Pax's Alternate History Snippet repository.

[Imperator Pax]

Late September 1924
Allen surveyed at the troops in place along the unmarked border between 'Western' and 'Eastern' provinces. Silently contemplating what this would do to their own studies, their own population's opinions. Overhead the aircraft made themselves known with the signature of their engines, the buzz, more practically than anything else they carried up therewith them the Albatross's radios communicated with ground positions of what could be observed high above them.

There had been the surprise as Zhang had broken out into China proper observed regarding his apparently Italian... and possibly domestically manufactured copies of... copies of the French Renault. Not in firepower, but rather in its overlanding speed. The Japanese were apparently impressed, even if all Zhang the younger was doing was moving them as mobile pillboxes... which had potentially been the advice of the Italians.

The point stood that the reports filtering to them was a picture regarding the application of tanks in a fight today. ETS Companies outfitted with the latest combat cars were deployed, men waiting impatiently forward of the main line. Waiting for an enemy that would have to breakthrough into the suburbs north of Peking before they had anything to do... but that was part of the job.

That didn't make sitting here any less tedious for them. So they waited.

The Dragoons had a mix of newer finalized caliber guns, and the original iteration of the 20mm Bekker guns Xian had selected as interim replacement for the dated 1PDRs with a more accurate longer ranged weapon. :Even that had been a logistical hurdle by the Quartermasters to manage on time to pull old guns and replacement in the brigade which had still been using the old guns for training purposes over the past year.

It represented the continuous process of improvement and evaluation... more than the four years of it since the constitution had come into effect... but the constitution had changed the way army finances were structured. In the autumn of 1923 that had coalesced with the conclusion to stepladder development.

"These boys are going to be a handful next year." Cole joked looking out across the field works with a well serviced sixty power spotting scope. The suburban expanse of Baoding, and particularly the length of the rail line running north into the city prominent from the hill they stood on.

When they would actually begin pushing up the full strength Cavalry ETS formation, rather than just mechanized 'mounted' infantry. The idea had still borrowed heavily from Cullen's table of 1923, but the majority of the brigade were armed with the 1920 Rifle and the standard Lewis Gun. The cars that carried them were almost entirely open topped fitting either a belt fed Colt Browning for the more common carriers, and supplemented by Bekker SEMAG models in others. "Next year we will be able to fit them out as more than just Mounted Rifles." Which some members of 1st​ Regiment had already complained were what they were anyway... but they needed to be trialing and testing new units... and this was had been deemed the most effective method of preparing men for the shift over. "Right now we just need to make sure they don't go too stir crazy waiting to see if something does come across the line." There was nothing here for them to scout, so they couldn't even try and implement theoretical doctrine which left them serving as additional bodies.

The Brigade also had to contend with lighter artillery but with 10th​ on hand that actually made things less of a concern. It also gave them another full strength division to rely on. "Half a million men fighting is a lot to keep track of though." and even though the fighting mostly focused north east of Peking particularly around the Great Wall... there were other problems

Nearest was unrest in Peking itself; mostly students but some grumbling from the middle class professionals. Further away though was the accepted cassus belli of the whole conflict the Zhili ambitions upon the administration of Shanghai. Under the effectively defunct Anhui clique Shanghai had been more or less left alone... if Sun Chuanfang did manage to exert control and dispossess the clique that might change. It probably wouldn't, but the handwringing from the bund was raucous now at this stage.

It frankly made them look ridiculous... but it also allowed Sun's messaging to circulate both in Shanghai and up in Peking which was making the rounds, for instance in the North China Herald. "Do you think Sun could force a railway strike?"

"Force one," Cole shook his head, "no, take credit for one certainly. I don't see him actually being able to start one," But if he endorsed one that started in Shanghai then it could expand... potentially the point of stymieing the Zhili clique's ability to mobilize other troops. "But given the talks of a boycott as it is, thats going to make the bund more squirmish not less." Because it would start hitting them in the pocketbook. "Which will make them complain more."

In 1917 in order to quell the fighting ... more by intimidation than actually action...Duan had mustered a coalition of fifty thousand Beiyang troops. In 1922 when Zhang had first locked horns with Wu total troops between Fengtian and Zhili had run about a quarter of million men. Two years, roughly thirty months down the road from that fight both Zhili and Fengtian were putting that in the field.

Unlike last time5th​ and 6th​ Brigades were with the division they had been developed to support. They were sitting with 3rd​Division in the south at the defensive cordon based from the white mountain range headquarters probably equally bored out of their goddamned minds. "Shan suspects we will need to adjust planning. If Zhang fails here, and maintains power in Manchuria... or even if he doesn't and some one else in Manchuria steps up then a threat from the north seems plausible."

Zhang Xun had done it in 1917 after all. "Is that Ma's advice," Referring to Cullen's recently selected executive officer. "That we will continue to look at a challenge from Manchuria to impose leadership over the government in Peking?"

"I think his concern is more the inadequacy of the leadership in Peking thats the problem, allowing the colonel doesn't like Wellington," Koo, the Foreign Minister, "in the slightest." Which frankly was now a common complaint, Koo... too frequently tried to straddle a middle of the road position... it had elicited complaints north southeast and west, even when the man had a point. It was too easy to hit Woo for having been in the Beiyang government as long as he had but who didn't have the advantage of troops of his own. "I think he was angry when Koo was put in as prime minister," never mind that the instability of that office, "and giddy when they replaced him." The day when Zhang had gone to lead his troops to the front... which had mostly been a ceremonial sort of thing to begin with. "I'll give you he's impatient, but impetuousness is a family flaw I'm given to understand."

Allen snorted unscrewed his canteen and took a sip of the water, checking his wristwatch before looking over the terrain again. He shrugged, "As it sits, Zhengzhou remains a point of concern right now." Eighth Division was sitting in the south officially at Qinghai, the Ninth at Urumqi. Fifth division, and a handful of National Guard Infantry brigades sat in the southern portion of their half of Zhili to protect Zhengzhou having been called up and had their summer drill extended.

6th​and 7th​ Divisions husbanded as a reserve were being held back with wait and see caution. "The fiscal conservatives are going to take a hit in the polls. Yan has said that Taiyuan," he actually meant the province, but since Cadre membership didn't preclude holding other offices Yan was also governor of the province in question, "could if it needed to support a hundred thousand reservists," Which was something he had said before. "And while he's fiscally conservative that detail has not escaped the folks who want a larger army..." And obviously Zhili, and Fengtian especially throwing a quarter of a million men into the field... contributing the majority of their troops to a perceived titanic, destined reshaping of the status quo required. "And lets be honest. Yuan Shikai wanted half a million men because it was a number that was manageable at a national level not because it would meet requirements to defend the country at large."

... and that was the limiting factor of ten divisions. The east west breadth that Xian's governance stretched across... from here in Western Zhili to the border with Kirghiz with Xinjiang in the far west through kansu... and with elections in just a couple of months Zhang had pushed what would have ordinarily been a second or third order issue much farther forward in the public consciousness.

Not that this would harm the Old Marshal personally, but it would shape the direction of the electorate in 1926, and then in the following elections of 1928... but that was in the future. "And the government was hemorrhaging money worse than it is now." The national debt was still a problem for China, but it was not nearly as bad as things had stood when the Old Dynasty had finally given up, and Yuan Shikai had become president, "Well regardless we should be getting back," He declared looking towards the forward observers manning other parts of the redoubt, "The Bund's fussing for the moment is taking up attention, Sun," the southern doctor, not Sun the actual General, the one in the Zhili clique, "causing a riot, boycott or strike will cause more trouble than any of the troops he can probably put into the field but I still want to know what he can put in the field."

