Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

[Greymere]

[] Plan: A Song of Light
-[] (Detectives) Search for foreign threats
-[] (Constables) Expedition: The Quarry of Yuxtabai
-[] (Commissioner) Get your hooves dirty
-[] (Director) Heart
-[] (Mareinette) Honored Guest: Mayor Mare
-[] (Baldomare) Lantern lesson
-[] (DoA) Consult
-[] (Smiles-Free) Lead an expedition: Is It Free Real Estate?
-[] (Cherenkolt) Consult
--[] Recalibrate: Grail
-[] (Selene) Soothe the night
-[] (Jade) Study Moth 3 artifact
-[] Summon a Mare-in-the-Light
--[] In a barn on our estate
-[] Help Smiles (x2)
-[] Cover your bases (-5 Follower AP, +2 Velvet AP)

[] Plan: A Song of Even More Light
-[] (Detectives) Search for foreign threats
-[] (Constables) Expedition: The Quarry of Yuxtabai
-[] (Commissioner) Get your hooves dirty
-[] (Director) Heart
-[] (Mareinette) Honored Guest: Mayor Mare
-[] (Baldomare) Lantern lesson
-[] (DoA) Consult
-[] (Smiles-Free) Lead an expedition: Is It Free Real Estate?
-[] (Cherenkolt) Consult
--[] Recalibrate: Grail
-[] (Selene) Soothe the night
-[] (Jade) Study Moth 3 artifact
-[] Summon a Mare-in-the-Light (x2)
-[] Help Smiles
-[] Cover your bases (-5 Follower AP, +2 Velvet AP)

Both of these assume that the following will be use for Cover Your Bases: Risen, Servants, Rarity, Fluttershy, Smiles. The primary difference is that "A Song of Light" spends 1 DoA AP on summoning a MitL and 2 Selene AP on helping Smiles, while "Even More Light" spends 1 DoA and 1 Selene AP on summoning and 1 Selene AP on helping.

Alternatively, for those who don't wish to risk doing 3-circle summons in the barn:

[] Plan: Expeditions 'Hoy!
-[] (Detectives) Search for foreign threats
-[] (Constables) Expedition: The Quarry of Yuxtabai
-[] (Commissioner) Get your hooves dirty
-[] (Director) Heart
-[] (Mareinette) Honored Guest: Mayor Mare
-[] (Baldomare) Lantern lesson
-[] (DoA) Consult
-[] (Smiles-Free) Lead an expedition: Visiting a Competitor
-[] (Cherenkolt) Consult
--[] Recalibrate: Grail
-[] (Selene) Soothe the night
-[] (Jade) Study Moth 3 artifact
-[] Lead an expedition: Is It Free Real Estate?
-[] Help Smiles (x2)
-[] Cover your bases (-5 Follower AP, +2 Velvet AP)

As "A Song of Light", but with DoA on an expedition instead of summoning.

All three of these provide us with enough AP that we can spend 5 AP helping Cadance, or 4 AP helping and 1 doing something else if it swings that way. All three also assume that we are making the Forge reagent ourselves.

 

[ses]

Plan: Befriending and Soothing
-[] [DETECTIVES] The dangers in the dark come from outside of Ponykind as well. Listen to the rumors. Study the myths. Look for the threats from without. (Search for Expedition Sites for your later consideration. Additionally, keep an ear on the ground for other "foreign" threats)
-[] [CONSTABLES] Plan and execute a raid. Within Equestria, or anywhere else that is needed. (Quarry)
-[] [COMMISSIONER] Get your hoofs dirty. (Participate in the "Investigators" and "Constables" actions.)
-[] [DIRECTOR] Introduce another Lore to the Lunar Bureau. (Heart)
-[] [RARITY] Take a commission. (Gain at least 100 bits immediately, will "fail" her career roll)
-[] [JADE] Research an artifact (Moth 3)
-[] [BALDOMARE] Ask for a lesson on the Lores. (Lantern)
-[] [MAREINETTE] [FLEETING OPPORTUNITY] Have her aid Cadance.
-[] [AXE] Consult to the Lunar Bureau
-[] [CHERENKOLT] "Recalibrating." (Grail)
-[] [CHERENKOLT] Consult to the Lunar Bureau
-[] [SMILES] (TROUBLEMAKER) Tell him you need something broken. (Is It Free Real Estate?) (FREE ACTION)
-[] [SELENE] Soothe the night. (Her Winter realization. Unknown effects, if any.)
-[] Needs must. Ask somepony to procure you a dead body from the local cemetery.
-[] You need somepony to perform this ritual… (Summon a Mare-in-the-Light)
--[] To be performed... somewhere, where you hope nopony will catch wind of it.
-[] You need somepony to perform this ritual… (Summon a Mare-in-the-Light, sacrificing a Wrong Key)
--[] To be performed... somewhere, where you hope nopony will catch wind of it.
-[] (NEW OPTION) Smiles needs help with something, please go do what he asks... within reason of course. (Aid Smiles' Progression Bar. QM will decide who is optimal, unless you write-in the characters) 4x
-[] You need this to be done. Send a pony on an expedition. (Visiting a Competitor)
-[] One extra Velvet action! (Costs 2 follower actions)
-[] If summoning rituals or graverob fails, lose Visiting a Competitor, followed by Smiles actions

This gets us 5 Cadance AP, +10 Smiles progress from followers, and 2 MITLs and a Risen.

