Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

[Solace2117]

[X] Plan: A Song of Light

This is fine for now.

 

[ses]

It is no secret (or maybe it is just a very poorly-kept secret) that personal Sacraments are "evolutions" of your Realizations. So, your personal Sacrament would be the full understanding and incorporation of your "sixth sense" to your combat style.

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I have no idea what this means for our Personal Moth, it's been heavily hinted that our Personal Moth allows us to pull a Jeanette and Therese Voerman with a magic split personality. Though I'm not sure how that's an evolution of "Darkvision" and I'm not sure how our "houseguest" will manifest itself as a benefit mechanically. My guess had been an extra Social Action slot, but I'm not sure what that has to do with darkvision... unless it's a case of "Velvet no longer needs to sleep and spends long nights as her other self instead, mostly doing her own thing but with a "Confidante AP" that she'll give us". That might work as a way to incorporate a darkvision trait into a social trait? And it seems really likely that Personal Moth is a social trait.

Though I do note that:

Ysabet has always been most comfortable by moonlight. She has excellent night vision. She is often overlooked in daylight.
Ysabet sleeps in fits and starts. She rises at dusk to do the things an Ysabet does.
Ysabet was just here, just a moment ago. Just here. Almost certainly.
Ysabet never lies, now. She doesn't need to.

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Ysabet moves so quickly, and with such subtlety, she never seems quite to be in one place. But, somehow, she's always where she should be.

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Personal Forge, Lantern, and Winter are all much more straightforward, in that we pretty much know what the general idea of them would be if not the exact text. Buff potions to turn bits into buffs, mind reading to apply our lantern to social stuff and learn secrets from people, and something something zombies. Same with Personal Grail having been a minion making social trait. Could have literally been "leash an unlimited number of targets simultaneously". Personal SH is something involving being omnilore but I have no clue exactly what.

Though it's notable that "evolution of your Realization" cares more about the thematics than about the mechanical effect: After all Baldomare-Lantern by everything we can tell is all about being able to read ancient books better, which is a more straightforward upgrade to the Realization we already have mechanically than mind-reading is. Really if anything the personal and invitation sacraments feel like they ought to be swapped in terms of which is an upgrade to our Realization mechanically.

I also notice that most of the Sacraments that Were-Not were a lot more complicated than the Sacrament we did get, which is notable because that changes how complicated we might expect other Sacraments to be. Lionsmith was one big "like a realization power but stronger and more flashy", but a lot of the others like the Wolf or Colonel ones were like 3 different smaller effects stapled together. Colonel Sacrament is literally three different powers stapled together into one assassin package! It could have easily been three different Realizations. So that's a thing that might occur in other lores.

Bah, I feel like we just screwed up so hard that we're getting forced into the ending while barely getting to even touch playing with Sacraments, let alone Masteries. We hardly are getting to even benefit from no longer needing Name rebinding costs. There's been no time for us to play in the high-power sandbox of being a high level character facing endgame challenges (Velvet being all 4 was not being an endgame character. She didn't even have a Sacrament till recently! And we're only just about to do our first endgame Long expedition)

[Neverending Rage]: Whenever Velvet Covers rolls a combat dice, she gains a "+1 (Hate)" bonus to her personal combat. This bonus has no stacking limit, and lasts until the end of combat. Any character who is the "main combatant" against Velvet Covers may not retreat from combat.

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Hmm. Your choice of wording saying "Whenever Velvet Covers rolls a combat dice" isn't what I would have expected if it was just a per-turn thing. Does that mean that if she gets fought by 3 enemies at once her Hate grows three times as fast? This is basically Lung's power from Worm after all, so it wouldn't be out of the question.

 

[Alan975]

Do ping me if anyone has a more Cadence focused plan, and you'll have my vote.


[X] Plan: Soothing and Befriending

[X] Plan: Soothing and Befriending and Investigating

[X] Plan: Befriending Smiles

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

Edit 2: @Talon Tiger Dino even though your vote doesn't count for it right now, you were the first one to write in the whole block and it's still picking up the information. Can you add "Acquire a dead body" into Song of Light?

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Will do, since I am apparently a thief of Plans.

[X] Plan: A Song of Light
-[X] (Detectives) Search for foreign threats
-[X] (Constables) Expedition: The Quarry of Yuxtabai
-[X] (Commissioner) Get your hooves dirty
-[X] (Director) Heart
-[X] (Mareinette) Honored Guest: Mayor Mare
-[X] (Baldomare) Lantern lesson
-[X] (DoA) Consult
-[X] (Smiles-Free) Lead an expedition: Is It Free Real Estate?
-[X] (Cherenkolt) Consult
--[X] Recalibrate: Grail
-[X] (Selene) Soothe the night
-[X] (Jade) Study Moth 3 artifact
-[X] Summon a Mare-in-the-Light
--[X] In a barn on our estate
-[X] Acquire a dead body
-[X] Help Smiles (x2)
-[X] Cover your bases (-5 Follower AP, +2 Velvet AP)

Here is what I edited the plan to.

 

[Wise Wolf]

Tentatively voting for these. Not sure which of the plans before the "no conditionals" change are valid; I'll go back through them when I get a chance.

[X] Plan: Soothing and Befriending

[X] Plan: Soothing and Befriending and Investigating

 

[DelightedOne]

[X] Plan: A Song of Light

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Hey Grey, your vote isn't being counted with the other song of light votes because it lacks the acquire a dead body action.

 

[Greymere]

You know, if we weren't chained by the shadow of Daybreaker, I'd wonder if we could send in Mareinette to negotiate-slash-threaten the Changelings after we decipher the map. Just be like, "well you have two choices here! you can go back to your main hive - whose location I have right here - and leave Equestria alone, or the angry sun horse will keep hunting you down until you've all been stamped out. I'd really rather you choose the first option."

 

[Shaper47]

You know, if we weren't chained by the shadow of Daybreaker, I'd wonder if we could send in Mareinette to negotiate-slash-threaten the Changelings after we decipher the map. Just be like, "well you have two choices here! you can go back to your main hive - whose location I have right here - and leave Equestria alone, or the angry sun horse will keep hunting you down until you've all been stamped out. I'd really rather you choose the first option."

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You'd be sacrificing all the ponies the Changelings are keeping as food but it's probably possible.

Don't see why Velvet would want to do that though when she can just kill them all?