--
Notes: Here 1st ​Dragoons, is still basically a Rifle Brigade. It has not converted to its Cavalry Brigade configuration as it will fight the Northern Expedition. Hence this segment reiterating Mounted Rifle Infantry...this goes to doctrine and equipment as Xian expands its build out phase ahead of Cavalry becoming its own branch. What this is is the demonstration of the trend we saw start for Xian in 1922

But also, four years after the Constitution has come into effect, Xian is running into the issue of its actual geographic breadth. Xian is by geography the largest of the three major factions, with Manchuria the smallest. Note this does not in 1924 include any of southern china, for reasons we touch with Sun's Northern Expedition of 1924, and more broadly the atomization of authority rampant across southern china most epitomized by the status Sichuan province

 

[Imperator Pax]

October 1924
The paper was aheadache but not unique. Cao Kun had done a lot to discredit the legitimacy of the office of the president of China... only an idiot would have argued otherwise... but now the legitimacy was questioned further as the battle in the north started to shift.

This year's elections came on with significantly different rhetoric as the house campaigned. The incumbents weren't happy with the situation in Peking, but their challengers took it to a whole another level with lambasting things. The papers were filled with it.

What the papers were talking about though were not the same thing officers were looking at. "Do we know what the Italians did differently?"

"Entirely, no." Waite replied from over the bowl of buckwheat noodles, and hot sauce, "I think they regeared the suspension I'm sure the engines are slightly better... but without getting under the hood I can't say. Zhang," Presumably that was Zhang the Younger, "supports Italian doctrine, and is using them to bound up to a position and three machine guns in a moving pillbox is not something infantry like to deal with. That lets him cover infantry advances."

Allen imagined it ate a fair bit of ammunition and also probably a fair amount of fuel but it was something that the IJA looked at and agreed that this was what they thought tanks should be used for. Especially since the Renaults weren't that heavy, and whatever the Italians had done gave them better cross country performance, "I'd be interested to hear Iseburo's thoughts on it," He remarked. Officially, in the name of expediency, the Kwantung Army and their neighbors in Siberia to the north purchased as 'interim' or otherwise non standard weapons, a variety of 8mm Mausers particularly machineguns to compensate for lack of standard options. It let them sidestep official procurement by buying 'commercial' options from other funds.

Ordinance back home, even with Crozier out of the service, would have never allowed that but the budget conscious army headquarters was prepared to look the other way as long as it came from other sources. The Diet didn't want to approve funding so 'alternatives' could be found as long it didn't cause too much of an issue. "Zhang's success with them seems to be attracting a fair amount of praise."

The problem with that was while there was a 'tank clique' in the army it was just as likely to run headlong into the broader modernizer faction's problems... that being the old advocates of the square divisions...and with tanks... the navy's demands for more hulls and the need for battleplate and steel for those ships... which in turn created a bottleneck for themselves never mind for Army projects.

"And?"

"And we never really bothered looking at Fiat's copy." Waite admitted, "I'd want Otto to look at one... Fiat sells them. Since we fitted all of ours," either based on the French pattern and then the later American pattern left over from the adventure in Siberia, "with his 4 cylinder engine and we called it fine." The use of FT pattern tanks had never been an especially high priority even after fitting them with the 1PDR. "Frankly if we let him do something with the FT it'd be useful enough, if only as a training exercise for training mechanics for next year, or the year after."

Of that Waite had a point as well. Technically skilled men were occasionally difficult to find in the army, where as the navy had machinist mates and so forth. The process of training up men familiar with automobiles really was something that had to be done from scratch. "Can you get him away from the air force long enough for that sort of thing?" Allen asked, half joking... the racers the body of various engineers who were responsible for the development of airplanes and automobiles were beginning to diverge in what one needed.

The Albatross aloft up top were based off of an aircraft built of plywood, and its engine originally had been a V6. Their primary mission remained as observers under doctrine, with newer, larger purpose built fighting machines intended to fit more than just machine guns.

Catching his expression Waite put his own paper aside, "I'm skeptical on how much credit for taking Chifeng the Air Force deserves... but we won't be able to judge that unless he attacks." Zhang the younger had every reason to ascribe great share of the victory to his airmen for attacking Chifeng... because the army had not been able to rapidly breakthrough the defenders and seize the city. "Zhang needed about two weeks to do that." Which had suggested despite greater time and preparation compared to efforts undertaken by Wu and his subordinates... and yet that resistance had probably bought Wu time to consolidate and move troops up. "If Wu can quickly fortify the pass he can make an attack on Shanhaiguan costly."

It wasn't really a question of could he fortify, Allen thought, "Its more why he didn't do it a month ago." He stated bluntly staring north where Xian's 1st​Corp lay spread out, artillery park oriented and waiting by battery for orders.

Or sooner.

Zhang had been posturing for months. The portents of war had been obvious... and Wu had not acted to mobilize. Chifeng had held for two weeks despite only ad hoc defenses being thrown up, and then perhaps little Zhang seeing the effort had thrown a hundred planes at the problem while infantry from the 2nd ​Fengtian Army ... what Xian would have called an Corp being it was three divisions... were bogged down attacking the narrow defensive frontage while the Old Marshal was trying to muster a frontal attack on the gateway into China proper.

An attack that was now underway. The Japanese had cabled that reporting that Zhang Tsolin had been touring his forces directly, and had entrusted the offensive to picked men. "Cole highlighted something about Lu and the machine guns." Lu had lost by defection ... really the zhejiang navy clique switching sides... which wasn't really a surprise given they'd probably been dependent on national funds anyway... ships were expensive to build, or buy and expensive to maintain.

"Had a lot of them, and modern." A large number of Vickers guns had been reported, and Allen wouldn't have been surprised if the Maxims weren't former British stock ... but with Shanghai close at hand that wasn't much of a bet, "Yeah I saw it," Which did give some credence to Sun, the Zhili one, complaining about the neutrality of Shanghai being violated by the Anhui clique... but that could have just as easily been a justification for Zhili's broader political maneuvers. "Sun though isn't exactly short of things," He was functionally Wu's number two, despite not commanding the Beiyang 3rd ​Division; the most politically prestigious command of the Beiyang Army. "And short of pulling off a miracle Lu can't hold out without naval support." Which might free Sun to provide reinforcements that it was beginning to look like he'd need.

"Right," Allen agreed, "Cole's tallying what we know," Through Shanghai, and the British more broadly, "Of this Northern Expedition Sun," The southern one, "is banging on about. We should have a picture by Monday morning." They both considered whether or not the Anhui clique could hold out that long... if they could then the Expedition might be able to force the Zhili commander to divide his forces and fight on two fronts which could compromise the entire outing the Zhili clique had undertaken regarding the south. "Where have we heard that before," Indeed, Cao Kun had been leader of the anti-war faction of the Beiyang army opposing precisely these sorts of forays south that would expose troops to multifronted engagements in the name of taking and holding territory... but those days... that opposition was now passed it seemed.

"Zhengzhou."

"Thats where I want you to go," The other option was Dawes, "We need the 2nd ​Artillery brigade there. I personally am not worried about 5th​,"Not against hunanese gentry since the actual Beiyang division representing Hunan had passed north... even against them he wouldn't have worried, "But-"

"Its to show the flag." Waite waved him off, "Dawes swears in front of the men too much, he'd curse and bluster in front of the papers. We'd be likely Honan would get offended we lump them all in with Bai Lang... and get a fight started that way." which without Zhang Fulai there to threaten the gentry into line might well...

It would have been funny ... except of course the territorial defense battalions of the province were actually that loose in terms of which gentry could order them into action. It wasn't the prospect of a fight starting it was the risk of being put into one right now where it could escalate and get out of hand, and become an even bigger nuisance.
--
Notes: This probably the 9th​of October. Feng has not yet begun to officially move. If Chifeng had fallen swiftly and the breakthrough had happened more effectively at Shanhaiguan he might have changed sides already. I've seen it put forward that Cao Kun and Wu 's handling of the war was what pushed him over the edge... I don't buy that. I feel thats an attempt to rehabilitate Feng.

