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Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

Could we also use the prisoner for the Moth Sacrament?
I mean we could I guess, but we've already set up Spoiled for it, and if we have the option I'd rather use the mind-dead pony for the cannibalism ritual, especially if it means we get to reassign some Name AP to more productive ends.
 
but we've already set up Spoiled for it, and if we have the option I'd rather use the brain-dead pony for the cannibalism ritual, especially if it means we get to reassign some Name AP to more productive ends.
But if he is a Minion and we do Moth him we can still use him for Grail since we have a prison or will have a prison.
 
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Do we really need a prison if we do them in the same turn? (Did i ask this before?)

Would the prisoner even be able to escape? Or want to?
That depends on how blank his mind is I guess. Or if the Moth Sacrament messes with his mind and makes him panic and we need to restrain him.

I also just want a prison to finish preparing Jade's house. I really want that loose end to disappear.
 
We did this to gain bits guy, no throwing away bits as loot.
Well, i assume that they will be taken care of and be helped by others, so if that's the case...

[] Plan: Compromising more than only a little
-[] (MAP) Let the Bureau have it.
-[] (PRISONER) Take him.
-[] (LOOT) I will steal from the poor, innocent pony prisoners.
-[] (THING) Capture it.
 
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Yeah assuming that he's brain dead and won't recover barring some kind of miracle.... this is as ethical a source of living sacrifice for cannibalism we'll ever get. I wouldn't mind being told we can't take back the Cherenkolt AP since we DID commit to a plan but an emergency cancelling of Axe's request to kidnap somepony would be AMAZING even if we didn't get it refunded

-[] (LOOT) I will steal from the poor, innocent pony prisoners.

Gee, rub it in why don't you. Fine, you win bird we dont get bits this time.

I'm really tempted to take the risk on capturing the Thing. Failure doesn't actually implicate Velvet in any naughtyness after all... it only means that the Thing ends up in Eclipse's hoofs... where the Grail lore might distract them from their Lantern studies. And we could potentially learn a lot from it and/or repair it into our own pet gribbly.

Also hilarious at the QM potshots at the redeemed changeling character designs. I laughed.
 
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Some thinking on reward options:

The Map

This is peculiar. It's a lot of studying, and additional fragments feel distant -- so I'm not sure about taking it ourselves. Though we do have another study-one-book action left in the turn, which rolls with +84-94. Plus our lantern reroll is still available AFAICT. That averages ~120 progress after taking into account the reading penalty. That's ~2/5 of the way...

The alternative is giving it to the Bureau. This makes sense, but the issue is that... do we really want the Bureau digging into Changelings more? This was the big proto-hive -- and not only did we crush it, but it was more a place to recover as they search for [a queen? home? somewhere to be long-term?] than a base of concerted action. The Changelings just don't feel like a threat, especially when Windy and Neighnea are out there. Just... being, malevolently.

I'm kind of torn. Being able to read it this turn really does cut the progress required down... and we don't have much else in the way of useful things to read...

The Prisoner

Seems pretty certain we take 'em. It might mean we can't Leash Spoiled -> Moth Sacrament next turn? That's a little painful, since I think that Sacrament is our best opportunity to get Filthy as Confidant as well...

What do we do with them, great question, I am quite curious to find out what the options are!

The Loot

Eh. 53 bits is useful... But it does just seem kinda pathetic.

The Diseased Thing
This is really interesting.

We're already on a bit of a collision course with Eclipse, and taking it a live precipitates that. But I'm not sure it would necessarily play out negatively -- it seems reasonable we might collaborate, or get some credit with them that could be useful in the future. Taking it dead is more likely to keep our options open, but also makes it less potentially useful.

Hmmm. After reflection, I'm a little worried about the potential accelerant to Eclipse, here. Which are the biggest threat to Us extant (I think Neighnea and Windy are bigger threats to Equestria, but hopefully don't have it out for us in particular?). So maybe I settle on taking it Dead -- it's an argument for leaving it, even.
 
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Plus our lantern reroll is still available AFAICT.

We burned our Lantern reroll in the assault checking over the prisoners.


Hmmm. After reflection, I'm a little worried about the potential accelerant to Eclipse, here. Which are the biggest threat to Us extant (I think Neighnea and Windy are bigger threats to Equestria, but hopefully don't have it out for us in particular?). So maybe I settle on taking it Dead -- it's an argument for leaving it, even.

Eclipse just isn't a threat on the race to Glory from generic acceleration in the Lores. We're too close to all-in for them (And Grail/Knock wont help Midday reach the Branding Door and see our Brand)
 
How Delightful
How Tragic

Oh my poor poison bloom! If only this were another history, another story, another moment and another time!
How I would adore your fronds. How I would learn of your branches. How your bones would twist and squelch and bend!
LANTERN

Alas I cannot steal you away in the night. I cannot hide your rapturous body. I cannot ferry you away on the night wind.
Too thick is your root. Too firm is our cage.

What a Sacrament you would have made.
Another time.
 
Oops, mis-read, good catch.

Eclipse just isn't a threat on the race to Glory from generic acceleration in the Lores. We're too close to all-in for them (And Grail/Knock wont help Midday reach the Branding Door and see our Brand)
It's not the race to the Glory. It's that Eclipse is Celestia's means of progressing Lantern levels, and that is our capital-D Doom Clock.
 
Some thinking on reward options:

The Map

This is peculiar. It's a lot of studying, and additional fragments feel distant -- so I'm not sure about taking it ourselves. Though we do have another study-one-book action left in the turn, which rolls with +84-94. Plus our lantern reroll is still available AFAICT. That averages ~137 progress after taking into account the reading penalty. At that point, it's not that far off...

The alternative is giving it to the Bureau. This makes sense, but the issue is that... do we really want the Bureau digging into Changelings more? This was the big proto-hive -- and not only did we crush it, but it was more a place to recover as they search for [a queen? home? somewhere to be long-term?] than a base of concerted action. The Changelings just don't feel like a threat, especially when Windy and Neighnea are out there. Just... being, malevolently.

