Vote Thread for Ack's Omake Corner

[X] Security! - 6
[X] I, Panacea - 5
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 4
[X] Confrontation II - 3
[X] Wyvern - 2
[X] Trump Card - 1

I have this right wrong because I forgot an exclamation point and ready for as soon as the vote results are posted. Aaand here we go. Finally here when it's fresh, for the first time in a while.

I don't read War Games since I don't know the series, but I appreciate it in theory since that's the best kind of crossover.

 

[X] Wyvern - 6
[X] I, Panacea - 5
[X] Trump Card - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Recoil - 2
[X] Security! - 1

 

[X] Alea Iacta Est - 6
[X] War Games - 5
[X] Wyvern - 4
[X] Nemesis - 3
[X] Hostage Situation - 2
[X] Trump Card - 1

 

You forgot the exclamation mark for Security!

Also, War Games has a sentient starship with capital ship killing weapons going up against Leviathan. That's just plain fun

 

[X] Security! - 6
[X] I, Panacea - 5
[X] NSW - 4
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 3
[X] Trump Card - 2
[X] Hostage Situation - 1

 

[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] Slippery Slope - 5
[X] Wyvern - 4
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 3
[X] Recoil - 2
[X] Trump Card - 1

 

[X] War Games - 6
[X] Security! - 5
[X] I, Panacea - 4
[X] Wyvern - 3
[X] One More Trigger - 2
[X] Trump Card - 1

 

[X] Junior Hero - 6
[X] Meet the Heberts - 5
[X] Confrontation II - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Wyvern - 2
[X] NSW - 1

 

Joe's Vote Trading Post is open, working for Really Bad End. Tag or quote, first come, first served, and equal votes.

[X] Really Bad End - 6
[X] Slippery Slope - 5 (Traded with gunghoun)
[X] MirrorVerse - 4 (Traded with Anaja)
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 3 (Traded with JKR)
[X] War Games - 2 (open for trade)
[X] All Alone - 1 (open for trade)
[] Confrontation II - 0
[] Recoil - 0
[] Wyvern - 0
[] One More Trigger - 0
[] Trump Card - 0

Done and done.

 

[X] Security! - 6
[X] I, Panacea - 5
[X] One More Trigger - 4
[X] Trump Card - 3
[X] War Games - 2
[X] Wyvern - 1

 

[X] All Alone - 6 (swapped for MirrorVerse with Anaja)
[X] MirrorVerse - 5 (swapped for All Alone with Snake/Eater)
[X] Slippery Slope - 4 (swapped for Confrontation II with Edale)
[X] War Games - 3 (swapped for Confrontation II with Subsider34)
[X] Confrontation II - 2
[X] Recoil - 1

 

[X] Security! - 6
[X] I, Panacea - 5
[X] Confrontation II - 4
[X] Recoil - 3
[X] One More Trigger - 2
[X] All Alone - 1

 

[X] Slippery Slope - 6
[X] Really Bad End - 5 (nobodez)
[X] Trump Card - 4
[X] MirrorVerse - 3 (Anaja)
[X] One More Trigger - 2
[X] Recoil - 1

Would you kindly put Slippery Slope in as number 5?

 

[X] NSW - 6
[X] Meet the Heberts - 5
[X] Danny & Taylor - 4
[X] Recoil - 3
[X] One More Trigger - 2
[X] Bait & Switch - 1

 

[X] MirrorVerse - 6
[X] All Alone - 5
[X] Really Bad End - 4
[X] Slippery Slope - 3
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 2

[X] Security! - 1

Willing to switch my - 1 vote in exchange for an equivalent vote for MirrorVerse. Just tag me, or quote this post.

Really Bad End in exchange for MirrorVerse?

 

[X] Confrontation II - 6
[X] Hostage Situation - 5
[X] NSW - 4
[X] Bait & Switch - 3
[X] Meet the Heberts - 2
[X] All Alone - 1

 

I added MirrorVerse as my 3, would appreciate Slippery Slope. Also, since I edited mine to Tag you, would you let me know if you got the alert? I'm not sure if it alerts on edits with a tag or only new posts.

 

Slippery Slope - 3 for MirrorVerse - 3. Done.

No, it didn't alert me to the tag in your edit.

 

[X] All Alone - 6
[X] Confrontation II - 5
[X] Wyvern - 4
[X] Hostage Situation - 3
[X] Security! - 2
[X] I, Panacea - 1

 

Done and done.

 

[] Marky's Angels - 13
[X] Trump Card - 6
[X] Hostage Situation - 5
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Wyvern - 2
[X] Recoil - 1
[] I, Panacea
[] Security!