The other thing is the Kiangsu zhejiang fight is winding down, and Zhili is taking control of Shanghai... the Anhui tried to put up a fight, and there is the implication that Zhang probably might have had a hand in supplying them with some weapons... but not enough... the anhui clique had been dying for awhile

Sun Yat-sen is posturing about marching north again, but then has to turn around because there is a revolt against the KMT in the south. This is why I don't even bother considering Canton an important player at this point. This whole conflict is really the last act of the beiyang as a political force. Feng is about to betray Cao, and just really undermine the last bits of legitimacy the beiyang government had. The anhui clique is dead as any kind of force, Zhili loses significant territory because of the betrayal and Fengtian overstretches itself.

Zhang's actions increasingly to me come off as his basically fighting and securing basically a feudal ordering with modern arms. It shows in the actions he takes even in the year before, and into the spring of 1924 but especially in the summer months leading up to the conflict.

I digress, we are somewhat speedrunning24 and 25 because of basically I lost material and rewriting it would take time. We'll do October of 24 and then Xian goes to elections basically right after Feng deposes Cao Kun which charges the electorate, and also the Comintern aligned KMT commits a massacre in Canton.

So when we pick up in the spring of 25we set the stage for basically the following two years focusing on the Northern Expedition as both a conflict and also the social backdrop which surrounded it... because it does basically here lead to Chiang consolidating power in the south, without actually creating a recognized pan-china government. Zhang is able to hold onto some of his northern gains hampered more by supply limitations and Xian spends more of its time fighting Honan on the border than it does really concerned about the conflict at large.

And realistically Chiang has the same problem actually probably worse than Duan Qirui coming from the opposite direction, the difference is just how broken this conflict has left the Beiyang as a cohesive military.

 

[Imperator Pax]

October 1924

Most of the papers were busy down south, especially because Shanghai was on the frontline of the fighting while the fighting in the north was largely tied up around the great wall. War correspondents wrote of the fighting between the fractured cliques in the same exaggerated language of the 2nd Revolution's fighting at the Woosung forts in 1913.

Percy read the reports filtering from the front of the Fengtian and Zhili fighting with concern. Packed into the narrow confines of mountain passes, and strategic chokepoints... and then urban fighting it was difficult for either side to truly bring to bear the numbers they had put together to fight the war. So long as that fighting continued to be bottled up further north the Cadre could watch, and wait but not expend ammunition. Reports of shell shortages with either side Zhili or Fengtian though were far fewer this time.

That and there was supposed to be an arms embargo on established by the diplomatic community... one that it rather obviously had been flagrantly violated by all sides in the current conflict including the KMT in Canton, but also the Merchant corps who had purchased a sizable order... especially for southern china of machine guns and rifles from a British firm.

That was now a problem given it had been John Jordan acting unilaterally from either Westminster, or from the Prime Minister of the day who'd pushed the embargo through the legation council. It would have been different if the ship hadn't been British flagged or the guns not shipped from a British firm... but the majority of the cargo carried goods that according to John Jordan's embargo was prohibited explicitly. This was not a case of where Vickers and British aircraft firms were shipping 'tractors' or 'airplanes' that were not mentioned by the embargo. The cargo had been rifles and machine guns expressly embargoed by name.

Now Percy was complaining about it.

Allen almost reminded him that the British Empire before the war had supplied most of Sun's weapons anyway... he didn't ... because he wasn't entirely sure that was accurate. It had felt like it in 1912 during the second revolution where most of Sun financing came passing the collection plate around stateside and in Canada and in Chinese communities elsewhere in the Empire. Those funds collected went to buying weapons which were often bought commercially, put on British merchant vessels and shipped to Canton, Shanghai or Hong Kong.

"You know we go to the polls in a few weeks, yes."

Percy blew slightly on his tea cup, "Oh yes, believe me I've walked the town, heard the stump speeches going on outside... and General Cullen's new XO, Colonel Ma, seems quite enthusiastic about the current polling." Ma even leaving aside his family roots had been vocal over where he stood in terms of the electorate. There were plenty of ethnic Manchus who supported modernization... Manchuria itself showed that, but there were also conservatives and conservatives among Hui, and Han particularly in land holders who were removed from their immediate neighbors. Ma's father having been a degree holder in the old dynasty and having lived in Zhili made his anti-southern bonafides quite solid.

Jun back home was enthusiastic as well... but she owned the largest papers in Xian, and controlled the editors there of. "I imagine he would given things." Zhang the younger was currently doing his best to carry off a remarkable combined arms operation. Coordinating by radio and telegraph, and telephone air and armor units... and allegedly with the Mukden fleet... such as the Manchurian Navy was. "The young marshal does seem to be showing he paid attention in school."

Vickers sold to lots of people in China, but had exported several prototypes... or near enough tanks to Zhang Tsolin in their competition with Fiat... and Italy more broadly selling to Manchuria. "Zhang has repeatedly made overtures congenial in tone."

"And he might well mean it," Allen replied, "But," And the emphasis there, was how much of this whole affair smacked of being in some part, "the Beiyang Army Yuan Shikai built is moribund," Was dead now, "Even Zhang seems to admit this at home with Manchuria at large... but his army, or at least its leadership reminds me of the Old Dynasty."

"The old marshal does still send gifts to Pu Yi." Percy stated with a slight tilt of his head, and when Zhang Xun had tried to put Pu Yi back, Zhang Tso-lin hadn't objected in any meaningful sense. "I wouldn't say you're wrong... I suppose things with Manchuria... its different in Fengtian." How much the population actually supported the Qing was debatable Allen didn't know... and frankly didn't care, and Percy really underscored why with the next point, "If Manchuria were largely self governing," They were, "autonomous within the system still it would be different. If only Zhang would stay north of the wall I think he and Manchuria would quite prosperous, but this war is going to be expensive."

and that was the focus of the paper, and the arguments... and much of the chatter that went on that didn't make into official records "Certainly Zhang last time spent an immense sum of money last time, I don't care to guess what he's spent to make this go around possible." But beyond that, most of Jun editorial columns drove home a message based on a wealthy country strong army... that having a wealthy population at large supported the existence of a powerful military.

Everything ... the last ten years had gotten, so much larger. "China would be better with a federal system," Percy half complained, "At least when Yuan was alive there was no question about a recognized leader." But Yuan had always been aware of his mortality, that men in his family never lived especially long... and when he'd passed it had split the beiyang, and those cracks in the system had continued to wide, "And the cadre?"

"Its hardly 1914 anymore. The hundred of us used to be able to be hands on in some degree for nearly everything," Allen replied, but that had been in Zhili and then steadily further west, before Tibet, before Xinjiang, "We will continue to build out the railroad out west," But branch lines took more planning than trunks and that wasn't even considering building out internationally... the Cadre's railway commission had been optimistic about a transcontinental railroad that linked overland trade to Europe through Turkey but that required time. "There is a growing distinction between what we do as government,"

"And as, Nakamichi would say the family holding company," Percy remarked. Zaibatsu meant wealthy clique, there was the fundamental assumption at least with the originals that they would preserve the inheritance and grow the family as it were. It was language about responsibility, from the worker to the very top, to growing the firm, and minding the debt, "Not that he sees too much of an issue, Mitsui and Mitsubishi both are heavily involved in the business in Japan."

Which was true, but "Waite," And his wing of the cadre argued that there needed to be a greater separation... part of that was the consequences of what had happened, "The financial downturn after the war spooked him more than most, we look at Japan's expenditures. The bank of Taiwan comes to mind, the Industrial bank," One just looked at the balance sheets, and tried not to flinch at the sums.

"Japan does have to pay for a navy... and there was the earthquake."

"And both of those put pressures on spending. Those bonds are going to have to be paid back, and the Navy will always want bigger newer ships and those take time." They took money, and now there was the heavy push to move away from coal which Japan had in abundance to move to oil which Japan did not. "The both of us, benefitted from the shift at market when Europe went to war, France has shot itself in the foot by going to tariffs," And that hadn't helped with some other countries where retaliation had sometimes resulted in friendly fire, "after but we both benefit from free trade, especially with the yen off the gold standard." If the yen went back it would appreciate in value. Japan had an open economy with want for access to buy and sell goods at market.

