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Pax's Alternate History Snippet repository.

To be fair China does not need battleships, what it needs is a good number of patrol boats and a decent number of destroyers and submarines. Even cruisers are not a real need because unless they know they are going to war with a big mayor (UK/US/ or even Japan ) on their side, the number they need is insanely expensive.
 
To be fair China does not need battleships, what it needs is a good number of patrol boats and a decent number of destroyers and submarines. Even cruisers are not a real need because unless they know they are going to war with a big mayor (UK/US/ or even Japan ) on their side, the number they need is insanely expensive.
I mean this from a strategic perspective... to be sure I am certain even though I don't have sources handy to look for evidence that there were people in both the northern and southern power structures who were like 'we have to have battleships as symbols of national prestige' regardless of the cost, but the Chinese Navy was always the step child service and during this period the navy was as politically unreliable as army commands. Fukien Clique defected / switched sides several times and the Zhejiang clique squadron defected here leaving Anhui wide open at Shanghai

as the quip goes a ship at sea is its own world
 
To be fair China does not need battleships, what it needs is a good number of patrol boats and a decent number of destroyers and submarines. Even cruisers are not a real need because unless they know they are going to war with a big mayor (UK/US/ or even Japan ) on their side, the number they need is insanely expensive.
You have a point.They are unable to fight USA or Japan fleet even if they built one or two battleship,so why bother building sometching which could not be used?
WW1 could be used as example.Germans built good fleet,but so what? it made one battle,and except that hide in harbours.
Either built sometching which could fight enemy,or not built anytching except submarines and patrol boats.

Not mention China past - they built modern fleet,and french sunk it.They built another,and Japan sunk it.Why bother?
 
You have a point.They are unable to fight USA or Japan fleet even if they built one or two battleship,so why bother building sometching which could not be used?
WW1 could be used as example.Germans built good fleet,but so what? it made one battle,and except that hide in harbours.
Either built sometching which could fight enemy,or not built anytching except submarines and patrol boats.

Not mention China past - they built modern fleet,and french sunk it.They built another,and Japan sunk it.Why bother?
I checked China- french war,and i was wrong - in 1884 Fuzhou battle old french ships sunked obsolate chineese ships.Only new thing was using two torpedo boast,which could not be targeted by chineese guns,becouse they were too fast for them.

That is why every navy later use 37,47,57 and 65mm fast firing guns - to target torpedo boats.
And 65mm guns,thanks to long barrels,could be used for tanks before WW2.Like this:

strange,why nobody did it in OTL.
 
I checked China- french war,and i was wrong - in 1884 Fuzhou battle old french ships sunked obsolate chineese ships.Only new thing was using two torpedo boast,which could not be targeted by chineese guns,becouse they were too fast for them.

That is why every navy later use 37,47,57 and 65mm fast firing guns - to target torpedo boats.
And 65mm guns,thanks to long barrels,could be used for tanks before WW2.Like this:

strange,why nobody did it in OTL.
Xian's venerable 1 PDR is a 37mm fast firing gun, as for the 65mm its a weird caliber the French and Italians did stuff with it but its in the middle between smaller calibers and then stuff like France's preference for the 75 and well the 65 didn't have the much time to come into its own before the war. If world war 1 had not happened we'd have probably seen more done with 65mm because honestly we were already seeing a wide range from 1890-1913 of gun calibers being introduced (new powders, new recoil systems, etc) where there was a drive to develop new things, and then it was disrupted by the war and the demands it placed on production which biased towards how many ~3 inch sized calibers were in service. [I haven't delved into that specifically but I assume that the 70+ probably offered some kind of manufacturing niche or size handling or other factors thats why you had such a wider range number of calibers that proliferated and some of thats probably a dimensional sweet spot in powder and shell size. A 5inch shell is 55lbs roughly (have to go look that up later) a gun crew can do that but much above you're running into problems especially on unpowered systems but 120 does start to win out after that.

