On a Pale Horse (Umamusume/Youjo Senki)

[Kelenas]

"Those who need to demand respect are unworthy of it."

[snip]

"Whereas your greatest achievement was accomplished on your knees."

[snip]

"If worse comes to worst, likely few people would miss her."

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This scene amused me more than it probably should have, with Shirogane going from verbal murder to contemplating murder-murder.

 

[77coke]

How are gate placement decide because it seem like an easy case of retaliation if after a complaint she keep getting outside gate while not notable for other racer for how little they run for Sherio that like statically impossible.

 

[Impstar]

How are gate placement decide because it seem like an easy case of retaliation if after a complaint she keep getting outside gate while not notable for other racer for how little they run for Sherio that like statically impossible.

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Assuming it's supposed to be random, it's statistically unlikely but not impossible. Still, if it keeps happening it should be brought up again.

Of course it might not be random, in which case I have no idea.

 

[Melmar]

Shiro really needs to find her fire on the track it looks like cuz it's starting to get to her. If she doesn't, she'll end up settling on something else she's good at and living a dull and dispassionate life like the Salaryman did. She's definitely got the fire as horrible racist bureaucrat lady learned but, she's still not using it to win.

Iirc she's been holding back out of a subconscious belief that the honse who charges in first dies. By the sound of the translation for that bit of Polish that popped into her head, her big thing will be her overcoming that fear and charging ahead.

 

[Stracio]

inb4 Shirogane is pushed beyond her breaking point and triggers her Zone during the upcoming Sprint. We know her poor placements is getting to her. I wonder what she'd think after truly running with all she has for the first time?

 

[Jadalier Rune]

I usually read this story on Ao3 but. You know.

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Yeah, it's gonna be a long while before site will be back up.

 

[Impstar]

I don't think Shiro has been pushed quite far enough to reach the zone yet. That requires more than just some abstract frustration. Two examples from the Cinderella Gray anime.

Spoiler

Tamamo Cross unlocked the zone during a race that would finally prove that she was the strongest racer in Japan. Something she's wanted to prove and be since she was a small child. She hit her limits, the same limits that would have taken that dream from her. So she broke through. Oguri had one last chance to prove herself to her rival. There was no next chance for her, and even then Oguri had been on the cusp of it for some time.

I think Shiro is setting off on the path to reaching that point, but it won't be next race I think. At the moment, for Shiro, it is merely frustrating. And that isn't enough on its own. She needs to hit a real make or break it moment. Even failing to enter the classic races I'm not sure would be enough; her career is going to be a long one (or at least it can be a long one, if she's so inclined); missing out on these races is just a speed bump when it comes down to it. A lot of missed opportunity for money, but it's not like she's in desperate need for that.

 

[Tonyloco]

I like that she's getting frustrated at losing, that's expected despite her denials She's very competitive and she's too good at lying at herself.

About match fixing, that actually makes sense, it can go from a jealous racist Karen to the yakuza or any other betting group using her for races.

If we think about it she tends to race a lot, and a lot of those races get disrupted by her racing style, the problem is that if allowed she will got for the top place and keep doing what should be a suicide run for everyone else but her.

So make sure she always gets one of the sides, and she will disrupt almost every racer as she get to the lead from the very beginning.
Those who bet would start betting on her if she gets second place a lot, so trying to make it harder for her to get that place makes sense, not to mention that she tends to burn any racer that's ahead of her.

Shiro hitting the sanbags

Is that a Depmsey roll ??

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[Impstar]

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if the entire first part of the classic season was a wash for Shiro. Something that really makes it clear that to accomplish what she wants to accomplish, she needs to lock in in a way that's different from what she's been doing. To focus on training herself in different ways as well. She would definitely not be the first uma to have had an underwhelming classic year that really picked up in senior. Heck, Tamamo Cross had a notoriously mixed classic year before taking it home in senior.

 

[77coke]

Assuming it's supposed to be random, it's statistically unlikely but not impossible. Still, if it keeps happening it should be brought up again.

Of course it might not be random, in which case I have no idea.