"So this is about fiscal policy relative to trade with the Empire," Britain, the pound sterling. "Then the cadre the business side and the government should be on the same page. I don't see where Waite's problem lies."

"Stricter regulation of banks makes loans harder at home. The central bank has a mandate to keep inflation under control, and employment high..." Which often enough were subject to competing opposed factors.

... and Percy knew that, "Ah, there is the rub. Employment is considered more significant because of the state of infrastructure, the Old Dynasty leaving things off and not spending money for the state of the treasury leaves you needing to invest. Now you have to do it as a government, because its about the public good. Do you have a time table on when you'll work on the canals?" The New Works, as it was generally put in the papers.

"Next year, after the lower house is seated, or if not this session then the one after that. The drought has been a problem but there were other things to deal with."
--
Notes: The US has by this point eclipsed the UK in economic size and productivity (particularly in the financial sector) and actually has been for about a decade but the British Empire, its pound sterling are still major trade systems, and given trade conditions it makes more sense for Xian to do what Japan, Sweden, Denmark did economically in the interwar regarding currency pegging at this stage in part due to US leadership but also just because of existing trade partnerships. Chinese trade to the UK was important enough to be brought up in the Commons during the interwar years, here the UK has a reason to prefer Xian uses the Pound as a medium of exchange over the dollar in order to buy Chinese goods

Also Xian can trade directly via railline into British India now so it certainly makes more sense toengage with British systems due to previous ties. Long Term post WW2obviously everyone's going to peg off the USD even before we get tothe petrodollar arrangement but thats well into the future.

 

[Imperator Pax]

October 23rd ​1924
The war had eclipsed Double Ten day, but even if it hadn't the holiday had meant increasingly less in the north's urban districts of note. With Beiyang units fighting each other especially in cities with or formerly with republican sentiments there seemed little reason to celebrate the conflict between warlords. Sun had had to turn back from his Northern Expedition to handle the uprising in Canton, and that had turned into a bloodletting all on its own.

It was about five in the Morning, "What happened?"

"A repeat of with Zhang Xun, basically."

Not exactly, but close enough. "Feng came in with a few thousand troops, and with the Peking Gendarmes seized the government. Cao Kun has been placed under house arrest, and been ordered to dismiss Wu Pei-fu."

"Has it hit the papers yet?"

"No." Came the reply. "Probably wont until the evening edition, but the news service," On radios in offices, banks, some of the shop floors, on trains... the places where you could have radios for public listening now, "will carry it this morning and certainly by lunch."

It would probably follow the same playbook. That Cao Kun would be convinced to resign the presidency and he'd invariably make for the legation at Tietsin, and that then there would be the arguing over who would step in. Would Duan Qirui possibly as Prime Minister, was the first war's arrangement to divide the government valid this year? Or had new arrangements been put together... obviously in theory Zhang Tsolin should be in charge, but Feng had a brigade in the capital, and possession was nine tenths the law.

Allen stood up,. Xian went to the polls in two weeks. The public had already been openly questioning the idea of the Republic as a larger institution. Cao Kun buying his way into the presidency had been a scandal enough... but there hadn't been elections the year Zhang Xun had seized the capital.

The entire public discourse had been different. "You thinking of sending me back to town?" Cole asked. He meant Xian to see to the public at large

"Don't be stupid, I can't send you back. Shut the rail line down. We're closing the borders."

"Feng has ordered opening the line," the rail that ran down from the Great Wall," down to the legation," To Tietsin, "He can already move troops into Eastern Zhili. This was no longer about that. This was about troops crossing down the Hankou line... in either direction, and preventing any movement south of the capital that couldn't otherwise be contained. "The troops at Zhengzhou are already deployed to check the gentry in Honan trying anything." But Cullen's expression already suggested he understood the order for what it was.

Feng had betrayed the Zhili clique, marched into the capital in the middle of the night and with other co conspirators arrested the president of the Republic. He'd effectively opened a second front behind the Zhili force in the north, and Zhang was likely going to push. Whether Feng actually attempted to push down from Baoding did not matter, if Zhang came into the capital and moved south the situation was an accident weighted towards a shooting war.

When Zhang Xun's lieutenant had taken Baoding, and fired on Cadre troops, by apparent accident, in western Zhili the response had been to shut down the railways at a time when the factories in Xian and elsewhere were producing goods for the European war effort. Here, that wasn't a concern... or at least the disruption of shipping goods had already been factored in so it was vastly less of a concern.

"So we tally the numbers, determine how many troops Zhang has lost." Cullen replied, "How many other troops might switch sides, or join Feng specifically. Then estimate what they have in ammunition." Then they would wait, and see... much as they had been doing throughout October and September before it.

By lunch the official telegrams had come in from Tietsin with still more news. Feng had sent out a series of telegram circulars through the morning. He had broadly agreed with Zhang Tso-lin regarding topics like corruption, lambasted Wu Pei-fu though not quite in the same language as Zhang had done... though he had suggested that Wu had been incompetent, corrupt and mismanaged army resources. A circular telegrams went it was more or less par for the course.

What he had done beyond that was to approach the American Legation in Tietsin regarding a conference. His next round of telegrams had been slightly more conciliatory than the naming and shaming but called on an end to the fighting which he had begun describing as a civil war and that negotiations needed to be taken up to 'restore the nation'.

It wasn't the rhetoric... that wasn't likely to work given that Feng had been a high ranking member if apparently a very disaffected one within the Zhili clique. Whatever that rhetoric was worth to people on the streets the betrayal stained credibility... it was more so that he'd approached the legation to facilitate discussions publicly even as the fighting took on a new pace in the environs of the Great Wall.

Had Feng done this earlier the Anhui clique might have been in a better position todo something more. Sun's Northern Expedition as well. As it was the young marshal had now committed his tanks for a breakout, and along with Zhang Zongcheng, no relation, with his own force cavalry to penetrate the lines Feng had abandoned the day before and were now wreaking bloody havoc in the rear end with the support of Marshal Zhang's air force as the defensive forces came apart at the seams.

Wu was still in the field. Still had an estimated two hundred thousand troops give ortake despite the breakthrough and reported defections and was still largely fighting in ground that favored a defender. In theory if Wucould reassert discipline to the army then Zhang had not actually won, whatever the Japanese attache in Manchuria was claiming about the state of Zhili morale as he and the Italian attache rode along with the young marshal through the gap.

On the other hand the consensus here was that morale problem certainly wasn't helping. Wu had waited too long to mobilize. On an even longer term scale Zhili had not organized engaged in reforms to structure their units more effectively... even though according to reports Fengtian hadn't been perfect there... they could have pursued some kind of modernization. They could have modernized in other ways, and expanded procurement and training.

There were also the Zhili armies in Zhejiang, and Kiangsu, around the river delta. Could that prolong the conflict certainly did it seem likely too...no if only because Peking had fallen and the existing financial problems of the Zhili clique were now pronounced by no longer holding the capital.
Shan leaned over, "I've ordered the Heavy Combat Engineers to reinforce the works," Nothing too serious, more timber and more barbed wire, but he slid a sketch across, ;"We could take and replace the observation posts." A ton of steel reinforcing bars here, and thirty odd cubic feet of concrete would could be thrown up to replace the temporary ones." These would be fast enough and provide men on the hill protected firing positions for their machine guns." These sorts of things would have been nothing significant in the south along the border with Szechwan, they'd never been necessary in the north... but they would otherwise look like little more than border checkpoints compared to more significant fortifications
--
Notes: This concludes 1924, fighting between Fengtian versus Zhili and with other factions attacking the Zhili clique continuing into November when Xian would go to the polls. We get a look at the observer reports of the breakthrough made possible by Feng's defection and his moving back to the capital to launch his coup so the Guominjun doesn't exist yet (officially), and Duan Qirui is not yet PM again but that is what happens at the end of the year.

The other thing besides the betrayal is that Feng would expel Puyi, and Zhang Tsolinwould go on to historically move Puyi to Tietsin, and in the longer term Puyi would eventually go to Manchuria as a figurehead monarch,which we will get to later on.

