Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

[Shaper47]

And a reminder to anyone saying that we won't let Biedde go: Biedde can't heal in the Wake. Eventually bad luck will see him leave us for three turns.

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Just keep him under leash while Biedde is not around.

Now that just seems like a bad idea, putting the Grail voodoo on Fluttershy's beau. Unless you think she's not going to notice that kind of shift in him?

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Not unless she gets a lot more lore in her.

Cadence didn't notice anything afterall.

 

[Steady Gaze]

Spoiler: Copyedits for Turn 19 - Results, part 8

And even less creatures remember it.

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fewer ("creatures" is countable)

The sun that witnessed that dark past of ponykind is not the same that shines today.

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is not the same as the one that or is not the same sun that. (I don't think you can leave out what is the same, even if you can just say "the one" as a placeholder.)

And just like the distant ring of a bell that has already rusted into oblivion… just like the faded silhouette left on the ground, by a tree that has already fallen and died… an action that has not seen Equestria in a very, very long time is once again taking place.

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So, this sentence reads a bit weirdly to me, because an "action" isn't a physical thing, so it's hard to imagine it "seeing" even in a metaphorical sense. I would reverse it and say:

an action that has not been seen in Equestria

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EDIT: Thinking about this more, I remember other things getting the "metaphorical seeing" treatment, like "this dynasty saw the rise of gunpowder". I think it definitely works for anything that could be analogous to a time period.

But ultimately, even the most verbal of scholars knows (even if only in the privacy of their thoughts) that it is the Princesses who guarantee the continuity of Equestria.

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I don't know what you mean by verbal. A "verbal" person is a person capable of speaking or writing, and all scholars are. Perhaps you meant prolific (write more than most) or cerebral (smartest) or laconic (says very little)?

Alright… to be honest this isn't how I imagined the choices would be, but perhaps I was too optimistic. But actually, this doesn't even strike me as a fleeting opportunity. Why can't we have this confrontation at (another) time of our choosing where we disclose that we killed the Master? Is it something Edge-related? Does the Master's death have to be fresh?

4 Health

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Do you know where, if any place, we can see Comet Feet's stats? I see the Contacts and Names doesn't have that info, but I guess we can look at the battle with Shining Armor?

 

[jason1stlegion]

Knew this was a waste of an action.

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At least he won't end up killing us anymore, if we resolve this with something other than Status Quo? Alt!Stormy definitely confirmed that he otherwise would.

 

[Earth-Destroyer]

At least he won't end up killing us anymore, if we resolve this with something other than Status Quo? Alt!Stormy definitely confirmed that he otherwise would.

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He not an idiot Its certainly death to fight Velvet with so many names around.

 

[Greymere]

Do you know where, if any place, we can see Comet Feet's stats? I see the Contacts and Names doesn't have that info, but I guess we can look at the battle with Shining Armor?

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Basically just the Shining Armor fight, yeah.

 

[Greymere]

Knew this was a waste of an action.

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If you, for some reason, want to choose status quo, then yeah I guess. But there is no real reason for us to pick status quo when compromise is right there and is... basically an objective upgrade to the current relationship. Because let's be honest, we weren't going to really be doing anything Lore-related w/ Fluttershy anyway. The only reason we ever befriended her was to keep Comet off the "Enemies" list, and compromise gets us Comet actions without building resentment.

 

[Limabot]

@OurLadyOfWires I know you're going to be on break for the rest of the week, but what exactly is the difference between Conscription and Negotiation? Are they just the same outcome with just a chance of loosing for the latter, or will be able to vote on what specifically we want out of Comet?

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

Just keep him under leash while Biedde is not around.

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I'm not sure how that works when his relation to us instantly craters to Enemy when conditions are not meant.

 

[Solace2117]

He not an idiot Its certainly death to fight Velvet with so many names around.

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I don't think Comet is an idiot, but very much disagree he wouldn't eventually try to kill Velvet. We know from in one timeline he does and frankly the Status Quo seems to be him growing angrier the more Velvet involves Fluttershy in the Lores. There's a reason compromise stops his hatred towards Velvet from growing.

