Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

[spiderhellian]

I think scrying All In is kinda pointless. We have the heads up it's difficult and/or dangerous, and besides, we're going to be bringing everything we can… I don't really see how scrying changes our decisionmaking at all.

 

[Wise Wolf]

I think scrying All In is kinda pointless. We have the heads up it's difficult and/or dangerous, and besides, we're going to be bringing everything we can… I don't really see how scrying changes our decisionmaking at all.

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Well, we do have to choose what influence we bring, with both Winter and Moth being kind of low without it. If we knew one of those was more relevant to All-In, we could optimize slightly better.

 

[ses]

Well, we do have to choose what influence we bring, with both Winter and Moth being kind of low without it. If we knew one of those was more relevant to All-In, we could optimize slightly better.

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Kinda funny but Velvet's AP is mostly burnt on Help Cadance on turn 23, and will be mostly burnt on Smiles on turn 24. But if we reach turn 25 as our "This is our final turn" turn our best move is to spend that Moth 4 reagent we've got sitting in our inventory on a Moth Influence and spend the entire rest of the turn on making Torn Risen for Winter levels.

But the actual reason to toss an overpowered scry at All In is that we do in fact have multiple pieces of precedent for scouting expeditions giving +10 or +20 bonuses.

 

[Earth-Destroyer]

Well, we do have to choose what influence we bring, with both Winter and Moth being kind of low without it. If we knew one of those was more relevant to All-In, we could optimize slightly better.

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We only need influences for lores we don't have have Befriended name for.

 

[Greymere]

But the actual reason to toss an overpowered scry at All In is that we do in fact have multiple pieces of precedent for scouting expeditions giving +10 or +20 bonuses.

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Do we? I only recall us ever getting a bonus to the expedition in BtRC Part 2, which was from reading that one book, not from scouting.

 

[ses]

Do we? I only recall us ever getting a bonus to the expedition in BtRC Part 2, which was from reading that one book, not from scouting.

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We got several hurdle bonuses from Jade's scry on the Copper Assault

 

[Pittauro]

Speaking of scrying, if we summon a MITL this turn and the game lasts until turn 25, we probably can afford Baldomare sacrificing the expiring MITL on turn 25 at All In. We know that scrying All In is supposed to be nearly impossible but Baldomare with a 5 Lantern sacrifice should probably be able to get something.

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Good point. If we're going to scry, we should give it our best effort.

THAT SAID, rather than lose the MitL which we could bring to the expedition, maybe we could just... make a lantern 4 reagent and use that? 10 less points, but we get to bring the summon with us instead of sacrificing it.

We can judge then, depending on if we have other uses for the Bits or the reagent. For example, we might want to summon an influence with the ritual, as THAT one would persist for both All In and the Mansus expedition right after.

That's great and all but... what purpose would that serve? Unless the doom clock gets defused or extended even further, it's not like we can really do anything additional to prepare at that point.

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when we went for Copper, having scried saved us from having to do some rolls, didn't it? I think we got some auto-successes that way.

It could also help narratively in other ways. For example, if we know that a specific room will have a combat challenge, we could leave Baldomare and Velvet behind and let Smiles, Axe and Mareinette take point. Or knowing there's guards inside BEFORE going inside might allow us to forge some fake documents to get through, or something like that.

There's many ways in which some intel could make things easier.

Well, we do have to choose what influence we bring, with both Winter and Moth being kind of low without it. If we knew one of those was more relevant to All-In, we could optimize slightly better.