Feng's coup, Zhang Tsolin, Duan coming back basically leads to Xian espousing its independent from the idea of a unified China this isn't actually amajor issue until after Sun's death, and Chiang talking about his intention to March North. I have so much material I'm going to have to find the time to reread and work on, lovely.

But anyway,Zhang the young Marshal (and yeah there are a lot of Suns, and Zhangsacross north and south china in different armies, and even inManchuria very very few of them are rleated to the point that thenewspapers made jokes about it.) gets to do his combined arms thing,Zongcheng gets mentioned we will hear more of his division and corplater especially as we talk about Manchuria and Mongolia both in '25where we will be dealing with Xian's increasing efforts abroad ininternational trade and infrastructure

 

[Imperator Pax]

Early May 1925
Newspapers talked mostly of Europe... or of New York, or Chicago or the Californian ports. The Cadre international dealings were grounded in the flow of goods, and capital. It was the truth, they had started as businessmen. Needing engines, and boilers, and things to build locomotive works and so on as they had pushed beyond laying the rails as the last years of the old dynasty had crept up.

The engines rumbled, but these were the sorts of trains that in that time before the European war he had told his father were the future. The diesel engines were more fuel efficient much as with ships at sea it was a matter of fuel... and less down time for maintenance.

The New Linewould run from Xian to the Lake District station through the corridor. Then they would stretch it further west into Xinjiang. Cullen outside down on the yard was monkeying about. Him, and half a dozen other men in black examining the distinct metal boxes that had been fabricated for the run. This was more than just a trial run of the new diesel electric engines going to Qinghai it was a proof of new shipping methods. The secure containers were filled with palletized goods and at rail depot at the end of the terminal there would be cranes and skid lifters waiting to move goods into the yard to be divided up.

Percy came back to regarded the map with typical British skepticism for the 'why' of it. It had been something his maternal grandfather had complained of and that his father had done as well, when he'd been a boy that the British were slack about replacing things just because they weren't broken. They didn't keep up with the technology. "I accept its probably safe," Percy remarked to the 'goods', the new boxes were steel and would not splinter like the wood carriages of old, but that had been a transition made much earlier, "Certainly it should deter the criminal element, and less larceny is nice."

But it was obvious from his tone that he was skeptical of it from the tone.

Percy had remarked once, some years earlier, that when he'd first come over to 'the China Station' he'd been forewarned about the Old Buddha, and also the lack of reach she had. That the governors of the provinces were loyal less to the empire and more to their own pockets, greed and such, and about their armies.

Crates of repeating rifles had the potential to make a man a fair profit on their cost to acquire and transport from America... or England, or Germany... Italy or Belgium. That had been quite true then... and despite the end of the war in Europe John Jordan's fool embargo had driven the price of rifles embarrassingly high in terms of profit despite the difficulty the legation had in enforcing the stupid piece of paper... and the truth was...

they hadn't done a very good job of it. The Merchant Corps gun shipment from a british firm laden with rifles and machine guns aboard a british ship had caused a stir in the legation. More for the flagrant nature of the violation. That flagrancy had prompted the US to complain because the Legation did support the spirit of the embargo, whether it was legally enforceable or not.

More than that, the British firm had protested. They had plenty of evidence that 'everyone' else was doing it. The caracano rifle of Italy was popular in the south. Japan sold commercially no shortage of Arisaka rifles through two or three Tokyo firms into North and South. Belgium and the United States through commercial giants and surplus dealers provided access across south China in particular evading the same customs houses, the same way the taipans had done for a century.

And the problem with the embargo was that it artificially forced up the cost of guns, which meant if a rival clique in the south was buying guns you had to buy guns. In the north, with Manchuria especially that wasn't necessarily the case not with domestic industry having started to step in during the European war and building out from there. Xian well removed from the coast was in a similar economic position...more so now that the rail line which connected Kashgar through Kabul to the British province of Sindh, and the center of wheat export at Karachi. That was important, since it provided Northern China, and also Kirghiz access to an export market and shipping firms in both directions. Karachi was the outlet to help offset grain prices elevated as a result of persistent drought conditions.

The other factor of course was how even with the 'old stalwarts' of locomotive engines, including the likes of the Mikado which the Cadre deploy along the line, the lines were much easier to finance the construction of than during Morgan and Harriman's day. "This would have been a great help during the war I admit."

"These plans were started during the war." He replied, and in all honesty someone had probably dreamed of them in the 1880s. Kabul had had its little arsenal and railway built then, but back then the capital hadn't been available. Without the war in Europe, the Cadre would never have considered the Silk Road trunk line, but the Trans-siberian severed made it more imperative. A rail line across the steppe and the ancient trade network made sense with the Bolsheviks holding the great majority of the old Russian Empire. "Kirghiz," The steppe country, "Is recovering," More than just recovery but the white / cossack government in power had for the lastthree years been working to make the transition from a civil war state to actually governing an independent nation state instead of a provincial frontier holding. "Trade being able to reach a portand trade overland makes for stability," especially without tsarist trade and industrial policies; or its habit of internal feuding. He didn't actually say the latter out loud... if he said it to Percy it'd get back to the foreign office.

"And," A pause, "In the longer term?"

"And longer term the French peace has all but assured there will be another war. Maybe we have the line finished out to reach Constantinople," and if not, "we will be well positioned to move goods to the existing ports served by the line."

Percy grimaced at the talk of war, and decided to change the subject, and probably, ultimately to the real issue at hand, "What do you make of the unrest in Shanghai?"

The truth was the labor unrest would have been nothing to write home about, except that it came on the heels of everything that had played out last year, "Honestly I keep forgetting the southern doctor has passed," Two months earlier, "I keep expecting the papers from Shanghai to have some editorial by Sun to run. Sun would have and I expect Wang to endorse any follow on strike, but again them starting it has never been the problem." Just ride the coattails of what other men did, that wasn't to say they were do nothings, but Sun had always been the bag man collecting the money to do things never the man actually putting things into motion... "Wang is too busy arguing with the Shanghai clique, and with Liao in Canton."

Canton was far far too southernly for the Cadre to concern itself with policy wise. Wuhan where Wang's power base lay was a problem... but he was also less tangled up with the green gang as well which you couldn't say about the Shanghai clique of the KMT... as any of Cullen's officers including those down in the yard would attest too.

No most likely the KMT leadership would endorse action after it happened... and it made sense. Sun dying meant they needed something to stand out to the southern public. Shanghai striking would give them something to put in the papers... and the Bund was doing nothing to aemorliate the situation. "Liao is just adding gas to the fire."

Allen shrugged, "The californian," Liao, "I think has latched onto Feng's adopted religion as an almost personal offense." He had after all gone to a British school, Liao did not seem anti western education... but Feng wore his religion on his sleeve, and the general was a popular target following the coup d'etat he'd run against Cao Kun... "But I'll concede missionaries are known to cause their share of the problems, and Liao is capitalizing on other grievances, but he's not responsible for the labor disputes." His time in Canton, and as civil governor there did suggest on where he stood when it came to strikes... that business with the merchants corp last year.

Percy meandered around the table, around the latest issued railway map of Asia where the British Empire of King George sat in its customary pink. That belied the condition of George's Empire for while it had grown on the map it was stretched thin on the ground. Where a decade ago this same map would have shown the trans siberian... that was gone now. In its place was its soviet terminus in Western Siberia. The eastern half of the old system from Irkutsk to the pacific and Manchuria now painted in a pink hue of Japan.

This map had been printed to reflect the changes after Feng's coup. Manchuria and Mongolia were printed in that pink, and Xian and the Cadre expanse stood out in a vermillion red, which was probably a poor choice as much as painting Japan in a pink that might be confused for Britain. The bolsheviks... because well Allen assumed... green for its association with bandits in the public consciousness. Then again maps before the European war had painted the Tsar's empire in green. Kirghiz was shaded an oft white.