65mm works for torpedo boats , the answer is as alays... more research is required
 
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Xian's venerable 1 PDR is a 37mm fast firing gun, as for the 65mm its a weird caliber the French and Italians did stuff with it but its in the middle between smaller calibers and then stuff like France's preference for the 75 and well the 65 didn't have the much time to come into its own before the war. If world war 1 had not happened we'd have probably seen more done with 65mm because honestly we were already seeing a wide range from 1890-1913 of gun calibers being introduced (new powders, new recoil systems, etc) where there was a drive to develop new things, and then it was disrupted by the war and the demands it placed on production which biased towards how many ~3 inch sized calibers were in service. [I haven't delved into that specifically but I assume that the 70+ probably offered some kind of manufacturing niche or size handling or other factors thats why you had such a wider range number of calibers that proliferated and some of thats probably a dimensional sweet spot in powder and shell size. A 5inch shell is 55lbs roughly (have to go look that up later) a gun crew can do that but much above you're running into problems especially on unpowered systems but 120 does start to win out after that.

65mm works for torpedo boats , the answer is as alays... more research is required
i read that nobody made bigger AA guns then 132mm/England Navy/ becouse anytching bigger had schells too heavy for crew to load fast.
Germans had plans and prototypes of 150 and 210mm AA guns,but they had some automated system for loading schells.

I read,that they even build real railgun in the end of WW2 - but it need small electric plant to operate,so......
But when it had enough energy,it worked very well as AA gun.
I hope,that your China manage to made some after WW2 !

P.S Pity,that WW1 do not happened 10 years later - we would have more intsersting guns,and all navies would have superdrednaughts,even A-H.
 
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I apologize about the formatting but this started in PMs, where I was asked about corruption and the political power of the gentry and basically the following is the Gentry is complicated by regional concerns and priorities.


The power (and what policies they support) of the gentry is going to depend more on province, they're basically nonexistent in Tibet where most of their power is wielded by urban merchant classes, and out west in general the gentry are generally stock holders and in Gansu are the part of the gentry most integrated into the new bureaucracy

(On corruption Xian's system has a normal regular uniformed police, but also has the Gendarmes, this is basically a distinction between Provincial Criminal Investigation and Federal Level Investigation so on that note either can bring a criminal investigation forward in corruption and the punishment on conviction would be fines and imprisonment theoretically the death penalty is on the table but that would have to require involvement with the Green Gang, or subverting the transport of arms, explosives, or some other offense beyond petty graft the degree of what corruption by an officer holder can entail is huge).

Its when you move into the east where the gentry in their traditional sense are most influential socially. Shansi's gentry is the most powerful, the most conservative, and most likely to potentially oppose reforms effectively. The cadre portion of western Zhili are less conservative but historically influential however opposition is moderated by grievances and feuds in the south with Henan (Shansi's gentry are more politically active at home opposing reforms than Zhili's, because the latter are directly able to see whats going on next door so they're directly incentivized to support the cadre's reforms.) Shaanxi where the city of Xian is runs a mix depending on if its the north or south of the province closer to Sichuan the gentry have a greater involvement investment in the cross border violence with sichuan, in the north they're more concerned in Xian investing in public works (this is the politically active gentry stronghold of, we dont' care about what happens in the rest of China deal with problems at home faction)

So do the Gentry universally support reforms, no, is the opposition universal no. Historically at the class level Gentry do get type cast as arch conservatives opposing reforms but they're important socially especially at local and county level political affairs which makes them beholden to very regional concerns to the point that usually one of two broad camps isolationist or interventionist which both support different versions of reforms.

For the local average population Xian's public works program is built out around rail access and compulsory education so its pretty involved in everyday life through schools, and public works infrastructure to a lesser extent there are also involvement in public holidays and institutions like the post office.
 
October 1924 New
October 1924

Most of the papers were busy down south, especially because Shanghai was on the frontline of the fighting while the fighting in the north was largely tied up around the great wall. War correspondents wrote of the fighting between the fractured cliques in the same exaggerated language of the 2nd Revolution's fighting at the Woosung forts in 1913.

