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Why do this over Investigating Windy (makes sense with us getting our hands dirty) or Dodge City follow-up? This seems a very low-value action, unless I'm missing something.
As for the Changeling Colony by Dodge City, well, we personally know that the Changelings' grand plan is to fuck off with all possible haste,
"I also heard of your findings in Tall Tale. As well as the attempt against your life," she says.
"… it seems you have quite a lot on your hoofs," she finishes.
And you are not sure if this means she just does not care, or if this is yet another test to see what you will do next.
I can see the future unfolding, and in it we "can't target detectives at Windy because it will scare him" and so take the much gentler action of not doing anything related to Windy instead
Hmmm...
@OurLadyOfWires Can we target our detectives at Neighnea?
We've been told that Bureau expeditions will play out differently than conventional ones, and I think this is overly-confident when we haven't seen even one unfold.I do think you're not giving expeditions enough credit though. We're probably going to have constables do an expedition every turn for the rest of the game and expeditions have given us oodles of loot each and every time.
Tbf, the entire reason we might have it do expeditions every turn is that there are 2-3 turns left.We've been told that Bureau expeditions will play out differently than conventional ones, and I think this is overly-confident when we haven't seen even one unfold.
...I will also be sad if the Bureau meets the same "Time to make us [resource] again, dear!" fate as Rarity, and don't really want to plan for them to play out that way.
If we don't save Mayor Mare, we only take one cover your bases action. That lets Rarity make us bits, Fluttershy have fun times with Smiles, and Smiles summon a MITL for future turns. So the opportunity cost of saving Mayor Mare is 100 bits, sacrificing a Mare in the Light, and not getting to read Fluttershy helping Smiles proselytize troublemaking.We mostly seem committed to 2 cover your bases actions. So 6 Velvet and 7 with the social. The only for sure actions are purifying the regent and the moth sacrament. If we're not using Mareinette for the expedition, which we don't really need to, she's available for that or Cadence. That means we could potentially toss 5 at Cadence and have one left over.
If we don't save Mayor Mare, we only take one cover your bases action. That lets Rarity make us bits, Fluttershy have fun times with Smiles, and Smiles summon a MITL for future turns. So the opportunity cost of saving Mayor Mare is 100 bits, sacrificing a Mare in the Light, and not getting to read Fluttershy helping Smiles proselytize troublemaking.
That last is a sacrifice I am not prepared to make.![]()
Greymere has 2 tentative plans that allow us the save her and summon a Mare in Light. How many did you plan to summon. Sure we're not as worried about suspicion now, but it seems a little unwise to summon multiple this turn. The bits are good, but we are already saving money by having the Bureau foot the bill on one expedition.
Besides you're assuming Comet would let her help Smiles, you know he'll take charge there, especially if he knows/finds out she's pregnant.
I'm highly anchored to 2 MITL summons this turn. One from Smiles saccing a Wrong Key and one from Axe. That gets us
Servants: CYB
Risen: CYB
Risen: CYB
MITL: CYB
MITL: CYB
Comet: Graverob
Rarity: Commission
Jade: Research Moth 3
I suppose we just lose a Selene +3 smiles AP if one of the summonings fails?
This is by far our best available use of their Name AP. It's not even close. There's nothing else Smiles can do this turn that's better than this, and Axe's only competition is Wrong Key crafting which we dont need to do this turn.
No, sorry if it came across as condesceding.
Tracking down the Master also would have been playing defense, and not offense.It does seem to me that your choice is not moving us toward victory. It is playing defense, not offense. Having 100 more bits, a summon, and closer to befriending Smiles are all things that help us win. Keeping Mayor Mare alive and limiting the Daughter's influence (insofar as we can) are playing to not lose. They don't increase our power. They don't help us All-In. They don't help us in Malleary.
Do you see it differently?
Unless Selene defuses Daybreaker, I don't think there's any realistic way that we're going to have the time or desire to do... whatever with him, across this and next turn. Searching for new expeditions at least has some potential to pay out before we go for All In, if our deadline gets extended to T25 at the end of this turn. Or rather, we will have the time if we're willing to make time for it, but I don't think we'll want to.Why do this over Investigating Windy (makes sense with us getting our hands dirty) or Dodge City follow-up? This seems a very low-value action, unless I'm missing something.
