happened to her. It did not feel as intrusive and disgusting as it did with herself, but the end result felt just as evil. Celestia is still in there, but she is entirely focused on keeping that evil in check. So it is best if Luna... doesn't upset that balance. She also learned that...

Spoiler: The mentality of the Sun - Better understood

7 or higher: ???

6: ???

5: ???

4: ???

3: ???

2: Daybreaker is born, shackled by her regretful creator. The result of this battle of wills will define the future of Equestria. (???)

1: Daybreaker has come, and Equestria shall slave under the glare of the sun. (Introduce "hyperthermia" mechanic)

0 or lower: "Lady Coelle's actions are not alien to ponykind. But a mirror of their consequences certainly is."

For now, she should really just talk to her parents, and decide what to do next.

And what about her third sister? Later, later, you will have time for her soon.

More to follow.

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" The result of this battle of wills "

It's pretty well spelled out that the Daybreaker/Celestia battle is kind of by definition not decided yet, and can still have either one come out on top. Therefore if we invest in tipping the scales with Selene defusing her is absolutely on the table. If it wasn't a possible outcome it wouldn't have been described as "a battle"

 

[Random Anon]

[X] Plan Knife, Name, and Candle
-[X] (ALL IN) You will NOT attempt the "All In" expedition.
-[X] (BIEDDE) Fund a short monster-hunting expedition (Costs 60 bits)
-[X] (MAREINETTE) Mareinette is her own mare, and Cadance could use some company. Don't do anything, and see how things turn out.
-[X] (FORGE NAME) You will attempt the "Rite of Joyous (Re)Forging" (Sacrifice 1 Wrong Key, Forge 2 Reagent, 438 Bits)

 

[spiderhellian]

That is good to know. I still think we should befriend Mareinette, but it's nice to not have to worry about that.