 

[Shaper47]

I'm not sure how that works when his relation to us instantly craters to Enemy when conditions are not meant.

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The rules are unclear.

Let's ask.

@OurLadyOfWires How would the leash work on Confidante Comet Feet for the Conscription option?

 

[Venerable Ro]

@OurLadyOfWires I know you're going to be on break for the rest of the week, but what exactly is the difference between Conscription and Negotiation? Are they just the same outcome with just a chance of loosing for the latter, or will be able to vote on what specifically we want out of Comet?

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Negotiation leans on Edge's focus on seeking Resolution, by fighting it out we'd settle the matter with finality and the winner would be the one with the stronger argument/claim. Basically there'd be no resentment because both parties would consider the matter done with.

Conscription on the other hand resolves nothing and forces obedience through artificial means, either Biedde's enforcement or an Influence that we can't naturally summon. I honestly suspect that Comet's Edge realization has taken the form of being able to summon A Rousing Air on his own terms, at the very least it's something we can't do. Anyway, since nothing is truly settled Comet would instead be an enemy-in-waiting, we'd essentially be setting up a reenactment of the Lionsmith's rebellion against The Colonel.

 

[Zxzx24]

You say all of that to elegant Mareinette, who is currently lounging next to you, and who had been patiently listening to your plight this whole time.

Mareinette, who is also being attended by your servants, is currently lying on the best sofa you have at your disposal. The one you had brought to this balcony at her own request, so she could generously grace you with her presence. Furthermore, at the mare's request, you have also provided her with a pair of opera glasses, an expensive set of hoof-held binoculars that are meant to be used by nobles from the box-seat of a theater.

She had been using them to look rather intently at the foals as they play in the party down below. But of course, nopony found anything strange in that because Mareinette can do no wrong.

And much, much more importantly, the mare turns her bony visage towards you as you beg for her favor. And after what seems to be like an eternity…



"[GRAIL]!"

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I admit it. I laughed. I wonder if you actually come up with her lines and we just never see them.

You are Jade Whistle, and you really think you shouldn't be here.

"I really think I shouldn't be here," you say out loud.

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Proud of you Jade

"But you… you really didn't have to do it? I-I mean… if I knew everypony would make such a fuss about it, I don't think I would have…" she trails off, sitting on the ground as she nervously scratches one of her forelegs. "I didn't even put that much effort, into my cutie mark. If I had known, I'd at least made something less lame or…"

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Ah teenagers

"I think I'll need Baldomare's help to get you down... just... just wait here..."

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Baldomare dying laughing

Probably not great, even with running a +40 Influence. We'd have to wound him three times, but he'd only have to wound us once.

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Our odds are actually so bad this should be considered a "lose on purpose" action.

Which might have several benefits. Enough that I will consider voting for it.

 

[jason1stlegion]

[] "I see you my enemy."
-Velvet Covers will use this opportunity to attempt to attain her personal Edge Sacrament.
-Velvet Covers and Comet Feet will fight to the death, without interruption.
-If she succeeds, Velvet Covers will do her best to hide this from Fluttershy. But it is impossible to guarantee she will not find out.

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No. Even if we somehow succeed, this is basically ruining our relationship with Fluttershy, and ruining Fluttershy herself.

[] Assassination.
-Biedde is here… somewhere. Give him the signal.
-Biedde will engage in combat with Comet Feet. Comet Feet is not expected to survive.
-Velvet Covers will do her best to hide this from Fluttershy. But it is impossible to guarantee she will not find out.

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Pretty much the same thing.

