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Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

Reader mode
ses said:
The real challenge isn't even All In, it's the Malleary, which presumably requires us to be able to hit CD 120 in each Lore, while wearing Influences only from Befriended Names or a single Called Influence. That means we're stuck with either Moth or Winter as our weakness.
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This is true.

Like, sure, All In presumably won't be easy, but... IF we manage to befriend all the Names we're bringing Baldomare, Axe, Mareinette, Smiles and Cherenkolt, Plus Velvet, plus probably one Risen and maybe some Mares in the Light, and I'm not excluding we might bring Rarity and/or Jade.

Malleary, on the other end... I don't remember if we can get Name influences there, though I think we can't. Other than that, we can maybe get lvl 5 to 7 artifacts to help, but that's kinda it.

mh... I wonder if we should try to scry for All In right before we go for it. the description mentions it to be dangerous, but we DO have a Baldomare extremely well suited to it...

...then again, Baldomare actions are currently extremely valuable, as we need her for the two SH Sacraments AND we might need a lantern lesson before taking her Lantern Sacrament too.
 
There's a decent chance that an intervention in taking the Watchpony's Mirror would make it a lot lot harder for Celestia to reach Lantern Mastery.
 
that mirror is going to be deep in the castle, Probably in the most guarded areas of the Eclipse quarters, we won't get it without a massacre EVEN if Celestia wasn't there.

It's just not worth it
 
Pittauro said:
that mirror is going to be deep in the castle, Probably in the most guarded areas of the Eclipse quarters, we won't get it without a massacre EVEN if Celestia wasn't there.

It's just not worth it
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Mareinette could probably talk her way in and out.

Get the guards to let her in, take the Mirror, then leave without hurting anypony.

60 (Social Action) + 30 (Grail 6) + 40 (Grail Influence) = 130 bonus at base
 
[X] The Royal Apartment has become distressingly hot, to the point that even Princess Celestia's guards (ceremonial as they were) have been prohibited from approaching it. This has become the most crucial issue on Princess Cadance's agenda.

I really hope Velvet Covers doesn't forget about Biedde entirely after this turn.
 
Shaper47 said:
Mareinette could probably talk her way in and out.

Get the guards to let her in, take the Mirror, then leave without hurting anypony.

60 (Social Action) + 30 (Grail 6) + 40 (Grail Influence) = 130 bonus at base
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kind of irrelevant. Mechanically, expeditions have challenges of specific types.

If the Guards are meant to be a Moth or Edge challenge, then Grail will just not be used or be relevant. We don't get to pick the Lore we use unless that lore was already meant to be used there.

if Mareinette was able to fake being Celestia, then sure. But we know she can (or at least is willing to) fake being only us
 
des-pair-2 said:
Then you probably shouldn't vote for the option that will likely burn half our AP.
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I forgot the turn hadn't ended yet. What I was aiming to do was burn the AP next turn to settle the matter, and then not have continual costs from Bureau or whatever happens with letting Celestia loose in the Mansus.
 
Pittauro said:
if Mareinette was able to fake being Celestia, then sure. But we know she can (or at least is willing to) fake being only us
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Well she can also fake being Cadance, or a innocent maid.

So she can fake more then just her summoner.

Though that makes me wonder what kind of stuff Velvet can pull once she has her moth Sacrament.

Pittauro said:
kind of irrelevant. Mechanically, expeditions have challenges of specific types.
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Kinda, I'm pretty sure it depends on the context.

Like, the previous expedition Velvet was on could have had Velvet just use edge for every roll instead of avoiding fights till she could ambush the leadership.

So Mareinette could avoid the other expedition challenges by Grailing her way into being granted an exemption.
 
If you seriously think we can succeed in taking the Mirror and dealing with the aftermath right now, then you might as well vote for All-In at the end of the turn after your estimation we can do that anyway, it won't be that much more difficult?
 
dcoconeo said:
If you seriously think we can succeed in taking the Mirror and dealing with the aftermath right now, then you might as well vote for All-In at the end of the turn after your estimation we can do that anyway, it won't be that much more difficult?
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???

Those are completely different things.

We avoid the aftermath due to our Above All Suspicion trait, Celestia would just keep blaming the shapeshifting Changelings. We don't have those kind of cheats for All In.

Besides going for the Mirror would require Selene to authorize such a thing anyways. She has veto rights on dealing with Celestia.
 
dcoconeo said:
Fair enough, though I really would not expect to get authorisation anytime soon for that myself.
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Depends on a couple of things.

For instance how confident is Selene to defusing the Celestia doomclock in time, how much ira she thinks it would cause Celestia (negative progess) and how much they think it would help delay Mastery.