Yes, but it depends.

If you "Get your Hooves Dirty" and your investigator/constable actions are long and complicated, you might not help husk study at all. It will be a balancing act. Conversely, if your investigators and bureaus do well, and you only give them minimal aid, Velvet will use the extra time to help the Bureau in "secondary" actions like studying the husk.

"Try and find out" and all that.

As long as you understand getting your hooves dirty will prioritize contables/investigators, and that "the action to study the Husk is the action to study the Husk" you are fine.

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That makes sense, but I had been mostly wondering about our SH3 artifact that gives a notable bonus to Study actions

 

[Pittauro]

Sunday came and went, but finally the update is here

And good Baldomare knew everything, so how could she ever be wrong?

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Baldomare sometimes doesn't realize what she knows though. Like how she didn't realize she knew how to get through the Tricuspid!

"Very nice? Fluttershy, you look better than Cadance did at her own wedding."

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...FLUTTERSHY IS GETTING MARRIED (TO COMET)?!

...well, I'm happy for them. Comet took Stormchaser's advice in the end.

And to her own surprise, she found all of that to be… pleasant. Not exciting, but not just quaint either. Pleasant. She would even venture to say that she was in good company, and that she wouldn't mind staying there until the tea went cold.

The Wake, that Wake, did have a way of drawing them in, after all.

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...I somewhat regret taking this chance from Biedde...

"That makes sense, I wonder if Pride… well, that's not the point right now

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Let's not talk of that. Worth remembering Velvet still doesn't know about the Crime of the Sky though.

"That makes sense, I wonder if Pride… well, that's not the point right now," Velvet continued. "You also said you weren't sure what kind of tiara to put on this dress? Why not a laurel, or a crown of branches? And really, look at how lovely Fluttershy is. Why not call this piece something like a wedding in the garden, and name the rest of the series something similar to that?"

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...ah, she's only modeling for Rarity.

...shame

There would be no point in telling them that she shouldn't tighten Fluttershy's corset that much. It wasn't doing any harm at that moment, and Fluttershy herself would find out about it in a few weeks.

There would be no point in telling them that the brute Smiles was about to barge into Stormchaser's conversation with Comet. After all-

CRACK

"Did… did something just break somewhere?"​

-well, after all Baldomare never really liked the vase that just fell to the ground, when the Name barged into the nearby room.

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...truly, to be Baldomare is to know that you know nearly everything, and that yet you should share as little as possible most of the time.

I'm reminder of this one... story? html game? SCP? Not sure, it was about a "cursed" item, I think some kind of cap or jewel, that gives you advice on how to do things, and while the advice is never "perfect", it will ALWAYS be better than what you'd be able to come up with on your own.

Obviously, it becomes addictive. and as you get used to it, the item stops talking to you with words, and starts talking to you in a weird series of clicks you just understand.

And then, one day, the perform an autopsy on the person who wore this item, and apparently its brain had deteriorated so much from just following instructions that basically it would have been impossible near the end for that person to make ANY kind of choice. Because thanks to the instructions of this weird item he had basically lived most of his life on autopilot.

Baldomare is kind of like that item, but she knows better than to fully direct someone's life, basically.

And being able to read a few pages ahead is not the same as knowing what is going to happen.

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or to put it another way, if you remove the conflict in episode 4, then the MC might not be ready for the larger challenge in ep 10.

Since this was a mistake from the QM, and a reasonable interpretation from readers, I will explicitly "waive" the action point cost, since the alternative would be to reopen a vote with the clarification of "this should cost an action."
The results of the previous votes will stand, regarding Mareinette's Sacrament, and will be performed for no action point cost.

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uh. That's nice. basically one extra AP for us then, which helps a lot.

-The following Fleeting Opportunities will be available this turn:
--A silent crisis will happen in the Royal Castle, involving Princess Celestia. Princess Cadance will ask for your help. (May use as many personal actions as you wish. May use social actions and Mareinette).
--Uncle Steppes left you a contact. (May use social actions or Mareinette. Will not disappear, but will grow weaker every turn it is not picked)
--Filthy Rich confided to you that his relationship is failing. You have the option to do something about in order to completely gain his trust. (Free action)

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I'd love to take Uncle Steppes, but it's probably not viable.

Still, I have not quite fully given up hope yet. We DID invest a fair bit in getting his gift, and it should be something useful.

Bureau: well, we mostly decided to use the constables for one of our Name-related expeditions. Not sure beyond that.

