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Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

You know, we've technically already attacked Copper this turn. I have to wonder how being chased by Ash has affected her, or if it's the reason she went through with this attack.

Any thoughts on Scrying Copper and Windy?
....
You know.
It doesn't take lore to find Ash.

How did you manage to miss me talking about the Name hit squad? :V
I saw that, just thought it was a turn 21 plan. My bad!
 
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Honestly, I just want Copper dead and to look for the Outsider. That's it. I am sick and tired of us not progressing win conditions, and this stupid fucking war. How those get done don't matter much to me as long as they are done.

Also, a random thought I had, but it's interesting that Copper's goons weren't seemingly expecting heavy Name support. Like, sure, it makes sense if Copper hadn't seen either Marinette or Biedde in the Mansus, but… did she not even scry for Velvet's possible defenses? It's not like we have Wards set up to defend the mansion or anything…

Because yeah, four goons with at least one influence and a Windigo isn't a small investment, but it's definitely not something I would depend on to get through two seperate Names, even discounting that Velvet had a Resolution. If she weren't already wounded, we wouldn't even be on death's door right now. Especially if DoA had been on guard too, which was at least a possibility.
 
Also, a random thought I had, but it's interesting that Copper's goons weren't seemingly expecting heavy Name support. Like, sure, it makes sense if Copper hadn't seen either Marinette or Biedde in the Mansus, but… did she not even scry for Velvet's possible defenses? It's not like we have Wards set up to defend the mansion or anything…
I'm pretty sure we were scouted, based on that "detailed map".
And as the four of you wade through the fields of crops, pulling the cart behind you, the mansion finally comes into view. There is more than enough moonlight for you to see it. And it doesn't take long for you to confirm that the detailed map Copper gave you is accurate.

Yes, there it is. A large mansion, several annex buildings around something that looks like an open spot… the garden, you know. And then there are the surrounding walls. The walls, you all know, are mostly meant to keep critters and wildlife away, given how one-third of the population can easily fly over it.

However, none of you have wings. So, this will be your first challenge.

Thankfully, the map also points at a side-gate, that leads to one of the annex buildings, that you can use to sneak in.
So, you run past the side-gate. You rush through the annex building. And you practically gallop, following the map you were given, until you exit the annex building through its main entrance, and reach the central garden of the estate.
But Mareinette does have Our Lady of Wires, which perhaps made her less remarkable as a threat, and we only summoned Biedde this turn.
 
You know, we've technically already attacked Copper this turn. I have to wonder how being chased by Ash has affected her, or if it's the reason she went through with this attack.
...
....
............

*Inhale* *Exhale* *Inhale* *Exhale* *Inhale* *Exhale*
If that was the reason Copper attacked us and destroyed all the plans we had for turn 20... We really need to learn nothing good comes from the Wolf. The message is always forgotten in some way.

I am sick and tired of us not progressing win conditions, and this stupid fucking war.
I think the war only ends if we get rid of all of our opponents, not just Copper. But she is also our enemy so killing her might be enough.
 
I'm pretty sure we were scouted, based on that "detailed map".


But Mareinette does have Our Lady of Wires, which perhaps made her less remarkable as a threat, and we only summoned Biedde this turn.
Huh, I missed the map thing. That's… interesting. Very interesting.
 
Also, a random thought I had, but it's interesting that Copper's goons weren't seemingly expecting heavy Name support. Like, sure, it makes sense if Copper hadn't seen either Marinette or Biedde in the Mansus, but… did she not even scry for Velvet's possible defenses? It's not like we have Wards set up to defend the mansion or anything…
Sure, I'll play along.

Now, this isn't WoG. But let me share Velvet's perspective on this, based on Velvet's own personal knowledge.

Velvet's actions:
Turn 16: Got played like a fiddle by the Master's EiB
Turn 17: Attacked Copper Secateur with PtN / End of DoA summoning period
Turn 18: Nuked the Woods and send a puppy after Copper.
Turn 19: Summoned Biedde and Daughter-of-Axes

Copper's actions:
Turn 16: Got played like a fiddle by the Master
Turn 17: Cast an EiB of "Terrible intensity"
Turn 18: ???
Turn 19: Attack Velvet Covers

Now, what rituals or preparations could Copper have done on Turn 18? And if she, say, scryed you on that turn, how many Names would she have seen?

Like I said, information quarantine is a bitch, innit?

Is this list canon? Again, no. Could Copper have scryed you this turn, seen everything you had, and said "Nah, I'd win"? Of course. Is there stuff missing? Absolutely.