[] Conscription.
-Velvet Covers will bring Comet Feet into her service.
-Comet Feet will become a separate Confidante from Fluttershy, and he will be forced to accept any orders that he is given. As long as they do not harm Fluttershy, and as long as they are not clearly suicidal.
-This arrangement will continue as long as ONE of the following is in effect:
--(1) as long as Biedde remains summoned; or
--(2) as long as Velvet Covers is under the effect of "A Resolution" Edge Influence.
-Comet Feet will do his best to hide this arrangement from Fluttershy.
-Should Comet Feet "break free" by any means, he will immediately become an enemy. If that ever happens, it is impossible to know if he would attack you immediately, or if he would disappear to plan a more careful revenge. You also cannot predict what Fluttershy would do.

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Aside from the "enslavement" part, which I don't think our other Confidants would really appreciate, this just isn't sustainable. Even if we can keep paying to keep BIedde in the Wake, he's not going to stay forever. Plus, Fluttershy and likely Selene would also have objections to this once the Conscription inevitably breaks and we're found out

[] Status Quo.
-Nothing will change. And the next time you have this conversation, it might not be just with words.
-Your relationship with Comet Feet will remain the same. There will be no limitations on what you may ask Fluttershy to do, but some of your actions/requests towards her will steadily increase his ire.

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This is also unsustainable, though it at least lets us keep teaching Fluttershy the Lores, and maybe we'd be able to fight off Comet or get her to pacify him by the time his hatred comes to a head.

[] Negotiation.
-Velvet Covers and Comet Feet will engage in combat. Until one of them falls down to one health point.
-The winner will impose their terms upon the loser, and the loser will accept them.

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We're not winning this. We have 2 health to his 4, he only needs to win one round to defeat us.

[] Compromise.
-Velvet Covers and Comet Feet will reach an agreement.
-Velvet Covers will be prohibited from teaching anything about the Lores to Fluttershy. It will no longer be acceptable to level Fluttershy up, ask her to perform rituals, or do other Lore-related actions.
-Comet Feet will no longer grow his hatred towards you every time you ask him for a favor.
-Comet Feet and Fluttershy will remain a "single" Confidante, together. But rather than having to "ask Comet for a favor", he will take over Fluttershy's actions and perform them, if he is better suited for it. (Asking Fluttershy to go on an Expedition, or perform a ritual, will have Comet Feet to do it instead, for example).

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I kind of like this option, since Comet stops being a ticking time bomb on our backs and we can still make use of him for things like expeditions. I don't think we had any plans for using a Lore-trained Fluttershy anyway, since our only Winter ritual is the summoning of Mares-in-the-Light and The End is Beautiful.

Anyway, in general it's best to use Confidants for their specialties, which in Fluttershy's case would probably be taking care of animals (/people?) or supporting our friends while we work on other things ourselves, rather than eldritch ritual and expeditions.

The main issue with this option is that Fluttershy won't stand for it forever. Even if we don't ask her to do Lore-related things, she'll want to be Kind, to help her friends and the people we're trying to help.
We don't have enough progress in the Harmony path to give her power from there, and her mundane practice (living in a cottage taking care of animals) doesn't project control very well, so the only way for her to become powerful enough to contribute would be through Lores; in which case Comet will undoubtedly interpret it as us "tempting" her into studying the Lores even if we don't actively do anything.

Though I suppose we might be able to circumvent that with e.g. a Lantern Influence, so he knows it's eldritch-ly difficult for us to lie about this being Fluttershy's own initiative?


Overall, leaning towards Compromise as at least a near-universal improvement over the current situation. But there's no good options here.

 

[DelightedOne]

I honestly suspect that Comet's Edge realization has taken the form of being able to summon A Rousing Air on his own terms

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That sounds way too powerful for a Realization, the only creatures we have seen that are capable of calling influences at will are NAMES so I feel like it is too "big" to fit in a Realization, maybe as a Sacrament but that still feels like too much.

He also would have used it in his fight against Shining if he could.

 

[Sveta08]

Hmm.
There are several options, but reading people and how things have run before... There are only two options.

Negotiation and Compromise.

In the end, Compromise however, I would vouch as being the better choice here.
Not because of whatever terms Comet would offer with Negotiation, nor considering the odds.

But simply put, with all that is being planned for the rest of the turn, and for next turn?
We cannot handle having a wound right now.

