It's not really feasible this turn, but we should really start sending people out to look for expeditions to clear out.
Also didn't Bird mention that there's an easy expedition near Ponyville somewhere that rewards a Level 5 artifact of some kind?
or, you know, book searches in Ponyville for both heart 3 AND expedition books.
Baldomare and Jade can of course scry for most anything we might ever want too.
It would be an even better use for a Secret Histories Confidant...
if we had one!
:-/
If only we got Stormchaser actions!
It's old news by now, but I got morbidly curious and ran this through a proper calculator (chance of d100 beating another d100 with such and such bonuses):
Chance of losing the clash by 50 or more ~ 1.7%
Chance of losing the clash by 54 or more ~1.1%
In summary, Velvet Covers tried the classic XCOM "99%" shot and missed.
as I repeatedly said... we took SOME risks this turn (church while same turn we risked being attacked), But we also took a LOT of precautions (Mareinette guard, Biedde summoning, Edge influence), so while there's definitely an argument that we risked too much...
we were also REALLY really unlucky.
It COULD have been worse (if Copper had sent more Windigoes or more thugs, for example), but really, it shouldn't have gone that badly with the precautions we took.
As far as I remember, almost no "family actions" you took ever used Grail. Maybe the one where you tried to mend your relationship with Stormchaser did? But other than that, I don't remember rolling Grail dice when you spent time with your family. So I don't think a Grail influence would be important for that.
But more importantly, you won't have a chance to run "damage control" with your family and friends this turn because you will stay at zero health until the END of the turn.
Come next turn, there will probably be Fleeting Opportunities to address your family and friends. But don't put the cart ahead of the pony. Right now, you still look like a corpse. And I think the last few updates make it very clear how debilitated you are. Trying to console your family while you are still in that situation is a waste of time at best, and damaging at worst.
ok, so no point in family action this turn, maybe the next one.
...we'll need to go at least double cover your bases next time, we really need the extra actions.
Side note, I
think we "
grailed" Stormchaser for a night of passion at some point, but I might be misremembering. I vaguely remember him appreciating Velvet's Grail at some point, but maybe it was not the influence and just that we had gone up in Grail in that turn...
...it's kinda funny, Rarity is more
aware of Velvet's grail than her husband! such scandal!
If you succeed in a Forge Redemption to take away your scar, your gain the health that "scarred" was keeping away from you.
good to know. so if we were willing to take the risk on Biedde we COULD face his challenge directly (with all the obvious risks), or more reasonably we can assume we do that ritual early in the update and we'd be at 3/3 for the rest of it.
Yeah I don't think we're going to have enough free AP to finish DoA's Sacrament on T21.
eh, depends on what we're willing to give up.
4 basic actions, probably +2 from cover your bases at best, we just can't afford +3.
Constables action is likely a no, they'll be needed either for Changelings OR for Cult assault.
So, 6 actions max.
1)Study Lantern/Knock
2)Forge Ritual
those are basically a must. We're also near certain to have AT LEAST 1, possibly 2 Fleeting Opportunity actions for family/Cadance/Luna/Friends.
that leaves, AT BEST, 2 actions.
I think there's a chance of us completing Axe in 2 actions, but it's certainly not a guarantee.
If we fail, she gets desummoned again, we need to resummon her a turn later to finish the sacrament on turn 23, and I imagine we'd instead finish SH on turn 22 (or Edge. or both).
Summoning requirements: KNOCK 120, EDGE 60, WINTER 60.
At least the ritual should be fairly easy?
Knock 2 artifact gives +20. a single Key gives +30.
Let Biedde do it.
Edge: Autosuccess on anything but nat1-
Winter: +30. make a winter 3 reagent?
Knock: 30+20+30= +80...
ok, I suppose Biedde is not THAT suited to it.
oh, wait, SELENE!
General +30, AND she'd be knock-edge-winter 4 by then!
EDGE: autosuccess on anything but nat1
Winter: autosuccess on anything but TWO nat1s in a row
Knock: 30+40+30 = +100. needs a 20. has a reroll.
make a knock lvl 1 or 2 reagent, or use a second Wrong Key, and she basically autosucceeds the ritual!
that works pretty well narratively. She'd even be better than Velvet!
Edit: Actually if we're still literally corpse-like while we're doing socials to the point it could be actively detrimental to our friends and family, then maybe we should only stick to the free social except for whatever Mareinette is doing.
we can still "use" our appearance to get concessions and "pity points" so to speak.
In other words, I think that with Grail it can still be worth it to meet Mayor Mare, the Rich couple, and maybe Applejack.
The only real alternatives we have to social is searching for books, for expeditions, or studying artifacts/books with a significant efficiency malus. I dislike the idea, though I suppose studying the Knock and Lantern artifacts wouldnt' be the worst idea.
It's not "even more people", as far as I can tell, the same people who don't want to take the personal Grail Sacrament also are the ones that don't want to take the alukite's Grail Sacrament. Because they're both unpleasant for very different reasons.
And besides, you know what a great solution is to the very distant problem of what to do when we eventually dig up four Grail scraps somewhere? Reach victory before it ever becomes a meaningful question.
for the record, I'm all for Baldomare Lantern (simple and easy really, just give her two Mares we summon just for that! They can even do their normal actions before the expedition!), and I'm slightly more willing to do Mareinette Grail than Personal Grail but still hate them both.
I'm kind of against winter sacrament too, but I'm starting to... not care that much about it. 3 random lives might be worth the power boost, and it gives us access to the resting place of the Sun-in-Rags, which might be valuable. I imagine there's likely the Winter Heirloom there...
IF/WHEN we run out of other sacraments to pursue, MAYBE I'll consider grail. But considering we have SH, Knock, Edge, Moth, Lantern, Forge and Winter that are all available with some effort
I highly, highly doubt that Copper has enough wards to really contest a +53 w/ reroll. That would require to have gotten her cult up to both Forge 3 and Moth 3 without a Loremaster and in the immediate chaos of the sudden dissolution of the cult, then getting attacked twice, then preparing to attack us.
Jade should be sufficient, and ultimately Bird is the one to optimize anyway. And objectively, Baldomare is better doing the Outsider search than vice versa.
considering Bird's frustration for "
please go and reach the Glory PLEASE", yeah, I'm pretty sure he'll put old Baldie on Outsider.
Having Jade a Seeker go up against a fully there Name is not a match up I'd say Velvet would be comfortable with. Especially with Winters protective qualities.
winter protects the mind
. if you wanted to defend from scrying you'd need Moth.
If we were scrying Neighnia directly I imagine we'd have problems, but we're searching for Copper, so it SHOULD be fine.
- I prefer Selene get her Winter realization.
keep in mind that Selene also has the third action she uses on training. So even if we don't pick Winter ourselves she might do it on her own.
- We don't need a reprehensible pony for the Moth Sacrament, since it doesn't kill them. Well, I suppose we could do the Moth and Lantern Sacrament to the same prisoner, which is an amusing thought.
well, moth on leashed good friend was described as being fairly cruel, so the target being someone we wouldnt' feel guilt about is still better.