I'm kind of torn. Being able to read it this turn really does cut the progress needed in almost half, that's significant.

The Prisoner

Seems pretty certain we take 'em. It might mean we can't Leash Spoiled -> Moth Sacrament next turn? That's a little painful, since I think that Sacrament is our best opportunity to get Filthy as Confidant as well...

What do we do with them, great question, I am quite curious to find out what the options are!

The Loot

Eh. 53 bits is useful... But it does just seem kinda pathetic.

The Diseased Thing
This is really interesting.

We're already on a bit of a collision course with Eclipse, and taking it a live precipitates that. But I'm not sure it would necessarily play out negatively -- it seems reasonable we might collaborate, or get some credit with them that could be useful in the future. Taking it dead is more likely to keep our options open, but also makes it less potentially useful.

Hmmm. After reflection, I'm a little worried about the potential accelerant to Eclipse, here. Which are the biggest threat to Us extant (I think Neighnea and Windy are bigger threats to Equestria, but hopefully don't have it out for us in particular?). So maybe I settle on taking it Dead -- it's an argument for leaving it, even.
Nah, our Lantern reroll's been used up. Still an average progress of ~140 - 150ish, I'm not sure what would have been left behind at the Main Hive, since I'd assume the cult would have claimed anything valuable when they stormed through... but I think it's more likely than here (which, as we saw, contained no artifacts or bits at all beyond what was on the prisoners).

Re: the blank prisoner, I'm pretty sure we're allowed to switch the Leash mid-turn when its current target stops being valid. Which if the Leashee is dead then... yeah. So Grail -> Switch Leash to Spoiled -> Moth.

Honestly, what I'm worried about regarding the diseased thing is if this thing really is some Crowned Growth shit... uh, do we really want to risk exposing our only barely-Lore'd Bureau and the even-less-Lore'd Eclipse to something that's potentially contagious and infused with the power of the assimilation mushroom?

Edit:
Oops, mis-read, good catch.


It's not the race to the Glory. It's that Eclipse is Celestia's means of progressing Lantern levels, and that is our capital-D Doom Clock.
It's a Grail/Knock monster, I don't think that's going to help them with progressing Lantern.
 
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Honestly, what I'm worried about regarding the diseased thing is if this thing really is some Crowned Growth shit... uh, do we really want to risk exposing our only barely-Lored Bureau and the even-less-Lore'd Eclipse to something that's potentially contagious and infused with the power of the assimilation mushroom?

That seems really doubtful. The description makes it clear that it's the canon "redeemed changeling" character design, and the changelings are experimenting with reverting their Curse and returning to their original Mansus species. Which ironically makes the Changelings with only Wood-species to have survived ASH.

There's just no reason for it to be otherwise, and the superpower of "I have read the cultsim wiki" being the difference between us walking into a horrible danger and not would not fit any of the previous experience of the quest, which has never once rewarded readers for knowing cultsim lore beyond the basics of the basics. In fact it goes out of its way to avoid rewarding cultsim meta-knowledge beyond the most barebones surface.
 
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That seems really doubtful. The description makes it clear that it's the canon "redeemed changeling" character design, and the changelings are experimenting with reverting their Curse and returning to their original Mansus species. Which ironically makes the Changelings with only Wood-species to have survived ASH.
Uh. What?

Thins large changeling, this former "husk", looks like… it looks like a diseased flower, or a mockery of an alien fungus. The chitin of its body has mostly slouched off, but instead of its innards you see what appears to be large petals.

Its head, also, is on the wrong spot. As if you had caught this creature in the middle of a long metamorphosis, and for all that its limbs had begun to shift around tis twisting body, it had not yet reached whatever final configuration it was supposed to. Its head was on the wrong spot, its legs were twisting and sprouting, into roots or glowing leaves, and its wings were nowhere to be seen.
Last I checked, the canon 'redeemed' changelings didn't look like alien fungus, or sprout flowers, or turn into a glowing plant, or lose their wings.
 
I used Claude to make a quick dice-rolling simulator. Deciphering the Map isn't really that hard, assuming we get started this turn...

It takes 3.27 Velvet rolls, on average, or 2.17 if we use Jade to help next turn.

That's like, a small chunk of one study action. We could possibly get away with studying the Map + the Moth Artefact next turn, or it's 2 Moth studies + some sort of book.
 
I used Claude to make a quick dice-rolling simulator. Deciphering the Map isn't really that hard, assuming we get started this turn...

It takes 3.27 Velvet rolls, on average, or 2.17 if we use Jade to help next turn.

That's like, a small chunk of one study action. We could possibly get away with studying the Map + the Moth Artefact next turn, or it's 2 Moth studies + some sort of book.

I don't think Jade ever doesn't "Study Artifacts". Even if all we cared about was saving Velvet AP, Jade Studying an Artifact is 0.5 Velvet AP, while Studying a Book is 0.33 Velvet AP.

I suppose next turn we could do

Attention: Lantern
Social: Contact Somepony?
Velvet: Moth Sacrament
Velvet: Grail Sacrament
Velvet: Beyond the Map's Edge
Velvet: Study Books (Map, Map, Map)
Jade: Study Artifacts (Moth 3)
Mareinette: Mayor Mare


On the subject of the Thing. We do in fact really want Grail scraps so we can actually hit the 4/4 normal scraps to hit Grail 5. So burning the body I think is out of the question. Eclipse getting access to Grail lore isn't the end of the world either, so the risks dont seem too bad. I do want to capture it but I could see just killing it instead.
 
Grail/Knock wont help Midday reach the Branding Door and see our Brand
It's a Grail/Knock monster, I don't think that's going to help them with progressing Lantern.
I wonder if distracting Celestia with other lores to level up would work?
Uuuu, that's nice. Now I want to capture it even more, Celestia needs to start studying more than Lantern.