Compromise. The situation will not worsen anymore.

 

[Steady Gaze]

I wrote a primitive combat simulator in Python, but never got around to posting it in the thread. It uses Monte Carlo simulation (i.e. trying combats a lot of times). Python isn't the best language for such a task in retrospect (better to use Rust or C++), but eh, it's written already. Additionally, I made the simplest version possible with no support for edge rerolls (since I'm not completely sure how they work, especially when both fighters have them) or changes to the bonus based on damage.

Spoiler: Combat simulator Python code

import argparse
from dataclasses import dataclass
import random
import sys

MIN_ROLL = 1
MAX_ROLL = 100
OVERFLOW = 50

@dataclass
class CombatResult:
    chealth1: int
    chealth2: int
    health1: int
    health2: int
    p1win: bool
    p2win: bool

def mcarlo_combat(health1, health2, bonus1, bonus2, **kwargs):
    chealth1 = health1
    chealth2 = health2
    overflow1 = 0
    overflow2 = 0

    while chealth1 > 0 and chealth2 > 0:
        roll1 = random.randint(MIN_ROLL, MAX_ROLL) + bonus1
        roll2 = random.randint(MIN_ROLL, MAX_ROLL) + bonus2

        if roll1 > roll2:
            overflow1 += roll1 - roll2
            if overflow1 >= OVERFLOW:
                damage = overflow1 / OVERFLOW
                chealth2 -= damage
                overflow1 -= OVERFLOW * damage

        elif roll2 > roll1:
            overflow2 += roll2 - roll1
            if overflow2 >= OVERFLOW:
                damage = overflow2 / OVERFLOW
                chealth1 -= damage
                overflow2 -= OVERFLOW * damage

    return CombatResult(
            chealth1=chealth1,
            chealth2=chealth2,
            health1=health1,
            health2=health2,
            p1win=chealth2<=0,
            p2win=chealth1<=0,
    )

def main() -> int:
    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(
            prog='mcarlo_combat',
            description='Monte Carlo simulation of combat outcomes',
    )
    parser.add_argument('--health1', '--h1', metavar='H1', type=int, help='Health for side 1')
    parser.add_argument('--health2', '--h2', metavar='H2', type=int, help='Health for side 2')
    parser.add_argument('--bonus1', '--b1', metavar='B1', type=int, default=0, help='Net bonus for side 1')
    parser.add_argument('--bonus2', '--b2', metavar='B2', type=int, default=0, help='Net bonus for side 2')

    parser.add_argument('--iterations', '-i', metavar='I', type=int, default=100000, help='Number of simulations to run.')

    args = parser.parse_args()
    vargs = vars(args)

    p1wins = sum((1 for result in (mcarlo_combat(**vargs) for _ in range(args.iterations)) if result.p1win))
    print(f'Side 1 wins {p1wins} of {args.iterations} simulations. Estimated {float(p1wins) / args.iterations * 100}% probability of victory.')
    return 0

if __name__ == '__main__':
    sys.exit(main())

Some results from running it on past combats:

Shining Armor was basically toast the moment Comet Feet resolved to fight him.

% python3 mcarlo_combat.py --health1 3 --health2 4 --bonus1 59 --bonus2 25 --iterations 100000
Side 1 wins 99388 of 100000 simulations. Estimated 99.388% probability of victory.

Playing the Celestia vs. Chrysalis fight from the moment her "no holds barred" bonus kicked in (since I'm not sure how to simulate the fight from the beginning), once Celestia got angry she was very likely to win.

% python3 mcarlo_combat.py --health1 3 --health2 6 --bonus1 90 --bonus2 70 --iterations 1000000
Side 1 wins 808857 of 1000000 simulations. Estimated 80.8857% probability of victory.

