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Vote Thread for Ack's Omake Corner

Discussion in 'General' started by Ack, Feb 18, 2015.

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  1. nobodez

    nobodez Bringer of Context

    Joined:
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    [X] Really Bad End - 6
    [X] Confrontation II - 5
    [X] Alea Iacta Est -4
    [X] War Games - 3
    [X] Recoil - 2
    [X] Wyvern - 1
    [] All Alone - 0
    [] Trump Card - 0

    I'll have to wait for Jim's spreadsheet post to figure out just how long I'll likely be voting for Really Bad End and Confrontation II until they reset (the two most recent of my votes receiving no points).
     
    Atropa likes this.
  2. Sinner_sb

    Sinner_sb Experienced.

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    [X] NSW - 6
    [X] I, Panacea - 5
    [X] Security! - 4
    [X] Trump Card - 3
    [X] Hostage Situation - 2
    [X] Meet the Heberts - 1
     
    Jim Starluck likes this.
  3. WindCall12

    WindCall12 Well worn.

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    [X] I, Panacea - 6
    [X] Meet the Heberts - 5
    [X] Hostage Situation - 4
    [X] Alea Iacta Est - 3
    [X] Recoil - 2
    [X] Wyvern - 1
     
    Jim Starluck likes this.
  4. Jim Starluck

    Jim Starluck CO, ICS Vanguard

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    I don't think that's likely. AIE has been earning an average of 124 votes every round and hasn't dropped below 100 for the last 7 rounds; MTH is only managing 64 and has never managed greater than 80.

    So Alea Iacta Est has sewn up Vote 72 pretty thoroughly; Meet the Heberts and I, Panacea will very nearly tie for second-place. By Vote 73, I, Panacea will almost certainly have pulled ahead to win by about 40 votes. Meet the Heberts will have to wait for Vote 74.

    Wyvern looks to have Vote 75 in the bag. Vote 76 could be a close one; current predictions put Recoil about 50 votes ahead of One More Trigger, but that's far enough out for things to shift significantly between now and then. Whichever loses will take Vote 77.

    Vote 78 is another potential upset; Confrontation II and Slippery Slope are still being forecast as neck-and-neck there. We'll see how long that lasts. Vote 79 goes to the loser of that contest.

    Votes 80 and 81 also look like good possibilities for upsets. Hostage Situation is currently penciled in to win 80, but AIE, Really Bad End and Trump Card will all be relatively close behind it. Alea Iacta Est is similarly winning Vote 81 on paper, but Trump Card, Wyvern, Security! and Really Bad End will all be nipping at its heels. That far out, anything could happen.

    Beyond Vote 81, I've added a new feature to the predictions spreadsheet: Rounds to Win! It tries to predict how many more rounds it will take a story to win, based on current predictions. Note this is counting rounds past Vote 81, not from right now. Currently, it looks like so:

    Alea Iacta Est: 9 rounds
    All Alone: 9 rounds
    Bait & Switch: 24 rounds
    Confrontation II: 21 rounds
    Danny & Taylor: 21 rounds
    Hostage Situation: 24 rounds
    I, Panacea: 4 rounds
    Junior Hero: 10 rounds
    Meet the Heberts: 11 rounds
    MirrorVerse: 8 rounds
    NSW: 8 rounds
    Nemesis: 16 rounds
    One More Trigger: 14 rounds
    Really Bad End: 6 rounds
    Recoil: 5 rounds
    Security!: 3 rounds
    Slippery Slope: 20 rounds
    Trump Card: 1 round
    War Games: 8 rounds
    Wyvern: 2 rounds

    Again: this is measured from Vote 81, which is still 10 votes out. Do not take these numbers as gospel; this is an even rougher estimation than my other predictions.


    Accuracy this time was 97.7%, with an average of about 8 votes off from prior predictions.

    Most accurate in both proportional votes and total count was One More Trigger, which came in exactly on the money at 100% accuracy.

    Least accurate proportionally was recent winner All Alone; it only earned 5 votes more than anticipated, but at its current count that made for a measly 91.94% accuracy. Least accurate in raw votes was Wyvern, which somehow managed to come in 31 votes behind its prediction -- so far behind, in fact, that Alea Iacta Est has finally knocked it off its most-votes-per-round throne!

    From the moment it joined the voting, Wyvern has commanded the most votes per round by a wide margin. AIE was its closest competition, but it's always been well behind; averaging about 31 votes back, never coming closer than 11 behind. In Vote 71, however, AIE managed to earn 127 votes to Wyvern's 126 -- 1 vote more!

    This is Wyvern's weakest showing to date, folks, and it may herald a major change in wins if it isn't able to pull back into the lead. Stay tuned to future predictions & analysis for more information!