In context the Changelings crossed a massive red line when they performed their massacres and forgiveness is extreamly far from ponies minds.

Besides I highly doubt the Changelings would respect such a deal anyways. Appeasement for the Changelings isn't going to stop them performing raids for food on juicy small villages in Equestria after they've left.

 

[dcoconeo]

@OurLadyOfWires Since we had an Quest anniversary pass during the migration over here, do you mind holding one now, so we can have some final hints on stuff to note?

[X] Plan: A Song of Light

 

[Pittauro]

I agree with you but it seemed like thread mood was anti-Windy due to "risk of alerting him", and it's not an important enough action for me to stand ground over it compared to getting votes to ensure we dont take risks on Cadance as well as go into next turn ready to befriend Smiles with plenty of extra follower AP and a decent amount of Smiles Progress already made.

I'm not really super happy with the plan doing a 2nd manehattan expedition either, but I thought that having the last AP be something extremely easy to drop if one of the summons failed would reduce the chance of the QM having issues with the vote since it does 2 MITL summons and implicitly uses one of the MITLs to graverob.

And dodge city is a zero value action, so that's lower than the low value of expedition search.

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Honestly I'm not that interested in Windy at this point.

Neighnia I could be convinced on, but that would probably require a scrying ritual...

It seems intuitively obvious to me that if the changelings are trying to retreat and aren't planning an attack, and we very obviously can go 2-3 turns going "It's on my desk" while putting no actual effort into changeling extermination other than making mouth noises about how hard we're working on it (we delayed Tall Tale for 2 turns and nothing came of it, and we just had a big win), then therefore we should not spend our resources getting into an existential war of survival with the changelings?

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To be fair, they DO have lots of pony prisoners they're probably planning to bring with them as food, so there's an argument we don't want to let them escape because of that.

Of course you're also right that if the quest is near the end (assuming nothing happens after tricuspid, which I still have doubts over) Changelings are not that urgent. Definitely less important than Sacraments and Name Friendships.

Honestly I'm half-tempted into having Selene try to establish a line of communication for Velvet and the changeling leadership to coordinate how they will keep their heads down and not draw any attention to themselves until the whole "Celestia wants to genocide you" thing blows over. It's better for Velvet, the changelings, Equestria's civilian population and future-Celestia herself after she's had her Snickers for the issue to not be forced right now and for the Bureau to spend its time looting crystal skulls from ancient temples instead.

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That's just too risky. Right now Changelings are basically seen as not even people, but outright monsters.

if Velvet was found out as trying to do diplomacy with them, she could very easily be branded a traitor to the country. They wouldn't even be wrong, really.

Also... it's not really her place. If someone had the right to try it, it would be Cadance at this point. And maybe not even she has that kind of authority, considering how Daybreaker REALLY wants them all dead.

@OurLadyOfWires Can we target our detectives at Neighnea?

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Even if we could, I wouldn't want to. if Eclipse is likely to steal our weird changeling corpse from us, why wouldn't they try to get Neighnia as well?

The Master was one of the biggest threats to us in the setting; a Name with agency, who was operating in the Wake, and who we had betrayed.

It's not that we should literally never play defense. We're going to Soothe the Night and spend a lot of actions on Helping Cadance this turn, and that's all defense. But that's defense against Daybreaker, a lethal threat to us.

Compared to the Master and Daybreaker, Softy's wolf cult is simply not a threat to us at all. We do not need to defend ourselves against them. We should focus on winning.

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Mostly true.

Honestly, if we're going to save Mayor Mare we should do it because we want Velvet to be the kind of mare that would do it. Basically risk something and spend her time to save an innocent person/ a friend.

but I wouldn't worry about the Wolf Cult itself becoming a problem. Not in the short term, at least, not unless we take more Regrettable Actions.

Sure we could technically do Commission twice in a row I guess, if we do it this and next turn. But. Like. Why? Getting more bits is only useful if we're actually going to use them on something meaningful before All In. As it stands, we could summon three MitLs, do Baldomare's SH Sacrament, a Calling of Influence, the Forge's Redemption with a Level 4 Forge Reagent, and a couple of short expeditions with Smiles's free action, and still have at least 100 bits left over for All In, and that's without using a Commission either this or next turn.

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Potentially the Forge Sacraments might be an option, and they cost a lot of bits.

I don't think it's likely we'll be able to afford them AP and scraps-wise, but it's still something worth pointing out

Same for the Winter Sacrament, I suppose, with its 3 APs and 90 bits required.

Basically, IF we get some more forge or winter scraps before all in, these two sacraments are options.

also in general, more bits in reserve means we're better set to do more expeditions next turn, which is valuable IF we can gain an extra turn on the Daybreaker counter.

Do expeditions turn 24, study loot turn 25... though that's the best case scenario.

I wasnt sure QM would let us drop Rarity's action if a summon failed, since it's an exclusive action and not generic.

Also, we dont need the bits right this moment but you know what would be really nice? Not getting accidentally painted into a corner later because we didn't take the preparation now when it was very cheap. If we have to rush Smiles next turn we can. And 2 Smiles progress just isn't worth 100+ bits outside of an emergency. Even if we dont need those bits right this moment. Rarity can do smiles progress next turn instead if she really really needs to.

There's every chance that we find out that Long expedition hurdles have completely reasonable CDs and we were being silly over-investing as much as we have and want to do a bunch of Expeditions next turn! There's every chance we get yet another opportunity to spend a boat of bits to make a problem go away! Having bits in the bank now when it's basically no cost means fewer hard choices in the future if something goes wrong!

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this, yeah.

I'm just hoping that Pittauro comes up with a good plan at this point.

So long as a plan has Mareinette and Commissioner action on Cadance I can deal with it.

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I mean, I think there's a general agreement on MOST of the things we want to do anyway?

We want to go for Forge 6 and Lantern 7, we're planning 4 or 5 Cadance Actions (Velvet and/or Mareinette), we need to do Moth Sacrament of course...

I'm leaning towards saving Mayor Mare, personally. Personally I'd love to also take Steppe's gift, as we DID invest a fair bit in it and I want to see what it's all about, but I get it if we can't afford it.

We really have crossed the point where there is no way to ever get another Edge Sacrament. So, unlike things like Cult Infrastructure that may yet be seen in other contexts, I wanted to talk about what other skills you could have acquired if you had gone another way, Edge-wise.