Does anyone know the relevant bonuses this time? My guess is we have personal combat +29 (according to our character sheet), and I remember somewhere a name-granted influence can be something like +40? "A rousing air" sounds like a lower level influence, so I will play numberwang and say it's +20. Comet's personal combat when fighting Shining Armor was

39 (Personal Combat)

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. We can subtract one from everypony's health to simulate fighting to 1 health. So:

% python3 mcarlo_combat.py --health1 1 --health2 3 --bonus1 69 --bonus2 59 --iterations 1000000
Side 1 wins 315626 of 1000000 simulations. Estimated 31.562600000000003% probability of victory.

Pretty meh odds. If only we had one more health :

% python3 mcarlo_combat.py --health1 2 --health2 3 --bonus1 69 --bonus2 59 --iterations 1000000
Side 1 wins 620402 of 1000000 simulations. Estimated 62.0402% probability of victory.

Edge sacrament odds:

% python3 mcarlo_combat.py --health1 2 --health2 4 --bonus1 69 --bonus2 59 --iterations 1000000
Side 1 wins 504331 of 1000000 simulations. Estimated 50.433099999999996% probability of victory.

Could someone tell me what the actual total bonuses are? These are just my guesses.

 

[Venerable Ro]

That sounds way too powerful for a Realization, the only creatures we have seen that are capable of calling influences at will are NAMES so I feel like it is too "big" to fit in a Realization, maybe as a Sacrament but that still feels like too much.

He also would have used it in his fight against Shining if he could.

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You're right, I completely forgot that the Calling the Influence ritual exists. Still impressive honestly, Comet learned a lot more from us than we thought he did if he cooked that up by himself.

The main issue with this option is that Fluttershy won't stand for it forever. Even if we don't ask her to do Lore-related things, she'll want to be Kind, to help her friends and the people we're trying to help.
We don't have enough progress in the Harmony path to give her power from there, and her mundane practice (living in a cottage taking care of animals) doesn't project control very well, so the only way for her to become powerful enough to contribute would be through Lores; in which case Comet will undoubtedly interpret it as us "tempting" her into studying the Lores even if we don't actively do anything.

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I'd say, couples counseling. Get Cadance in on it if we have to, so long as they talk to each other and not just at us.

 

[Shaper47]

this just isn't sustainable. Even if we can keep paying to keep BIedde in the Wake, he's not going to stay forever. Plus, Fluttershy and likely Selene would also have objections to this once the Conscription inevitably breaks and we're found out

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Your forgetting the leash and Selene having objections is a pretty big stretch. We've done a whole lot worse that Selene has been cool with and Comet is no innocent stallion with clean hands.

 

[LieutenantSpirit]

[] Compromise.
-Velvet Covers and Comet Feet will reach an agreement.
-Velvet Covers will be prohibited from teaching anything about the Lores to Fluttershy. It will no longer be acceptable to level Fluttershy up, ask her to perform rituals, or do other Lore-related actions.
-Comet Feet will no longer grow his hatred towards you every time you ask him for a favor.
-Comet Feet and Fluttershy will remain a "single" Confidante, together. But rather than having to "ask Comet for a favor", he will take over Fluttershy's actions and perform them, if he is better suited for it. (Asking Fluttershy to go on an Expedition, or perform a ritual, will have Comet Feet to do it instead, for example).

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We already don't have much use for Fluttershy, but getting the chance to send Comet out on expeditions incredibly helpful. With how many expeditions we want to take in the future, another body would huge boon. This choice also doesn't risk any wounds, doesn't hurt Fluttershy, saves resources like our Leash for other uses, and it means we won't have to worry about Comet as a threat in the future.

I feel like I'm missing something. Is there a hidden trap here? I suppose Biedde's Blade might cut us if Compromise = Hesitance, but that still would make this worth it. Fluttershy is even the element of Kindness, and from a certain perspective, reaching a compromise here would mean a Kindness from both sides.

 

[Bakkasama]

Realistically, the best choices are either assassination or compromise. Fighting him is a losing proposition, which discards the duel and negotiation. Biedde will be dispelled eventually due to wounds, which makes conscription a bad option and since he hates us more every time we ask for a favor, status quo is a ticking time bomb.