I know we don't have a definitive answer here. We likely won't -- we don't know how Eclipse functions. But I don't think accelerating Celestia/Eclipse's Lore progress will ever slow down her Lantern progress, or do anything but accelerate it.

It feels like one of those too-clever-by-half arguments. I don't really think Eclipse is being simulated with that level of detail; I think it's plausible that the more promising projects they have the more they'll get resources and the corresponding progress; the stakes are high (this is our Doom Clock) and I think it's not worth risking.
 
Also, I put a "[1/6]" on its title to make it even clearer that this is the beginning of something. But please let me know if you would like that removed from the title. I'll respect your desire to make your path more elusive, if that is the case.
I'm still a bit embarassed I totally failed to understand it was an ARG and I was just searching for a link in that post 😅

You have better things to do.

And you do not have time for these questions.


And you don't even realize how small you are, compared to those presences, when you quietly agree with them.

As if you had any choice in the matter.

Influences, as in the name, influence our actions.

But I think Velvet is wrong here. She DOES have a choice, always. It's just that... well, does Influences are nudging her to do things she doesn't inherently disagree with.

Now, if we were under an Influence-of-kill-Silky, THEN I'm pretty sure she'd disagree.

Of course, it's also true that she's small when compared to those.

Sometimes, the choice you're left is just to obey or die...

A large and oppressive part of you tells you that they are not enough to be deemed the protectors of these lands.

And a smaller, quieter part of you agrees, thinking that they are also not enough to be a worthy band of followers for your daughter.
Give them time. They'll learn and get better, as long as we survive.

This is all a waste of time. You did not need anypony else to be here. Or maybe, you shouldn't have come at all. Still, the fact remains that both you and the Bureau being here at the same time is redundant at best, and wasteful at worst.
We'll see. There's things many weak people can do, that a single strong person can't, and vice-versa.

And hey, we're here for (hopefully) LOOT.

If this was any other situation, a small part of your mind tells you, you think you would have tried your best to encourage them. You would have told them that today is the day you strike back against the monsters that bled Ponykind, and that today the purpose of the Lunar Bureau will at last begin to be realized.

But as your piercing gaze looks down at them, you feel your frown crumble into a glare. And that strict and oppressing part of your mind smothers down any other thought you might have.

You find them unworthy.

But for your daughter, you will make them worthy.
I truly wonder... what do the bureau members that know Velvet in her normal days think, when they see her under Influences? And then, again, when she goes back to "normal"?

It must feel so weird...

"But never forget that each and every one of you has already failed."

You say that, and the meaning behind your words is obvious.

Your words strike them like a hammer. But deep down, you don't think anypony here thinks differently.
Harsh, but not untrue.

Everyone remembers Canterlot Burning. And the sun growing both hotter and more distant.

"You thought yourselves to be fighters and protectors. But I have no need for those anymore. From now on, I need soldiers and killers."
I'm really, truly sorry for the Changelings. We know from MLP what it could have been...

"That mountain belongs to the Princesses," you say. "Kill anything in it that isn't a pony."
And I remember that once, Velvet had to suppress a thought... that the changeling that died by her hoof did not FEEL like a monster.

and yet, she's now cold. Sharp.

Because Velvet Covers will be "running against the clock" to outpace the Bureau, and because the proto-hive will be assaulted while she is in there, special rules will apply. Velvet Covers will only have one chance to locate and secure anything that could be to her benefit, and will have to move on deeper into the hive if she fails that first attempt.
Well, for the first time we now have a really GOOD reason to NOT fail our rolls in an expedition.

Well, a BETTER reason than usual, I mean.

let's see if we're lucky. We have two influences, rerolls for everything except Heart...

It should be enough.

Naturally, mountains are hazardous places to begin with. It is hard for non-fliers to access them, and their caves are filled with monsters as often as their depths are packed with precious minerals. So, you have no doubt that the changelings infesting this one mountain had to fight their way in, and that they either chased off or killed whatever territorial beast used to call it home.

But that is the crux of it. The fact that only one of the mountains of Tall Tale are currently infested (the others, your agents checked, are still filled with its aggressive fauna) tells you that the changelings had enough number to take one mountain, but that they are not numerous or aggressive enough to take over the others.

And this entire operation was planned with that in mind.
This actually makes it MORE likely we might find a "worthy opponent" here, I think. Assuming changelings can count, which I think they should.

The Red Team, which is a single team of your seven best ponies, is currently making its way to the top of the mountain. They have Steady Step, your fledgling Forge specialist, with them, and they will quite literally blow their way into the mountain through an unexpected angle as soon as the assault begins. Their mission, naturally, will be to reach as deep into the hive as they can, as quickly as they can, to secure any high-priority targets they find.

-Armor and gear becomes particularly reliable. Explosives, handled by a select few experts, are fielded more frequently. The Lunar Bureau as an institution will operate with the maximum Forge level available.
Forge 2 does its work for the Bureau. As well as Edge 1.

We'll see what Lantern 2 helps with.

The Blue Team is composed by runner-ups. Ponies who are impressive enough fighters to be trusted with the front lines, but not good enough to reach the peak of Red Team. At this point you have close to five full squadrons of ponies that make up Blue. They will be the face of the Bureau's horseshoes as it kicks into the hive. The moment everypony is in place and Salt Rope gives the signal, they will assault the hive through its largest caves and known entrances.
I imagine the Red Team has all or at least most of our Edge 1 followers...

But after more careful consideration, you decided on something else.



[Infiltrating the proto-hive, CD 60]

[Roll: 46 + 12 (Intrigue) + 20 (Moth level 4) = 78]
And we pass the first challenge, WITHOUT using the moth reroll. nice.

Passing by a pair of shivering changelings without a sound or a whisper.
I REALLY feel sad for them...