Percy read the reports filtering from the front of the Fengtian and Zhili fighting with concern. Packed into the narrow confines of mountain passes, and strategic chokepoints... and then urban fighting it was difficult for either side to truly bring to bear the numbers they had put together to fight the war. So long as that fighting continued to be bottled up further north the Cadre could watch, and wait but not expend ammunition. Reports of shell shortages with either side Zhili or Fengtian though were far fewer this time.

That and there was supposed to be an arms embargo on established by the diplomatic community... one that it rather obviously had been flagrantly violated by all sides in the current conflict including the KMT in Canton, but also the Merchant corps who had purchased a sizable order... especially for southern china of machine guns and rifles from a British firm.

That was now a problem given it had been John Jordan acting unilaterally from either Westminster, or from the Prime Minister of the day who'd pushed the embargo through the legation council. It would have been different if the ship hadn't been British flagged or the guns not shipped from a British firm... but the majority of the cargo carried goods that according to John Jordan's embargo was prohibited explicitly. This was not a case of where Vickers and British aircraft firms were shipping 'tractors' or 'airplanes' that were not mentioned by the embargo. The cargo had been rifles and machine guns expressly embargoed by name.

Now Percy was complaining about it.

Allen almost reminded him that the British Empire before the war had supplied most of Sun's weapons anyway... he didn't ... because he wasn't entirely sure that was accurate. It had felt like it in 1912 during the second revolution where most of Sun financing came passing the collection plate around stateside and in Canada and in Chinese communities elsewhere in the Empire. Those funds collected went to buying weapons which were often bought commercially, put on British merchant vessels and shipped to Canton, Shanghai or Hong Kong.

"You know we go to the polls in a few weeks, yes."

Percy blew slightly on his tea cup, "Oh yes, believe me I've walked the town, heard the stump speeches going on outside... and General Cullen's new XO, Colonel Ma, seems quite enthusiastic about the current polling." Ma even leaving aside his family roots had been vocal over where he stood in terms of the electorate. There were plenty of ethnic Manchus who supported modernization... Manchuria itself showed that, but there were also conservatives and conservatives among Hui, and Han particularly in land holders who were removed from their immediate neighbors. Ma's father having been a degree holder in the old dynasty and having lived in Zhili made his anti-southern bonafides quite solid.

Jun back home was enthusiastic as well... but she owned the largest papers in Xian, and controlled the editors there of. "I imagine he would given things." Zhang the younger was currently doing his best to carry off a remarkable combined arms operation. Coordinating by radio and telegraph, and telephone air and armor units... and allegedly with the Mukden fleet... such as the Manchurian Navy was. "The young marshal does seem to be showing he paid attention in school."

Vickers sold to lots of people in China, but had exported several prototypes... or near enough tanks to Zhang Tsolin in their competition with Fiat... and Italy more broadly selling to Manchuria. "Zhang has repeatedly made overtures congenial in tone."

"And he might well mean it," Allen replied, "But," And the emphasis there, was how much of this whole affair smacked of being in some part, "the Beiyang Army Yuan Shikai built is moribund," Was dead now, "Even Zhang seems to admit this at home with Manchuria at large... but his army, or at least its leadership reminds me of the Old Dynasty."

"The old marshal does still send gifts to Pu Yi." Percy stated with a slight tilt of his head, and when Zhang Xun had tried to put Pu Yi back, Zhang Tso-lin hadn't objected in any meaningful sense. "I wouldn't say you're wrong... I suppose things with Manchuria... its different in Fengtian." How much the population actually supported the Qing was debatable Allen didn't know... and frankly didn't care, and Percy really underscored why with the next point, "If Manchuria were largely self governing," They were, "autonomous within the system still it would be different. If only Zhang would stay north of the wall I think he and Manchuria would quite prosperous, but this war is going to be expensive."

and that was the focus of the paper, and the arguments... and much of the chatter that went on that didn't make into official records "Certainly Zhang last time spent an immense sum of money last time, I don't care to guess what he's spent to make this go around possible." But beyond that, most of Jun editorial columns drove home a message based on a wealthy country strong army... that having a wealthy population at large supported the existence of a powerful military.