It was just confusing since it seems like the sort of thing [OLD INTELLIGENCE] was made for to avoid Mareinette's action being worse than Velvet's at the thing Honored Guest was made to do. I honestly dont think the thread, and certainly not myself, would have minded if Mareinette had just picked an option herself last turn. But we're getting a free Velvet AP this turn so that is a helluva balm.


I feel pretty attached to "Make a forge reagent, Axe and Cherenkolt on Consult, Hoofs Dirty, 5 Help Cadance AP", but with the addition of the extra Velvet AP I dont think we necessarily need to go up to 6 Help Cadance... so what do we use Mareinette for?

Options:
Help Cadance
+5 Smiles
Mayor Mare
Heart lesson

I still think it's just plain irresponsible to prioritize Mayor Mare over helping Cadance. While I dont think going from 5 to 6 is a top level priority the way "Only dip down to 4 Cadance AP if we have no other choice" would have helping cadance be a priority for me, I dont think I could justify spending it on Mayor Mare just because we know her name. Similarly I dont think we take the Heart lesson over just getting the +5 Smiles out of the way now and freeing up AP next turn.

Do we still do 2 Cover Your Bases AP? I think we might not.

Attention: Secret Histories
Grail: Spoiled Rich
Forge: Forge 4
Winter: Torn Risen
Knock: Shattered Stairways
Social: Help Cadance
Velvet: Moth Sacrament
Velvet: Help Cadance
Velvet: Purify Forge Reagent
Velvet: Help Cadance
Bases: Help Cadance

Baldomare: Lantern Lesson
Axe: Consult with the Bureau
Axe: Summon a MITL
Mareinette: Help Cadance
Troublemaker: Manehattan
Smiles: Summon a MITL(Wrong Key)
Cherenkolt(Grail): Consult with the Bureau
Selene: Soothe the Night
Selene: Smiles
Selene: Smiles

Comet: Smiles
Rarity: Commission
Jade: Study Artifact (Moth 3)

MITL: Graverob
MITL: Manehattan
Risen: Cover Your Bases
Risen: Cover Your Bases
Servants: Smiles

Detectives: Windy Flakes/Search for Expeditions?
Constables: Quarry
Commissioner: Get Your Hoofs Dirty
Director: Heart


Something like this? There's no real point to the 2nd Cover Your Bases AP since Servants+Comet give +4 Smiles progress already, and the leftover MITL can just ferry a Name to a Manehatten expedition if both summoning succeed, and this way there's no awkwardness if one of them fails the 90% chance. This gives us 5 Help Cadance AP and +10 Smiles from followers, while probably getting an extra short expedition for studyables as well as keeping our flow of bodies going.

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seems like a good plan for the most part.

After this, if all goes well, Next turn we can any 2 of the following 3: "Baldomare SH, Baldomare Lantern, Personal SH", as we should have 2 Baldomare actions to use (on SH influence, on SH expedition, and/or on Lantern Expedition).

We should also be ready for the Cherenkolt, Baldomare AND Smiles friendship if all goes well...

then we'll probably have some loot to study, maybe we'll consider Forge/Winter sacraments too... but that's for later.

Awwww, Fluttershy is pregnant!

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...

It completely flew over my head.

Awwww, Fluttershy is pregnant!

After the glimpse we got of her future son, in a sadder history, that's very sweet.

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wait, when?

We have two data points now that the Wastes don't give us scraps. That's why. Might as well start work on the Stairways location.

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Well, it IS still a low-level area. Kind of surprising the Ash Ghoul are there, considering how strong they are all things considered. I suppose it's "balanced" by how unpractical they are to use.



I'll look at the other plans later on

 

[OurLadyOfWires]

...ah, she's only modeling for Rarity.

...shame

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...FLUTTERSHY IS GETTING MARRIED (TO COMET)?!

...well, I'm happy for them. Comet took Stormchaser's advice in the end.

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Ironically, my original draft went in another direction entirely.

Something along the lines of Rarity asking "so, when are you marrying tall dark and handsome?" and Fluttershy answering "we are not in that kind of relationship."
Only for, at the end, Comet Feet enter the room to take Fluttershy home, Baldomare mention vaguely about her condition, and Velvet and Rarity connecting the dots that "we are not in that kind of relationship" meant "we are the kind of ponies that skip marriage."

There was also going to be a short skit of Velvet asking Rarity why she didn't ask Velvet to model for that dress, and Baldomare's thought-seeing Lantern would let her see that Rarity's true answer was something along the lines of "seeing you in a wedding dress that I designed would be too painful of a forbidden fruit" or something dramatic like that.

But alas, the update came out as it came out, so none of that ever happened (as in, I just didn't have the time today to write all that)

 

[spiderhellian]

wait, when?

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Don't know the chapter, but it was the time Stormchaser and Comet got very drunk on Hawthorn wine, and a SH Sacramented-Stormchaser visited.