The map labelled the railways. The length of the main trunk, and major spurs had their lengths in parentheses. It circled where major lines intersected. The eastern siberian linked only to Xian through Peking. Southern China was a barren expanse with few lines, and almost a dozen divided states recognized mostly those south of the river.

"The world as your house of commons sees it." Percy observed. "A China divided. Not one China, but several."

Allen stirred to make some defense of the position, "It is the fact on the ground, but the map is officially that of the railways of Asia. Japan, or her corporations, operates supplies," by domestic manufacture or procurement, "the locomotives and other accoutrements of the lines. I cannot help that the South has never managed to sustain a railroad operation long enough for it to become profitable and self sustaining."

"Which is of course a by product that China's disunity, and the provinces in the south are unruly." Percy answered.

--
Notes: We enter the political mess that is China 1925 after Sun Yat-sen's death and in particular the commentary here being that Xian's Lower House, the house of representatives, would rather recognize Manchuria / Japan holding Peking than Feng. By this point the newly elected House has been sat they've been in office since March roughly along the same time frame as Sun's death in Peking.

The map is also a political statement by the committee of the lower house that authorized it. Its not just color coordination, UK/JPN were historically shaded that same pink, the US is painted gold, or gray depending on the political conditions depending on the map maker. Xian is a vermillion red because the author is making a political statement about that color, but that same statement could be made by painting Xian as gold on the map. [and this is something that drafting wise, map colors do show up with the British and Japanese Empires being in the same colors, and Xian being in similar though distinct colors.] Indeed later even though that red is still used we will see Xian publications explicitly associating a gold coloring over the red for political reasons.

A couple other things. Constantinople doesn't become Istanbul until 1930 legally thats part of Ataturk's reforms to use the vernacular names of Turkish cities, Istanbul was in common use but international mail was still being marked Constantinople . Japan has adopted Metric (IIRC 1922) at this point but is still also using its classic Imperial system, which is basically identical to the US Imperial System (in terms of inches and feet) which is coincidental / convergent evolution but this meant that Japanese engineers in this period had little issue converting to US units of length, because there was functionally no difference. So Japanese railway engineers or artillery (because caliber is traditionally in inches) went its the same thing (this actually continued during the occupation of Japan where the old system continued to exist in traditional crafts like carpentry (and to a limited extent continues today though metric has superseded it finally). Why this is relevant is because well really its the use of lengths by the railway system. Mikado are 2-8-2 locomotives and have been mentioned previously so I figured i'd bring up the engineering side of it.

 

[Imperator Pax]

May 1925
As was typical of basically every morning for the past decade there were stacks of papers overflowing across the desk. They'd gotten to the point where they just came packaged up in what amounted to a crate. Shanghai was shook, and their quaking was most visible in the hand wringing of editorials about the situation. This was no longer about Wu's flight... that had been in the paper's last year, and Feng's betrayal was something that ... the new popular word was Junfa.

The electorate had been poised even without the 2nd​ war between Zhili and Fengtian to be nonplussed towards Peking... but Zhang going through with it had done Manchuria no favors with either the people, or the press.

And of course there was the legation. The legation commander, General Connor, had written to the state department more than once. That the man was preferential to Zhang had been true before the war. That he and the little marshal were chummy boded well for potential international recognition except that Schurman had been flat footed by the whole conflict. Someone of that hd been willful blindness that the fighting had the potential to be serious.

The consequence of a new cycle beginning of a Jiazi year, "Such things happen," Jun remarked.

Allen noddedwatching as she folded the paper past the report of the news from the lower house's committee vote, "From what I understand Connor was told the same by Zhang," the old marshal, "last August." Which had been something Connor had included in his report... that Schurman had not taken seriously at the time.

That wasn't tosay that the minister was bad at his job... he just hadn't been prepared for this. Schurman was still arguably a better legation head than Reinsch, "The minister, I think, hoped too much that Duan Qirui returning to his former post would bring stability in the new year. Perhaps that tax reform might finally be on the table." That would have been very optimistic given the state of the Federal Government's finances... it didn't matter how much the reforms were needed if there was no political capital to actually make them stick.

They sat there quietly for a moment. "Feng's friendship with the northern bandits," The Bolsheviks, "disturbs most." Feng was an odd duck all around. Politically there were talking points with Marx and Lenin he agreed with, there were things from Germany from before the war he agreed with... and then on the other he hewed hard into evangelical Protestantism with great flamboyancy. "He reminds me too much of the southern rebels." In this she meant the Taiping... and Allen found he could see it... and maybe that was it.

"Part of the reason we've kept the army at readiness."

Admittedly once Feng had been comfortable in Peking and taken stock of things, and run Wu off of course he'd become lot less bellicose. Unlike with Zhang Xun's man where there had been sweep into Baoding to secure the city... it had been less than that. There had been troops but Feng had sent some graduates of the school in with a small detachment and basically changed the locks on the door. Perhaps that had been all the troops he could spare given he had needed troops to hold the capital and to march south perhaps not... but it neatly avoided signaling an intent to keep heading south as well.

Allen had remained at the front through November when it had been dry and cool... but not properly cold. The recent conflict had reiterated a number of points of the European war. Reports from Shanghai had warned that there trenches had flooded, and bayonet efforts had failed to breach strong machine gun positions. Both sides Zhili and the emaciated corpse of the Anhui had had plenty of those... they had also brought aircraft and the stokes mortar.

IN the north of course it had been even more pronounced with more of everything. The young marshal with his tanks and his foreign observers riding along in the front. Feng removing himself to the capital had left a noticeable gap in the Zhili lines which had been exploited and broken through ... and by Feng had been launching his coup at the same time. The coup hadn't settled matters instantly... the fighting had kept on but it had prevented Wu from cementing this into a war along the lines of the trenches in France.

Still now it looked like Feng's ambition was more than his grasp. He had certainly proven pivotal in allowing the war to wrap itself neatly... but the political shift, and the cost incurred by the fighting was another mountain to summit. Maybe that was also why they had quickly comeback to inviting Duan Qirui to come along. IN hopes he might manage some kind of negotiated tax modernization, if only in the northern provinces to service the debt.

In contrast to Percy Schurman had made vastly less fuss over the railway map's painting of the situation in China. He seemed to tolerate or better understand Yunnan and Manchuria as unique circumstances even if the official position of all powers involved remained that of a united China... even if it did seem likely that Duan and Feng, "I think that makes it likely they'll squabble." He remarked, and Zhang having put one over on Wu was probably was enough to mollify him for the time being.

"That he forced them to flee to Japan," Or at least some of the Zhili clique to do so, "Has salved his pride from last time, "But he dreams I think the dreams of the Manchu, to drive down and make himself lord of all... and however wealthy manchuria has made itself, it is not so wealthy as that." Manchuria was prosperous but it was not capable of doing what Yuan Shikai could not, Zhang's reforms had not made the gap that wide between the north and the southern provinces... and did nothing to change the situation with railways in the south.

But he had but a quarter of a million men in the field, and Duan's remnant Anfu could not expect to put real military force to match that... and "the Guominjun, as Feng calls it, is not up to fighting Manchuria," and that would have been true even without the border gore as Waite called it... and the delineation of the border just before the election had also sent a message to people on both sides. "Feng I think means to bring up the Franc, and the boxer indemnity," Which was only part of why the Zhili treasury had been in arrears but that crisis still lingered. "I don't like this Sino-French bank talk."

"Because it seems likely that Feng will attempt to do as Duan did?" She asked reaching for his tea cup.

It was what it felt like, "The situation with the Franc last year was a problem. I think France is angling for more influence in Peking, and see Feng as a way to have that leverage." That had probably not been the original plan but had developed over the last six months as things had unfolded... and if Feng, or Duan for that matter used a french bank to buy french weapons then France benefitted and the situation continued. "I would suspect France will sell planes they neatly circumvent John Jordan's embargo and France," despite having a problem with manufacturing new tanks at scale, "Has no trouble with putting planes out to buyers."