We can very comfortably summon a MitL and save Mayor Mare and still have 5 AP on helping Cadance and make +6 progress on Smiles. The only real opportunity cost is the 100 bits which is... eh? We're probably going to end up doing commission next turn anyway, if we don't do it this turn.If we don't save Mayor Mare, we only take one cover your bases action. That lets Rarity make us bits, Fluttershy have fun times with Smiles, and Smiles summon a MITL for future turns. So the opportunity cost of saving Mayor Mare is 100 bits, sacrificing a Mare in the Light, and not getting to read Fluttershy helping Smiles proselytize troublemaking.
That last is a sacrifice I am not prepared to make.![]()
Even at +6 progress this turn, we're not nearly as hard pressed as you think. We'll have two Mareinette AP next turn, which is +10 right there. Another +6 from Selene. And we'll have 5 - 6 mortal follower AP (+2 each) to throw at it, depending on the Leash situation at the end of this turn. And the +2 from passive progress.Now, we could technically afford to do 5 Cadance AP and save Mayor Mare if we went all in on Cover Your Bases +2, and that's at least more defensible. But it's still irresponsible. We're going to be very hard pressed to Befriend Smiles next turn if we do that and don't highroll Soothe the Sun, as we'll have less MITL/Risen AP on turn 24 to CYB with and less progress on Smiles from this turn leaving us with very little wiggle room on reaching 40 points via Velvet AP. We'd have no margin whatsoever to accomplish anything besides bumrushing Smiles. That means no studying any studyables we find outside the main level 7 book, no AP to deal with curveballs the QM throws, probably can't even fit in a Redemption of the Forge to get back up to 3 HP before All In.
The Master was one of the biggest threats to us in the setting; a Name with agency, who was operating in the Wake, and who we had betrayed.Tracking down the Master also would have been playing defense, and not offense.
It was still something that we really should have done. And unlike with Windy, we can't really take any other steps to potentially counter their influence besides making sure that Mayor Mare is a) the one in charge, and b) on our side.
We are sacrificing three Follower AP. If you don't want to spend them on bits and an extra MITL and a Smiles assist, that's fine; but your opportunity cost still needs to be whatever you assign Fluttershy/Comet, Rarity and Smiles to do. And Smiles is a Name; his AP is pretty valuable even if you don't think a full extra MITL is the best use.We can very comfortably summon a MitL and save Mayor Mare and still have 5 AP on helping Cadance and make +6 progress on Smiles. The only real opportunity cost is the 100 bits which is... eh? We're probably going to end up doing commission next turn anyway, if we don't do it this turn.
In all likelihood, we are either going to win or lose in the next three turns. We don't need Baldomare to tell us that we should still defend against threats relevant in that timescale (Daybreaker), and otherwise prepare to win. It's basic strategy.Personally, I reject the playing to win/playing to not lose paradigm Baldomare set before us. That's just the mercilessness of her Lantern talking. Heart will have you know that playing to never lose is in fact a winning strategy of its own!
I don't really consider not doing commission this turn to be an opportunity cost, because either a) we don't end up needing the bits at all for All In and thus it was unneccesary in the first place, or b) if we do need the bits for whatever reason, then we'll just do it next turn.We are sacrificing three Follower AP. If you don't want to spend them on bits and an extra MITL and a Smiles assist, that's fine; but your opportunity cost still needs to be whatever you assign Fluttershy/Comet, Rarity and Smiles to do. And Smiles is a Name; his AP is pretty valuable even if you don't think a full extra MITL is the best use.
Just wanted to point out that you are missing the Leash vote in all of these plans. Which leads me to a question.[] Plan: A Song of Light
-[] (Detectives) Search for foreign threats
-[] (Constables) Expedition: The Quarry of Yuxtabai
-[] (Commissioner) Get your hooves dirty
-[] (Director) Heart
-[] (Mareinette) Honored Guest: Mayor Mare
-[] (Baldomare) Lantern lesson
-[] (DoA) Consult
-[] (Smiles-Free) Lead an expedition: Is It Free Real Estate?