But this is what is on Velvet's mind, about all this. Or rather, this is what she will think about, once her head stops hurting.
 
*Inhale* *Exhale* *Inhale* *Exhale* *Inhale* *Exhale*
If that was the reason Copper attacked us and destroyed all the plans we had for turn 20... We really need to learn nothing good comes from the Wolf. The message is always forgotten in some way.
I... don't really see how it could be? I think this has been brought up before but... I really don't see how Copper could possibly make the connection between "the Woods are now Ash and they're trying to eat me" and "Velvet Covers".
 
Also, a random thought I had, but it's interesting that Copper's goons weren't seemingly expecting heavy Name support. Like, sure, it makes sense if Copper hadn't seen either Marinette or Biedde in the Mansus, but… did she not even scry for Velvet's possible defenses? It's not like we have Wards set up to defend the mansion or anything…
I think Copper is in a weird situation in which she thinks she's knowledgeable about the Mansus, but really isn't. If you think about it, Grail is her primary Lore, and she likely has a decent chunk of Winter given she has Neighna. However, with how the original cult was set up, she wasn't in charge of developing the cult's knowledge. She was in charge of recruiting. And the actual amount of "stuff" we provided was the cult wasn't... much.

Primarily, she's aware of Windigos, as we saw in the attack against us. She only used a single one if her attack, but unless I'm remembering incorrectly, not that many were brought to the Changeling Hive, and the Changeling Hive was destroyed. I personally believe that she did scout us, as the map was already mentioned, but if her scouting took place last turn, she would have seen Comet guarding us and... that's it.

To take on the 2-health Velvet and Comet alone, 4 edge-aligned ponies and a Windigo should have been enough. Mareinette was around, but she never really left the basement we stuck her in. And Biedde didn't appear until this turn.

In fact, our decisions look like madness to her. Here we are, an opposing cultist, with two Names working under us. Why would we ever use such powerful entities to do something as mundane as guarding our home? Why would we not be using them for "better" actions more in line with the Lores we're aware of?

So, she sent the attack, and it failed. With the information she has, Copper has to despise us even more, too. Her scouting last turn would have reported a poorly guarded manor, but yet, out of nowhere, two Names she's never heard of suddenly appeared and Velvet was empowered with Edge? While I doubt she has a way to learn of this given everyone involved is now dead, it almost feels like we set this up just to trap her. I can't imagine what she might be thinking right now.
 
near certainly not.

Outsider Search is searching for what we're 99% certain is Discord's petrified self. PROBABLY hidden somewhere by Celestia, because I can't imagine anyone else moving them around unless the Master somehow did it, or Discord freed himself and FOR SOME REASON didn't go on a rampage.

Both feel fairly unlikely.
Imagine if it is just secret backdoor to the Royal Vault :V

Maybe we should scry Copper, or our Manuscripts. Maybe with Jade. Baldomare investigating the Outsider is so damn good.
Scrying for Manuscrips as a way to find Copper is just asking to misdirect ourself. Imagine if they were taken by totally unrelated group like Hintchasers.

Twilight: "Please just leave me alone."

Velvet: "Ah, but she never said the terrifying Foal-eating monster should leave her alone!"
Seems like a plan. Tell Mariennete to befriend most useless to us pony on our contact list to use for the Sacrament purpose. Even better if she considers possibility of it being Grail Sacrament . Because proper motivation is important:V

Twilight: Velvet, I am glad that you got me out of my room... but why are you trying to salt me?

If all is fair, I'd say let's not send Selene just yet. She wants to guard Velvet, and has yet to finish her training.

Consider the attack a... Graduation present for her.
She would be quite good at assaulting proto-hive I think, no holds barred, tons of health, artifact that allows her escape if things go south. We likely will keep delaying it, but still wanted to point that it is possibility, we have money. Blowing up mountain would be more therapeutic, than worrying over Velvet's bed and we can get access to Changeling bodies. Either for Risen or to plant false evidence in Manehatten. If we don't want for Celestia to lose faith in her ponies we can as well blame everything on changelings.
 
[Velvet: 64 + 48 (total combat bonus) = 112]
Also, as another complete aside, but… I just find this really funny. Velvet, even when literally being the walking fucking dead and losing all her Edge Lore, was still swinging almost twice the combat bonus that Shining Armor had. I almost feel sorry for the pony that had to fight her.
But this is what is on Velvet's mind, about all this. Or rather, this is what she will think about, once her head stops hurting.
Fair enough. It would be kinda funny if she scried Velvet, saw her with almost no defenses, and still decided to throw four Influenced thugs and a Windigo. No kill like overkill… except when it turns out to be very severe underkill for no reason.
 