--
Notes: T:hisborrows from material that was actually originally set in November of 24 and is being repackaged since I had to redo stuff as a result of last year. The next update will also follow on with content originally from the November 1924 content before we move into material that was originally for 1925. I need to review some stuff post war for France, but there is a large distinction between France's ability in aircraft, and automobiles versus tanks despite again, France had good ideas the issue does seem to be production and also political support for the programs (which similar story with Italy, but yes France wants a Navy but that doesn't appear to be the issue or at least not the largest issue) Feng appears to have bought French planes, but I suspect that their delivery was based on previous Zhili clique orders (Yuan, Duan, Cao all had purchased French planes in Yuan's case before WW1) or this could have been a continuation of those purchases. They don't seem to have done him much good in the following conflict at a strategic level

 

[Imperator Pax]

May 1925
The cadre had not always agreed with Cao Kun... but the reality was that long ties had made him a known factor. In the way the Beiyang had operated even going back to when Yuan Shikai had been precedent Cao Kun had been a steady fixture. He had opposed the senseless haying off into the south on attempts to force things that couldn't be forced... not by arms not with China's treasury the way it was, and not without the roads and canals actually being capable of supporting modern troops.

That had meant, when the news had come stealing in over the wires that there had been a palpable disgust to the coup in Peking. That had shown when the electorate had gone to the polls. Whatever complaints people had had about Cao Kun he had enjoy hed at least some recognition in western china's provincial assemblies of legitimacy that Feng decidedly lacked.

The new or revitalized Sino French Bank promised Feng a potential line of credit to keep the government running or at least help offset the costs. Bringing Duan Qirui back to mediate, what had been decided on the end of last year, was about steadying the ship... and trying to do something about the finances more broadly.

"Manchuria prepared, and fought well..." The major took a breath, "But I would almost say the conflict opened too soon. That Zhang would been better suited to wait. On the other hand, I conclude that economics and limits to money, on supplies at hand prevented any plans for a protracted conflict of general mobilization."

"You think Zhang doesn't have the resources to hold things together?"

"If there were any issues with the Fengtian Army it was the lack of discipline in certain brigades... the young marshal had the best troops," And not surprisingly the best equipment, "Given another year those troops might have been better prepared... but the army still isn't enough to do what Yuan Shikai could not with the army he had." An army quite a bit larger, and one that Yuan had been trying to downsize to avoid beggaring the country. "Zhang is insistent on modernizing the army, and has built railways in the north... but has not addressed pushing those programs south of the great wall in any meaningful fashion."

Allen nodded to the Civil Affairs Officer to continue, and looked down at the papers. "North China has railways, it was the failure to build in Honan that sparked things off for Yuan Shikai," He was already loathing the necessity of a visit to the legations. Xian's lower house had drafted a demand that the western provinces delegates to the National Assembly return. More to the point they had pushed a call for revisions on as they phrased it 'National Defense' to expand the army, but that hadn't gone terribly far before being embroiled in highly opinion at arguments inside the lower house about how that should be shaped. "Yan is going to recommend to the House of Representatives we expand the National Guard's allotment of Infantry Divisions."

"Five, sir?" There was a hopeful tone.

"Two to begin with," But five was not in the longer term unreasonable. "Fifty thousand men to the strength, and as an interim new Infantry brigades," Right now the cadre abroad, including the European mission and the representatives from the MAK were in Europe... countries like Czechoslovakia, Finland, Poland, even the new Turkish Republic any of the countries really that might be in the way of bolshevik aggression who might benefit from modern arms and equipment that could be provided. They were also of course looking at what everyone else was doing in the half time, "Modern rifles, mortars, machine guns." And without the coup in Peking this would have been less center stage than talking about compulsory education, but here they were. "I'm going to take the train to visit Schurman in a few days," Asking for, "State commitments for liaisons with agricultural colleges, and to reiterate to him that Japan only pushed its 6 year requirement," For primary education, "in 1907."

"Will that work?"

"It needs to be done anyway," Allen replied, "But yes I imagine, the Minister will be happy to have something to write home about that doesn't involve troop numbers. Connors had already relayed that we'll be at current readiness through our summer drill," The idea being that no one would be surprised by the continuation... that was the advantage of things how they sat.

Still this was not the legation of John Jordan and Reinsch... which came with both good and bad changes all around. "There," There was a pause, and the major shuffled past an IG report, which he obviously didn't deem pressing, "Here, Zhang Tsolin has expressed interest in self loading rifles, again. This is not new but that he has asked the Arsenal at Irkutsk for a sample of their version of Federov."

"Iseburo sent me one," It was still absurdly mechanically complex but they'd done both some work on the metallurgy, the magazines, "They took lessons from the arisaka on the stock. Or maybe they took those lessons from our Mausers," Given the new rifle also had a kiln fired stock, "which we borrowed from Arisaka." The point was the same, that it was a more robust stock and easier to manufacture. "Do you need it for the review?"

"I would like to."

"You'll have to get it from Griswold, I'll write you a pass. Zhang will probably angle for a couple hundred of them but Iseburo isn't likely to give him that many." Not quickly anyway, "Are they intended for a certain unit?"

"I think," And the major was speculating, "they are intended to replace weapons with Zhang Zhongchen."

"Thats right he has units of Whites," and lots of Arisaka to begin with, "and him and Ungern get on pretty well." Allen shook his head at that odd mix, but up north past the wall, into Manchuria and Mongolia proper things well, the new railways made it easier to move material... the truth was Ungern employed so much horseflesh he could move his army quite quickly, "Zhang will potentially be looking at Europe," That was just a continuous thing, "most of that has been bigger stuff since he settled on his rifle," Which Ungern had transitioned to, and which Iseburo at the Lake produced for nominally commercial reasons and used as a 'temporary' or 'substitute' rifle for units in Siberia when he didn't have enough Arisaka. "Something else?"

"Only that Zhang's war against Zhili demonstrates the difficulty of a peer conflict... if the bolsheviks were to attack, our greatest impediment would be coordinating with so many of our neighbors against the bandits. Siberia, Mongolia, Kirghiz... however fast the English might respond..."

... "We intentionally destroyed or made as difficult as possible for crossing into Kirghiz and," Iseburo had done the same, "Siberia. The rail link up to the bolshevik's end of the trans siberian was torn up... and from was in pretty poor condition to begin with." That had been reiterated by the American Rail Commission report as well, which had probably the most accurate number of engines and rolling stock that the Transsiberian had had at the time, "There is more we could do to be ready, but central asia can at least, now has a direct rail link to Karachi, and that means an extra incentive for the British to allow goods to pass through." That was how the war planning was structured that while there would be differences there were more than a million troops that theoretically cordoned the old Russian far east across the various states keeping the Bolsheviks from the likes of India, and eastern Siberia and thus the pacific.
--
Notes: Againthis is material that was originally late 1924 following the coup, but basically touches on whats going outside of China, while also dealing with Manchuria and the various interwar efforts to modernize. That was one of Zhang's big priorities even though he himself wasn't highly educated he pushed and supported pretty expansive civilian and military reforms, but ended up with the chronic eyes bigger than stomach problem.

Federov's rifle chambers the Japanese 6.5, and honestly the best thing you probably do magazine wise would probably be what was tried with Enfield and then mass produce those. Japanese doctrine especially for special purpose troops is not gonna care that they're a pain to reload you're being issued an automatic rifle and told to go assault an enemy position (the british reasons for not adopting that design are not applicable here). However this does not address that, machining the Federov's action... is very machine hour intensive. Its fine during peace time and for specialty elite troops... and it doesn't require the Diet to approve anything special production (the army and navy both were willing to special order things but not replace the standard kit wholesale) the fact it actually uses 'normal ammunition' is actually a plus for it even if it cost per unit would make the old guard in the army scream bloody murder.