Everything ... the last ten years had gotten, so much larger. "China would be better with a federal system," Percy half complained, "At least when Yuan was alive there was no question about a recognized leader." But Yuan had always been aware of his mortality, that men in his family never lived especially long... and when he'd passed it had split the beiyang, and those cracks in the system had continued to wide, "And the cadre?"

"Its hardly 1914 anymore. The hundred of us used to be able to be hands on in some degree for nearly everything," Allen replied, but that had been in Zhili and then steadily further west, before Tibet, before Xinjiang, "We will continue to build out the railroad out west," But branch lines took more planning than trunks and that wasn't even considering building out internationally... the Cadre's railway commission had been optimistic about a transcontinental railroad that linked overland trade to Europe through Turkey but that required time. "There is a growing distinction between what we do as government,"

"And as, Nakamichi would say the family holding company," Percy remarked. Zaibatsu meant wealthy clique, there was the fundamental assumption at least with the originals that they would preserve the inheritance and grow the family as it were. It was language about responsibility, from the worker to the very top, to growing the firm, and minding the debt, "Not that he sees too much of an issue, Mitsui and Mitsubishi both are heavily involved in the business in Japan."

Which was true, but "Waite," And his wing of the cadre argued that there needed to be a greater separation... part of that was the consequences of what had happened, "The financial downturn after the war spooked him more than most, we look at Japan's expenditures. The bank of Taiwan comes to mind, the Industrial bank," One just looked at the balance sheets, and tried not to flinch at the sums.

"Japan does have to pay for a navy... and there was the earthquake."

"And both of those put pressures on spending. Those bonds are going to have to be paid back, and the Navy will always want bigger newer ships and those take time." They took money, and now there was the heavy push to move away from coal which Japan had in abundance to move to oil which Japan did not. "The both of us, benefitted from the shift at market when Europe went to war, France has shot itself in the foot by going to tariffs," And that hadn't helped with some other countries where retaliation had sometimes resulted in friendly fire, "after but we both benefit from free trade, especially with the yen off the gold standard." If the yen went back it would appreciate in value. Japan had an open economy with want for access to buy and sell goods at market.

"So this is about fiscal policy relative to trade with the Empire," Britain, the pound sterling. "Then the cadre the business side and the government should be on the same page. I don't see where Waite's problem lies."

"Stricter regulation of banks makes loans harder at home. The central bank has a mandate to keep inflation under control, and employment high..." Which often enough were subject to competing opposed factors.

... and Percy knew that, "Ah, there is the rub. Employment is considered more significant because of the state of infrastructure, the Old Dynasty leaving things off and not spending money for the state of the treasury leaves you needing to invest. Now you have to do it as a government, because its about the public good. Do you have a time table on when you'll work on the canals?" The New Works, as it was generally put in the papers.

"Next year, after the lower house is seated, or if not this session then the one after that. The drought has been a problem but there were other things to deal with."
--
Notes: The US has by this point eclipsed the UK in economic size and productivity (particularly in the financial sector) and actually has been for about a decade but the British Empire, its pound sterling are still major trade systems, and given trade conditions it makes more sense for Xian to do what Japan, Sweden, Denmark did economically in the interwar regarding currency pegging at this stage in part due to US leadership but also just because of existing trade partnerships. Chinese trade to the UK was important enough to be brought up in the Commons during the interwar years, here the UK has a reason to prefer Xian uses the Pound as a medium of exchange over the dollar in order to buy Chinese goods

Also Xian can trade directly via railline into British India now so it certainly makes more sense toengage with British systems due to previous ties. Long Term post WW2obviously everyone's going to peg off the USD even before we get tothe petrodollar arrangement but thats well into the future.
 
