Vote Thread for Ack's Omake Corner

Anaja - I'd rather pick a small handful of stories I'm sure I'd like to see updated than pick six off the list and potentially find out that my vote helped get one of my low-end choices picked over the ones I was really interested in.

 

Understandable. I've considered the same thing, but an equal trade wouldn't carry that risk. Your higher choices would be getting just as much of an extra push, from me, as what you spent your lower vote on. Just a thought.

 

And also, if the stories (s)he votes for typically get a low number of votes(I haven't actually looked, so I don't know) and yours get high numbers of votes, it would probably be quite beneficial for him/her. It would only make a slight difference to how quickly your higher-voted stories get updated, but could potentially increase his/hers by something dramatic, like an extra 25%.

Then again, that's just if (s)he voted for low-ranked stories and you vote for high-ranked stories. And my logic could be wrong, but I think it makes sense...

Edit: Well, I don't think Slippery Slope gets that many votes (not sure about War Games), and you seem to be voting for some quite high-ranked stories (*cough* Alea Iacta Est *cough*, but please don't stop voting for that), so it should work out if that somehow got worked into a trade.

 

The only story that I am asking people to vote for is MirrorVerse, and that is one of the lowest voted stories of the bunch. Some people campaigning for it has moved it up a bit, but it is still pretty low.

 

[X] Confrontation II - 6
[X] Hostage Situation - 5
[X] NSW - 4
[X] Bait & Switch - 3
[X] Meet the Heberts - 2
[X] All Alone - 1

 

[X] Slippery Slope - 6
[X] Wyvern - 5
[X] War Games - 4
[X] Trump Card - 3
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 2
[X] All Alone - 1

 

[X] Recoil - 6
[X] One More Trigger - 5
[X] Security! - 4
[X] I, Panacea - 3
[X] All Alone - 2
[X] War Games - 1

 

[X] War Games - 6
[X] Junior Hero - 5
[X] I, Panacea - 4
[X] Security! - 2
[X] Recoil - 1

Locked:
Swapped for War Games with Angush
[X] Confrontation II - 3

 

Oh, wow. How the heck did I manage to miss this all of yesterday?

Mmm... I wouldn't be so sure of that.

The predictions currently put Wyvern as the winner of Vote 76, but by only a 15-vote margin, so an upset is decidedly possible. But double-checking Wyvern's performance, its vote-earning seems to have dropped off significantly -- in the last 5 rounds, only once did it earn more than 150. Vote 75 even saw it yield the Most-Votes-A-Round title to none other than Recoil, but only by a single vote. These are two of the most popular vote-getters, and they appear to be neck-and-neck.

Wyvern and Recoil currently have vote totals only 3 votes apart, and last round earned nearly identical amounts of votes. I think Vote 76 may well be another Too Close To Call.

After that, though, it gets a bit more clear. Whoever of those two fails to win Vote 76 will definitely take Vote 77, and most likely in the 1,200+ range. No competition in sight; margin is liable to be 170+. Vote 78 will likely go to One More Trigger, by a healthy margin of 50 votes, then Vote 79 to Slippery Slope by a margin of 100+.

Hostage Situation probably takes Vote 80, followed by Alea Iacta Est taking Vote 81, each with a margin of 50+ -- far enough ahead that an upset is unlikely, but by this point we're looking more than two weeks out, so things could change in the meantime. Vote 82 goes to Trump Card by a 140+ margin; doubt that'll shift much.

Votes 83 and 84 are a bit more tenuous. Security!, and then I, Panacea are predicted to win, but only by margins of 40 and 24, respectively. Things could definitely shift by the time we get there.

Vote 85 is supposedly going to Wyvern, but with the doubts about its performance above, that may change. In fact, experimenting with altering Wyvern's vote-rate shows that if it continues to slide, War Games may overtake it by that point -- but by then we'll most likely be in early December, so again, who knows.

Past that point, estimated rounds-to-win are as follows:

Alea Iacta Est: 6
All Alone: 6
Bait & Switch: 27
Confrontation II: 8
Danny & Taylor: 16
Hostage Situation: 21
I, Panacea: 11
Junior Hero: 15
Meet the Heberts: 8
MirrorVerse: 3
NSW: 6
Nemesis: 18
One More Trigger: 12
Really Bad End: 2
Recoil: 2
Security!: 13
Slippery Slope: 16
Trump Card: 9
War Games: 1
Wyvern: 8

Again, that count starts from Vote 85.

Overall accuracy this last round was 97.68%. Most accurate was Nemesis, which came in exactly as predicted, 100% accurate. Least accurate proportionally was recent winner Meet the Heberts, which came in at only 81.82% of expected votes. Least accurate in raw vote count was a tie: both Confrontation II and War Games came in 21 votes ahead of predictions.