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yay! I don't suppose you'd also comment on the other Knock though? After all that too is beyond reach at this point.

Probably Moth too as well. We'll never get the Master's Sacrament, so you could comment on that fairly freely.

The Wolf option:
[Neverending Rage]: Whenever Velvet Covers rolls a combat dice, she gains a "+1 (Hate)" bonus to her personal combat. This bonus has no stacking limit, and lasts until the end of combat. Any character who is the "main combatant" against Velvet Covers may not retreat from combat.
I really like how this one turned out. The bonus could have been "+2", but I was never sure. Still, the idea of this Sacrament was that Velvet hates you. She hates you, and she will fight like a mad dog until you die. And her hate (much like the Wolf's Wound) never stops growing.
So, if you pick a fight with her, she WILL eventually accumulate enough bonuses to murder you. And it is quite literally impossible to escape her. Mechanically, her target is forbidden from attempting to retreat. And narratively, a character may try to run, but she will chase.
Of course, it would be possible to retreat if there were more than one combatant fighting Velvet. Only the "main fighter" (the character tanking the fight) is prohibited from fleeing. So, it is possible for a character to roll to "outmaneuver" Velvet (to switch from main combatant to a side combatant) and then retreat. Narratively, that is the literal equivalent of throwing a friend on her to distract her, and running to the hills.
And how do you kill her? Like you would kill a monster. Bring a lot of friends, do not fight alone, and overwhelm her before she has the chance to get too strong.

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Interesting. if the fight goes on for long enough Velvet quite literally becomes unstoppable... but then again, it also seems like the weakest if you prevent her from doing that.

The Lionsmith option:
You already know this one, silly.

But the idea is obvious. Velvet fights like something that just won't go down, even if she has a blade sticking out of her back. Killing her is a bit more straightforward, since she doesn't really gain combat bonuses.
But this Sacrament makes her at home in a larger fight with allies, as you would see during a rebellion. She is meant to take the brunt of the damage, help other characters kill her opponents, and (mechanically) brush off her wounds as she rushes to help another front. The untiring hero (or monster) that everyone who retreats will swear (correctly) they saw pushing against their several different lines.

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it also suits Velvet in that she can just... well, summon the help, if necessary.

MitL and Risens, for example.

The Colonel option:
[The Long Game]: Whenever Velvet Covers wounds a character, she gains a "+5 (Understanding)" bonus against that character (and that character only). This bonus has no stacking limit, and never fades. Wounds caused by Velvet Covers may not be healed for a full month/turn, and after that month they are "twice" as hard/expensive to heal. Once per month/turn, Velvet Covers may choose to auto-succeed in safely retreating from any combat.

Inspired by the Colonel, this Sacrament focuses on the long game. Quite literally on planning an assassination over a period of time that is much longer than "a single combat".
Granted, if Velvet gains an advantage then she will be able to press that advantage on that same combat.
But this Sacrament really shines against stronger enemies with large health pools and larger combat status (like Celestia, or Mareinette, or other monstrous creatures). And the idea is that Velvet plans an attack, assaults her target, wounds it once and then safely retreats through a pre-planned route.
Rinse and repeat, and soon enough you have stacked "+20" against that target. While that target suffers the hard-to-heal wounds Velvet gave them.
And how do you kill this Velvet? Well, the same way you would kill the Colonel. You are forced to play her game. You will need to (1) not make mistakes (don't get wounded) or fight via proxies (characters she can wound without accruing bonus against you), and (2) you have to outplan her, because you must assault Velvet twice on the same turn, or she will just use her guaranteed retreat to escape.

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uh. I see now how the Colonel plans to beat the Lionsmith. this is basically how the fight in the Museum would go if he had it his way.

...well, maybe not, Colonel probably has more tricks stored, and... I suppose he'd have plenty of experience fighting the Lionsmith too, so technically a stored bonus already?

The "self" option:
[Stance of the White Cat]: Velvet Covers is immune to "outnumbered" maluses, when facing up to five enemies. Whenever Velvet Covers fights an enemy, she gains a "+2 (Skilled)" bonus for each enemy she faces, up to a total of "+10".

This one is unapologetically inspired by several personal stories I wrote growing up, and by this:

Spoiler: A video

View: https://youtu.be/HMsbMK9Odoc?t=58

It is no secret (or maybe it is just a very poorly-kept secret) that personal Sacraments are "evolutions" of your Realizations. So, your personal Sacrament would be the full understanding and incorporation of your "sixth sense" to your combat style.
And when you know where everyone is, what they are doing, and where they intend to strike you, facing several enemies at the same time turns to an advantage rather than a problem.
Narratively, this Velvet Covers would be at home facing several adversaries at once. Dancing around them, parrying them with each other's blows, and using every small movement from her to strike at them where they least expect it, especially when you think you have the advantage because she has her back turned to you.
And mechanically, it is easy to see that when fighting five opponents at the same time, rather than having a "-20 (Outnumbered)" she would be capping her bonus with a "+10 (Skilled)." On top of that, it never happened in the quest (and this is not a hard rule) but I am very amenable to the D&D rules that one character model can only be "surrounded" by up to eight models (in dungeons & dragons, a character is a "square", and can only be surrounded by eight other squares of the same size). Now, I firmly believe that if you get in a fight where you are totally surrounded you did something wrong. But here, mechanically, Velvet's "Skilled" bonus only gets nullified if she is surrounded by seven enemy characters, and she only receives a disadvantage if she is surrounded by the max of eight.
And the theme of this Sacrament would be precisely that. It's only a fair fight (and you only have a chance to kill her) if you are absolutely dogpiling her.

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uh. Narratively I think it's my favourite. It might also have been the optimal one from a gameplay point of view, considering we (thus far) have faced multiple weak enemies over a single stronger one.

and yeah, it's pretty clear that personal Sacraments are "evolutions/mastery" of our Realization power. It's why I tend to like them more, usually.

I imagine her personal Grail would be a permanent leash (turn confidants into minions permanently, I imagine).

Knock... if basic knock is extra mansus exploration and openining doors, I expect the evolution would be "opening portals" and... maybe more mansus too? if the basic point is because we no longer dream, maybe extra would be from being able to traverse the Mansus faster by sort of... portaling through some areas? Or using the Concursum, maybe.

Maybe I'll go more into my guesses for the other lores later on.