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At some point unlikely become impossible like let say it 50/50 for inner and outside gate and count by the number of race. 50%, 25%, 12.5%, 6.25%, 3.12%, 1.66%, 0.83%, 0.41%, 0.2%, 0.1% and that only 10 race I imagine Sherio is running around this many a season. like 1 thru 5 ya your unluckly but it possible but like affter a certain point fan are going to ask is she just that unlucky or is there some racism/favoritism in match fixing that is assuming the spot are random and not one say betting odds or somthing else.

 

[Impstar]

At some point unlikely become impossible like let say it 50/50 for inner and outside gate and count by the number of race. 50%, 25%, 12.5%, 6.25%, 3.12%, 1.66%, 0.83%, 0.41%, 0.2%, 0.1% and that only 10 race I imagine Sherio is running around this many a season. like 1 thru 5 ya your unluckly but it possible but like affter a certain point fan are going to ask is she just that unlucky or is there some racism/favoritism in match fixing that is assuming the spot are random and not one say betting odds or somthing else.

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Oh yes I was referring to just so far, since it seems like she's only been in a handful of races since the altercation with that woman.

 

[macdjord]

At some point unlikely become impossible like let say it 50/50 for inner and outside gate and count by the number of race. 50%, 25%, 12.5%, 6.25%, 3.12%, 1.66%, 0.83%, 0.41%, 0.2%, 0.1% and that only 10 race I imagine Sherio is running around this many a season. like 1 thru 5 ya your unluckly but it possible but like affter a certain point fan are going to ask is she just that unlucky or is there some racism/favoritism in match fixing that is assuming the spot are random and not one say betting odds or somthing else.

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Unlikely is never the same as impossible. Like, I get your point, but 0.1% or even 0.00000000000000000000000000000000001% is not the same as 0%, which is what 'impossible' actually means*.

* Actually, technically, a 0% chance only means something is 'virtually impossible'. Being actually impossible is a stronger claim. E.g. if you have a device that, every time you push a button, outputs a random real number between 0 and 1, pushing the button and getting exactly 0.5 is a virtual impossibility: it is absolutely possible, but there are infinite real number between 0 and 1, so the chance of it happening is 0%. On the other hand, getting 1.5 is a true impossibility since that is not even an option.

 

[77coke]

The thing is unlike with true random there are people behind the scene that can and as we see will mess with position like if it was a simple drop all name ball into a machine and spin before 5 minute before each race people cant complain about foul play but when someone decide the positioning human bai for average will make them hesitant to do something like the 5th outer gate in a row while raw chance would not care for bad press. which is what im wonder what determine gate placement we know it not a first come first serve as Tanya would never be so late and then no one would give Tanya sympathy. So it has to be something out of the racer control. but it also not pure random chance because well we have the soft sabotage arc right now so Im wonder what public side randomness is there or is it all the commity has decide thru it behind door randomness.

 

[DeathFrown]

I mean Waffles literally just said that no one else noticed what happened and Shiro isn't going to bring it up, so that is pretty unlikely.

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Heh, I like to think of this community rooting for Shirogane as the fans that "noticed" what everybody else missed. We'll carry the secret to the grave Shiro, you ran great!

 

[Mentos]

Heh, I like to think of this community rooting for Shirogane as the fans that "noticed" what everybody else missed. We'll carry the secret to the grave Shiro, you ran great!

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Digi-tan noticed for sure

 

[ThisisAbsurd]

One of my joys is seeing how the announcers continue to stumble on Shirogane's name in new and interesting ways.

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As someone who also has a ridiculously common first name, but an impossible to pronounce last name, I am very sympathetic to Shirogane here, and outright annoyed at the announcers- their only fucking job is to say those names correctly, and they're supposed to practice til they can do them perfectly. I attended Japanese 1-3 in college, and was the only student only referred to by first name, because the Native Japanese professor couldn't say my last name at all and gave up on the second week of trying.

 

[selonianth]

She is very OP, just not in a way that lets her win each race.

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Arguably in a way that hasn't let her win any races with any other Tracen students involved.

 

[arky4444]

The pain in her leg was only eclipsed by the sting of failure in her chest.

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Grass Wonder couldn't avoid Fate.

"I'm glad you didn't lose your footing."

Grass blinked, startled out of her spiraling thoughts by Shirogane suddenly breaking the silence. Her teammate had helped her to the infirmary and had stayed nearby ever since, though not getting in the way of any of the staff. Now that the doctor had pulled Trainer-san to the corner to talk about more details, the two umas were alone.