 

[ses]

Don't know the chapter, but it was the time Stormchaser and Comet got very drunk on Hawthorn wine, and a SH Sacramented-Stormchaser visited.

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[Threadmarks: There's not a word yet]

I'm reminder of this one... story? html game? SCP? Not sure, it was about a "cursed" item, I think some kind of cap or jewel, that gives you advice on how to do things, and while the advice is never "perfect", it will ALWAYS be better than what you'd be able to come up with on your own.

Obviously, it becomes addictive. and as you get used to it, the item stops talking to you with words, and starts talking to you in a weird series of clicks you just understand.

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"The Whispering Earring" short story by Scott Alexander

There was also going to be a short skit of Velvet asking Rarity why she didn't ask Velvet to model for that dress, and Baldomare's thought-seeing Lantern would let her see that Rarity's true answer was something along the lines of "seeing you in a wedding dress that I designed would be too painful of a forbidden fruit" or something dramatic like that.

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You got me messed up, stressed, depressed
Rotting in my bed, overthinking every single word you said
Cause I'm too invested, I feel possessed
Am I crazy for wanting us to be mutually obsessed?

Look me in the eye, say you need me to survive
Anything to make you mine, even if it's only one more night
So do you think life is hell and I'm your one stroke of luck?
Or do you know that I can tell that you don't really give a f-

Oh I think, I'm addicted, I'm addicted to love
I wanna scream, so conflicted, but you're making me blush
Oh-oh I think, I'm addicted, the adrenaline rush
I know you're lying to my face but I won't ever call your bluff
And I know that it's a waste of time
But I can't survive without the high
So-oh I think I'm addicted to the concept of us
But with the way you look at him, I know I'll never be enough

 

[Shaper47]

[] Plan: Moth Mastery
-[] Leash Spoiled Milk
-[] (Detectives) Analyse your options regarding the Changeling Colony
-[] (Constables) Expedition: The Choked City
-[] (Commissioner) Cadance
-[] (Director) Moth
-[] (Mareinette) Honored Guest: Cadance
-[] (DoA) Expedition: The Quarry of Yuxtabai
-[] (Smiles) Consult
-[] (Smiles-Free) Lead an expedition: Is It Free Real Estate?
-[] (Cherenkolt) Consult
--[] Recalibrate: Grail
-[] (Selene) Soothe the night
-[] (Jade) Study Moth 3 artifact
-[] (Rarity) Focus on her work
-[] Scry Moth 5 Book (x 3)
-[] Grab a corpse for a Risen
-[] Cover your bases (-2 Follower AP, +1 Velvet AP)

Can scry for (3 (followers ap) + 3 (Velvet ap) = 6) 6 level 5 moth books this turn. Do a bunch of expeditions and get Baldomare's Lantern Sacrament Turn 24 and achieve Moth Mastery Turn 25.

[] Plan: Befriending Smiles
-[] Leash Spoiled Milk
-[] (Detectives) Analyse your options regarding the Changeling Colony
-[] (Constables) Expedition: The Choked City
-[] (Commissioner) Cadance
-[] (Director) Moth
-[] (Mareinette) Honored Guest: Cadance
-[] (Baldomare) Lantern lesson
-[] (DoA) Expedition: The Quarry of Yuxtabai
-[] (Selene) The Quarry of Yuxtabai (2 AP)
-[] (Smiles) Consult
-[] (Smiles-Free) Lead an expedition: Is It Free Real Estate?
-[] (Cherenkolt) Consult
--[] Recalibrate: Grail
-[] (Selene) Soothe the night
-[] (Rarity) Focus on her work
-[] Grab a corpse for a Risen
-[] Cover your bases (-2 Follower AP, +1 Velvet AP)

4 Velvet Actions free for Smiles Befriending so 21/40.

[] Plan: Betraying Our Friend Windy
-[] Leash Spoiled Milk
-[] (Detectives) Analyse your options regarding the Changeling Colony
-[] (Constables) Expedition: The Choked City
-[] (Commissioner) Cadance
-[] (Director) Moth
-[] (Mareinette) Honored Guest: Cadance
-[] Scry Windy
-[] (DoA) Expedition: The Quarry of Yuxtabai
-[] (Selene) The Quarry of Yuxtabai (2 AP)
-[] (Smiles) Consult
-[] (Smiles-Free) Lead an assault: Windy
-[] (Cherenkolt) Consult
--[] Recalibrate: Grail
-[] (Selene) Soothe the night
-[] (Rarity) Focus on her work
-[] Grab a corpse for a Risen
-[] Cover your bases (-2 Follower AP, +1 Velvet AP)

Windy might have the Winter Heirloom which might help with Celestia.

