Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

[spiderhellian]

Got it, that's really helpful, thank you. Did anyone do the math on how much we can expect to be able to study given 2 vs 3 actions, with some reasonable priority order?

…We are aiming for Moth sacrament next turn, right? And Grail sacrament as rebinding? Man I'll miss the Moth Grail wombocombo, it seemed like it would be such an interesting scene.

 

[Greymere]

Didn't we have an obligation to go on some dangerous expedition, Beyond the Edge of the World or something like that?

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I'm guessing you're talking about "Beyond the Map's Edge", for Baldomare's SH Sacrament? Not this turn, and I don't believe it's exceptionally dangerous, based on its description. Baldomare's busy giving us a Lantern Influence this turn, so she can't offer us Sacrament, but it's a definite possibility next turn assuming Biedde doesn't completely curbstomp us.

 

[Shaper47]

Didn't we have an obligation to go on some dangerous expedition, Beyond the Edge of the World or something like that?
This is what Bladomare wants and should give us a Promotion for Secret Stories

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No?

It requires a Baldomare AP and a Velvet AP and we've already used the Baldomare AP for her Lantern influence.

 

[spiderhellian]

Study (2x), by priority: Moth 5 book, Lantern 4 artifact, Winter 4 artifact, Moth 3 artifact, Manehattan book

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Iirc there's some vaguely annoying thing here because of Lantern Sacrament efficiencies (3 Books OR 2 artefacts OR artefact + book) we kinda need to split this out…

And hey we should definitely rank Manehattan book above low level artefacts, we've learned expeditions are extremely good value and that seems promising.

 

[ses]

Got it, that's really helpful, thank you. Did anyone do the math on how much we can expect to be able to study given 2 vs 3 actions, with some reasonable priority order?

…We are aiming for Moth sacrament next turn, right? And Grail sacrament as rebinding? Man I'll miss the Moth Grail wombocombo, it seemed like it would be such an interesting scene.

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The main benefit to 3x study action is the Moth 3 artifact.

2 study: Lantern and Winter artifacts and Moth 5 book almost certainly, Moth 3 artifact only if we lucksack hard. Manehattan book probable if no Moth 3 artifact. (oneshot the Moth book for moth artifact, 2shot for manehattan book)
3 study: Everything important basically guaranteed but we invest an extra AP into too much studying for the important stuff we have and have to probably read shitty low level books and the knock 2 artifact with the leftovers.

Didn't we have an obligation to go on some dangerous expedition, Beyond the Edge of the World or something like that?
This is what Baldomare wants and should give us a Promotion for Secret Stories, right?

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Beyond the Map's Edge is the Baldomare SH sacrament, requires a Velvet AP and a Baldomare AP. We can't do it this turn because baldie is occupied. It's not particularly dangerous but it has a disclaimer only so we dont think of it as a QM guarantee of no-danger. So probably like, slightly more danagerous than the baby-tier Selene fetching expedition Rarity got a wound on way back at the start of the quest.

Iirc there's some vaguely annoying thing here because of Lantern Sacrament efficiencies (3 Books OR 2 artefacts OR artefact + book) we kinda need to split this out…

And hey we should definitely rank Manehattan book above low level artefacts, we've learned expeditions are extremely good value and that seems promising.

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Very much agreed the Manehattan book is higher prio than the Knock 2 artifact. I'm highly against 3x study actions if the thread is going to refuse to read the Knock 5 book out of a desire to keep the Baldomare lifeline. Our AP is too important and Jade Whistle can spend her actions on Studying artifacts for us now.

 

[Greymere]

Got it, that's really helpful, thank you. Did anyone do the math on how much we can expect to be able to study given 2 vs 3 actions, with some reasonable priority order?

…We are aiming for Moth sacrament next turn, right? And Grail sacrament as rebinding? Man I'll miss the Moth Grail wombocombo, it seemed like it would be such an interesting scene.

Click to shrink...

I didn't check the math on everything, just the Moth 5 book and the Lantern 4 artifact since those are the Important Things, but:

Rolling X + 40 (Influence) +20 (Lantern 4) +14 (Learning), with -50 for Moth book

If reroll is spent on Moth 5 book:
~72% chance of first-trying it (opens slot for extra artifact study)
~98% chance of getting it in two attempts (opens slot for extra book study)
~99.99% chance of getting it in three attempts (no extra slots)

85% chance of success per attempt at studying the Lantern 4 artifact

If reroll is spent on the Lantern artifact instead:
~25% chance of first-trying the book
~87% chance of getting it in two attempts
~99.7% chance of getting it in three attempts

~99% chance of success per attempt at studying the Lantern 4 artifact

Iirc there's some vaguely annoying thing here because of Lantern Sacrament efficiencies (3 Books OR 2 artefacts OR artefact + book) we kinda need to split this out…

And hey we should definitely rank Manehattan book above low level artefacts, we've learned expeditions are extremely good value and that seems promising.