-[] (Cherenkolt) Consult
--[] Recalibrate: Grail
-[] (Selene) Soothe the night
-[] (Jade) Study Moth 3 artifact
-[] Summon a Mare-in-the-Light
--[] In a barn on our estate
-[] Help Smiles (x2)
-[] Cover your bases (-5 Follower AP, +2 Velvet AP)
[] Plan: A Song of Even More Light
-[] (Detectives) Search for foreign threats
-[] (Constables) Expedition: The Quarry of Yuxtabai
-[] (Commissioner) Get your hooves dirty
-[] (Director) Heart
-[] (Mareinette) Honored Guest: Mayor Mare
-[] (Baldomare) Lantern lesson
-[] (DoA) Consult
-[] (Smiles-Free) Lead an expedition: Is It Free Real Estate?
-[] (Cherenkolt) Consult
--[] Recalibrate: Grail
-[] (Selene) Soothe the night
-[] (Jade) Study Moth 3 artifact
-[] Summon a Mare-in-the-Light (x2)
-[] Help Smiles
-[] Cover your bases (-5 Follower AP, +2 Velvet AP)
Both of these assume that the following will be use for Cover Your Bases: Risen, Servants, Rarity, Fluttershy, Smiles. The primary difference is that "A Song of Light" spends 1 DoA AP on summoning a MitL and 2 Selene AP on helping Smiles, while "Even More Light" spends 1 DoA and 1 Selene AP on summoning and 1 Selene AP on helping.
Alternatively, for those who don't wish to risk doing 3-circle summons in the barn:
[] Plan: Expeditions 'Hoy!
-[] (Detectives) Search for foreign threats
-[] (Constables) Expedition: The Quarry of Yuxtabai
-[] (Commissioner) Get your hooves dirty
-[] (Director) Heart
-[] (Mareinette) Honored Guest: Mayor Mare
-[] (Baldomare) Lantern lesson
-[] (DoA) Consult
-[] (Smiles-Free) Lead an expedition: Visiting a Competitor
-[] (Cherenkolt) Consult
--[] Recalibrate: Grail
-[] (Selene) Soothe the night
-[] (Jade) Study Moth 3 artifact
-[] Lead an expedition: Is It Free Real Estate?
-[] Help Smiles (x2)
-[] Cover your bases (-5 Follower AP, +2 Velvet AP)
As "A Song of Light", but with DoA on an expedition instead of summoning.
All three of these provide us with enough AP that we can spend 5 AP helping Cadance, or 4 AP helping and 1 doing something else if it swings that way. All three also assume that we are making the Forge reagent ourselves.
It's not missing. I figured it just made more sense to do it in the Velvet phase because... well, it's not like Leashing Spoiled Rich actually gives us any AP, so there's nothing to account for in the Follower Phase.Just wanted to point out that you are missing the Leash vote in all of these plans. Which leads me to a question.
@OurLadyOfWires , can we have Mareinette use Honored Guest to raise Spoiled to Confidante for our Moth Sacrament this Turn, or does it have to be the Leash? So far it looks like she just autosucceeds at the befriending process, but I could be wrong.
If she can, I would humbly advocate changing the Light Plans to Leashing Mayor Mare to save her (keeping in line with Velvet's previous usage of the Leash), having Mareinette finish making a friend. Such would neatly avoid the Word-of-QM incredibly cruel Leash into Moth Sacrament combo.
And also because if the Leash isn't free to use on Spoiled for the Moth Sacrament and Selene doesn't roll at least 70 in one of her rolls Velvet dies.It's not missing. I figured it just made more sense to do it in the Velvet phase because... well, it's not like Leashing Spoiled Rich actually gives us any AP, so there's nothing to account for in the Follower Phase.
I can totally see this happening. Quite entertaining scenes.
This part took my attention the most.For you are Velvet Covers
And on your flank is a book of all history
And for as long as it is
It's incredibly short
Glory shines
And all basks in its splendor
Palest reflections
And also because if the Leash isn't free to use on Spoiled for the Moth Sacrament and Selene doesn't roll at least 70 in one of her rolls Velvet dies.![]()
Yeah. Though worth noting, if Bird says we can backfill Cover Your Bases, I'll likely add in a Smiles-summon with the DoA-summon, since at least one of those should succeed in summoning a MitL which can take Smiles's spot to maintain +2 Velvet AP and still keep the x2 Selene helping.@Greymere is this the plan where you calced that we won't be too rushed helping Smiles? Because that's the one I want to go for, but if both escape the crunch then I will switch to the double summon plan.
Glad you liked it. It's occupied too much of my thoughts .