[] Plan: Befriending Smiles and sending Selene to Dodge City colony
-[] Leash Spoiled Milk
-[] (Detectives) There are still changelings out there. Hunt them. Look for them, and for the ponies who colluded with them.
-[] (Constables) Expedition: The Choked City
-[] (Commissioner) Cadance
-[] (Director) Moth
-[] (Mareinette) Honored Guest: Cadance
-[] (Baldomare) Lantern lesson
-[] (DoA) Expedition: The Quarry of Yuxtabai
-[] (Selene) The Quarry of Yuxtabai (2 AP)
-[] (Smiles) Edge Influence on Selene
-[] (Smiles-Free) Lead an expedition: Dodge City colony
--[] Selene joins
-[] (Cherenkolt) Consult
--[] Recalibrate: Grail
-[] (Selene) Soothe the night
-[] (Rarity) Focus on her work
-[] Lead an expedition: Is It Free Real Estate?
-[] Cover your bases (-2 Follower AP, +1 Velvet AP)

Selene with Edge influence going all out will murder all the Changelings in the Colony. 120 bonus and hits everyone, probably some good loot and lots of Risen material.

Mareinette: 1

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Huh, I thought we got two actions from befriended Names (or equivalent) not one?

@OurLadyOfWires 2 ap for Befriended Mareinette or one?

Clarification on Bureau expeditions ap costs and Velvet corpse scrying would also be nice .

 

[Wise Wolf]

Once more, this is not the reason. It is to make sure the Wolf Cult won't get as much influence over Ponyville.

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Again, there's not any direct statement that this action will do that. As far as we have been told, all this does is keep "Mayor Mare ([ACQUAINTANCE])" on our contacts list. I'm not denying that narrative effects exist, but this sacrifices quite a bit just to save an innocent life. Mareiennete actions are powerful. If we switch that to Cadence, and drop one Velvet AP, we could instead have Smiles summon a MITL, Rarity earn us 100 bits, and Fluttershy help Smiles. I don't think we would be willing to sacrifice a MITL, 100 bits, and some Name befriending progress to save Mayor Mare. The price tag is too high for me.

Speaking of Name befriending...

Comet: Smiles

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You spelled Fluttershy wrong.

Fluttershy helping Smiles spread the good word of troublemaking and freedom is way too fun to skip.

 

[Pittauro]

There was also going to be a short skit of Velvet asking Rarity why she didn't ask Velvet to model for that dress, and Baldomare's thought-seeing Lantern would let her see that Rarity's true answer was something along the lines of "seeing you in a wedding dress that I designed would be too painful of a forbidden fruit" or something dramatic like that.

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...no.

Bird, you can't do this to me! You know I'm basically a RarityXVelvet shipper (I'm sorry Stormchaser!), you can't tease me like this!

 

[DelightedOne]

I'm not denying that narrative effects exist, but this sacrifices quite a bit just to save an innocent life.

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NOT. JUST. ONE. LIFE!

It is power we are ceding to Soft's cult, it is Influence we are letting go by letting them put Soft Sweeps(or somepony else from the cult) as the new mayor.

That vote should have been a lesson about not being willing to use AP when we need it. To not look for the easy way out because it has a cost higher than the alternative.

Instead it seems to have done the opposite and I am very much NOT willing to have this mentality make us have a bullet hole in our foot later.

 

[Wise Wolf]

NOT. JUST. ONE. LIFE!

It is power we are ceding to Soft's cult, it is Influence we are letting go by letting them put Soft Sweeps(or somepony else from the cult) as the new mayor.

That vote should have been a lesson about not being willing to use AP when we need it. To not look for the easy way out because it has a cost higher than the alternative.

Instead it seems to have done the opposite and I am very much NOT willing to have this mentality make us have a bullet hole in our foot later.

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First off, you're still relying on your own speculation about the relative impacts of the two paths. The QM did not say we were "ceding [power] to Soft's cult." That's your own inference. And I personally don't think it's likely that the cult will be much more powerful one way than the other. I also don't think that Softy as Major of Ponyville would have terrible metaphysical consequences anyhow. I don't think the stakes here are remotely worth 100 bits and a summon.

More generally.

The most common lesson I took from reading through this quest was not 'Velvet is unwilling to use AP on allies/friends/acquaintances/strangers'. Velvet spent a great deal of time doing that. It was instead 'Velvet is unwilling to use AP on climbing the mansus/befriending names/gaining power, and so is forced into hard decisions with Regrettable choices.' See, for instance, the Master deciding to let the wendigos "douse the lights" and destroying the Moth changeling artifact, triggering [Dies Irae]. Eventually leading to our current doom clock and then burning the Woods.

Why did the Master go scorched earth?

"If the Queen makes an enemy out of us, then time is precisely the one thing I do not have. The Moon Princess is not here, so she is certainly dead. Harmony, then, is unachievable. The cult, also, only has a hooffull of Branded. Perhaps their species' eyes have grown dull to the Glory, for they seem uninterested in seeking it. And the Moon… we have no idea of how to reach it. Only one path remains, then."

"Huh. Regrettable."

"Yes. The very definition of it."