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Also this I suppose.




and

Information acquired:
1 – Copper Secateur's location has been confirmed to be in Manehattan. (Scouting the city for whereabouts of her presence is no longer necessary)
2 – Copper Secateur's precise location has been discovered. (Searching the city for her location is no longer necessary)
3 – The precise location of her moveable assets has been discovered. (Searching her stronghold for said assets, during the assault, is no longer necessary)
4 – The general layout of her defenses has been scouted. (General information acquired)
5 – The finer details of her defenses have been scouted. (Useful information acquired, plus situational bonuses)
6 – The precise location of an important item (Velvet Covers' original Manuscripts) has been discovered. (Additional options available during the assault)
7 onwards – [THRESHOLD NOT REACHED]

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[Infiltrating the inner sanctum, CD 120]

[Roll: 28 + 50 (Axe, leader) + 30 (Moth total 6) + 20 (Jade's scrying - fifth threshold) = 128]

[Finding critical evidence]

[Auto-success due to Jade's scrying - sixth threshold]

[Finding moveable assets]

[Auto-success due to Jade's scrying - third threshold]

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Here is what scrying could have done, depending on thresholds, for Copper Assault. And damn, i saw again how her last words were basically about how we'd use Selene like we used her... and then she realizes that Selene is LUNA, and she calls us mother, which VERY REASONABLY implies we already brainwashed her to follow us.

Truly, Copper's life AND death was suffering.

In any case, the point is that scrying can allow us to avoid some challenges, save time, avoid dangers... maybe find extra loot? Like, it's possible Discord is NOT there alone as a statue. Maybe Celestia is also holding some extremely valuable artifact in there that could help with the Mansus? Admittedly that's unlikely to matter because we don't GET a turn to study them...

 

[Greymere]

Something I noticed but forgot to point out ealier, but the neutral traits for the two Edge Names feel almost... inverted?

[MY SCARS ARE LESSONS]: If Biedde is wounded during combat, he will receive a "+5 personal combat" for each wound received. Until he defeats, or is defeated by, the creature that wounded him, or until the combat ends.
[PROFESSIONAL SOLDIER]: Biedde will always perform a "Guard" action for free, on top of whatever orders he receives for the turn, unless his actions specifically require him to be totally unavailable for the turn.

[TERRIFYING OPPONENT]: Creatures that are capable of feeling fear will avoid combat with him as much as possible. They will not flee or refuse attacking him, but they will avoid "dogpiling" him whenever possible.

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[CRUSHING STRENGTH]: If Smiles causes at least one wound to an opponent during battle, he causes an additional wound.
[TROUBLEMAKER]: Once per turn, Smiles may lead one assault (or one Short Expedition) without spending any action points.

[LAUGHING GIANT]: During combat, Smiles will try to taunt, attract and engage as many enemies as he can at the same time. He does not receive any mechanical advantage when attempting to do so, but foes will naturally try to "dogpile" him whenever possible.

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Biedde gains strength with every wound, but actively discourages situations where that wound bonus would persist to apply against multiple combatants. Smiles wants to crush a singular opponent as quickly as possible, but has a trait to draw in multiple combatants.

Though that gives me a thought @OurLadyOfWires considering we got our Sacrament from Smiles, does that mean he also Heals Without Scars?

 

[ses]

Good point. If we're going to scry, we should give it our best effort.

THAT SAID, rather than lose the MitL which we could bring to the expedition, maybe we could just... make a lantern 4 reagent and use that? 10 less points, but we get to bring the summon with us instead of sacrificing it.

We can judge then, depending on if we have other uses for the Bits or the reagent. For example, we might want to summon an influence with the ritual, as THAT one would persist for both All In and the Mansus expedition right after.

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A MITL summoned on turn 23 wont be able to go to All In if we go at end of turn 25, which is why I only mention it in the context of us reaching Turn 25. 23 24 and 25 is three full turns, so it wouldn't get to go between 25 and 26. Same with Risen, only risen created on the turn we commit to all in can come.

Here is what scrying could have done, depending on thresholds, for Copper Assault. And damn, i saw again how her last words were basically about how we'd use Selene like we used her... and then she realizes that Selene is LUNA, and she calls us mother, which VERY REASONABLY implies we already brainwashed her to follow us.