[Velvet Covers is immune to cold, challenge ignored]

[Velvet Covers is immune to darkness, challenge ignored]
uh. First time we get EXPLICIT mention of those narrative bonuses in an expedition. I wonder if we would have otherwise rolled two more obstacles. Or maybe it makes us avoid maluses in future rolls? It would make sense.

This might actually be the first time we get mechanical benefits from the moth realization. Or from the anti-cold part of our winter one, really.

You know... I kinda wonder if there's a chance that Velvet might find, and somehow decide to spare, the changeling children (assuming there's any).

Morally, killing children is wrong, and they can be "rehabilitated".

Pragmatically... bureau super-spies for the future. They'd be an invaluable asset, either fed on criminals or, hopefully, "ethically" through volunteers, maybe.

Love spells and potions are a thing. Maybe volunteers could drink those to help feed the changelings?

[Avoiding detection – outskirts, CD 60]

[Roll: 87 + 12 (Intrigue) + 20 (Moth level 4) = 119]
And the second challenge is passed too, again without using the reroll!

There are no patrols of changelings to speak of. In fact, you have seen very little activity so far. But you do find pairs of changelings, sometimes huddled with each other, posted on certain places.

Ironically, you begin to use them as guideposts to make your way deeper into the tunnels. And given how you can see them shiver, you are not surprised by how easily you can make your way past them.
And Bird continues to make me feel sorry for them...

[Something interesting? – outskirts, cd 75]

[Roll: 48 + 12 (Intrigue) + 20 (Secret Histories level 4) = 80]
and we pass the third challenge, and... it seems we're about to find something interesting!

You have located "Exploration efforts?" It will be available for you to make a decision at the end of your foray.
you TEASE! 😡

[Avoiding detection, and also… – depths, breakpoints 80/110]

[Roll: 37 71 + 12 (Intrigue) + 20 (Moth level 4) = 103]

[Moth re-roll invoked, first breakpoint reached]
and we use our first reroll... but only get to the first threshold.

Still, good enough, hopefully.

This means, you are absolutely certain, that the assault has begun. The assault has begun, and the frightened changeling currently chittering on the center of this cavernous hall must be the runner who is raising the alarm.
I guessed as much, really. It's been long enough.

Hopefully we'll be able to use the distraction.

But there is nothing you can do right now, but remain hidden and wait for the commotion to… not to die down, but to stabilize into something you can navigate.

So, you are forced to watch, helpless, as the alarm-raiser rushes deeper into the hive.



[Second breakpoint not reached, you were unable to ambush the alarm-raiser]
ah, so we could have stopped the alarm, making things easier for the Bureau... and maybe for ourselves.

Well, not the best result, but acceptable. My guess was the second threshold was to continue moving on instead of hiding and (presumably) losing time.

[Something interesting? – depths, cd 80]

[Roll: 44 51 + 14 (Learning) + 20 (Secret Histories level 4) = 85]

[Re-roll invoked]



[Break or Enter?, cd 100]

[Roll: 89 + 13 (Magic) + 25 (Knock level 5) = 127]
We found something else interesting, and we manage to... get inside something?

Well, that's good, even if we had to use the SH Reroll.

Still, all going well enough so far...

[The prisoners, and their belongings, breakpoints 50/120]

[Roll: 52 + 12 (Intrigue) + 20 (Lantern level 4) + 40 ("A Splendour") = 124]

[Final breakpoint reached]



… you find ponies, yes. Some dead, most alive, all unconscious.
...well, the influence is pulling its weight. We found prisoners to save.

But one of them, to your absolute surprise, carries something… within his mind. Something you can… interact with, even.

You make your decision, and then you move on.



You have located "A victim, or an experiment?" It will be available for you to make a decision at the end of your foray.
someone with talent? someone touched by an artifact, maybe?

Or... if we were at 4/4 Lantern, I'd guess it's a potential target for our Sacrament...

Good, you think to yourself. You are glad this place is alive. You are glad that, more than a mere gathering, their hive has an identity to it.

It will only make it easier to kill.
ouch. I'm going to cut myself on all this edgy edge!

[Avoiding detection, and infiltrating – depths, breakpoints 50/100/150]

[Roll: 97 + 12 (Intrigue) + 20 (Moth level 4) = 129]

[Second breakpoint reached, unable to infiltrate final chamber, but surprise will be possible]

Well, the final tier was quite literally impossible without an influence, really.

So I imagine we get close, and might get a chance for the final chamber later?

[Rolling for changelings]

[5d4: 1 + 4 + 2 + 1 + 3 = 11]



This is it. This is the last corridor, of the last hall, of the deepest point of this hive.
ok, so maybe the thresholds were "fail to ambush / ambush / skip patrols completely"?

But you can tell, from the animalistic logic that the changelings operated, that his is the place they are trying to stop the invaders from reaching.
...the nursery? the civilian's refuge?

And since this tunnel is too narrow to sneak through, and the group's panic is not great enough for you to take advantage of, you will have to go through them in the only way that really matters.



[Ambush?]

[Attacker's roll: 25 + 9 (Martial) + 20 (Edge level 4) + 40 ("A Resolution") = 94]

[Defender's roll: 66 + 12 (Changeling, leader) + 10 (Alert, under invastion) = 88]

[Attacker wins. Defenders will be caught by surprise, and "one" new defender will join combat per turn]

we BARELY won. we rolled really poorly here.

And of course Edge does not offer re-rolls outside of combat either.

[The changelings have been surprised. Only "one" of the gathered changelings will reinforce their leader per combat turn]
oh.

...that's going to hurt. We roll +69 vs his +12 after all. AND the first roll of combat also gets a reroll.

As long as we're not too unlucky, it should be an easy fight.