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Because he was out of options. Because he couldn't find any way to stop the Worms. Because he couldn't find Luna (we'd hidden her), and because we'd spent precious little time improving the cult OR climbing for Glory ourselves, so a Mansus victory seemed impossible too.

Not seeking victory led to almost all of our current urgent problems, a regrettable action by the Master and at least one of our regrettable actions.

 

[DelightedOne]

First off, you're still relying on your own speculation about the relative impacts of the two paths. The QM did not say we were "ceding [power] to Soft's cult." That's your own inference. And I personally don't think it's likely that the cult will be much more powerful one way than the other. I also don't think that Softy as Major of Ponyville would have terrible metaphysical consequences anyhow. I don't think the stakes here are remotely worth 100 bits and a summon.

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You do realize neither of us actually knows what is going to happen right? So we are both speculating in the end, which would make this discussion useless since there is no way to know besides waiting.

But I don't think that stopping saying anything about this would be a satisfying resolution to this issue. Nor a wise one.

You are also correct that Soft Sweeps wouldn't be bad for Ponyville as a mayor metaphysically speaking.... The Daughter though, now that is an issue, look at what she has done with a grief group and wonder about what she can do with a growing town that is one of the only places of respite from Paranoia, meaning that many ponies that feel unsafe where they live will go there.

And I personally don't think it's likely that the cult will be much more powerful one way than the other.

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Oh no. Something like them learning how to climb surely was a fluke and won't happen again in a more serious tone, them mapping the Wastes also won't be relevant.

Large maps, of endless ashy wastelands with tentative paths drawn on them, were rolled up and stored out of sight. Bottles with dark samples, of oily blood or dry dust, were shoved into suitcases and pushed out of sight. And the several chairs that were spread here and there were gathered into a welcoming circle.

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And what was that about relying on your own speculation again?

The most common lesson I took from reading through this quest was not 'Velvet is unwilling to use AP on allies/friends/acquaintances/strangers'. Velvet spent a great deal of time doing that. It was instead 'Velvet is unwilling to use AP on climbing the mansus/befriending names/gaining power, and so is forced into hard decisions with Regrettable choices.' See, for instance, the Master deciding to let the wendigos "douse the lights" and destroying the Moth changeling artifact, triggering [All The Queen's Drones]. Eventually leading to our current doom clock and then burning the woods.

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That is exactly what I'm trying to prevent. Velvet needs to act more decisively, that is why I pushed for Smiles' offer. To gain power, to make a choice that will force us to stop trying to delay taking action.

Staying still and thinking our inaction won't give any negative results "since we didn't do anything, then no consequences will reach us" is exactly how we got jumpscared by the master.

It is funny how we are saying similar things but want to walk through different paths.

Not seeking victory led to almost all of our current urgent problems, a regrettable action by the Master and at least one of our regrettable actions.

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*Sigh* So close, yet so far. But I can only try.

Yes, this is supposed to be confusing. Don't try to question it.

And my apologies if this was too much. But I really got a bad feeling about not interfering with this, like letting the Master go without looking for him.

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

We could just do 4 Cadance Actions like we originally thought was needed instead of 5, but that is a gamble of unknown impact since we don't know what Velvet AP does with the meltdown.

 

[Shaper47]

We could just do 4 Cadance Actions like we originally thought was needed instead of 5, but that is a gamble of unknown impact since we don't know what Velvet AP does with the meltdown.

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I think that 2 Mareinette ap and 2 Velvet ap is pretty safe.

Mareinette ap is probably worth more for this afterall.

 

[ses]

We could just do 4 Cadance Actions like we originally thought was needed instead of 5, but that is a gamble of unknown impact since we don't know what Velvet AP does with the meltdown.

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4 Cadance AP vibe-matches to me as "Dont get unlucky". While 3 is probably "Get lucky" and 5 is probably something that rhymes with "Well yes obviously everyone explodes if you can't stop rolling nat1s, that's life, but you should be fine" I'd really prefer not to damn all of Equestria to death by sunfire because we couldn't pass an 80%'er after getting greedy. That's a net value expectation of thousands easily. More than all of Ponyville's civilian population combined, let alone a single pony who happens to be one of our Contacts.

Now, we could technically afford to do 5 Cadance AP and save Mayor Mare if we went all in on Cover Your Bases +2, and that's at least more defensible. But it's still irresponsible. We're going to be very hard pressed to Befriend Smiles next turn if we do that and don't highroll Soothe the Sun, as we'll have less MITL/Risen AP on turn 24 to CYB with and less progress on Smiles from this turn leaving us with very little wiggle room on reaching 40 points via Velvet AP. We'd have no margin whatsoever to accomplish anything besides bumrushing Smiles. That means no studying any studyables we find outside the main level 7 book, no AP to deal with curveballs the QM throws, probably can't even fit in a Redemption of the Forge to get back up to 3 HP before All In.