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Not only that, but implies that Velvet has been brainwashing Luna in her secret basement for months while keeping it a secret from the cult and the Master, long before the cult split up and that Velvet had been betraying them all all along. The Most Precious Jewel of the Heavens indeed.

Of course, that is in fact literally what happened. The only missing piece of mitigating information is Velvet's own Lima Syndrome.

And then there is the other one. Because you might tell yourself that you raised her, but oh no… that is not the right word, is it? You did not raise her. You groomed her. You molded her fragile, broken mind into something useful to you, and then you told yourself that she forgave you out of love. Your own little moon, who you stole away, and damn the world and the sun.

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[Pittauro]

Of course, that is in fact literally what happened. The only missing piece of mitigating information is Velvet's own Lima Syndrome.

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I mean, her parents LITERALLY asked us to take care of Luna, so there's that too.

Also how we opposed the cult on moral principles rather than JUST because we wished for Glory.

But she'd have no way to realize that. From the outside, you quite literally can't tell.

 

[Greymere]

Kinda funny but Velvet's AP is mostly burnt on Help Cadance on turn 23, and will be mostly burnt on Smiles on turn 24. But if we reach turn 25 as our "This is our final turn" turn our best move is to spend that Moth 4 reagent we've got sitting in our inventory on a Moth Influence and spend the entire rest of the turn on making Torn Risen for Winter levels.

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Could also summon a Windigo or two. Sure they're destructive and we don't really have a use for them 'after' All In, if there is an after, but we can just banish them once we finish clearing it.

 

[Mage_of_Eyes]

Here's a little sketch! The weird thing behind her collar is supposed to be the knife, probably should be more visible after I upscale it a bit.
My third time drawing this particular drawing because I keep losing these

Spoiler: You have failed Equestria

I wanted to put a joke about her having half-chaps because she's from horse police, but it's "mounted police" in English

The preview doesn't load for me, but the link does.

 

[dcoconeo]

When you have a warning that scrying/scouting is difficult and/or dangerous, and possibly both, I would rather not risk it.

What if we trip the Forge defenses from The Old Days after scrying it?

 

[Mage_of_Eyes]

If scrying is dangerous, I imagine that going without scouting is even more dangerous.

 

[dcoconeo]

If scrying is dangerous, I imagine that going without scouting is even more dangerous.

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It's obviously possible or the QM would not have recommended we go down this route; and how would you even scout without triggering the exact same problems hinted in All-In?

 

[Greymere]

When you have a warning that scrying/scouting is difficult and/or dangerous, and possibly both, I would rather not risk it.

What if we trip the Forge defenses from The Old Days after scrying it?

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The warning is also written with the fact that you can send someone to scout in person rather than scry it in mind, not that we've ever actually used that option. I imagine scouting in person would be both difficult and dangerous, but I think scrying is more likely to just be difficult.

That being said, I'm not necessarily entirely on board with scrying All In, mostly because I'm rather dubious of getting any real benefit out of it, but we'll see how we decide to cross that bridge when we get to it.

 

[ses]

IF: Bureau on Quarry w/ Selene + Mareinette (Introduce SH), DoA + Cherenkolt (Grail) on City (w/ artifacts), Get Your Hooves Dirty

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If we're committing to Velvet going to one of the expeditions, we might consider being a little inefficient with Mareinette's general bonus to do

Bureau+Velvet+Selene on Choked City
Axe+Mareinette+Cherenkolt(SH, artifact mode) on Quarry

How does that compare? Velvet+Bureau is already so incredibly stacked due to Velvet bringing 33 non-Edge lore levels and SEVEN rerolls, plus Selene's two rerolls. It might be able to afford to lose Mareinette's +40 general bonus. Meanwhile Quarry gets lots of Forge, Heart, Grail, and Winter levels for curse resistance, social encounters, and whatever forge nonsense is called for in a cursed quarry.