"But won't this create salt over people wishing we had gone for another Sacrament?"

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nah, indeed please, comment on Knock/Moth/Grail too

We are getting very close to an Ending, and there is every chance that some of the behind-the-scenes rolls this turn will create an emergency that will demand an "All in" at the end of this turn.

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hopefully not! we really REALLY benefit a lot from getting at least one more turn!

Turn 24 we basically get an SH Sacrament, a Lantern Sacrament, the Cherenkolt and Smile Friendship...

Again, this is because there is a chance we start the turn, I start processing the actions and writing, and in the middle of the turn Selene comes crying to you again with another "mom, I fucked up."

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Me in that case: "Selene you had ONE JOB!!"

Personal Forge, Lantern, and Winter are all much more straightforward, in that we pretty much know what the general idea of them would be if not the exact text. Buff potions to turn bits into buffs, mind reading to apply our lantern to social stuff and learn secrets from people, and something something zombies. Same with Personal Grail having been a minion making social trait. Could have literally been "leash an unlimited number of targets simultaneously". Personal SH is something involving being omnilore but I have no clue exactly what.

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Winter might be make zombies mid-combat from the corpses of your enemies. Or maybe some kind of EiB roll, but mid-combat. bring the "cold within"... without/outside?

Forge is definitely potions, yeah, though the mechanics are obviously a ?.

Lantern is probably "study prisoners like you'd study books", if I had to guess. with a possible "mind-read-through-touch" you could use without being noticed, maybe. Hoofshake, and then you know their secrets?

Grail is probably permanent-minion making, yeah.

Personal SH... could be getting to use the knowledge of the other Velvets, yeah. hard to say how exactly.

Bah, I feel like we just screwed up so hard that we're getting forced into the ending while barely getting to even touch playing with Sacraments, let alone Masteries. We hardly are getting to even benefit from no longer needing Name rebinding costs. There's been no time for us to play in the high-power sandbox of being a high level character facing endgame challenges (Velvet being all 4 was not being an endgame character. She didn't even have a Sacrament till recently! And we're only just about to do our first endgame Long expedition)

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which is part of why I still think the game won't "END end" after Tricuspid. There's so much left we never got to see"

Though, to be fair, keep in mind that even NAMES don't really have more than Lore 6 here (probably 7 at full power, admittedly, they're all "weakened" in some way or another). Velvet being "peak mortal" (all 4) before reaching Tricuspid is not exactly her being weak. And even in ancient times most ponies only really got one or two sacraments I imagine, and an all-4 is I think comparable just by sheer flexibility.

In any case, we mostly didn't screw up hard. We made SOME mistakes (Twilight, Master, failing to get the other cult advisors on our side, Most recently Selene's bad roll), but on the whole we did decently.

Hmm. Your choice of wording saying "Whenever Velvet Covers rolls a combat dice" isn't what I would have expected if it was just a per-turn thing. Does that mean that if she gets fought by 3 enemies at once her Hate grows three times as fast? This is basically Lung's power from Worm after all, so it wouldn't be out of the question.

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I think it's more that there's multiple combat clashes in a single turn. a turn would be the... 2 or 3 clashes you get before you decide if you want to try to escape or not.

(rechecking plans and voting tomorrow)

 

[ses]

Honestly, if we're going to save Mayor Mare we should do it because we want Velvet to be the kind of mare that would do it. Basically risk something and spend her time to save an innocent person/ a friend.

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"risk something"

4 Cadance AP is absolutely unacceptable barring the most dire of emergencies forcing our hand.

Also unrelated but I'm surprised you thought Dance of the White Cat would be strongest mechanically. It seems obvious to me that Heal Without Scars was probably our best pick, since Velvet will frequently go into combat with a +40 edge influence equipped making her biggest danger getting her long term plans effed up by random bad luck. See our Dance With Death which would have been really nice to just insta-heal that wound the moment the thug died. Heal Without Scars is practically a better mass combat trait than Dance of the White Cat is, if Velvet is wearing an Influence, as she no longer needs to worry about nat100s. Not to mention we have Wrong Keys for windigos and the security detail giving us two constables guarding our home (probably with an edge level or so on average), which means that Velvet can tank a lot of punishment while her Names or Constables provide aid without needing to worry too much about losing the fight outright through Dance With Death before she can trigger the heal.

 

[dcoconeo]

but on the whole we did decently

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Well, as the QM have decided to remind us, does it matter when all the important setting wide rolls job?

 

[Wise Wolf]

Honestly, if we're going to save Mayor Mare we should do it because we want Velvet to be the kind of mare that would do it. Basically risk something and spend her time to save an innocent person/ a friend.

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I honestly agree that this is the best reason to save her. You are what you do, and by choosing what Velvet does we do influence who Velvet-the-Hour is.

... But I still don't think it makes sense in this particular case. I don't think Velvet CAN be someone who will sacrifice a lot to save every innocent she knows someone else will kill. That's not a person who could make a lot of the decisions we've made, and it's probably, at some level, not a person who could reach Glory. And we know that, in this very turn, we will personally kill someone we had kidnapped in order to befriend an ancient monstrosity.

I think the most virtuous obtainable Velvet is someone who will only kill and sacrifice others at great need. Someone who won't do something like the Winter Sacrament, where we kill three people (cleanly, simply, and sooooo easily) for a minor power boost. Someone who will agonize over killing someone, even for the favor of a monstrous Name... but will still do so for the greater good.

And... remember that Velvet KNOWS what the QM just said: the game is about over. Daybreaker may come for us as soon as as next month, and Velvet diving head-first into All-In and Malleary will be Equestria's last hope against the Worms. Someone willing to reluctantly sacrifice someone for great power to beat back the doom of Nowhere is not likely to spend a significant amount of resources in this situation, just to save one pony from murder. One extra MITL for if Daybreaker comes knocking and we have to bet all Equestria on one last pitch and toss is worth more than saving an innocent pony.

 

[Shaper47]

I mean, I think there's a general agreement on MOST of the things we want to do anyway?

We want to go for Forge 6 and Lantern 7, we're planning 4 or 5 Cadance Actions (Velvet and/or Mareinette), we need to do Moth Sacrament of course...

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Well there's the Commissioner and Mareinette action.

I would really prefer them on Cadance.

There's the which expedition the Bureau pays for and thus gets the extraneous loot of. I'd much rather get all the loot from the Quarry of Yuxtabai and have the Bureau pay for the Choked City expedition.