[Changeling leader has been killed]

[All currently-engaged changelings killed, present combat ended, Edge re-roll reset]

[Due to the nature of this, "ambush" bonus is retained, and changelings will have to roll to not break and run]
...damn. He lasted two rolls.

Velvet is a monster.

and as combat is reset... we get the rerolls AGAIN if combat resumes.


If we fight them one at a time, AND get the reroll each first roll... then yeah, we'll massacre them! We even have that extra -5 on their rolls to help!

I imagine they'll break and run before they get a chance to inflict a lucky wound (...yeah, I'm probably tempting fate).

You are right on top of your target, time slowing down to a halt as your hoof dashes towards the back of its exposed neck.

They haven't noticed you yet.

Poor them.

[Changeling-1 has been killed]
And the second one doesn't last more than the first one. And three ran away.

that's 5 out of 11 dealt with...

It was a command, and perhaps an advice, from a monster who acts like a pony.

"This is something that can still make me bleed. I recommend you get used to wielding it by the time I return."
You think you understand those words better, now, as a whiff of your foreleg on the monster's neck was enough to see its head flying. And as your hoofs hit the ground with a hissing, cutting noise as if you were skating on ice.
Yeah... right now, Velvet can make Biedde bleed. What chance to mere changelings have against something like that?

[Four changelings have disengaged and run away]
only 2 left...

[Overflow: Velvet Covers – 97, Changeling-2 – 0]

[Changeling-2 suffers one wound (-50 to Velvet Covers' overflow)]

[One changeling reinforces combat]

[No parties attempt to flee, combat will continue]
so close!

well, one is nearly dead, and the other will soon be.

Shame we won't get one more reroll though.

That is a question you will leave to the Bureau's morticians.
stone cold...

[Velvet: 33 + 69 (total combat bonus) – 5 (outnumbered) = 97]

[Changeling-2: 88 + 10 (total combat bonus) = 98]
🤣

It will be hilarious if this is the only point they end up scoring.

(it will be less hilarious if they manage an actual wound. with TWO rolls against one of ours, the odds are less in our favour now).

[Changeling-2 has been killed]

[No changeling left to reinforce combat]

[No parties attempt to flee, combat will continue]
oh, damage doesn't overflow to the other changeling, sadly.

But still, it's now 1v1.

It's all going according to keikaku.

Keikaku means plan

You feel a hint of a fang barely scratch against your side-


-SNAP-


-but you clamp your forelegs around its neck before the beast can bite any deeper, its face facing the wrong direction as its body hits the ground.
Remember, this was the day you ALMOST managed to scratch Velvet Covers!

[Overflow: Velvet Covers – 9, Changeling-2 – 16]

[No parties attempt to flee, combat will continue]
2 wounds, and most importantly, next round we get a new reroll.

With two rerolls and him nearly dead... the battle is basically over.

But a disappointed tsk coming from somewhere nearby compels you into action once again.
Sorry Biedde sempai! We're still an inexperienced mortal, forgive our moment of unforgivable hesitation...

although the monster now has one less foreleg to work with.
ouch.

[Changeling-3 has been killed]

[Combat ended]
And it's done.

and, most importantly, we didn't get wounds OR use AotL bonuses.

It hisses something, a tone that could almost be described as pony-like panic coating the noise as you raise a foreleg.

But you don't even bother looking at its expression as you bring your hoof down on its neck.
and, again, I wonder just how much Edge... nudged Velvet away from recognizing that those changeling were not monsters, but people.

I wonder if she'll have something like a PTSD / panic attack once the influence goes away...

[What in Equestria is this?, breakpoints 50/100/120]

[Roll: 51 + 14 (Learning) + 20 (Lantern level 4) + 40 ("A Splendour") = 125]

[Final breakpoint reached]



… you find something that, to your disgust, seems to be tapping into the principles of the Lores.



You have located "The diseased Thing" It will be available for you to make a decision at the end of your foray.
...well, it's NOT a nursery or civilians.

That's good, I suppose.

AND we passed this!

A diseased thing... I wonder... maybe the Moldywarp's stone survived in some corrupted form?

Or maybe they were somehow creating some artifact somehow?

I don't suppose it could be something like a not-fully-formed Ash-ghoul...

The assault on the Proto-hive of Tall Tale was a success.
A SUPER success, at least for Velvet specifically.

We found all the extra loot, and we won without wounds.

It went as well as we could have reasonable hoped, with the only small annoyance being that we used the SH and Moth rerolls. Hopefully we won't need them elsewhere.

with a single lethal casualty in Blue Team being reported
...that's REALLY impressive numbers. Like a perfect mission on Xcom.

On the changeling side, the body count has already reached over a hundred.

No living changelings were removed from the proto-hive.
well, we got a K/D ratio of more than 100 to 1. I'd say we can be satisfied.

Surely even Edge Velvet can give them at least a passing grade?

And I think that we haven't even done anything suspicious enough to REALLY alert Eclipse. The Terror is easily dismissed, and the most impressive thing Velvet did was basically avoiding trouble.

[Sorting the prisoners, CD 20/40/60/80/100]

[Roll: 5 12 + 15 (Bureau) + 30 (Lantern 6 total) + 40 (Velvet Covers "A Splendour") = 97]

[Velvet Covers invoked a re-roll]

SO CLOSE! We rolled kinda badly right at the end... the reroll didn't even have us go up a threshold, even without using it we still would have made the second highest... we only needed a 15...

Still, I can't complain too much. It's a shame we basically barely missed on a perfect run (rerolls notwithstanding). I wonder what the difference would have been here. Maybe we would have gotten some loyal minions from the rescued? Maybe someone important that would reward us, like a minor noble or wealthy merchant?

Our ponies were drilled to comply with that. And the logic behind it is sound. We just can't risk somepony who was out of sight and later "rescued" be one of them.
ah...

I missed the obvious.

OF COURSE changeling would try to mix with the prisoners. So I supposed we got nearly all of them, but at least one (or maybe a bare few) got away?