Alternatively it could do something like

Bureau+Velvet+Axe+Heartifact on Quarry
Mareinette+Selene+Cherenkolt(SH, Artifact) on Choked City?

Axe's general bonus plus Velvet's lores and rerolls should crush Quarry easily, and spending 2 Selene AP on accompanying to a Long expedition doesn't actually cost anything, since Axe is exactly as good at summoning a MITL as Selene is, so -1 Selene AP for +1 Axe AP isn't a loss. Axe gets the additional optionality of making wrong keys instead, while Selene can still Soothe the Night.

Wait, no this configuration means no Name general bonus for Quarry social rolls. Drat. Unless Smiles gets roped in as well. But at that point just doing Mareinette/Velvet/Selene/Bureau and Axe/Cherenkolt seems better.


Plan 1:
Mareinette/Axe/Cherenkolt: 620 total bonus with 3 rerolls, 300 bits, weakest link is 65 moth. Good anti-curse coverage with 75 winter total
Bureau/Velvet/Selene(+Heartifact): 515 total bonus with 9 rerolls. weakest link is 50 grail with reroll or 60 heart flat. 60 heart probably isn't good enough anti-curse to do Quarry

Plan 2:
Axe/Cherenkolt: 545 bonus with 2 rerolls, 45 grail flat is a scary weak link.
Bureau/Velvet/Mareinette/Selene: 660 total with 11 rerolls. Utterly absurd overkill. Weakest link is SH/Forge both at +70 with reroll.

Yeah axe+cherenkolt+artifacts just seems a little thin with 3 flat 65's and that very scary flat 45 on social hurdles. Bureau/Velvet/Selene seems stronger than that due to having so many rerolls even if its total bonus is lower. And it doesn't have such a bad weak link.

 

[ses]

Oh. We should just spend the 190 bits on making the Forge 6 reagent ourselves. The velvet AP spent on it is counterbalanced by Mareinette not needing to do anything expedition related and being free to Help Cadance if we sent Axe, Cherenkolt, and Selene with the Bureau to the Quarry. Velvet can Moth and Grail sacrament, purify the Forge 6 reagent, and do 4 Help Cadance AP while Mareinette does 1 Help Cadance. Same as the 5 Help Cadance AP we'd probably do with Velvet AP if Mareinette is doing an expedition.

Axe, Selene, Cherenkolt(Grail) with the Bureau is +55 to social hurdles if we dissect the Husk and introduce Grail, knock, and SH this turn. +100 to winter(!), but only +65 to Heart. Granted we could choose to introduce Heart instead of SH with our director action. Would be safer against curses. Of course we still always have the option of bringing Velvet anyway to be absolutely damn sure it succeeds.

 

[DelightedOne]

Oh. We should just spend the 190 bits on making the Forge 6 reagent ourselves.

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...

Really, now? After all of that?

Better late than never I guess. And maybe that means Mayor Mare won't croak(believe me when I say that we will regret this if it happens).

Granted we could choose to introduce Heart instead of SH with our director action. Would be safer against curses.

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If the Husk really introduces Grail, then Heart is a must. Cadance is going to need any boost she can to deal with Celestia, assuming we will be able to have her access the Bureau's Library of course.

 

[Wise Wolf]

Better late than never I guess. And maybe that means Mayor Mare won't croak(believe me when I say that we will regret this if it happens).

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... Why will we regret it? I mean, I'm confident that we won't be HAPPY with that outcome, but it seems like much smaller stakes than, say, having one too few Celestia actions for a possible terrible Cadence roll.

 

[DelightedOne]

... Why will we regret it? I mean, I'm confident that we won't be HAPPY with that outcome, but it seems like much smaller stakes than, say, having one too few Celestia actions for a possible terrible Cadence roll.

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It is a Wolf cult working, it is implicit. Just because it is smaller stakes doesn't mean it isn't important too.

And 5 actions is a bit too much, 4 total should be fine.