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

I think that 2 Mareinette ap and 2 Velvet ap is pretty safe.

Mareinette ap is probably worth more for this afterall.

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Mareinette only has 1 AP this turn.

 

[Shaper47]

Mareinette only has 1 AP this turn.

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I kinda think that's an error given how she's now befriended.

-I most likely missed things in this update, detail-heavy as it is, so kindly let me know if I need to fix something

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However my plans still work though if we need to throw another Velvet ap to make 1 Mareinette ap and 3 Velvet ap on Cadance.

Still enough Velvet ap to scry for the moth books to reach Mastery and it will just be 16/40 instead of 21/40 for Smiles Befriending

 

[Wise Wolf]

You do realize neither of us actually knows what is going to happen right? So we are both speculating in the end, which would make this discussion useless since there is no way to know besides waiting.

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Yes, but one of us is saying his speculation like "I personally don't think it's likely"...

*Sigh* So close, yet so far. But I can only try.

Yes, this is supposed to be confusing. Don't try to question it.

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Is it supposed to be condescending too?


Anyhow, back to the actual choice here.

That is exactly what I'm trying to prevent. Velvet needs to act more decisively, that is why I pushed for Smiles' offer. To gain power, to make a choice that will force us to stop trying to delay taking action.

Staying still and thinking our inaction won't give any negative results "since we didn't do anything, then no consequences will reach us" is exactly how we got jumpscared by the master.

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It does seem to me that your choice is not moving us toward victory. It is playing defense, not offense. Having 100 more bits, a summon, and closer to befriending Smiles are all things that help us win. Keeping Mayor Mare alive and limiting the Daughter's influence (insofar as we can) are playing to not lose. They don't increase our power. They don't help us All-In. They don't help us in Malleary.

Do you see it differently?

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

I kinda think that's an error given how she's now befriended.



However my plans still work though if we need to throw another Velvet ap to make 1 Mareinette ap and 3 Velvet ap on Cadance.

Still enough Velvet ap to scry for the moth books to reach Mastery and it will just be 16/40 instead of 21/40 for Smiles Befriending

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She's not befriended until her Sacrament is completed, and I don't think Names give the bonus AP on the turn they are befriended anyways.

As for Mayor Mare, this is why I preferred telling Softy she has a cult now and show her the ropes to running it. Would have been a wonderful Mother-Daughter Apprenticeship. We're giving Selene a Cult, after all! Silky got a Name! It'd only be fair for Silky to know she has a Cult too!

 

[Shaper47]

She's not befriended until her Sacrament is completed, and I don't think Names give the bonus AP on the turn they are befriended anyways.

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Well she's befriended before the turn, as in the between turn so after turn 22 but before turn 23.

Here, Mareinette's Sacrament was offered "in between turn" in a way that could be reasonably understood as being a free action.

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So she's befriended before turn 23.

So she's going into turn 23 as befriended.

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

Well she's befriended before the turn, as in the between turn so after turn 22 but before turn 23.



So she's befriended before turn 23.

So she's going into turn 23 as befriended.

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That's a good point, have you already asked the QM if that is correct?

Because if we actually have another Mareinette Action that will handle settle current debates regarding a certain Mayor.

 

[ses]

Mareinette is not currently befriended. We know that she is not currently befriended because there will be a big in-story hullabaloo and Plot Stuff and the QM throwing us some kind of horrible curveball like he did for the "simple and non-problematic biedde sacrament", followed by some kind of big dramatic narrative moment where Mareinette becoming befriended is made very very explicit onscreen.

She will then give us 2 AP a turn starting the turn after that happens.

How can you say you've befriended her when there hasn't even been a Threadmark with a special name like "Threadmarks: The Rajanaga of the Velvet Estate". You do know we get a specially named Threadmark every time we gain a Confidante or Befriended Name, right?

 

[Wise Wolf]

Mareinette is not currently befriended. We know that she is not currently befriended because there will be a big in-story hullabaloo and Plot Stuff and the QM throwing us some kind of horrible curveball like he did for the "simple and non-problematic biedde sacrament", followed by some kind of big dramatic narrative moment where Mareinette becoming befriended is made very very explicit onscreen.

She will then give us 2 AP a turn starting the turn after that happens.

How can you say you've befriended her when there hasn't even been a Threadmark with a special name like "Threadmarks: The Rajanaga of the Velvet Estate". You do know we get a specially named Threadmark every time we gain a Confidante or Befriended Name, right?

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Threadmarks: Steak or Blake; A Puppet's Guide to The Feast

 

[OurLadyOfWires]

You just put Mareinette on the "Talk" verb and placed your "Temptation" card on the slot, and you guys finishing the previous vote was you literally pressing "Continue."

Give it time.

Or rather, literally let her cook.

Mareinette is not befriended yet.

 

[Shaper47]

That's a good point, have you already asked the QM if that is correct?

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Yep

Huh, I thought we got two actions from befriended Names (or equivalent) not one?