Of the two, I rather go with compromise because without Comet, Fluttershy is a lot less useful. Admitedly, we have a lot more options for Edge than we had at the time we got her as confidante.

The one thing that makes me doubt is that we don't have minions with Winter other than her which might cause issues in expeditions. In canon cultist simulator, the obstacles that used winter were fighting undead (could also be done with Edge), withstanding a curse (could also be done with heart) or surviving the cold (could also be done with forge). There is no guarantee would have the same obstacles but of the three canon choices, while we are good in Edge, we only have Mareinette as good on heart (and her binding might break in three turns time) and we lack a forge member. So it might be an issue for higher level expeditions. As an example, the Crystal empire is iirc a winter wonderland so expeditions there would be better off with a member that is good in either Forge or Winter.

Edit:

We already don't have much use for Fluttershy, but getting the chance to send Comet out on expeditions incredibly helpful. With how many expeditions we want to take in the future, another body would huge boon. This choice also doesn't risk any wounds, doesn't hurt Fluttershy, saves resources like our Leash for other uses, and it means we won't have to worry about Comet as a threat in the future.

I feel like I'm missing something. Is there a hidden trap here? I suppose Biedde's Blade might cut us if Compromise = Hesitance, but that still would make this worth it. Fluttershy is even the element of Kindness, and from a certain perspective, reaching a compromise here would mean a Kindness from both sides.

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This is basically keeping things as they are but making it so that Comet's anger meter stops growing in exchange of not training Fluttershy in the lores. While we don't have an use for her at this point, Winter helps survive curses, calm undead and survive winter climates, which are more likely to come up on higher level expeditions.

We are trading the chance for a higher level Winter confidant for an edge four confidant at a point in which we have several edge options (biedde, DoA, MitL, Luna).

The upside is that Luna is Winter too, so the issue is mitigated.

 

[Venerable Ro]

Your forgetting the leash and Selene having objections is a pretty big stretch. We've done a whole lot worse that Selene has been cool with and Comet is no innocent stallion with clean hands.

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Going back and re-reading the Leash rules it states that it mechanically moves someone one notch along the spectrum from "acquaintance" to "minion", and we saw from our time with Shining/Rarity that it gives us some degree of control over what the victim focuses on.

That said, we have a perfect example of "enemy" right now in Copper, and we can also see various completely unaffiliated ponies in our contacts list such as Fair Trial or Ponpon to give two random examples. It seems to me that we can only Leash ponies that we have some sort of defined relationship with, therefore if and when Comet switched to an "Enemy" he would be ineligible for the Leash and it could fail. Narratively, it would almost certainly be the Lionsmith's pattern, and the Leash breaking would make him even angrier.

 

[LieutenantSpirit]

I suppose Compromise could hurt our relationship with Fluttershy. She might be unhappy with Comet making a decision about her future without her input.

The one thing that makes me doubt is that we don't have minions with Winter other than her which might cause issues in expeditions. In canon cultist simulator, the obstacles that used winter were fighting undead (could also be done with Edge), withstanding a curse (could also be done with heart) or surviving the cold (could also be done with forge).

...

The upside is that Luna is Winter too, so the issue is mitigated.

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As you said, Luna is Winter and other Lores can fill the gaps, so I'm not worried about losing out on an upgraded Fluttershy. We're basically trading a confidant with low-level Lores for one with a different set of Lores at a higher level.

Just accounting for the time investment needed to train Fluttershy, this is worth the trade, in my opinion.

 

[Solace2117]

Compromise does leave options open in the future to potentially move Comet to a confidant on his own. I doubt Fluttershy will take being sidelined forever. It also allows Velvet to interact with both of them without having to worry about setting him off. Sure it could go wrong, but so could any of the options. If anything it could put the ball in Fluttershy's corner. Her coming out of her shell and standing up to Comet like she did last time could be more lasting in the long run.