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I hope,that manchurians here would survive as people.
About British financial problems, i read anecdote :

King of England was on hollidays ,meet there famous lawyer, and asked him about helping with England money problems.Dude spend entire day looking at papers,go to King and saidd - your Majesty,your countr is bancrupt,but if you gave Australia and other colonies to your wife,it could be partially fixes !

i read it long ago,so i could fuck sometching.

About tanks - it is funny,that italians had best tanks in 1924/Fiat3000/ , but during WW2 they produced tanks which was arleady obsolate,and in lesser numbers then americans or english.
When their M14 must face more Shermans,it was certainly not funny.
I read that one of their aces,who died heroically,manage to win for some time using M14,becouse he learned how to hit british tanks caterpillars.

and,as i mentioned earlier,they could had better tanks.

P.S Brits breaking their own embargo...i am shocked!
 
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I hope,that manchurians here would survive as people.
About British financial problems, i read anecdote :

King of England was on hollidays ,meet there famous lawyer, and asked him about helping with England money problems.Dude spend entire day looking at papers,go to King and saidd - your Majesty,your countr is bancrupt,but if you gave Australia and other colonies to your wife,it could be partially fixes !

i read it long ago,so i could fuck sometching.

About tanks - it is funny,that italians had best tanks in 1924/Fiat3000/ , but during WW2 they produced tanks which was arleady obsolate,and in lesser numbers then americans or english.
When their M14 must face more Shermans,it was certainly not funny.
I read that one of their aces,who died heroically,manage to win for some time using M14,becouse he learned how to hit british tanks caterpillars.

and,as i mentioned earlier,they could had better tanks.

P.S Brits breaking their own embargo...i am shocked!
So with Italy, its the breakdown between the disconnect between Mussolini prioritizing the Navy especially (you see this problem with Japan also) in regards to oil and steel production, but also Italian procurement didn't keep up with doctrine, due to how Fiat and the other big company I don't remember their name,j were tied into the system. In 1924 the Fiat 3000 was a much more reasonable tank than the preceding Fiat entry and it makes sense for what the Italians wanted for the Army of the Po at the time for fighting in the north of the country and also in conditions abroad

The problem is Mussolini wants both Autarky and also wants this great impressive navy so even though Italy does procure a sizable number of tanks in the interwar years procurement doesn't keep up with their own doctrine. The semovente concept wasn't new or outlandish when it finally went into production the Italians had started talking it about a decade earlier and mobility killing a tank takes it out of the fight which doesn't necessarily require catastrophically defeating the enemy armor


the down side to that strategy is comparably high skill level, and you want good glass in the tank, because most likely you're going to be buttoned up when take that shot. The M14's 47mm though is fine for that role because you're attacking at either an angle or from the side not where the armor is strongest.

So with Italian procurement despite two successive heads of the army going 'the army is not ready' over procurement the Army continued to procure tanks that were Italian made but based on in some cases two iterations of Italian doctrine out of date. This is what contributed to so many tankettes being produced by Italy despite horrible performance in Ethiopia and in Spain, also because they were cheap (which does go to doctrine as well, but tankettes were inexpensive and light which meant they could conduct reconnaissance)

versus the Americans, The Sherman any version of had a more effective development and benefitted from the much larger american mechanization and availability of labor who were familiar with mechanical work on automobiles. Is the Sherman perfect? No, but arguably The Sherman the single best tank (in weight class / as produced) for everyone's actual medium tank doctrine if you had to pick one in terms of meeting the requirements. So putting it against the outdated M14 is again a fault of Italian doctrine and grand strategy
 
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So with Italy, its the breakdown between the disconnect between Mussolini prioritizing the Navy especially (you see this problem with Japan also) in regards to oil and steel production, but also Italian procurement didn't keep up with doctrine, due to how Fiat and the other big company I don't remember their name,j were tied into the system. In 1924 the Fiat 3000 was a much more reasonable tank than the preceding Fiat entry and it makes sense for what the Italians wanted for the Army of the Po at the time for fighting in the north of the country and also in conditions abroad

