Vote Thread for Ack's Omake Corner

And the problem with that is?

 

Done!

The tradition must continue! we must overturn the tyranny of the majority!

 

[X] Security! - 6
[X] I, Panacea - 5
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 4
[X] Confrontation II - 3
[X] Wyvern - 2
[X] Trump Card - 1

Thanks for not tallying yet, Ack. I seem to be off my game lately in keeping up with the votes. Wouldn't want Security! to lose the points I'm giving it.

 

I try to wait till we've got 60 or so votes in. That gives a nice spread of numbers.

 

[X] War Games - 6
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 5
[X] Meet the Heberts - 4
[X] Wyvern - 3
[X] Danny & Taylor - 2
[X] Confrontation II - 1

 

[X] Security! - 6
[X] Recoil - 5
[X] Trump Card - 4
[X] I, Panacea - 3
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 2
[X] Wyvern - 1

 

[X] War Games - 6
[X] Trump Card -5
[X] Wyvern - 4
[X] Recoil - 3
[X] Nemesis - 2
[X] I, Panacea - 1

 

[X] Recoil - 6
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 5
[X] I, Panacea - 4
[X] Wyvern - 3
[X] One More Trigger - 2
[X] Trump Card - 1

 

[X] Recoil - 6
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 5
[X] Trump Card - 4
[X] All Alone - 3
[X] One More Trigger - 2
[X] NSW - 1

 

[X] Meet The Heberts - 6
[X] Danny & Taylor - 5
[X] NSW - 4
[X] Hostage Situation - 3
[X] Trump Card - 2
[X] I, Panacea - 1

 

[X] NSW - 4
[X] Danny & Taylor - 3
[X] Wyvern - 5
[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] Security! - 2
[X] Trump Card - 1

 

[X] Hostage Situation - 6
[X] I, Panacea - 5
[X] War Games - 4
[X] MirrorVerse - 3
[X] NSW - 2
[X] Wyvern - 1
[] Recoil - 0
[] One More Trigger - 0
[] Slippery Slope - 0
[] Wyvern - 0

 

[X] NSW - 6
[X] Meet the Heberts - 5
[X] Danny & Taylor - 4
[X] Recoil - 3
[X] One More Trigger - 2
[X] Bait & Switch - 1

 

Welp, have some Another Way.

And what the hell, I'll tally me some votes.

Note that from here on in, there is likely to be a longer interval between chapters, due to longer hours and such. Whee.

Anyways.

Voting is CLOSED.

 

[X] MirrorVerse - 6
[X] All Alone - 5
[X] War Games - 4
[X] Really Bad End - 3

The Ack Stock exchange and Vote Trading Post, sponsoring MirrorVerse. Just tag me, or quote this post.

 

[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] NSW - 5
[X] Really Bad End - 4
[X] Hostage Situation - 3
[X] Confrontation II - 2
[X] Trump Card - 1

 

[X] War Games - 6
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 5
[X] MirrorVerse - 4
[X] Meet the Heberts - 3
[X] I, Panacea - 2

 

[X] All Alone - 6 (swapped for MirrorVerse with Anaja)
[X] MirrorVerse - 5 (swapped for All Alone with Snake/Eater)
[X] Slippery Slope - 4 (swapped for Confrontation II with Edale)
[X] War Games - 3 (swapped for Confrontation II with Subsider34)
[X] Confrontation II - 2
[X] Recoil - 1

 

[X] Security! - 6
[X] I, Panacea - 5
[X] Confrontation II - 4
[X] Recoil - 3
[X] One More Trigger - 2
[X] All Alone - 1

Also, something I noticed when looking at the vote counts:

Is the voting trying to tell us something

 

[X] Really Bad End - 6
[X] War Games - 5
[X] All Alone - 4
[X] Trump Card - 3
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 2
[X] Confrontation II - 1
[] Recoil - 0
[] Wyvern - 0
[] One More Trigger - 0

 

[X] War Games - 6
[X] Junior Hero - 5
[X] I, Panacea - 4
[X] Security! - 2
[X] Recoil - 1

Locked:
Swapped for War Games with Angush
[X] Confrontation II - 3


As an aside, get a load of that NSW vote count. 666 indeed.