Current vote-earner rankings:
1: Wyvern - 145 - down 4
2: Alea Iacta Est - 128 - up 1
3: Recoil - 124
4: I, Panacea - 109
5: Trump Card -108 - up 1
6: Security! - 81 - down 1
7: Confrontation II - 66 - up 1
8: Meet the Heberts - 65 - down 1
9: One More Trigger - 63 - down 1
10: All Alone - 61 - up 1
11: War Games - 59 - up 3
12: Slippery Slope - 56
13: NSW - 50 - up 1
14: Hostage Situation - 47
15: MirrorVerse - 45 - up 2
16: Really Bad End - 27 - up 1
17: TIED!
- Nemesis - 25
- Danny & Taylor - 25
18: TIED!
- Junior Hero - 18 - down 1
- Bait & Switch - 18



My own vote:

[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] NSW - 5
[X] War Games - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Security! - 2
[X] Recoil - 1



And now to finally go read Meet the Heberts... still can't believe I completely missed it by a day...

 

[X] Alea Iacta Est - 6
[X] Wyvern - 5
[X] I, Panacea - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Nemesis - 2
[X] Slippery Slope - 1

 

[X] Hostage Situation - 6
[X] I, Panacea - 5
[X] War Games - 4
[X] MirrorVerse - 3
[X] NSW - 2
[X] Recoil - 1
[] One More Trigger - 0
[] Slippery Slope - 0
[] Wyvern - 0

 

[X] Confrontation II - 5
[X] Recoil - 6
[X] Slippery Slope - 2
[X] Trump Card - 3
[X] War Games - 4
[X] Wyvern - 1

 

[X] NSW - 6
[X] Meet the Heberts - 5
[X] Danny & Taylor - 4
[X] Recoil - 3
[X] One More Trigger - 2
[X] Bait & Switch - 1

 

[X] Meet the Heberts - 4
[] Hostage Situation - 0
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 5
[X] All Alone - 1
[X] Really Bad End - 2
[] Recoil - 0
[X] NSW - 3
[] Trump Card - 0
[X] Wyvern - 6
[] One More Trigger - 0
[] Confrontation II - 0

 

[X] War Games - 6
[X] Recoil - 5
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 4
[X] Wyvern - 3
[X] Confrontation II - 2
[X] Slippery Slope - 1

 

[X] MirrorVerse - 6
[X] Recoil - 5
[X] Trump Card - 4
[X] Security! - 3
[X] One More Trigger - 2
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 1

 

[X] NSW - 4
[X] Danny & Taylor - 3
[X] Wyvern - 5
[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] Security! - 2
[X] Trump Card - 1

 

[X] Trump Card - 6
[X] I, Panacea - 5
[X] NSW - 4
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 3
[X] Hostage Situation - 2
[X] Danny & Taylor - 1

 

[X] Alea Iacta Est - 6

 

Okay, update on the job situation:

I've been placed in a new job, but I'm still doing training and induction there, and the shifts are somewhat longer than I've been doing before. Plus, it's a rotating roster so I'm likely to be doing up to 12 hours at a time. During which time no writing gets done. A lot of walking, though.

Anyway, we'll see how it goes once I get settled into the routine.

Still working on Confrontation II.

 

[X] Wyvern - 6
[X] Recoil - 5
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 4
[X] I, Panacea - 3
[X] Trump Card - 2
[X] Security! - 1

 

The only solution is to practice holding lots of words in your head so you can write entire chapters mentally. Might be a bit hard to simultaneously walk while doing that, though.

 

Speach-to-text program on your phone. Write verbally while you do your rounds, and edit when you have time to.

 

Works just fine until he starts writing up NSW.

 

[X] One More Trigger - 6
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 5
[X] Security! - 4
[X] Recoil - 3
[X] Trump Card - 2
[X] Wyvern - 1

 

I don't know why, but this whole vote trading thing really bothers me.

[X] Recoil - 6
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 5
[X] Wyvern - 4
[X] Trump Card - 3
[X] Bait and Switch - 2
[X] Confrontation II - 1

 

"

It's because you grew up with a naive idea of democracy, vote trading is a ancient tradion from Greece.

Here is a example of ancient trading

"I will vote for this man's Exile In exchange for a chicken."

Modern trading

"I will support you in the elections if you vote for my bill."

Or my favorite, "hey homeless guy, I will give you a warm meal if you vote (blank) for president."

 

[X] Recoil - 6
[X] Security! - 5
[X] War Games - 4
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 3
[X] Wyvern - 2
[X] I, Panacea - 1

 

[X] Security! - 6
[X] Recoil - 5
[X] Trump Card - 4
[X] I, Panacea - 3
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 2
[X] Wyvern - 1

 

[X] Recoil - 6
[X] Wyvern - 5
[X] Trump Card - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Bait & Switch - 2
[X] NSW - 1