 

[Shaper47]

2 Mareinette actions, free social and free Comissoner action on Celestia.

Save our personal ap for stuff like moth mastery or befriending Smiles.

Smile and Forge son can do Choked City with the Bureau.

 

[ses]

If Selene spends her 3rd AP on The Calling of Influence(Heart), sacrificing that Heart 1 reagent we've had sitting around for a year, that's 1d100+30(general bonus)+30(heartifact)+10(reagent)=1d100+70. That's +27 Heart as an average for the entirety of Turns 23 and 24(8% chance of +10, 30% chance of +20, 40% chance of +30, 21% chance of An Imminence), meaning that she'd have it for next 2 turns, including whatever expedition we send the Constables+Selene on next turn. Literally slightly better on average than a Heart 5 artifact, and therefore much better than doing something like adding Smiles just for Heart levels.

With Axe, Selene, and Cherenkolt(Grail) consulting for the Bureau and Velvet dissecting the Husk and making the Forge 6 reagent herself while Mareinette covers the spent velvet AP with a Help Cadance of her own, that's a total of:

+55 Grail
+110 Knock with 2 rerolls
+75 Secret Histories
+85 Moth with reroll
+80 Lantern
+90 Forge with reroll
+92 Heart on average
+100 Winter(!)
and of course, uh, 3 Names(or name-equivalent alicorn), two of whom have Edge levels for any combat hurdles rendering those utterly non-issues.

That seems... really strong. More than strong enough to let Velvet take the guaranteed +2 Lore Introductions and not risk losing the Husk to Eclipse. Curses wont be able to touch this team, Secret Histories being introduced means that they'll probably not miss out on too much loot, and the only lore that is a weak link is the +55 Grail, which isn't really too scary. It's more than high enough that we wont get hardstuck on a hurdle and the rest of our lores are extremely high.

Plus having Axe Consult with the Bureau instead of go on a long expedition the normal way means that she only needs to spend 1 AP, and therefore this plan gains an Axe AP compared to double-expedition. This is important because Axe is exactly as good as Selene is at summoning Mares in the Light

Selene: Soothe the Night
Selene: Consult
Selene: Calling of Heart(sacrifice heart 1 reagent)
Axe: Consult
Axe: Summon a MITL
Smiles: Summon a MITL
Cherenkolt: Consult
Mareinette: Help Cadance

Because we dont have to pay Long expedition ticket prices, that means we have all the bits in the world to pay for MITLs and Manehattan expeditions. The MITLs thus summoned can either help with getting +2 Cover Your Bases paid for or acting as taxis for taking a Name to the other Manehattan expeditions to do multiple of them this turn.

It's really hard to justify not making the reagent ourselves due to Mareinette being able to cover the lost AP with her not being needed in a 1-expedition plan.

 

[Shaper47]

I highly doubt that a consult Bureau ap suddenly means that long expeditions with the Bureau only cost one ap.

 

[DelightedOne]

I highly doubt that a consult Bureau ap suddenly means that long expeditions with the Bureau only cost one ap.

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That is actually kinda how it works.

Second, I also cannot let you "have your cake and eat it" for the low low price of a single Commissioner Action of "get your hoofs dirty" or "Consult for the Bureau."
So, although we will still iron out the details better later, I can say that if the Constables engage in an expedition and you want in (and I say this because we are all eyeing those LONG expeditions, which in-world take weeks), then most of your efforts will be focused on that, and you might not benefit other things as much.

But that's a conversation for later. "Getting your hoofs dirty" and "Consulting" will still be more efficient than spending a full personal action just to join an expedition, so it will be a balancing game.

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All summoned Names, and Selene, may now use the action "Consult for the Lunar Bureau." If picked, that character will aid the Bureau for the duration of that turn in whatever way they are best suited, narratively or mechanically. Names and Selene will only be available for Bureau raids/assaults during said turn if they are "Consulting".