But after the dust settled, the Commissioner herself joined in the processing of the capture ponies.

A few changelings were found amidst the prisoners, pretending to be good ponies. But more importantly, the Commissioner herself signed off on the identity of the Bureau guards that Lucky Brush hadn't cleared. And more importantly, she authorized the release of the civilians who did not need medical attention.

It is impossible to be sure, with these monsters. But at least… well, harsh as the Commissioner may be at times, she isn't a monster herself.

See attached a recommended list of requests for Eclipse, as well as….






[Fourth breakpoint of success reached, no popular backlash from Tall Tale, no morale backlash from Bureau operatives]
ah, so this was at least partly a roll for negative consequences for our reputation.

Makes sense.

Also... THIS might give some suspicion to Eclipse. After all, Velvet has explicitly screened out some changelings.

That IS a bit suspicious.

[Locating the doppelgangers, CD 25/50/75/100/125/150]

[Roll: 61 + 15 (Bureau) + 20 (Secret Histories 4 total) = 96]

effectively middling. Still, not horrible.

I imagine we failed to get ALL of the changelings from the city? Or maybe we didn't get them "cleanly"?

The ones who resisted were taken dead, as per the Commissioner's orders.

See attached the lists of addresses of…


...



[Third breakpoint reached, some changeling infiltrators in Tall Tale were located, but not to a conclusive extent]
...some?

Does that mean we DID get some prisoners alive?

I wonder what their fate will be. I'm guessing they'll be shipped to Eclipse for who knows what kind of experiments and "interrogations"...

Finally, the Commissioner congratulates each and every one of you for your brave service.

Time-off periods have been ordered (see the table below), and additional time-off requests will be approved upon request (after submission to your ranking officers).

Furthermore, by order of Commissioner Velvet Covers, all constables must report for psychological screening. This being the first large-scale operation ever conducted against monsters, newer standards will be introduced to ensure the mental health of our ponies.

Please see below for instructions on…






You have introduced the Lore of Winter to the Lunar Bureau, with the requisite "Institutional Knowledge" being produced.
So we introduced Winter by... forcing mandatory psychological evaluations?

I'll take it. That adds Winter 1 to the Bureau.


I'll comment on the loot in a different post...
 
Their bestial complacency disgusts you, but you don't have time to waste either.

They haven't noticed you yet.

You single out the largest changeling instead.

They haven't noticed you yet.

You kick your hindlegs against the ground, jumping over the group as you make a vaulting beeline towards your target.

They haven't noticed you yet.

You are right on top of your target, time slowing down to a halt as your hoof dashes towards the back of its exposed neck.

They haven't noticed you yet.

hisoka-run.gif
 
I personally think we should just destroy the map. I feel really bad for the Changelings, and I kind of want to give them a chance to just leave Equestria and hope that time will mend the wound of the Canterlot Fire enough that this will end in something other than genocide.

Plus, we're pretty busy, and there are probably more valuable targets for us to raid.
 
I personally think we should just destroy the map. I feel really bad for the Changelings, and I kind of want to give them a chance to just leave Equestria and hope that time will mend the wound of the Canterlot Fire enough that this will end in something other than genocide.

Plus, we're pretty busy, and there are probably more valuable targets for us to raid.

I don't know if that's the exact words I would use but there is wisdom in the Art of War

"Build your opponent a golden bridge to retreat across."
― Sun Tzu

It's unclear on if the 0/300 Expedition book will even have rewards worth the study actions, and Velvet AP being spent on studying it is... a hefty cost. And spiderhellian has a good point that we probably do want to spend the Bureau's AP on self-dealing shenanigans next turn.


Another reason to Capture the Thing though, is that this is possibly our single best lead on restoring something of the Woods. We don't know if we'll get another chance if we destroy this one. Hopefully detection rolls won't be made until next turn and we can quickly teach the Bureau Moth.
 
This map, crude as it is, seems to be an attempt for them to map their surroundings. They weren't building a hive in Tall Tale, they were gathering in Tall Tale because they were lost.

And in that room you found a map of the surrounding area, yes, with clear indication that they were sending out scouting parties.

But the thing they were truly looking for was… their own home.

And this map, crude as it is, has hints of what they were looking for. The landmarks they were familiar with, the characteristics of the place they were spawned.

This stone carving, crude as it may be, is the first clue you ever discovered of the whereabouts of the true changeling hive.
...The changeling hive our cult destroyed? THAT Changeling Hive?

...I wonder what we can find there. Maybe what's left of the Moldywarp's stone? Maybe some newly crafted winter artifact from all the death?

The remains of the Changeling Throne, capable of negating not-changeling magic?

-[] (MAP) Destroy it.
-You have no interest in pursuing this loose end.

-[] (MAP) Take it for yourself.
-You will gain the Non-Lore book "The Way Home (Fragment)," which has a "-20 (Confusing)" malus for study, and a "0/300" progression bar to it. Finding other Fragments (if they exist) would greatly help you study this book.
-The Lunar Bureau will not suspect, or know, about you taking this item. It is portable enough for you to take it without any issues.

-[] (MAP) Let the Bureau have it.
-The Lunar Bureau will gain a lead on locating the original Changeling Hive.
-You will still have the option to study it with your Bureau-related actions, but you will have to share your discoveries with the Lunar Bureau (and potentially other parties, such as Eclipse and Princess Celestia herself).

And here's the first question. I don't think we have any interest in "Destroy", but do we want to do this ourselves or leave it to the bureau?

Letting the Bureau find the hive would mean revealing more, if indirectly, about the cult that managed to destroy the changelings. Probably better not to.

Then again... maybe the surviving changelings went back and have rebuilt their home?

But so was his mind.

Maybe the changelings, emotion-feeders as you suspect them to be, feed too deeply on this one? Maybe they were experimenting with him, with suggestions or magics or something else that can affect the mind?