So, she sent the attack, and it failed. With the information she has, Copper has to despise us even more, too. Her scouting last turn would have reported a poorly guarded manor, but yet, out of nowhere, two Names she's never heard of suddenly appeared and Velvet was empowered with Edge? While I doubt she has a way to learn of this given everyone involved is now dead, it almost feels like we set this up just to trap her. I can't imagine what she might be thinking right now.
Let's remember that, as we were so recently reminded, information blackout is a thing.

Copper doesn't necessarily know how successful or unsuccessful her attack was.

She knows she sent out mobsters and a Wendigo, and they did not come back.

(Unless there's something we don't know about how that all went down, and she was tracking it or Neighnea could sense their Endings! :V )
Fair enough. It would be kinda funny if she cried Velvet, saw her with absolutely no defenses, and still decided to throw four Influenced thugs and a Windigo. No kill like overkill… except when it turns out to be very severe underkill for no reason.
I mean... we are all-but-dead right now, and would be if not for a realization she didn't know about. (Yes, we did get unlucky, but still). It seems like an appropriate level of kill!
 
Fair enough. It would be kinda funny if she scried Velvet, saw her with almost no defenses, and still decided to throw four Influenced thugs and a Windigo. No kill like overkill… except when it turns out to be very severe underkill for no reason.
Also, keep in mind... when we last left the cult, they had literally 0 Lantern*. We never wrote any Lantern manuscripts from them.

Their RotTs aren't likely to be particularly high quality :V

*excepting the +1 from the Master's presence, which isn't really a factor anymore! Might still apply though, maybe.
 
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I mean... we are all-but-dead right now, and would be if not for a realization she didn't know about. (Yes, we did get unlucky, but still). It seems like an appropriate level of kill!
Only because Velvet was wounded due to another unforeseen event. A two health Velvet would still be on one right now, and relatively fine.
Also, keep in mind... when we last left the cult, they had literally 0 Lantern. We never wrote any Lantern manuscripts from them.

Their RotTs aren't likely to be particularly high quality :V
Seriously? Huh, I thought we had…

Oh wait. No, it was all Name support. I'm pretty sure they were still rolling at Level Two for summoning Baldomare though, so unless Copper has burned all her Lantern ponies by now she should still have some semi-decent scriers.

Also the cadre.
[OPPONENT ROLL: 93 + 46 (Act?) + 30 (Blood?) -10 (Paranoia) = 159]
Or, well, +46 isn't bad. Not sure what the actual level is there.
 
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I... don't really see how it could be? I think this has been brought up before but... I really don't see how Copper could possibly make the connection between "the Woods are now Ash and they're trying to eat me" and "Velvet Covers".
Not that she blames Velvet exactly(but her hate could make her think that) but that Ash made her desperate enough to just do it to get rid of one of her problems. Just taking out her traumas and hardships by hating Velvet, the usual for her.
 
Not that she blames Velvet exactly(but her hate could make her think that) but that Ash made her desperate enough to just do it to get rid of one of her problems. Just taking out her traumas and hardships by hating Velvet, the usual for her.
To put it simply
"Looking for a scapegoat, it doesn't matter if you are right"
 
Seems like a plan. Tell Mariennete to befriend most useless to us pony on our contact list to use for the Sacrament purpose. Even better if she considers possibility of it being Grail Sacrament . Because proper motivation is important:V
That isn't the reason as to why i want that to happen.
Not that she blames Velvet exactly(but her hate could make her think that) but that Ash made her desperate enough to just do it to get rid of one of her problems. Just taking out her traumas and hardships by hating Velvet, the usual for her.
Makes sense.
 
Heza preserve me, this thread moves too fast to keep up with sometimes. Absent any participation with the ongoing discussions, here are my completely uninformed opinions.

[X] There has been an attempt against the Commissioner's life.
I can somewhat recall us trying to find a way to get them to go after Copper, this seems like a good excuse.

[X] Time
Presently, our actions are worth a lot less than normal, so giving one up doesn't sting as badly as it might otherwise.

Hope everyone is doing well.
 
FWIW, Some math on our chance of success at Outsider search this turn, with different approaches.

(Assuming Baldomare rolls with +80 (Edit: Oops! Thanks Pittauro), Servants roll with -20, everyone else rolls with just their base bonus.)