 

[angelsadvocate666]

…Uh, ignoring that, from what I recall, a Leash enhances whatever your relationship is—i remember it being asked what it would do to Velvet's dad at one point and the answer was a vague "probably nothing good"—I also believe that I remember it being said a couple times that the Leash doesn't work on the—now former—Councillors because they're strong enough to shrug it off. Well, except Jade, but that was because she purposefully wouldn't do so.

 

[Shaper47]

therefore if and when Comet switched to an "Enemy" he would be ineligible for the Leash and it could fail.

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Maybe, but he'd be a minion at the time and breaking free from a leash while being a minion seems like a bit of a stretch.

We could literally order him to kill himself and he wouldn't be able to resist.

Now maybe it might be possible for him to break free using the lores but that's more a winter lore or Moth or forge type of thing not edge.

If used for our personal grail sacrament a doubt he'd be able to ever break free.

Narratively, it would almost certainly be the Lionsmith's pattern, and the Leash breaking would make him even angrier.

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Which of course runs into the issue of the cost for him to break out. Following in the Lionsmith hooves involves breaking what is most precious to him for freedom. That's not a cost Comet Feet is willing to pay.

 

[jason1stlegion]

If used for our personal grail sacrament a doubt he'd be able to ever break free.

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We need @OurLadyOfWires to confirm this. Comet would mechanically be a Confidant but I don't think he's actually one in the way that the Grail Sacrament requires.

 

[Gyldir]

Ah crap.
Unless Velvet has ways to bias the fight in her favour, there is no real good option here.
If it wasn't a fleeting opportunity, we could have gotten the wound healed first.
But like this? Crap.

Maybe, but he'd be a minion at the time and breaking free from a leash while being a minion seems like a bit of a stretch.

We could literally order him to kill himself and he wouldn't be able to resist.

Now maybe it might be possible for him to break free using the lores but that's more a winter lore or Moth or forge type of thing not edge.

If used for our personal grail sacrament a doubt he'd be able to ever break free.

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If he would be leash-able at all. (Gonna have to hear from @OurLadyOfWires on that)
Leash moves his opinion of us one step up.
He wouldn't be a confidant by opinion, he'd be an enemy forced to smile. That will backstab us as soon as he gets the opportunity.

 

[Shaper47]

Uh, ignoring that, from what I recall, a Leash enhances whatever your relationship is

Click to shrink...

He'd be a Confidant so it would enhance that to minion.

i remember it being asked what it would do to Velvet's dad at one point and the answer was a vague "probably nothing good"—

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???

We don't really have a relationship with worst dad anymore though?

 

[Greymere]

Our odds are actually so bad this should be considered a "lose on purpose" action.

Which might have several benefits. Enough that I will consider voting for it.

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Such as? Because I genuinely can't see any benefits that would be worth reducing ourselves to 1 HP on the same turn we're doing a Mansus expedition.

since our only Winter ritual is the summoning of Mares-in-the-Light and The End is Beautiful.

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Not even that. Mares-in-the-Light are Lantern/Edge/Knock. The only ritual application we have for Winter right now is the killing ritual.

While we don't have an use for her at this point, Winter helps survive curses, calm undead and survive winter climates, which are more likely to come up on higher level expeditions.

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Sure, in a vacuum maybe. But realistically, we'd never be sending her on those kinds of expeditions anyway, because her getting injured on an expedition is a great way to piss Comet off.

 

[Venerable Ro]

I feel like I'm missing something. Is there a hidden trap here? I suppose Biedde's Blade might cut us if Compromise = Hesitance, but that still would make this worth it. Fluttershy is even the element of Kindness, and from a certain perspective, reaching a compromise here would mean a Kindness from both sides.

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This would mean that Comet asks us to cut Fluttershy out of all of our eldritch dealings. No tutoring, no expeditions, no rituals, no mucking about with odd artifacts or what have you. Mundane social stuff like helping us with our paperwork is fine, but nothing occult.

Admittedly we haven't been doing anything like that anyway, so it's not that much of a loss, but it still limits her endgame potential. Not to mention the hypothetical wrinkle of her disagreeing with Comet making such a decision for her. But that's what having Cadance on speed dial is for, no?