Aside from that I'm ambivalent.

Investigation of Windy with the Bureau is a bad idea. (Just scry and die if we have the time)

So long as Cadance has Mareinette and Velvet's Commissioner action on her I can deal with things.

4 Cadance AP is absolutely unacceptable barring the most dire of emergencies forcing our hand.

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Then it's probably best that we stick Mareinette on Cadance (she probably does a better job then Velvet anyways and is thus worth more) and have the Commissioner action on Cadance.

That way including the free social we start with two Velvet AP and one Mareinette AP before dipping into Velvet's AP budget.

Velvet needs at least two free AP for her turn plan afterall.

 

[dcoconeo]

she probably does a better job then Velvet anyways and is thus worth more

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While we are allowed to do that, she has 0 Moth Lore Levels?

 

[Shaper47]

While we are allowed to do that, she has 0 Moth Lore Levels?

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Well she's probably covering for Cadance (which she has done before) so Cadance is free to focus on Celestia so she doesn't really need any Moth.

But even if it was relevant she got traits that make it a non issue.

[OUR LADY OF WIRES]: Mareinette is immune to the effects of "Monstrous Appearance".

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[NEVER ASK A LADY HER AGE]: Mareinette may elect to hide some of her characteristics from you. (She certainly is hiding her health, and she may be hiding other negative traits or skills)

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[Solace2117]

I honestly agree that this is the best reason to save her. You are what you do, and by choosing what Velvet does we do influence who Velvet-the-Hour is.

... But I still don't think it makes sense in this particular case. I don't think Velvet CAN be someone who will sacrifice a lot to save every innocent she knows someone else will kill. That's not a person who could make a lot of the decisions we've made, and it's probably, at some level, not a person who could reach Glory. And we know that, in this very turn, we will personally kill someone we had kidnapped in order to befriend an ancient monstrosity.

I think the most virtuous obtainable Velvet is someone who will only kill and sacrifice others at great need. Someone who won't do something like the Winter Sacrament, where we kill three people (cleanly, simply, and sooooo easily) for a minor power boost. Someone who will agonize over killing someone, even for the favor of a monstrous Name... but will still do so for the greater good.

And... remember that Velvet KNOWS what the QM just said: the game is about over. Daybreaker may come for us as soon as as next month, and Velvet diving head-first into All-In and Malleary will be Equestria's last hope against the Worms. Someone willing to reluctantly sacrifice someone for great power to beat back the doom of Nowhere is not likely to spend a significant amount of resources in this situation, just to save one pony from murder. One extra MITL for if Daybreaker comes knocking and we have to bet all Equestria on one last pitch and toss is worth more than saving an innocent pony.

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I get where you're coming from and I get wanting all the advantages we can get. If it was the difference between befriending a Name or getting a Sacrament you could talk me around to it. Hell if people were going to actually toss another action at Cadence I'd at least think about it. Probably still vote to save the Mayor, but I'd think about it. I just don't think one Mare in the Light will make that much difference and the other main alternative plan only has that and stuff that is set up if we extend the clock.

 

[Arrkhon]

Personally I would really prefer to no have Mareinette anywhere near Cadence or Daybreaker, not for what she would do but for what could see her, no matter how unlikely

 

[Limabot]

[X] Plan: A Song of Light

[X] Plan: A Song of Light, Bureau Doing Its Job

 

[ses]

[] Nothing happened. You are just ill.
-Your family will be worried about your health. But you will tell the, and they will believe you, that you are only sick.
-The events of tonight will be completely accepted as… a series of disconnected events. A group of pegasi colts got hold of some storm clouds, for a prank. The side-gate was left unlocked by a servant. The Lady suddenly got ill. Several small things, with no ties to each other whatsoever.


[] There has been an attempt against the Commissioner's life.
-Your family will be extremely worried about your (and their) safety.
-Information that you were attacked will, eventually, reach the public (although without any reliable details to it).
-Selene will insist on "Guarding" you this turn (although you are not forced to have her do it).
-Your Investigators will gain the option to "Investigate the Commissioner's attackers", which is a specially tailored investigation aimed at Copper Secateur.
-Your Constable's "Guard" action will be permanently upgraded.
-Your Constables will request to "Guard" you this turn (and the Bureau's morale/trust will decrease if you refuse this request)

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Oh hah hah, I just realized that we could have just... not told about the attack on our home and we wouldn't have lost a total of 4 AP (the forced FOs for family and friends on turn 21, soft's request, and now saving mayor mare). We also would have saved a Selene AP on guarding. Though granted the Security Detail trait was nice peace of mind even if we haven't used it yet, as well as the convenience of having the Constables do cleanups on the shattered remnants after we Name-bombed Copper herself.

--Velvet Covers is skilled enough to act without raising additional suspicion. Actions YOU perform, such as rituals, will not cause any more suspicion than they normally would (although if you commit a big blunder, your security guards might hear from the household gossip).

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Note that this is the sort of thing that is referred to as "suspicion", and uh... we already introduced the Lores to the Bureau. This isn't a threat.

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

Velvet needs at least two free AP for her turn plan afterall.

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And if you put 4 Velvet AP into Cadance in her Phase, you are left with 2 free AP. If you use Velvet's free Social that turn, you can get 5 Velvet AP for Cadance while still having your 2 floating AP.

I honestly agree that this is the best reason to save her. You are what you do, and by choosing what Velvet does we do influence who Velvet-the-Hour is.

... But I still don't think it makes sense in this particular case. I don't think Velvet CAN be someone who will sacrifice a lot to save every innocent she knows someone else will kill. That's not a person who could make a lot of the decisions we've made, and it's probably, at some level, not a person who could reach Glory. And we know that, in this very turn, we will personally kill someone we had kidnapped in order to befriend an ancient monstrosity.

I think the most virtuous obtainable Velvet is someone who will only kill and sacrifice others at great need. Someone who won't do something like the Winter Sacrament, where we kill three people (cleanly, simply, and sooooo easily) for a minor power boost. Someone who will agonize over killing someone, even for the favor of a monstrous Name... but will still do so for the greater good.