You do not know, but nor does it matter.

This one, you can tell, is suggestible. This one, you can tell, can be shaped.

You only need to fill his empty mind with something, and then make sure he will know to search for you once he is free.
oh, I get it.

an easy natural minion. Either they emptied them by accident, or maybe to try and turn them into a sleeper agent.

-[] (PRISONER) Take him.
-You will Leash this pony, and come next turn he will present himself to you as a Minion.
-Given his curious state, you will have the opportunity to learn more about him. But more importantly, you will be able to influence (vote and decide) on certain characteristics about him.
-Your family and workers will not suspect this, and your friends will not find it strange. You will take precautions to ensure that. But you simply don't know enough about this pony to predict anything else.

-[] (PRISONER) Leave him.
-He was a victim and a prisoner. You will leave him here, and after the Bureau rescues him he will be free.
This is, quite clearly, morally wrong.

and yet, we could use a minion. and we don't HAVE to be cruel to our "tools"...

Damn, if we really wanted to, a Minion is a valid target for either Mareinette grail, personal moth, or personal lantern... though those would be really cruel decisions.

mh... I wonder if using him for the Moth sacrament would ACTUALLY be cruel here, or could be seen as "setting him free" though. There's potential, it would allow us to NOT sacrifice Spoiled Rich, allowing us to instead keep both of the Rich as confidants...

You also found some personal effects on the prison. Bits and baubles, jewels and personal effects you can smuggle out.

Will you?


-[] (LOOT) I will steal from the poor, innocent pony prisoners.
-You will gain [rolling…] 53 bits.
-Nopony who can punish you will ever learn about this.

-[] (LOOT) I will do the right thing, and not steal.
-You will not gain any bits.
Look, we saved their life, and D&D taught me the most sacred rule of "Finders Keepers" and "The loot is ours by right of shup up!"

You had suspected that a larger specimen of their kind would be in charge. And you were right, at least partially.
so a "failed" or "incomplete" queen?

Still, you must decide what to do with it. Time is passing, and the sound of fighting draws ever closer. If you had come here by yourself or with your followers, perhaps, you would have had more options.
I wonder what options... Maybe turn it into a minion, like the prisoner? Or sacrifice it for an impromptu ritual, maybe.

-[] (THING) Kill it, and burn its corpse.
-You will kill this thing with your own hooves, and you will dispose of the evidence before any of your constables arrive.
-No other faction will learn about the existence of this creature, or will suspect that others like it may exist (if they do).

do we have any reason to keep this a secret from the bureau? I can't think of one.

-[] (THING) Kill it.
-You will kill this thing, but the Lunar Bureau will bring its body back for study.
-There is a chance that Eclipse will learn of it, and "confiscate" it for Princess Celestia. Alternatively, you can offer them the body yourself. Or Eclipse might not learn about it, and you will have a chance to study its body.
-The Lunar Bureau will learn of this creature's existence, and will be aware of this kind of thing during future changeling operations (if others like it exist).

Better. I suppose we might not want to let Eclipse get better by studying this though. They have a source of Lantern, this could give them a source of Knock and Grail at the very least...

-[] (THING) Capture it.
-It can barely move under its own power, and the Bureau has the means to move it. Have the Lunar Bureau take this thing into its custody.
-There is a great chance that Eclipse will learn of it, rank as it is with the Lores. And you are sure Princess Celestia would confiscate it if she ever learned of it.
-You cannot predict how quickly things would move, or where the chips will fall, if you decide to let the Bureau capture this thing alive.

mh... I don't trust Eclipse and Celestia with this. Not as they are, and not as WE are.

-[] Kidnap it (OPTION NOT AVAILABLE)
-The cordon around the mountains is too tight, you designed it yourself. You will not be able to smuggle this thing for your own use or study without being seen.

shame. We probably could have turned it into a Minion, or into a ritual sacrifice. Maybe if we had the Forge Sacrament we could have even used it for that.

I'm leaning Kill It, and try to have the Bureau get some use out of it.


So, I'm leaning Keep the Map, Leash, Take the Bits, and Kill it.

Time for work I guess. Hmmmmmmm, Bureau or destroy it(I still pity the Changelings, they were dealt a really bad hand).
Why would you not keep it?

Even if we didn't want to study it ourselves, it gives us a chance to, if we find others, easily unlock the original changeling hive as a potential expedition site...

Oh, hello there excuse I needed to pursue Velvet's Grail Sacrament. I want to leash.
We need 3 minions for that. I could accept this one, but what about the other two?

I suppose there's in theory Rarity (with Leash) and Jade (if Velvet accepts her as a minion in all but name)...

but, hey, we made a commitment to Mareinette. It's really too late for Velvet's Grail Sacrament, even if we wanted to go for it.

mh... I kinda wonder... @OurLadyOfWires if we had somehow achieved Velvet's Grail Sacrament before meeting Mareinette, would friendship with her have become impossible? Or would we have needed to do the dinner with no other benefit from it?

No stealing from prisoners, that is just sad and pathetic.
we need the bits, and we just saved their lives. They can manage to lose a few bits and jewels or whatever.

@OurLadyOfWires Just checking, neither Sorting the Prisoners or Screening for Doppelgängers would qualify as a project involving the effort of several ponies? Administering the processing of lots or people, cross-referencing sources from Tall Tale, coordinating capture and/or restitution..?
That's a very good point! It would make a major difference!

I mean we could I guess, but we've already set up Spoiled for it, and if we have the option I'd rather use the mind-dead pony for the cannibalism ritual, especially if it means we get to reassign some Name AP to more productive ends.
But is it actually mind-dead, or just extremely pliable? Basically, Is it still a person?

and Spoiled and Filthy together are potentially useful as confidants, for their bits and business contacts if nothing else, as well as influence in ponyville...

Probably more useful then a nobody minion, really.