The problem is Mussolini wants both Autarky and also wants this great impressive navy so even though Italy does procure a sizable number of tanks in the interwar years procurement doesn't keep up with their own doctrine. The semovente concept wasn't new or outlandish when it finally went into production the Italians had started talking it about a decade earlier and mobility killing a tank takes it out of the fight which doesn't necessarily require catastrophically defeating the enemy armor


the down side to that strategy is comparably high skill level, and you want good glass in the tank, because most likely you're going to be buttoned up when take that shot. The M14's 47mm though is fine for that role because you're attacking at either an angle or from the side not where the armor is strongest.

So with Italian procurement despite two successive heads of the army going 'the army is not ready' over procurement the Army continued to procure tanks that were Italian made but based on in some cases two iterations of Italian doctrine out of date. This is what contributed to so many tankettes being produced by Italy despite horrible performance in Ethiopia and in Spain, also because they were cheap (which does go to doctrine as well, but tankettes were inexpensive and light which meant they could conduct reconnaissance)

versus the Americans, The Sherman any version of had a more effective development and benefitted from the much larger american mechanization and availability of labor who were familiar with mechanical work on automobiles. Is the Sherman perfect? No, but arguably The Sherman the single best tank (in weight class / as produced) for everyone's actual medium tank doctrine if you had to pick one in terms of meeting the requirements. So putting it against the outdated M14 is again a fault of Italian doctrine and grand strategy
Thanks !

It was Ansaldo,they,with Fiat,had monopoly on tanks in Italy - one of reasons why their tanks sucked.

tankettes in Ethiopia - i read,that one was captured by chieftain with sword,who killed crew.Fun thing - at least one japaneese officer tried the same against american tank on Pacyfic,but it not worked.Wonder why?

Jokes aside - tankettes were stupid idea,but Bren Carrier were not.Your China could mass produce them here before brits for mechanized infrantry.
and recon light tanks,like brit MK VI,but with 20mm gun,would work,too.

Fun think - Poland choosed tankettes in OTL for exactly the same reasons like italians - we need tanks,but do not had money.

another fun thing - Italy lacked money becouse they keep lot of infrantry divisions.If they keep only mechanized and mountain divisions,and train reservists for infrantry,they would actually had money for good tanks.

Their powerfull Navy - they still partially wasted that money,becouse they spend a lot on fast cruisers/40 knots/ who could be fast,but unable to hit anytching when they go fast.
When they want to have chance in hitting anyrching,they must made 30 knots,like brits.

another thing - building battleships/good one/ instead of both battleships and carriers.Brit navy planes sucked, so if italians intriduced their carriers with Re 2001 fighter bombers, it would be massacre.

Another thing - their Navy do not get air forces,becouse almost all planes except floatplanes go to Air forces.Who do not had dive bombers/well,not good one,only SM 86/ only medium bombers which could not hit amytching for entire war.
And usually could not recognize which ships are brits,and attacked all.

When medium bombers sometimes hit something,they used 100kg bombs ,and,as a result,almost none of british warships was sunk by them.
I read of case when 100kg bomb do not exploded - but still kill some poor british sailor....

Later they used MC200 with 400 kg bombs,and then they sunk few destroyers.Interesting thing - those bombs were 320mm schells,just like later 640kg bombs were 380mm schells.
They simply turned schells from battleships into bombs instead of making new bombs.Good idea,i think.
Japan did the same with 406mm schells/8ookg bombs/

Here,Semovente wiki - it had puny 125/145 hp engine,your China tank should be much faster and mobile.

P.S About Sherman tanks - they were still good against PzIV and T.34, and they were also extremally reliable - they could made 4000km without breaking.Or more.
Compared to german PzV - i read about one battle on East Front.45 Pz V schoot soviet tank Brigade to pieces without loosing even one tank,but then soviet flanked them,germans must widraw - and abadonn half of tanks,becouse they could not move.