Putting Lantern Mastery off reach for at least half a year would buy a lot of time given how Velvet could just speedrun Moth Mastery and get it by the end of turn 25.
 
Shaper47 said:
???

Those are completely different things.

We avoid the aftermath due to our Above All Suspicion trait, Celestia would just keep blaming the shapeshifting Changelings. We don't have those kind of cheats for All In.

Besides going for the Mirror would require Selene to authorize such a thing anyways. She has veto rights on dealing with Celestia.
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The Above All Suspicion Trait also has a warning above how scarce that trust is and a warning not to break it. Frankly I think you're giving Mareinette too much credit and Celestia not enough. Mareinette is good and the QM has hyped her up as one of his favorite characters, but she's not an instant win button.
 
des-pair-2 said:
Then you probably shouldn't vote for the option that will likely burn half our AP.
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I'm pretty sure AP does not matter in this case.
OurLadyOfWires said:
Looking for Biedde's pawns is not exactly in your radar at this exact moment. Due to a more pressing concern.
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I think we can just get Baldomare or Jade on this if we really want to, but this kinda looked like a "Velvet isn't thinking about this, so she won't take action."

And we still have till turn 25 before Biedde can be summoned again(if he is following the rules).
 
DelightedOne said:
I think we can just get Baldomare or Jade on this if we really want to, but this kinda looked like a "Velvet isn't thinking about this, so she won't take action."

And we still have till turn 25 before Biedde can be summoned again(if he is following the rules).
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Biedde can probably cheat those rules if he really tries but he has his own limitations.

Besides his pawns need to prepare for that kind of thing. Ritualists take time to create especially if your working from outside the wake.

I'd give it four turns before we should scry and send Smiles off with a bunch of wrong keys.
 
Also not till turn 26. Turns 23, 24, and 25 are needed for three full turns start-to-finish to have passed. And it's extraordinarily unlikely Biedde can enter the Wake unrestricted on turn 26.
 
I always thought summoning CD was a decision the names made not a rule they had to follow. Which is why for example DoA could ignore it, she wanted to be in the wake more actively (to look for the key).
 
ses said:
Also not till turn 26. Turns 23, 24, and 25 are needed for three full turns start-to-finish to have passed. And it's extraordinarily unlikely Biedde can enter the Wake unrestricted on turn 26.
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You do realize that their is no actual summoning cool down right. Biedde can be summoned at the start of next turn if the has someone able to do the ritual. The cool down is just the summons personal preference.
 
spiderhellian said:
I always thought summoning CD was a decision the names made not a rule they had to follow. Which is why for example DoA could ignore it, she wanted to be in the wake more actively (to look for the key).
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And why we can resummon her instantly now, without a cooldown. Anyway, at the end of the day, I think the main limitation for Biedde is going to be the lack of an actual, fully developed cult. Summoning a Name isn't a trivial (or cheap!) task, even if they want to be summoned, and it's going to be difficult for someone without proper cadre support, artifacts, or Velvet's omni-Lore bullshit to summon a Name.

As Bird said, we have bigger and much more immediate concerns right now, in the form of Celestia/Daybreaker. If we get lucky, and Selene either solves the problem or manages to delay it for long enough, then we can think about Biedde.

Speaking of which, that reminds me. @ses, where did your numbers for this come from?
ses said:
77.3% chance we aren't forced All In at end of turn 24. 31% that Selene manages to hit a 96 or higher before our Lantern clock runs out even without taking into account Celestia Progress. It's unlikely that Soothe the Sun can build up sufficient Celestia Progress before we win regardless, so I only cared about "Fix daybreaker" or "run out of time"
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The 77.3% chance of not being forced into All In at the end of turn 24 seems correct, but the "solve entirely" stat seems off? Selene's chance of hitting a 96 or higher on any particular turn is 9.75% (accounting for reroll), and her chances of hitting a 96 or higher across two turns should be ~18.6%, I think.
 
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Greymere said:
Speaking of which, that reminds me. @ses, where did your numbers for this come from?
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That was the chance of rolling a 96+ in general before running out of time, including on turns 25+ after rolling some number of 70+'s

And it makes me incredibly frustrated and angry when people assign capabilities to Biedde that not even the Master had, and expecting him to just completely disregard the rules in order to come kill us arbitrarily. Fuck, during the Master vote if I recall correctly it was even explicit the Master would have been stuck in the Mansus for 3 full turns if we had chosen to Wrong Key.
 
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ses said:
That was the chance of rolling a 96+ in general before running out of time, including on turns 25+ after rolling some number of 70+'s
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...so it's not actually a useful number for our purposes then, if you were arbitrarily adding time to the time limit.
 
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