We did this to gain bits guy, no throwing away bits as loot.
for once I agree.

I'm more conflicted about what to do with the prisoner.

I'm leaning towards taking him, but... for Moth Sacrament? as a permanent minion?

...to eat him? Not if he's a person with still a sense of self, I'd say...

This is peculiar. It's a lot of studying, and additional fragments feel distant -- so I'm not sure about taking it ourselves. Though we do have another study-one-book action left in the turn, which rolls with +84-94. Plus our lantern reroll is still available AFAICT. That averages ~120 progress after taking into account the reading penalty. That's ~2/5 of the way...
Good point. though I'll remind that studying the Edge book brings the Bureau's edge to 2, so that's the main alternative.

That said, the remaining roll means we COULD finish studying this book next turn... and maybe even leave a roll leftover for the moth 3 or Knock 2 artifacts in our inventory (1 book + 1 artifact per roll, or 3 books, or 2 artifacts).

The alternative is giving it to the Bureau. This makes sense, but the issue is that... do we really want the Bureau digging into Changelings more? This was the big proto-hive -- and not only did we crush it, but it was more a place to recover as they search for [a queen? home? somewhere to be long-term?] than a base of concerted action. The Changelings just don't feel like a threat, especially when Windy and Neighnea are out there. Just... being, malevolently.
Don't underestimate them, this was ONE proto-hive. There could be more, or more dangerous. Given time they COULD reorganize, eventually, and the bureau is always busy...

I still lean taking the map for ourselves though, and killing the thing.

Eh. 53 bits is useful... But it does just seem kinda pathetic.
It's basically an extra minor expedition. I'll take it.

Seems pretty certain we take 'em. It might mean we can't Leash Spoiled -> Moth Sacrament next turn? That's a little painful, since I think that Sacrament is our best opportunity to get Filthy as Confidant as well...

What do we do with them, great question, I am quite curious to find out what the options are!
Keep both Spoiled and FIlthy as Confidants, Moth this one?

It could even be a way to "set him free" from our Leash, potentially.

Then again, it feels likely that the response to "your savior and master pulls off the mask and abandons you" is suicide rather than making a new life...

We're already on a bit of a collision course with Eclipse, and taking it a live precipitates that. But I'm not sure it would necessarily play out negatively -- it seems reasonable we might collaborate, or get some credit with them that could be useful in the future. Taking it dead is more likely to keep our options open, but also makes it less potentially useful.

Hmmm. After reflection, I'm a little worried about the potential accelerant to Eclipse, here. Which are the biggest threat to Us extant (I think Neighnea and Windy are bigger threats to Equestria, but hopefully don't have it out for us in particular?). So maybe I settle on taking it Dead -- it's an argument for leaving it, even.
on the other hand it might be a distraction from researching the lore of Lantern?

But it's also a way for Eclipse to find more ways to recognize the unnatural things Velvet and the Bureau do..

I used Claude to make a quick dice-rolling simulator. Deciphering the Map isn't really that hard, assuming we get started this turn...

It takes 3.27 Velvet rolls, on average, or 2.17 if we use Jade to help next turn.

That's like, a small chunk of one study action. We could possibly get away with studying the Map + the Moth Artefact next turn, or it's 2 Moth studies + some sort of book.
True.

Basically depending on the roll next turn, and following turn, we'd likely get (with 1 more AP next turn) either this map + the moth 3 sacrament, or the map + the edge book (for bureau +1 to edge).

Or maybe we'll get another book worth reading this turn instead.

It's unclear on if the 0/300 Expedition book will even have rewards worth the study actions, and Velvet AP being spent on studying it is... a hefty cost. And spiderhellian has a good point that we probably do want to spend the Bureau's AP on self-dealing shenanigans next turn.
To be fair, it's likely it would be a single Velvet AP. But fair point on it potentially not being worth it.

Then again... Bird kind of pointed out we normally just assume that Expedition = Loot, and that's usually true for Velvet expeditions.

Could the Hive really be just an action sink?

I think there's something of value there. but is it of ENOUGH value?

Another reason to Capture the Thing though, is that this is possibly our single best lead on restoring something of the Woods
I'm sorry, WHY would this help in restoring the Woods? I don't get it
 
Damn, if we really wanted to, a Minion is a valid target for either Mareinette grail, personal moth, or personal lantern... though those would be really cruel decisions.
Bah. And again, Bah I say!

What is there to learn from reading a blank book?
What is there to taste from gnawing the bones of another's meal?
What is there to hide from a face who never knew?

By strict definitions these may apply, but what an unsatisfying resolution they would bring.
 
I'm more conflicted about what to do with the prisoner.

I'm leaning towards taking him, but... for Moth Sacrament? as a permanent minion?

...to eat him? Not if he's a person with still a sense of self, I'd say...

Update specifically says his mind is blank. He's as ethical a source of grail sacrament as we can possibly find.


And I absolutely refuse to dedicate an entire 1/3 of a Velvet AP to bumping the Bureau by a single level 1 edge book. The difference of +5 personal combat on some constables a turn sooner is not worth being AP inefficient over. We will eventually find a higher level Edge book we want to read for its own sake or write up an Edge manuscript post-Sacrament.

I'm sorry, WHY would this help in restoring the Woods? I don't get it

The Changelings are originally from the Woods, and are the only Woods-Species to not have gotten, uh, extinct. From Ash. And this is clearly the changelings experimenting with returning to their Woods-origin (Note the petals and roots the Thing is sprouting. The Original Changelings were Mansus wood-beings)

Bah. And again, Bah I say!

What is there to learn from reading a blank book?
What is there to taste from gnawing the bones of another's meal?
What is there to hide from a face who never knew?

By strict definitions these may apply, but what an unsatisfying resolution they would bring.

Frankly it's miles better than "random pony we asked Axe to snatch off the street", which is the current alternative on offer.
 
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