Soviet tanks were not much better - they were made for few battles,becouse later they were desytoyed anyway.So,when WW2 ended, soviet discovered that ONLY tanks which would work more then week were american Shermans and british Valiants.

Another "fun" think - soviet 85mm schells on paper was much better then american 76mm for Shermans.In reality americam schells were better,becouse soviet mass produced shit.

The same goes for armour - soviets who used both brit Matilda and KV1/the same front armour/ said,that british armour was better.

All in all,when you consider soviet produced stuff,you must keep in mind that in reality it was much worst then what they claimed,becouse they mass produced it.

Patton was right when he said that he could take on soviets and win,and that is why he get murdered.
 
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October 23rd 1924 New
October 23rd ​1924
The war had eclipsed Double Ten day, but even if it hadn't the holiday had meant increasingly less in the north's urban districts of note. With Beiyang units fighting each other especially in cities with or formerly with republican sentiments there seemed little reason to celebrate the conflict between warlords. Sun had had to turn back from his Northern Expedition to handle the uprising in Canton, and that had turned into a bloodletting all on its own.

It was about five in the Morning, "What happened?"

"A repeat of with Zhang Xun, basically."

Not exactly, but close enough. "Feng came in with a few thousand troops, and with the Peking Gendarmes seized the government. Cao Kun has been placed under house arrest, and been ordered to dismiss Wu Pei-fu."

"Has it hit the papers yet?"

"No." Came the reply. "Probably wont until the evening edition, but the news service," On radios in offices, banks, some of the shop floors, on trains... the places where you could have radios for public listening now, "will carry it this morning and certainly by lunch."

It would probably follow the same playbook. That Cao Kun would be convinced to resign the presidency and he'd invariably make for the legation at Tietsin, and that then there would be the arguing over who would step in. Would Duan Qirui possibly as Prime Minister, was the first war's arrangement to divide the government valid this year? Or had new arrangements been put together... obviously in theory Zhang Tsolin should be in charge, but Feng had a brigade in the capital, and possession was nine tenths the law.

Allen stood up,. Xian went to the polls in two weeks. The public had already been openly questioning the idea of the Republic as a larger institution. Cao Kun buying his way into the presidency had been a scandal enough... but there hadn't been elections the year Zhang Xun had seized the capital.

The entire public discourse had been different. "You thinking of sending me back to town?" Cole asked. He meant Xian to see to the public at large

"Don't be stupid, I can't send you back. Shut the rail line down. We're closing the borders."

"Feng has ordered opening the line," the rail that ran down from the Great Wall," down to the legation," To Tietsin, "He can already move troops into Eastern Zhili. This was no longer about that. This was about troops crossing down the Hankou line... in either direction, and preventing any movement south of the capital that couldn't otherwise be contained. "The troops at Zhengzhou are already deployed to check the gentry in Honan trying anything." But Cullen's expression already suggested he understood the order for what it was.

Feng had betrayed the Zhili clique, marched into the capital in the middle of the night and with other co conspirators arrested the president of the Republic. He'd effectively opened a second front behind the Zhili force in the north, and Zhang was likely going to push. Whether Feng actually attempted to push down from Baoding did not matter, if Zhang came into the capital and moved south the situation was an accident weighted towards a shooting war.

When Zhang Xun's lieutenant had taken Baoding, and fired on Cadre troops, by apparent accident, in western Zhili the response had been to shut down the railways at a time when the factories in Xian and elsewhere were producing goods for the European war effort. Here, that wasn't a concern... or at least the disruption of shipping goods had already been factored in so it was vastly less of a concern.

"So we tally the numbers, determine how many troops Zhang has lost." Cullen replied, "How many other troops might switch sides, or join Feng specifically. Then estimate what they have in ammunition." Then they would wait, and see... much as they had been doing throughout October and September before it.

By lunch the official telegrams had come in from Tietsin with still more news. Feng had sent out a series of telegram circulars through the morning. He had broadly agreed with Zhang Tso-lin regarding topics like corruption, lambasted Wu Pei-fu though not quite in the same language as Zhang had done... though he had suggested that Wu had been incompetent, corrupt and mismanaged army resources. A circular telegrams went it was more or less par for the course.