And... remember that Velvet KNOWS what the QM just said: the game is about over. Daybreaker may come for us as soon as as next month, and Velvet diving head-first into All-In and Malleary will be Equestria's last hope against the Worms. Someone willing to reluctantly sacrifice someone for great power to beat back the doom of Nowhere is not likely to spend a significant amount of resources in this situation, just to save one pony from murder. One extra MITL for if Daybreaker comes knocking and we have to bet all Equestria on one last pitch and toss is worth more than saving an innocent pony.

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Well, Velvet isn't actually Equestria's last hope against the Worms. Selene regained her memory of them, can still vaporize them, and can still grow in power.

Or Softy can come in with the Wolf Chair if shit got really bad, but that's the truly nuclear option.

Hell, toss the Memory of Light Action at Jade to give her a guidepost in case we kark it during All-In and we'll still have people working on another Victory path in the event of Velvet dying, or to have someone figuring out how to open diplomatic channels between Hour Velvet and Harmony in the event that Velvet succeeds.

Point is, Velvet isn't actually the sole hope of the world.

 

[Shaper47]

And if you put 4 Velvet AP into Cadance in her Phase, you are left with 2 free AP. If you use Velvet's free Social that turn, you can get 5 Velvet AP for Cadance while still having your 2 floating AP.

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Huh, really?

I was under the impression that those plans were under the impression that The Quarry of Yuxtabai would contain Velvet.

Which presumably is done under the impression that only require the Commissioner action is required for that.

More realistically I suspect that joining that expedition with the Bureau would require at least another two Velvet AP leaving only three Velvet AP available for Cadence.

But if that's not the case then technically that might work.

If Velvet doesn't suddenly need to pay AP to do a cover up due to suspicion from any summoning that is. But it's not like the QM mentioned that there is every chance that some of the behind-the-scenes rolls this turn will create an emergency that will demand an "All in" at the end of this turn which could be them giving us a heads up warning about a some behind-the-scenes rolls on suspicion.

But I could easily just be a bit overly cautious of that and there's nothing to worry about.

Still so long as we have at least two Velvet AP we're ok.

Two Velvet AP free for Moth Sacrament and testing Stalk the Ashen Wastes and Visit the Hunting Grounds.

Moth Sacrament so we don't die.

Stalking the Ashen Wastes because that has been hinted to be a source a renewable moth scraps. If it's something like 120 dc for a moth scrap per visit we could easily just get Moth Mastery Turn 24.

 

[ses]

We are getting very close to an Ending, and there is every chance that some of the behind-the-scenes rolls this turn will create an emergency that will demand an "All in" at the end of this turn.

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I suspect that QM is saying that we are currently at -3 "Celestia Progress", having rolled "No progress" on turn 21 and "-3 progress and vote for a negative occurrence" on turn 22.

This means that there's a decent chance that Selene rolling "-2 progress" puts Celestia to -5... that sounds like a threshold for Daybreaker from negative progress. That only puts Soothe at a 4% chance of disaster though (actually 4.8383...% chance if I'm doing my math for 'no rerolls on nat1' correctly). I dont think there's any chance whatsoever we dont take that risk though, it's just too net positive to have a 52% chance of +1 turn and a 10% chance of fixing the problem entirely.

And of course there's the chance we cock up the crisis we picked because the thread got greedy or just unlucky.

 

[Shaper47]

And of course there's the chance we cock up the crisis we picked because the thread got greedy or just unlucky.

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I agree with you on this though I'd add that suspicion is also a threat here.

Keep in mind here that those damn journalists are already writing stories about Velvet's sus deeds.

If a couple journalists say visit Ponyville to investigate the story of its shift to Velvet invested agricultural endeavors on the hoofs of the Greenhooves arrest and find a bunch of evidence of sus rituals hanging around it could easily be on the papers.

On lighter topics I was doing a review of my estimates of edge sacraments and wow was I close.

Should really start being called Cassandra here.

First up with Biedde:

However it needs to be considered that the main theme of the Colonel is that HE WILL NOT RELEASE THOSE IN HIS SERVICE, with the hints that the Colonel is still around via Biedde's trait and is likely to be hiding in the worm museum. So complications may follow.

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My Knock oracle moment.

Biedde's Sacrament: The direction and flavor seems to be the Colonel. This presumably would grant something like Biedde's trait of gaining personal combat bonus's against a single foe upon being wounded by them.

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Interesting inversion that is was personal combat bonus's against a single foe upon wounding them not being wounded.

Close enough to count though.

The Sacrament costs fighting Biedde in a single combat match (no ambushing allowed) and dealing to him a wound. Velvet with a level 4 edge influence has a personal combat of 69 with an Aotl she has 90, Biedde has 80. It is likely that even if Velvet succeeds she will be wounded in the process which would make Silky cry.

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And by the tip of her hooves too.

An awesome fight.

For sacraments;

Personal Remembrance of Issus Sacrament: The direction and flavor seems to be around general edge. This presumably would grant something like a basic personal combat bonus.

The Sacrament costs killing a "worthy opponent" in battle such as Princess Celestia, Princess Cadance, Mareinette, Comet Feet. For obvious reasons this is not something Velvet is going to do.

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Got pretty close to correct here but totally missed the dedication potential.

Wolf's Sacrament: The direction and flavor seems to be about unmaking one's foe. This has been hinted by the QM to involve things such as an "extra +1 damage on hit" or a "multi-combatant perk" or both given it's also a Winter Sacrament.

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I was totally off on this one, though it did forshadow Smiles Cushing Strength (I suspected "Rending Hate") and Cat Dance.

Something extremely interesting is that if Velvet got into a combat situation with a enemy that refused to attack back she would eventually build up enough hatred to destroy them no matter how tough they are. Would have been really interested in pulling that on the Wolf-Divided.

 

[ses]

I feel like Wolf sacrament would have worked as +2. I mean, Long Game was specifically the "assassinate Celestia" trait, but Wolf sacrament should at least have a chance greater than 1% at 1v1'ing Daybreaker with raw VIOLENCE when wearing a Resolution and a bunch of Edge Attentions, which +1 per turn doesn't even come close to a 1% chance as far as I can tell. Not even at Edge 6 or having picked more fighty chargen options like Comet Feet did. It's honestly hard for the Wolf sacrament to ever be in a situation where it's better than Long Game or even matters beyond flavor text seeing how short and swingy combat usually is. It at least accomplishes the goal of being able to 1v1 Mareinette, which Wolf-Velvet should absolutely be able to do, though mostly due to "no retreat" rather than the scaling making much difference.