The below is wrong I forgot Intrigue modifiers.
Baldomare + Servants: 29% chance.
Baldomare + Comet/Rarity/Another +0: 47% chance.
Baldomare + Comet/Rarity + Servants: 71% chance.
Baldomare + Luna (+20): 67% chance.
Baldomare + Luna + Servants: 84% chance.
[/SPOILER}
I'm... kind of tempted to ask Rarity to search for the outsider? Rather than focus on her work? She's Grail 3/Forge 1, she should have good odds at success even without a dedicated action...
 
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I'm... kind of tempted to ask Rarity to search for the outsider? Rather than focus on her work? She's Grail 3/Forge 1, she should have good odds at success even without a dedicated action...
As long as we're cool her w/ possibly not being able to take a commission next turn, sure. I think the only outstanding costs that are absolutely necessary for T21 would be FR (20 + 45) and Biedde's refresh (60 bits), but that's well within our normal income. Technically she might also end up taking some other action, but either way another die gets thrown at the Outsider.
 
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Now, what rituals or preparations could Copper have done on Turn 18? And if she, say, scryed you on that turn, how many Names would she have seen?
Heh.

we ONLY summoned TWO EXTRA NAMES this turn.

She DID send a Windigo, to be fair. Baldomare is NOT a combatant, and a Windigo actually has a chance of beating Axe, especially with support.

beside that...Biedde is partly moth, and Mareinette has traits specifically about hiding her stats.

So, she sent the attack, and it failed. With the information she has, Copper has to despise us even more, too. Her scouting last turn would have reported a poorly guarded manor, but yet, out of nowhere, two Names she's never heard of suddenly appeared and Velvet was empowered with Edge? While I doubt she has a way to learn of this given everyone involved is now dead, it almost feels like we set this up just to trap her. I can't imagine what she might be thinking right now.
in a way we did.

we bet she'd attack us, and added Biedde AND Mareinette AND the edge 4 influence in large part to counter the possible attack.

we didn't predict the wound from the Church (our, my mistake), or that they could just keep the names busy while one single thug would fight Velvet alone.

but we DID expect an attack. Not with certainty, but I personally gave it around 50% chance AT LEAST.

Also, as another complete aside, but… I just find this really funny. Velvet, even when literally being the walking fucking dead and losing all her Edge Lore, was still swinging almost twice the combat bonus that Shining Armor had. I almost feel sorry for the pony that had to fight her.
well, she DID have the edge influence. Otherwise it would have JUST been a +8.


(Assuming Baldomare rolls with +110, Servants roll with -20, everyone else rolls with just their base bonus.)
Baldomare is +80. 50 general, and SH6 = +30, WITH REROLL.

Baldomare + Luna + Servants: 95% chance.
This is what I'd push for.

Baldomare does more than half the work. Selene has two actions, and even if we accept her request to do Guard this turn we can still send her for the second one (and have her assist on grave expedition as a free action).

and servants can be a "just in case" addition, if the other two are not enough.



I see no reason in using Rarity over this combo.
 
Uh… doesn't it use Learning? Comet and Rarity should give at least some bonus, even if they don't have SH.
Intrigue actually, iirc.

I see no reason in using Rarity over this combo.
Because Baldomare can superscry so we can make sure that Copper will stop being a problem and Rarity can't :V

Servants + Rarity + Comet should have an average result of ~161, which would put it well within feasible finishing distance for Selene next turn.

Edit: Also keep in mind re: Selene finishing it next turn that she should be able to throw both her actions at it. That would be 40 progress minimum, so if the Servants + Rarity + Comet combo roll average or higher, Selene would 100% finish it out.

Though technically, the Rarity + Servants + Comet combo has a ~23% chance of finishing it off themselves this turn. Which is low, but not zero!

Edit 2: In the interest of transparency, I'm assuming that between Rarity and Comet's stats, it'll balance out to effectively a +10 modifier for each of their rolls. If they both have sucky Intrigue, the average will be a bit lower, but, eh.
 
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[X] There has been an attempt against the Commissioner's life.

[X] Freedom
 
Also, on that one mass social plan with Incarnadescence, I just want to say that I am highly amused by the idea of so many people getting to experience the walking corpse of Velvet Covers. Especially with the Cannibal Name's full Influence on her. :V

More seriously, a mostly dead pony still swinging some +60-ish to social is definitely an interesting image. That's gonna be some real tragic beauty shit right there.
 
Also, on that one mass social plan with Incarnadescence, I just want to say that I am highly amused by the idea of so many people getting to experience the walking corpse of Velvet Covers. Especially with the Cannibal Name's full Influence on her. :V

More seriously, a mostly dead pony still swinging some +60-ish to social is definitely an interesting image. That's gonna be some real tragic beauty shit right there.
The power of having four different Names at our disposal :V
 

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