This is also when we get to it, one of the reasons the bolsheviks don't make a serious effort to reconquer siberia. Its not worth it versus what it would cost and leave them strategically vulnerable for. Iseburo is gonna have soviet border skirmishes, and Iseburo... and later Takagi after have their response being machine guns and artillery but not over extension. That the Siberian Army is a more disciplined and restrained army than the Kwantung is precisely because Iseburo is more politically connected to the system and has significantly more bureaucratic administrative clout (Again the Kwantung army administration ran into the problem of outgrowing its own mission statement and never being restructured to address its chronic issues). This also pushes out Japan's manufacturing of things like light trucks and the engines for them in order to make this viable even if that does irk the army because of fuel needs, but we will get to that solution afterwards.

 

[Imperator Pax]

Late May 1925
The map split Siberia with the river. It was a nice clean way to do it, as likely humans had divided territory long before there had been maps. It looked nice on paper... in practice it divided between steppe and highlands of west and east. That clean delineation was how the British liked it

... and Iseburo had chased the reds across the river and no further after the battle at the lake. The western Siberian plain ran south until it abutted the division of the steppe between Russian Siberia and the Kazakh governate during the Tsarist times.

Duan Qirui's support for the map was unsurprising, and had been probably selected as the sort of fig leaf compromise issue by the legations to champion to give him some thing to parade about. Admittedly, Duan Qirui's political wrangling of the votes could have been self serving, or a genuine attempt to weld things back together... but damned if it mattered now. It looked transparent, because he'd gone and thrown both the constitutions of China out in December. So thereby his attempt to put the whole country on the same foot in terms of defined international borders was too little of importance.

"Duan is attempting to use this to avoid Curzon's suggestion," From a couple years earlier to negotiate with individual provinces, "of talks. That these are the borders and that there is one China, and all talks need to go through Peking."

"Curzon saying provinces is where the incoming," The new class, they were already seated, "Congress has an issue." And so did the legation since the official byline had always been One China and not to recognize say Canton, or Yunnan as breakaways. Duan's map showed a unified China ... admittedly one including Monogolia in the north down to Yunnan in the south.

"How will they vote?"

"Polling by the whip is pretty conclusive." Dawes replied to Waite's question... the other man grimaced at his tone, at the smug declaration. "That we should continue as it is."

"Well what does that mean in practice?" Waite grunted, "Are we or aren't we recognizing Duan?"

"The official consensus is that he has returned as head of the Beiyang fraternity." Which was explicitly not the same as saying he was president of China, or Prime Minister. "It outlines that the congress's view is that we should support railway measures to run trains west," That support for the hub at Kabul, into the Sha's port on the Persian gulf and the line into British India where wheat could be imported."That we support the carrying trade in both directions. "Which meant operating the line as a whole not simply as a way to import goods into western china bypassing the need for a pacific ports. "They even charitably cited McKinder on continental powers." The former parliamentarian was still kept on with questions by the Foreign Office and served to support the primarily western notion of Poland and others curtailing any bolshevik 'bridging expeditions' that might be dreamt up by any of Lenin's successors... but it wasn't to say he didn't have considerations regarding the steppe or how India and china both might effect the politics of the continent and globe.

Waite grimaced, "However much certain among our ranks, Powell included," He added, "The young Turkish republic is not the Empire of the Pashas. I do not believe that we necessarily have the leverage or sway to shift them from their relations with the Bolsheviks even with Lenin dead." that Lenin had lingered on after the first stroke had been a source of grumbling to begin with.

It was the sort of thing that didn't sit well with some of the cadre. Waite's position amounted to not counting the chickens before they hatched. Allen waded in to stop an argument wasn't germane to the current debate, "Will the situation in Shanghai change the matter with the appropriations bill?

"Probably not."

"No."

Both men agreed, which suggested the bill would come out of committee and go to the floor sometime in June or early July.

"Good." Allen replied. "The french, and the international quarter are wringing their hands over the strike resuming over this shooting." Admittedly with the French tendency to shelter the communists in Shanghai it was a bit ridiculous that they were the ones complaining about the possibility of a strike... that was in contrast to Shidehara ... the Japanese Foreign Minister... quietly signaling he preferred a strategy reapproachment over the whole affair. "Opinions?"

"The international quarter is going to dig its heels in. The Legation," In Tietsin, "back home in Washington doesn't matter. The bund is of the opinion any compromise solution will just encourage them...and lets be honest they're of the opinion it will erode their special position. If Shanghai has to be treated like Tietsin it changes the whole game." Cole remarked, "But if concessions are made it would be a pretty significant success for Duan to have pulled off even if he didn't actually do much... that would give him capital to work with, which would bolster arguments to one china in the legation proper." He paused, "Shidehara's public safety law isn't all the different from our own... but Duan doesn't have the juice for that, and as the Bund notes there is no national police for all of China, which admittedly is just a rehashing of that debacle that followed the train fiasco."

Dawes nodded, "Passing that sort of law though would go a ways to reassuring the gentry," Respectable land owners, and farmers tended to vote for law and order platforms, and that had been true in 1913 when Jiaoren had been shot, but it needed to be balanced by other practices, "Shanghai already pays a decent wage, admittedly thats relative to the country side... and if it came to it they could bring in scabs, but they don't seem to want to do that either."

"Thats a small mercy." Waite grunted. "Suppose the strike starts up again, the lower house passes the bill as is, and makes the request."

"We consider, we put it forward during the summer conference, and we publicly circulate staff commentary simple as that." Dawes answered, "That experimental tank unit that they want, we ask for input from the Staff officers what that should be, and if nothing else we put something together using the renaults as a practice unit, and use armored cars. They can stand in, until we actually have enough commentary to develop what a tank should be."

This was the Young Marshal's fault. His Fiats in particular were used in the Italian fashion and had moved quickly and acted as mobile pillboxes... it validated that part of the strategy. However the issue was that Xian's armored cars, wheeled as they were, with or without turrets provided a bit more mobility and carried comparable firepower to the Italian version of the Renault that Zhang had employed quite successfully and put rather forward in the papers.

Dawes and the artillery in general had put forward that a tank needed to be self propelled, rather obviously, well armed, protected, and capable of supporting a mobile force. The supporting role was generally interpretted to mean supporting either the cavalry units or rifle units but functionally dismounted men from elite formations who would be able to coordinate with such a specialist equipment. "The distinction," Griswold remarked, "Is that it does not carry dismounts."

"No I want something larger." Dawes remarked. "And standard." He iterated. "We need something we will need something with typical cased ammo that we have in large volume. The autocannons are good, but that is procurement bottleneck as it stands. We converted our Renaults to run the 1PDRbut now we have autocannon wheeled carriers that perform superior to that weapon."

"That was always an interim solution with the engine in the Renault being what it is." Griswold commented reiterating the points from previously, "You're not going to like it, but Zhang is already talking to Vickers I think we should do the same and try and push them on this medium tank concept. Does it" He looked at Dawes, "It won't satisfy that list of yours, but it would give us an option to try and practice with, without overstretching my engineers on the renaults we have."

--
Notes: we're back to actual originally 1925 content, and with it the increase in the body politic of pushing for independence over autonomy inside Xian's lower house, and military expansion plus basically being peripheral to European events. Thats one of the things here. The Great Depression is ultimately a by product of WW1 and of the fiscal policies of the war undertaken by the US both at home, and what they engaged in abroad (this is partly why people quip the US never imports a recession).

The mess of European politics post war in also highly insular, prior to WW1, the continent was the most economically connected it had ever been or ever would be until the EU arrived. (such that many people sincerely believed economic ties would prevent war all together, and indeed it did bankrupt basically everyone) So Mussolini is in power, France is deeply unpopular in the US and UK for protectionism (and this will eventually lead to Smoot Hawley in the long run), and the UK is committed to its ten year rule, which will last into the late thirties in practice.

But here, two things are happening one its right before May 30th, and two the lower house and the cadre compromise position just set the stage for the additions of of 11th and 12th Divisions to begin the process of standing up once the bills ratify marking Xian's expansion of the division cap, and setting the stage for its further expansion after the Northern Expedition gets under way, but this expansion is directly in response to events in North China.