Can't even have Windigos or an Edge Name tank for her the first few rounds since Celestia has a mass combat trait.

 

[Pittauro]

"risk something"

4 Cadance AP is absolutely unacceptable barring the most dire of emergencies forcing our hand.

Also unrelated but I'm surprised you thought Dance of the White Cat would be strongest mechanically. It seems obvious to me that Heal Without Scars was probably our best pick, since Velvet will frequently go into combat with a +40 edge influence equipped making her biggest danger getting her long term plans effed up by random bad luck. See our Dance With Death which would have been really nice to just insta-heal that wound the moment the thug died. Heal Without Scars is practically a better mass combat trait than Dance of the White Cat is, if Velvet is wearing an Influence, as she no longer needs to worry about nat100s. Not to mention we have Wrong Keys for windigos and the security detail giving us two constables guarding our home (probably with an edge level or so on average), which means that Velvet can tank a lot of punishment while her Names or Constables provide aid without needing to worry too much about losing the fight outright through Dance With Death before she can trigger the heal.

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good point about the edge sacraments.

as for Cadance, 4 AP is my personal minimum, and I find it acceptable.

Keep in mind, we just... don't really know how much it helps, but historically speaking most good things we did have taken 3 or 4 APs at most.

Sacraments tend to be 3 dedicated APs, usually. a Long expedition is 3 APs. And so on.

that said, I'm leaning 5.

I honestly agree that this is the best reason to save her. You are what you do, and by choosing what Velvet does we do influence who Velvet-the-Hour is.

... But I still don't think it makes sense in this particular case. I don't think Velvet CAN be someone who will sacrifice a lot to save every innocent she knows someone else will kill. That's not a person who could make a lot of the decisions we've made, and it's probably, at some level, not a person who could reach Glory. And we know that, in this very turn, we will personally kill someone we had kidnapped in order to befriend an ancient monstrosity.

I think the most virtuous obtainable Velvet is someone who will only kill and sacrifice others at great need. Someone who won't do something like the Winter Sacrament, where we kill three people (cleanly, simply, and sooooo easily) for a minor power boost. Someone who will agonize over killing someone, even for the favor of a monstrous Name... but will still do so for the greater good.

And... remember that Velvet KNOWS what the QM just said: the game is about over. Daybreaker may come for us as soon as as next month, and Velvet diving head-first into All-In and Malleary will be Equestria's last hope against the Worms. Someone willing to reluctantly sacrifice someone for great power to beat back the doom of Nowhere is not likely to spend a significant amount of resources in this situation, just to save one pony from murder. One extra MITL for if Daybreaker comes knocking and we have to bet all Equestria on one last pitch and toss is worth more than saving an innocent pony.

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Agreed on the "can't sacrifice that much" point, I disagree on Winter being a minor power boost though.

It's a Sacrament, which also opens a path to the resting place of the Sun-in-Rags, which probably has a tier 7 artifact in it (if Windy didn't take it first).

It's worse than Mareinette's sacrament in some ways, but I still find it worth it considering what we're dealing with.

Of course it's probably a moot point. Winter 5 is not really an option unless we get another turn thanks to Selene AND get the winter scrap we miss someway.

I want to point out that "last defense against the Worms" is maybe a bit of an exaggeration. Mareinette is now around, and I imagine she would care about the Worms at the very least. Biedde too, assuming he can find a way to make a cult for himself.

and then there's Selene as well.

AND the worms have... not actually invaded yet. Velvet is the BEST current solution to them, but not the only potential one.

Investigation of Windy with the Bureau is a bad idea. (Just scry and die if we have the time)

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and even then I'd rather scry for Neighnia, really.

Then it's probably best that we stick Mareinette on Cadance (she probably does a better job then Velvet anyways and is thus worth more) and have the Commissioner action on Cadance.

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Thing is Mareinette does also a better job expeditioning. So it's debatable where she fits best.

And if you put 4 Velvet AP into Cadance in her Phase, you are left with 2 free AP. If you use Velvet's free Social that turn, you can get 5 Velvet AP for Cadance while still having your 2 floating AP.



Well, Velvet isn't actually Equestria's last hope against the Worms. Selene regained her memory of them, can still vaporize them, and can still grow in power.

Or Softy can come in with the Wolf Chair if shit got really bad, but that's the truly nuclear option.

Hell, toss the Memory of Light Action at Jade to give her a guidepost in case we kark it during All-In and we'll still have people working on another Victory path in the event of Velvet dying, or to have someone figuring out how to open diplomatic channels between Hour Velvet and Harmony in the event that Velvet succeeds.

Point is, Velvet isn't actually the sole hope of the world.

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Yeah, this.

She's just the current BEST one.

Also, you know, she's not selfless, so she still wants Glory.

Stalking the Ashen Wastes because that has been hinted to be a source a renewable moth scraps. If it's something like 120 dc for a moth scrap per visit we could easily just get Moth Mastery Turn 24.

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where was the renewable source of scraps hinted?

Generally speaking my impression was that revisiting a location could give anything from influences to scraps to nothing.

I'd rather continue exploring new places for as long as we can. We also need to do that to keep Restlessness at bay anyway.

I suspect that QM is saying that we are currently at -3 "Celestia Progress", having rolled "No progress" on turn 21 and "-3 progress and vote for a negative occurrence" on turn 22.

This means that there's a decent chance that Selene rolling "-2 progress" puts Celestia to -5... that sounds like a threshold for Daybreaker from negative progress. That only puts Soothe at a 4% chance of disaster though (actually 4.8383...% chance if I'm doing my math for 'no rerolls on nat1' correctly). I dont think there's any chance whatsoever we dont take that risk though, it's just too net positive to have a 52% chance of +1 turn and a 10% chance of fixing the problem entirely.

And of course there's the chance we cock up the crisis we picked because the thread got greedy or just unlucky.

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probably, yeah.

In the end it's a risk we need to take. we can always roll low and get unlucky, but if we don't try there's no chance of things getting better.

Who knows... we had good nat100s in the past. Maybe we'll get lucky again.

If a couple journalists say visit Ponyville to investigate the story of its shift to Velvet invested agricultural endeavors on the hoofs of the Greenhooves arrest and find a bunch of evidence of sus rituals hanging around it could easily be on the papers.

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true, but there's plenty of ways to dismiss that as gossip.