@OurLadyOfWires 2 ap for Befriended Mareinette or one?

Clarification on Bureau expeditions ap costs and Velvet corpse scrying would also be nice .

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Of course it could be that Mareinette is using one of her ap for the Grail Sacrament for turn 23.

So she could be befriended before turn 23 but still give only one ap for turn 23.

 

[spiderhellian]

-[] (Detectives) Search for foreign threats

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-[] [DETECTIVES] The dangers in the dark come from outside of Ponykind as well. Listen to the rumors. Study the myths. Look for the threats from without. (Search for Expedition Sites for your later consideration. Additionally, keep an ear on the ground for other "foreign" threats)

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Why do this over Investigating Windy (makes sense with us getting our hands dirty) or Dodge City follow-up? This seems a very low-value action, unless I'm missing something.

 

[Shaper47]

We have two data points now that the Wastes don't give us scraps. That's why. Might as well start work on the Stairways location.

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Err, no we don't.

We have a few data points that exploring new areas in the Wastes probably won't give scraps.

However the wording on explored areas of the Ashen Wastes and Hunting Grounds implies the ability to gain moth and edge scraps from visiting similar to the ability to gain SH scraps from that area in the Blank Plains.

--[] [MANSUS] Stalk the Ashen Wastes. The alternative is to be stalked.
--[] [MANSUS] Visit the Hunting Grounds, and pray that tonight you are the huntress rather than the hunted.

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Play some hide and seek to get moth scraps, play fight to get some edge scraps.

 

[ses]

Why do this over Investigating Windy (makes sense with us getting our hands dirty) or Dodge City follow-up? This seems a very low-value action, unless I'm missing something.

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I agree with you but it seemed like thread mood was anti-Windy due to "risk of alerting him", and it's not an important enough action for me to stand ground over it compared to getting votes to ensure we dont take risks on Cadance as well as go into next turn ready to befriend Smiles with plenty of extra follower AP and a decent amount of Smiles Progress already made.

I'm not really super happy with the plan doing a 2nd manehattan expedition either, but I thought that having the last AP be something extremely easy to drop if one of the summons failed would reduce the chance of the QM having issues with the vote since it does 2 MITL summons and implicitly uses one of the MITLs to graverob.

And dodge city is a zero value action, so that's lower than the low value of expedition search.

 

[spiderhellian]

And dodge city is a zero value action, so that's lower than the low value of expedition search.

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If we've got ~1 turn left, it's zero value, but so is everything else. Fine.

If we've got ~2 turns left, it's very marginally worse, because maybe we have an expedition worth doing. Feels absurdly doubtful, but fine.

If we've got ~3+ turns left, I'm not entirely sure we want to just totally ditch Dodge City? In that it has potential rewards (see Tall Tale, which was smaller than this) + feels off to utterly ditch the requirements of the Lunar Bureau?

I agree it's probably more likely than not we have less than 3 turns left. But I think when weighing benefits it's worth considering both value assuming we get that far and the chance we do get that far -- and that Dodge City probably wins out on that level.

 

[ses]

If we've got ~1 turn left, it's zero value, but so is everything else. Fine.

If we've got ~2 turns left, it's very marginally worse, because maybe we have an expedition worth doing. Feels absurdly doubtful, but fine.

If we've got ~3+ turns left, I'm not entirely sure we want to just totally ditch Dodge City? In that it has potential rewards (see Tall Tale, which was smaller than this) + feels off to utterly ditch the requirements of the Lunar Bureau?

I agree it's probably more likely than not we have less than 3 turns left. But I think when weighing benefits it's worth considering both value assuming we get that far and the chance we do get that far -- and that Dodge City probably wins out on that level.

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If we have more than 3 turns left it's because Selene fixed the Daybreaker issue and therefore there will likely no longer be an extermination order for the changelings. We have confirmation that they aren't planning an attack on ponies any time soon and are trying to evacuate the country. We can slow-walk the next step on changelings for the 3 turns it takes for Daybreaker to be solved. Therefore changelings are now zero value.

"Build your opponent a golden bridge to retreat across."
― Sun Tzu

It seems intuitively obvious to me that if the changelings are trying to retreat and aren't planning an attack, and we very obviously can go 2-3 turns going "It's on my desk" while putting no actual effort into changeling extermination other than making mouth noises about how hard we're working on it (we delayed Tall Tale for 2 turns and nothing came of it, and we just had a big win), then therefore we should not spend our resources getting into an existential war of survival with the changelings?

Honestly I'm half-tempted into having Selene try to establish a line of communication for Velvet and the changeling leadership to coordinate how they will keep their heads down and not draw any attention to themselves until the whole "Celestia wants to genocide you" thing blows over. It's better for Velvet, the changelings, Equestria's civilian population and future-Celestia herself after she's had her Snickers for the issue to not be forced right now and for the Bureau to spend its time looting crystal skulls from ancient temples instead.