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We can go to a long expedition by getting our hoofs dirty and send Names if they are consulting. It is just less efficient than making the full effort of AP, however it IS better than spending personal AP.

 

[Greymere]

I'd still rather have Velvet accompany the Bureau herself. She is just that strong of a force multiplier, with Level 4+ and rerolls across nearly the entire board except Heart. And we've already seen with Tall Tale that Velvet simply Being Involved with Bureau things gives her opportunities to introduce the Lores to them, and that was when she was only joining in last-minute on the raid itself rather than the whole month's worth of effort; like at the very least I would expect the same sort of "go all out, +1 Bureau Lore" that we saw at Tall Tale. The potential extra Bureau levels from studying the husk just don't matter when Velvet herself is on the expedition, providing twice the Lore levels that they'd get from having Grail/Knock introduced to them via the dissection, plus for every other Lore on top. It also means that Selene's AP would be free to do something more useful than just Calling an Influence that she's likely not even going to use next turn.

If you'd like a proper outline, then here you go.

Follower Phase
(Detectives) Look into Windy Flakes?
(Constables) Expedition: The Quarry of Yuxtabai
(Commissioner) Get your hooves dirty
(Director) Heart

(Selene) Soothe the night
(Selene) Consult
(Selene) Help Smiles
(DoA) Consult
(DoA) Summon a MitL
(Smiles) Summon a MitL
(Smiles-Free) Expedition: Visiting a Competitor
(Mareinette) Honored Guest: Mayor Mare
(Baldomare) Lantern lesson
(Cherenkolt) Consult (Recalibrate to Grail)
(Jade) Study Moth 3 artifact
COVER YOUR BASES (-5 Follower AP, +2 Velvet AP --- Risen, Rarity, Filthy, Servants, Fluttercomet)

Velvet Phase (4 + 2 AP)
(AotL) Secret Histories? (for Windy investigation?)
(Knock) Ashen Wastes
(Grail) Spoiled Rich
(Forge) Forge 4
- Moth Sacrament (Spoiled Rich)
- Grail Sacrament (Prisoner)
- Purify Forge 4 reagent
- Help Cadance x4 (3 AP + Social)

Total Cost: -350 bits (-190 Reagent & Purification, -110 MitL x2, -25 Expedition)

Could also, alternatively, have Selene summoning a MitL and/or have the DoA go on one of the Manehattan expeditions instead. It doesn't break our budget limit either way. We could also not summon any MitLs at all if ppl are leary about suspicion risks, and aim for clearing all the Manehattan expeditions instead.


The Quarry of Yuxtabai Bonuses:
Bureau + DoA + Selene + Velvet + Cherenkolt (Grail)
All Artifacts, Study Moth 3 Artifact, Introduce Heart

Knock: +85 (+50 Base, +30 DoA, +25 Velvet, +20 Selene)
Moth: +105 (+50 Base, +20 Selene, +20 Velvet, +15 Artifact)
Lantern: +100 (+50 Base, +20 Velvet, +20 Artifact, +10 Bureau)
Winter: +115 (+50 Base, +20 Selene, +20 Velvet, +20 Artifact, +5 Bureau)
Forge: +110 (+50 Base, +30 Cherenkolt, +20 Velvet, +10 Bureau)
Edge: +110 (+50 Base, +25 Velvet, +20 Selene, +15 DoA)
Grail: +65 (+30 Base, +20 Velvet, +15 Cherenkolt)
Heart: +90 (+50 Base, +15 Velvet, +15 Artifact, +10 Bureau)
Secret Histories: +85 (+50 Base, +20 Velvet, +15 Artifact)

Grail/Heart are our weak points here (surprise surprise). Which one is the weakest point depends entirely on which Lore we introduce to the Bureau, since the success chances of un-Bureau'd Grail/Heart at DCs 100/150 aren't actually too far apart from each other. I decided to go for Heart here, because curses.