"If you had fallen, you might have been trampled by the runners behind us," Shirogane continued, taking her lack of response as asking for more explanation.

"I don't think they would do that," Grass coughed, her throat dry from exertion and frustration.

"They might not have had enough time to react one way or another."

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Speculation for the future: it is entirely possible for Shirogane to run three G1s back-to-back-to-back - Shuka Sho (10/25/98) to Autumn Tenno Sho (11/1/98) to Kikuka Sho (11/8/98). It wouldn't be wise, because Shirogane knows that she's going to get smoked at 2000m against her strong seniors, but the schedule allows it. She would be able to get in if she wins a G2 or G1 beforehand, based on the records of the IRL 1998 field.

Imagine: Silence Suzuka runs in the lead with Shirogane in P2, just like their practice runs. Shirogane and Offside Trap have already raced against each other at the G3 Tanabata Sho (7/11/98, T2000m), with Offside Trap winning that one, but this time it looks like it's going to go the other way. Silence Suzuka breaks her leg and starts to fall. Shirogane comes up to catch her, then immediately princess-carries her to Medical. Both DNF. Offside Trap wins their first G1, just like IRL, and feels like absolute crap to win this way.

Shirogane paused for a second, before turning to look at her square on. "Have you ever considered how odd it is, to have the losers of a race sing and dance to some peppy song about achieving your dreams as the backup dancers for the winner, usually after having their own dreams crushed, or at least set back?"

"You know that's more of a Central thing than NRA, right?" Though Steady had to admit it hadn't been that fun the times she had to go through it.

"It surprises me somewhat that there isn't more resentment over this arrangement, especially since being front and center during the performance also would improve marketability, which is already improved by winning."

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Lampshading lore for the Grand Live scenario in the Umamusume game. Where's Light Hello when you need her?

Standings update!

At this time (post Hochi Hai Yonsai), the Class A standings are:
Shirogane Orzel - 4 wins / 16 starts, 16-4-10-0; previous races + G2 Yayoi Sho (3/8/98, Ch. 23, 5th place), G2 Hochi Hai Yonsai (3/15/98, Ch. 23, 4th place); estimated winnings: 175.85 (previous sum) + 5.40 (5th place G2) + 7.80 (4th place G2) = 189.05 million yen.
Grass Wonder - 4 wins / 5 starts, 5-4-1-0; previous races + G2 Yayoi Sho (3/8/98, Ch. 23, 2nd place); winnings = 114.69 (previous sum) + 22.30 (2nd place G2) = 136.99 million yen.
Special Week - 3 wins / 4 starts, 4-3-1-0, previous races + G2 Yayoi Sho (3/8/98, Ch. 23, 1st place); winnings = 52.79 (previous sum) + 55.05 (1st place G2) = 107.84 million yen.
King Halo - 3 wins / 5 starts, 5-3-0-2; previous races + G2 Yayoi Sho (3/8/98, Ch. 23, 3rd place); winnings = 56.83 (previous sum) + 14.15 (3rd place G2) = 70.98 million yen.
El Condor Pasa - 3 wins / 3 starts; winnings = 55.41 million yen. NO CHANGE.
Seiun Sky - 2 wins / 3 starts, 3-2-0-0; previous races + G2 Yayoi Sho (3/8/98, Ch. 23, 4th place); winnings = 25.27 (previous sum) + 8.10 (4th place G2) = 33.37 million yen.
Tsurumaru Tsuyoshi - yet to debut; 0 yen.

Divergences from IRL:
Grass Wonder: 2nd at the G2 Yayoi Sho instead of ineligible.
King Halo: 3rd at the G3 Radio Tampa Hai instead of 2nd.
Seiun Sky: 4th at the G2 Yayoi Sho instead of 2nd.

El Condor Pasa is going to run the upcoming G2 Spring Stakes on 3/22/98 and win it, which will be another divergence, while Shirogane takes her last stab at getting into the Oka Sho.

Random thought:

And this is without winning any graded races so far too.

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I'm going to laugh if Shirogane's first graded race win ends up being a G1, probably the Yushun Himba.