 

[X] Confrontation II - 6
[X] Hostage Situation - 5
[X] NSW - 4
[X] Bait & Switch - 3
[X] Meet the Heberts - 2
[X] All Alone - 1

 

[X] I, Panacea - 6
[X] Slippery Slope - 5
[X] Confrontation II - 4
[X] Security! - 3
[X] Hostage Situation - 2
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 1

Confrontation II/Slippery Slope -> Angush

 

[X] Recoil - 6
[X] I, Panacea - 5
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 4
[X] Trump Card - 3
[X] Hostage Situation - 2
[X] Slippery Slope - 1

 

[X] Alea Iacta Est - 6
[X] War Games - 5
[X] Wyvern - 4
[X] Nemesis - 3
[X] Hostage Situation - 2
[X] Trump Card - 1

 

[] Marky's Angels - 13
[X] One More Trigger - 6
[X] Wyvern - 5
[X] Recoil - 4
[X] I, Panacea - 3
[X] Security! - 2
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 1
[] Trump Card
[] Hostage Situation

 

Hostage Situation is probably going to hold its own this round. Both Model A and Model B have it winning by 40+ votes, which would require a fairly drastic shift in voting patterns to disrupt this late in the game.

Vote 81 will indeed be close, however. Both models put Alea Iacta Est ahead, but Model A has it winning by less than 30 votes, and Model B by less than 20. Two rounds out, that kind of shift could be achieved by just 2-3 people changing their top vote. Trump Card, on the other hand, has Vote 82 sewn up, as it is projected to win by 80-90 votes. Not much liable to change there. War Games is similarly secure in Vote 83, projected to win by at least 110 and up to nearly 150 votes.

Vote 84 is another potential close one. Security! is favored, but only by 20-30 votes, and it's much further out. This could change a fair bit. After that comes I, Pancea, which is a bit more sure to win Vote 85 by 60-100 votes.

Vote 86 is still a point of contention between my two predictive models, though they're starting to converge. Model A has Recoil winning, but the margin has been cut nearly in half, from 75 down to 39. Model B has MirrorVerse winning, and the margin has doubled from 10 to 20. At this point I strongly suspect that MirrorVerse will emerge the victor, but time will tell.

The next couple rounds are also points of disagreement based on this, but the results have changed. Model A is now calling for MirrorVerse to win Vote 87 by 1 vote, where it previously had Wyvern winning. Now it pushes Wyvern back to Vote 88, where it wins by 160+ votes.

Model B, on the other hand, gives Vote 87 to Recoil as a consolation prize for losing to MirrorVerse, by a margin of 140+ votes. It makes Wyvern wait until Vote 88, and even then only has it winning by 50-some votes. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

Both models start to agree again when we reach Vote 89, which goes to NSW. They still differ somewhat; Model A has it only winning by 10 votes, Model B is more confident it'll win by 40+. We'll have to see how it winds up when we get to that point, as it'll most likely be in late December, if not after New Year's.

Rounds to win past Vote 89 are:

Alea Iacta Est: 3
All Alone: 3
Bait & Switch: 26-31
Confrontation II: 7-8
Danny & Taylor: 6-8
Hostage Situation: 17
I, Panacea: 8-9
Junior Hero: 13-14
Meet the Heberts: 4-6
MirrorVerse: 21-24
NSW: 20-22
Nemesis: 18
One More Trigger: 11-15
Really Bad End: 1
Recoil: 8-9
Security!: 12-13
Slippery Slope: 15-19
Trump Card: 5
War Games: 11-12
Wyvern: 9-10

As usual, this is counting from Vote 89 on.


Once again, accuracy between the two models differed.

Oldschool Model A was overall 96.26% accurate, with an average vote discrepancy of 9. Most accurate was Junior Hero, which came in exactly on the money. Least accurate proportionally was recent winner One More Trigger, which only earned 62.71% of expected votes. Least accurate in raw vote count was Wyvern, which continues to underperform -- this time to the tune of 26 votes.

Newschool Model B, on the other hand, scored an overall accuracy of 97.13%, with an average vote discrepancy of 7. Most accurate here was Hostage Situation, which was 1 vote off and 99.94% accurate. Least accurate proportionally was also One More Trigger, here with 68.10%. Least accurate in vote count was different here; Meet the Heberts brought home 19 more votes than expected (and then did all kinds of lewd things with them).

The two models are also disagreeing on how frequently future updates will come out; Model A is predicting a 5-day interval, while Model B is more optimistic with a 4-day interval. We'll see which one is closer.



My vote:
[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] NSW - 5
[X] War Games - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Security! - 2
[X] Recoil - 1

 

Given that I start job training in earnest on Monday, and I have no idea what sort of hours I'll be doing, 5 days is probably closer to the mark.

 

[X] Security! - 6
[X] I, Panacea - 5
[X] One More Trigger - 4
[X] Trump Card - 3
[X] War Games - 2
[X] Wyvern - 1