 

[X] War Games - 6
[X] Junior Hero - 5
[X] Wyvern - 4 (Swapped for War Games with Mr. Tebbs)
[X] Confrontation II - 3 (Swapped for War Games with Angush)
[X] Recoil - 2
[X] I, Panacea - 1

 

[X] MirrorVerse - 6
[X] All Alone - 5
[X] War Games - 4
[X] Really Bad End - 3
[X] Slippery Slope - 2

The Ack Stock exchange and Vote Trading Post, sponsoring MirrorVerse. Just tag me, or quote this post.

 

[X] Slippery Slope - 6
[X] Wyvern - 5
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 4
[X] Hostage Situation - 3
[X] MirrorVerse - 2

Willing to trade any vote 5 or below for equivalent slippery slope vote.

Mirrorverse 5 for Slippery Slope 5?

 

[X] I, Panacea - 6
[X] Slippery Slope - 5
[X] Confrontation II - 4
[X] Security! - 3
[X] Hostage Situation - 2
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 1

Confrontation II/Slippery Slope -> Angush

 

Not if I have anything to say about it!

Though that's more or less right, with a few caveats.

War Games is all but certain to win Vote 83. Both models are predicting a win in the mid-1200s, around 150 above the competition. Security! is a little less secure in Vote 84; margin is still hovering around 30 votes, so a determined effort could push it back a spot. I, Panacea and MirrorVerse are also pretty spot-on for Votes 85 and 86; neither is particularly close save for the latter in Model A, and even then it's 40 votes -- not an easy difference to overcome.

After that, though, it's a couple of the top dogs back in action. Recoil will most likely take Vote 87 and Wyvern Vote 88, both by substantially safe margins in both models. Then we have a shift since my previous prediction. Vote 89 was previously slated for Really Bad End, but is now projected to go to NSW by a very close margin -- less than 10 votes in both models. This is not overly surprising; RBE's hold on Vote 89 was never that solid and has only eroded over the last few rounds.

Rest assured, fans of doom and gloom; Really Bad End has only been pushed back to Vote 90, which it is practically guaranteed to win by a huge margin. It's had this coming for a long time; RBE is currently the one fic out of all of Ack's stories that has gone the longest without winning a vote -- not since Vote 18, all the way back on March 27th, has it come out on top. The total votes required to win has more than doubled since then, from around 500 to more than 1,000, and it only seems likely to climb higher.

Anyway, after that we have recently-updated Alea Iacta Est coming back around for another pass in Vote 91; Model A has it winning by 110+ votes, Model B by 60+. Vote 92, however, they disagree on. Model A gives it to All Alone by 40-some votes, Model B is rooting for Danny & Taylor with a margin in the 20s. Another point of divergence that it will be interesting to see the result of.


After Vote 92, estimated rounds-to-win are:

Alea Iacta Est: 10-11
All Alone: 3 or 23
Bait & Switch: 24-25
Confrontation II: 4
Danny & Taylor: 5 or 33
Hostage Situation: 12-16
I, Panacea: 6
Junior Hero: 9-12
Meet the Heberts: 3
MirrorVerse: 17-19
NSW: 19-20
Nemesis: 16
One More Trigger: 10-11
Really Bad End: 43-47
Recoil: 6
Security!: 9
Slippery Slope: 10-12
Trump Card: 2
War Games: 7
Wyvern: 7

Again, this is counting from Vote 92, not the current vote.

Accuracy this round was back towards what I originally expected: Model B, the refined version, a little bit more accurate than Model A, the classic edition.

Model A was 97.87% accurate on average. Most accurate proportionally was Security! at 99.90%, while raw vote count was a tie between that and Nemesis, which were each exactly 1 off. Least accurate was Hostage Situation on both counts; it came in 18 votes ahead of predictions, only 83.33% accurate. Average difference between prediction and result was 6 votes.

Model B was 98.29% accurate overall. Most accurate in both categories was Alea Iacta Est, which came in exactly on-target at 100% accurate. Least accurate was, oddly enough, the exact same story as for Model B -- Hostage Situation -- and for the exact same amount, too: 18 votes off, 83.33% accuracy. Average difference was only 5 votes.


My own vote:
[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] NSW - 5
[X] War Games - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Security! - 2
[X] Recoil - 1

 

[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] NSW - 5
[X] Really Bad End - 4
[X] Hostage Situation - 3
[X] Confrontation II - 2
[X] Trump Card - 1

 

[X] NSW - 6
[X] Danny & Taylor - 5
[X] Meet the Heberts - 4
[X] Security! - 3
[X] I, Panacea - 2
[X] Slippery Slope - 1

 

[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] Danny & Taylor - 5
[X] Really Bad End - 4
[X] Trump Card - 3
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 2
[X] Wyvern - 1

 

[X] Recoil - 6
[X] Trump Card - 5
[X] Wyvern - 1
[X] One More Trigger - 4
[X] All Alone - 3
[X] Hostage Situation - 2