    Average vote-earners are currently as follows:


    1: Wyvern - 155 - down 2
    2: Alea Iacta Est - 124
    3: Recoil - 117 - Up 1
    4: Trump Card -111
    5: I, Panacea - 101 - up 1
    6: Security! - 78 - down 1
    7: Meet the Heberts - 64 - down 1
    8: One More Trigger - 63
    9: All Alone - 57
    10: TIED! - 50
    - NSW
    - Slippery Slope
    - up 1
    11: Confrontation II - 49
    12: Hostage Situation - 45
    13: War Games - 44 - up 2
    14: MirrorVerse - 35 - up 1
    15: Nemesis - 27 - down 1
    16: Danny & Taylor - 22
    17: Really Bad End - 21 - up 1
    18: Junior Hero - 20 - down 1
    19: Bait & Switch - 19



    And for my own votes:

    [X] Meet the Heberts - 6
    [X] NSW - 5
    [X] War Games - 4
    [X] One More Trigger - 3
    [X] Security! - 2
    [X] Recoil - 1
     
    Navrin and Atropa like this.
  5. ArbaletShot

    ArbaletShot Know what you're doing yet?

    Joined:
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    [X] I, Panacea - 6
    [X] Meet the Heberts - 5
    [X] Hostage Situation - 4
    [X] Alea Iacta Est - 3
    [X] Recoil - 2
    [X] Wyvern - 1
     
    Jim Starluck likes this.
  6. vyor

    vyor Oh that's cute

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  7. vyor

    vyor Oh that's cute

    Joined:
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    [X] I, Panacea - 6
    [X] Meet the Heberts - 5
    [X] Trump Card - 4
    [X] Alea Iacta Est - 3
    [X] Recoil - 2
    [X] Wyvern - 1
     
    Jim Starluck likes this.
  8. EJH

    EJH Know what you're doing yet?

    Joined:
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    217
    Likes Received:
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    [X] One More Trigger - 6
    [X] I, Panacea - 5
    [X] War Games - 4
    [X] Wyvern - 3
    [X] Security! - 2
    [X] Trump Card - 1
     
    Anaja and Atropa like this.
  9. Alayne

    Alayne The Reader

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    [X] Alea Iacta Est - 6
    [X] Wyvern - 5
    [X] I, Panacea - 4
    [X] One More Trigger - 3
    [X] Nemesis - 2
    [X] Slippery Slope - 1
     
    Anaja likes this.
  10. ViperhawkZ

    ViperhawkZ Emperor of Kanata

    Joined:
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    800
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    [X] Slippery Slope - 6
    [X] Nemesis - 5
    [X] Trump Card - 4
    [X] Alea Iacta Est - 3
    [X] War Games - 2
    [X] Wyvern - 1

    EDIT: JimStarluck, your Vote Differences page seems to have gone a bit wonky.
     
    TheVoid22222, Navrin, Ack and 2 others like this.
  11. Chase92

    Chase92 Know what you're doing yet?

    Joined:
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    [] Hypnosis Idea - 13
    [X] Meet the Heberts - 6
    [X] NSW - 5
    [X] Really Bad End - 4
    [X] Confrontation II - 3
    [X] Hostage Situation - 2
    [X] Wyvern - 1
     
    Jim Starluck likes this.
  12. Richael

    Richael Know what you're doing yet?

    Joined:
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    Messages:
    143
    Likes Received:
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    [X] Recoil - 6
    [X] Security! - 5
    [X] I, Panacea - 4
    [X] Alea Iacta Est - 3
    [X] Trump Card - 2
    [X] Junior Hero - 1
     
  13. Suzushiro Aoi

    Suzushiro Aoi The Blood Queen

    Joined:
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    Messages:
    82
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    [X] Wyvern - 6
    [X] I, Panacea - 5
    [X] Recoil - 4
    [X] Slippery Slope - 3
    [X] Alea Iacta Est - 2
    [X] NSW - 1
     
  14. edale

    edale Versed in the lewd.

    Joined:
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    [X] I, Panacea - 6
    [X] Slippery Slope - 5
    [X] Confrontation II - 4
    [X] Security! - 3
    [X] Hostage Situation - 2
    [X] Alea Iacta Est - 1


    :(

    *edit- Vote changed
     
    Last edited: Oct 6, 2015
    ViperhawkZ and Ack like this.
  15. Atropa

    Atropa Getting sticky.

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    [X] War Games - 6
    [X] Meet the Heberts - 5
    [X] Wyvern - 4
    [X] Alea Iacta Est - 3
    [X] Trump Card - 2
    [X] I, Panacea - 1
     
    Jim Starluck likes this.
  16. Anaja

    Anaja I trust you know where the happy button is?

    Joined:
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    [X] MirrorVerse - 6
    [X] All Alone - 5
    [X] One More Trigger - 4
    [X] Security - 3
    [X] Alea Iacta Est - 2
    [X] Wyvern - 1
     
    GW_Yoda likes this.
  17. Ack

    Ack (Verified Ratbag) (Unverified Great Old One)

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    Yeah, well, manual tallying means that NSW comes after Nemesis, whereas QQbot puts it in front. So I've swapped it until I can get a reliable tally going,
    Thanks.
     