What he had done beyond that was to approach the American Legation in Tietsin regarding a conference. His next round of telegrams had been slightly more conciliatory than the naming and shaming but called on an end to the fighting which he had begun describing as a civil war and that negotiations needed to be taken up to 'restore the nation'.

It wasn't the rhetoric... that wasn't likely to work given that Feng had been a high ranking member if apparently a very disaffected one within the Zhili clique. Whatever that rhetoric was worth to people on the streets the betrayal stained credibility... it was more so that he'd approached the legation to facilitate discussions publicly even as the fighting took on a new pace in the environs of the Great Wall.

Had Feng done this earlier the Anhui clique might have been in a better position todo something more. Sun's Northern Expedition as well. As it was the young marshal had now committed his tanks for a breakout, and along with Zhang Zongcheng, no relation, with his own force cavalry to penetrate the lines Feng had abandoned the day before and were now wreaking bloody havoc in the rear end with the support of Marshal Zhang's air force as the defensive forces came apart at the seams.

Wu was still in the field. Still had an estimated two hundred thousand troops give ortake despite the breakthrough and reported defections and was still largely fighting in ground that favored a defender. In theory if Wucould reassert discipline to the army then Zhang had not actually won, whatever the Japanese attache in Manchuria was claiming about the state of Zhili morale as he and the Italian attache rode along with the young marshal through the gap.

On the other hand the consensus here was that morale problem certainly wasn't helping. Wu had waited too long to mobilize. On an even longer term scale Zhili had not organized engaged in reforms to structure their units more effectively... even though according to reports Fengtian hadn't been perfect there... they could have pursued some kind of modernization. They could have modernized in other ways, and expanded procurement and training.

There were also the Zhili armies in Zhejiang, and Kiangsu, around the river delta. Could that prolong the conflict certainly did it seem likely too...no if only because Peking had fallen and the existing financial problems of the Zhili clique were now pronounced by no longer holding the capital.
Shan leaned over, "I've ordered the Heavy Combat Engineers to reinforce the works," Nothing too serious, more timber and more barbed wire, but he slid a sketch across, ;"We could take and replace the observation posts." A ton of steel reinforcing bars here, and thirty odd cubic feet of concrete would could be thrown up to replace the temporary ones." These would be fast enough and provide men on the hill protected firing positions for their machine guns." These sorts of things would have been nothing significant in the south along the border with Szechwan, they'd never been necessary in the north... but they would otherwise look like little more than border checkpoints compared to more significant fortifications
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Notes: This concludes 1924, fighting between Fengtian versus Zhili and with other factions attacking the Zhili clique continuing into November when Xian would go to the polls. We get a look at the observer reports of the breakthrough made possible by Feng's defection and his moving back to the capital to launch his coup so the Guominjun doesn't exist yet (officially), and Duan Qirui is not yet PM again but that is what happens at the end of the year.

The other thing besides the betrayal is that Feng would expel Puyi, and Zhang Tsolinwould go on to historically move Puyi to Tietsin, and in the longer term Puyi would eventually go to Manchuria as a figurehead monarch,which we will get to later on.

Feng's coup, Zhang Tsolin, Duan coming back basically leads to Xian espousing its independent from the idea of a unified China this isn't actually amajor issue until after Sun's death, and Chiang talking about his intention to March North. I have so much material I'm going to have to find the time to reread and work on, lovely.

But anyway,Zhang the young Marshal (and yeah there are a lot of Suns, and Zhangsacross north and south china in different armies, and even inManchuria very very few of them are rleated to the point that thenewspapers made jokes about it.) gets to do his combined arms thing,Zongcheng gets mentioned we will hear more of his division and corplater especially as we talk about Manchuria and Mongolia both in '25where we will be dealing with Xian's increasing efforts abroad ininternational trade and infrastructure
 

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