It would be step 1 on the evidence escalation, basically. It won't be immediate ruin.

Something extremely interesting is that if Velvet got into a combat situation with a enemy that refused to attack back she would eventually build up enough hatred to destroy them no matter how tough they are. Would have been really interested in pulling that on the Wolf-Divided.

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I think Hours would just be beyond conventional combat.

It takes something SPECIAL for a mortal to kill an Hour. basically the ONLY time it happened it was with the Colonel against the Seven Coils, wasn't it? And he had this whole elaborate ritual of scarring for it.

I feel like Wolf sacrament would have worked as +2. I mean, Long Game was specifically the "assassinate Celestia" trait, but Wolf sacrament should at least have a chance greater than 1% at 1v1'ing Daybreaker with raw VIOLENCE when wearing a Resolution and a bunch of Edge Attentions, which +1 per turn doesn't even come close to a 1% chance as far as I can tell. Not even at Edge 6 or having picked more fighty chargen options like Comet Feet did. It's honestly hard for the Wolf sacrament to ever be in a situation where it's better than Long Game or even matters beyond flavor text seeing how short and swingy combat usually is. It at least accomplishes the goal of being able to 1v1 Mareinette, which Wolf-Velvet should absolutely be able to do, though mostly due to "no retreat" rather than the scaling making much difference.

Can't even have Windigos or an Edge Name tank for her the first few rounds since Celestia has a mass combat trait.

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I agree that +1 was a bit too little. +2 sounds fine.

 

[Shaper47]

but Wolf sacrament should at least have a chance greater than 1% at 1v1'ing Daybreaker with raw VIOLENCE when wearing a Resolution and a bunch of Edge Attentions, which +1 per turn doesn't even come close to a 1% chance as far as I can tell.

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It depends how much Velvet can ramp up.

If she faces an army beforehand Hatred gets really really scary.

Like, say Velvet fights 50 Royal Guards in a row before reaching Celestia. That's probably something like a +100. So Velvet just auto wins every round so long as she has Aolts against Celestia.

Of course without Smiles Sacrament that would be really hard given the risk of getting wilted down.

It's honestly hard for the Wolf sacrament to ever be in a situation where it's better than Long Game or even matters beyond flavor text seeing how short and swingy combat usually is.

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If we got an Edge Brand we could have had the Wolf Sacrament and Smiles Sacrament which are an extreamly scary combo for facing armies.

But I understand what you mean.

The no retreat bit would actually be the scariest/useful part of Wolf Sacrament mechanically given how Velvet thrives with preparation.

Making sure Velvet is fighting while with an Edge Influence and a bunch of Aotls is a lot more dangerous then her without them.

 

[ses]

It takes something SPECIAL for a mortal to kill an Hour. basically the ONLY time it happened it was with the Colonel against the Seven Coils, wasn't it? And he had this whole elaborate ritual of scarring for it.

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The Watchman kind of sort of maybe, depending on one's point of view. The Elegiast certainly thinks so. And humans were very much involved in the killing of the Flint, Tide, and Wheel even if The Forge, Grail, and Moth got kill credit for those.

Of course it's probably a moot point. Winter 5 is not really an option unless we get another turn thanks to Selene AND get the winter scrap we miss someway.

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We're a max-level Winter Influence away from being sacrament gated on Winter.

Keep in mind, we just... don't really know how much it helps, but historically speaking most good things we did have taken 3 or 4 APs at most.

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Bureau option was 2 AP cost this turn (Constables are strictly better than a velvet AP, plus our social action), plus an additional 1 AP every turn even if we consider our Detectives AP as useless. So it has to be at bare minimum 4 AP for the "Upfront cost now" option to make sense and not just blatantly correct. We should probably not invest the bare minimum if we aren't forced to.

 

[Solace2117]

I was under the impression that those plans were under the impression that The Quarry of Yuxtabai would contain Velvet.

Which presumably is done under the impression that only require the Commissioner action is required for that.

More realistically I suspect that joining that expedition with the Bureau would require at least another two Velvet AP leaving only three Velvet AP available for Cadence.

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I would think if it took AP outside of the Bureau, that's something important enough the QM would have mentioned. Technically the Bureau takes "multiple AP" in the same way running the farm did. I suppose maybe if we failed a hurdle, or more likely multiple, it might. In story terms it just means Velvet spends her time in the field instead of the office and less time at home. The flavor text probably reads she doesn't see her family as much this month, but it's not enough to interfere with her individual actions.

 

[Pittauro]

It depends how much Velvet can ramp up.

If she faces an army beforehand Hatred gets really really scary.

Like, say Velvet fights 50 Royal Guards in a row before reaching Celestia. That's probably something like a +100. So Velvet just auto wins every round so long as she has Aolts against Celestia.

Of course without Smiles Sacrament that would be really hard given the risk of getting wilted down.

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keep in mind that a pause in the combat would likely remove the bonus.

So, if someone sacrifices himself (or IS sacrificed by others running away) to buy time, the next battle likely resets the bonus.

In any case, I think the narrative aspect of the sacraments counts as much as the mechanical one, and having Velvet's main combat trait being "Your hate gives you super strenght" is definitely the most... problematic of the four.

I mean, it defines Velvet by her hate. That's NOT a good thing, as expected of the Wolf.

The "healthiest" one was definitely her personal one, in my opinion, but mechanically they just all cover different niches. I like the differences.

The Watchman kind of sort of maybe, depending on one's point of view. The Elegiast certainly thinks so. And humans were very much involved in the killing of the Flint, Tide, and Wheel even if The Forge, Grail, and Moth got kill credit for those.

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Sure, but even ignoring that any Hour would have 7 in their lores by definition (AT LEAST), meaning potentially powers that just make combat non-viable... I imagine there's something MORE to their powers than just raw numbers.

I don't think even a +300 combat would allow you to kill an Hour, basically. You need something else.

We're a max-level Winter Influence away from being sacrament gated on Winter.

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I know. But we'd need specifically a tier 4 influence, which isn't guaranteed, and THEN we'd need the 3 actions (and 90 bits).

Next turn we already have to work on Cherenkolt, our SH and Lantern Sacraments, and Smiles. MAYBE we could fit the Winter Sacrament in it, I suppose. we'd also keep the influence for All In and potentially even for the Mansus, so it's not the worst idea. We'll see how it goes.