    Chase92, Navrin and vyor like this.
  18. GladiusLucix

    GladiusLucix Versed in the lewd.

    Joined:
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    [X] Meet the Heberts - 6
    [X] Wyvern - 5
    [X] War Games - 4
    [X] Alea Iacta Est - 3
    [X] Danny & Taylor - 2
    [X] Confrontation II - 1
     
    Jim Starluck and Atropa like this.
  19. Navrin

    Navrin Experienced.

    Joined:
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    [X] Wyvern - 6
    [X] Alea Iacta Est - 5
    [X] Nemesis - 4
    [X] Hostage Situation - 3
    [X] Trump Card - 2
    [X] Security! - 1
     
  20. mistfist

    mistfist Protector of Moe

    Joined:
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    [X] Recoil - 6
    [X] Alea Iacta Est - 5
    [X] I, Panacea - 4
    [X] Wyvern - 3
    [X] All Alone - 2
    [X] Security! - 1
     
    GW_Yoda and Anaja like this.
  21. Muroshi9

    Muroshi9 I'm so ronery So ronery So ronery and sadly arone

    Joined:
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    [X] Wyvern - 6
    [X] I, Panacea - 5
    [X] Trump Card - 4
    [X] One More Trigger - 3
    [X] Recoil - 2
    [X] Security! - 1
     
    Anaja likes this.
  22. Pyro Hawk

    Pyro Hawk Unsure if Phoenix or Kitsune

    Joined:
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    [X] War Games - 6
    [X] Wyvern - 5
    [X] MirrorVerse - 4
    [X] One More Trigger - 3
    [X] Confrontation II - 2
    [X] Meet the Heberts - 1
    [] Trump Card
    [] I, Panacea
    [] Recoil
    [] Security!
    [] Alea Iacta Est
    []
     
  23. Angush

    Angush I have no idea what I'm doing

    Joined:
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    Locked in:
    [X] All Alone - 6 (swapped for MirrorVerse with Anaja)
    [X] MirrorVerse - 5 (swapped for All Alone with Snake/Eater)
    [X] Slippery Slope - 4 (swapped for Confrontation II with Edale)
    [X] War Games - 3 (swapped for Confrontation II with Subsider34)

    Changeable:
    [X] Confrontation II - 2
    [X] Meet the Heberts - 1

    Anyone want to make a long-term vote swap arrangement? As in, I vote for something you want, you give the same value vote to Confrontation II (preferred) or All Alone, and we do that for the rest of our lives? (or until one of us decides to vote for something else, I guess)
     
    Last edited: Oct 8, 2015
    Snake/Eater, Ack, edale and 3 others like this.
  24. fishbait08

    fishbait08 I trust you know where the happy button is?

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    [X] Confrontation II - 6
    [X] I, Panacea - 5
    [X] Recoil - 4
    [X] One More Trigger - 3
    [X] Security! - 2
    [X] Meet the Heberts - 1
     
    Jim Starluck likes this.
  25. RedX

    RedX Not too sore, are you?

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    [X] War Games - 6
    [X] Recoil - 5
    [X] Alea Iacta Est - 4
    [X] Wyvern - 3
    [X] Confrontation II - 2
    [X] Slippery Slope - 1
     
    Atropa likes this.
  26. Mr. Tebbs

    Mr. Tebbs Not too sore, are you?

    Joined:
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    [X] Wyvern - 6
    [X] Recoil - 5
    [X] I, Panacea - 4
    [X] Security! - 1
    [X] Trump Card - 2
    [X] Alea Iacta Est - 3
     
    Anaja likes this.
  27. moontheir4

    moontheir4 Nothing to see here. Move along.

    Joined:
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    [X] Recoil - 6
    [X] Wyvern - 5
    [X] Trump Card - 4
    [X] One More Trigger - 3
    [X] Bait & Switch - 2
    [X] NSW - 1
     
  28. Sporadic Scribe

    Sporadic Scribe Not too sore, are you?

    Joined:
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    489
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    [X] NSW - 6
    [X] Meet the Heberts - 5
    [X] Danny & Taylor - 4
    [X] One More Trigger - 3
    [X] Hostage Situation - 2
    [X] Bait & Switch - 1
     
    Jim Starluck likes this.
  29. Slayer Anderson

    Slayer Anderson Orthodox Heretic

    Joined:
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    [X] Really Bad End - 6
    [X] Danny & Taylor - 5
    [X] Meet the Heberts - 4
    [X] Trump Card - 3
    [X] Alea Iacta Est - 2
    [X] Wyvern - 1
     
    Jim Starluck likes this.
  30. PathtoReading

    PathtoReading Know what you're doing yet?

    Joined:
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    Messages:
    167
    Likes Received:
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    [X] Trump Card - 6
    [X] Confrontation II - 5
    [X] War Games - 4
    [X] Slippery Slope - 3
    [X] Junior Hero - 2
    [X] All Alone - 1
     
    GW_Yoda and Atropa like this.
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