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I don't think we need to split it out. It's a priority list, so Bird can go down it and pick which options are actually possible as the rolls move along. We oneshot the Moth book? Two slots left in that study action, move on to artifact. Two attempts for the Moth book? Well the only thing that can fill that spot is the Manehattan book, so in it goes.

 

[ses]

Rolling X + 40 (Influence) +20 (Lantern 4) +14 (Learning), with -50 for Moth book

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Slightly higher due to Well Read and our artifact bonus from the SH 3 book (We've had minions use it for rituals and use it ourselves for studying in the same turn before)

 

[Shaper47]

Did anyone do the math on how much we can expect to be able to study given 2 vs 3 actions, with some reasonable priority order?

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It's been a while but I think I did. It's just that I have forgotten by now.

Double checking.

20 (lore application) + 14 (learning) + 40 (lantern influence) + (5 to +15) (SH artifact) = 79 to 89 bonus for artifacts

Artifact DC 90

So roll 1 to 11 or better

20 (lore application) + 14 (learning) + 5 (Well Read) + 40 (lantern influence) + (5 to +15) (SH artifact) - 50 (Ancient era deciphering) = 34 to 44

Moth Book 0/100

 

[Greymere]

Slightly higher due to Well Read and our artifact bonus from the SH 3 book (We've had minions use it for rituals and use it ourselves for studying in the same turn before)

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I don't think Well-Read applies to deciphering books, only reading them, but fair point on the SH artifact. Forgot about that.

 

[ses]

I don't think Well-Read applies to deciphering books, only reading them, but fair point on the SH artifact. Forgot about that.

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The deciphering/reading distinction was disposed of when the study rules were overhauled back on Turn 18. Well Read applies.

 

[spiderhellian]

Man, re-reading the previous vote, I was so sad we voted for uncool cannibalism as opposed to cool cannibalism. Now that's the hedonic treadmill right there — you get what you want, and you can't help but wanting more…

Mareinette would be proud.

Though really I'm sad we're not heading into Changeling Hive with our terrifying array of influences. That can't be our final personal AP, can it?

 

[Shaper47]

Though really I'm sad we're not heading into Changeling Hive with our terrifying array of influences. That can't be our final personal AP, can it?

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"..."​

It can be

 

[spiderhellian]

Wait wait wait, why can't that be a write-in for Softy! Take her and her friends on a little field trip! Give them a glimpse of what the noble heroes of the Lunar Bureau get up to! It's take your daughter to work day, Bird!

 

[Greymere]

The deciphering/reading distinction was disposed of when the study rules were overhauled back on Turn 18. Well Read applies.

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Alright then. New math!

Rolling X + 40 (Influence) + 20 (Lantern 4) + 14 (Learning) + 10 (Average Bonus From Artifact), with +5 (Well-Read) and -50 for Moth book

If reroll is spent on Moth 5 book:
~82% chance of first-trying it (opens slot for extra artifact study)
~99.8% chance of getting it in two attempts (opens slot for extra book study)
100% chance of getting it in three attempts (no extra slots)

95% chance of success per attempt at studying the Lantern 4 artifact. This also applies to the Winter 4 artifact, and anything lower level is a 100% success due to the lower DC.

For the sake of sanity, I put the artifact effect as +10 in the AnyDice calculation, since that's the median value of the bonus.

Man, re-reading the previous vote, I was so sad we voted for uncool cannibalism as opposed to cool cannibalism. Now that's the hedonic treadmill right there — you get what you want, and you can't help but wanting more…

Mareinette would be proud.

Though really I'm sad we're not heading into Changeling Hive with our terrifying array of influences. That can't be our final personal AP, can it?

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We're not allowed to double-dip on work.

 

[Shaper47]

Though really I'm sad we're not heading into Changeling Hive with our terrifying array of influences. That can't be our final personal AP, can it?

Click to shrink...

Tell you what I'll make you a plan for that.

Got to show off to our daughters minions.

[] Killing Changelings in the Name of the Moon
-[] Before this month starts, you will perform a ritual to draw the attention of [Edge]
-[] The delights of subservience (Leash currently targeting: NO TARGET)
--[] Spoiled Milk
-[] [SOCIAL] Soft Sweeps Fleeting Action
-[] Invoke a Risen
-[] Learn of that bright Edge, that lives within us all
--[] Be blessed by that Wound, which never ceases to grow REGRETTABLE ACTION
-[] [LEARN] There is something about this… thing, and you must learn what it is
--[] Level 4 Lantern artifact then level 4 Winter artifact
-[] [LEARN] It doesn't have to be just during a leisure weekend evening, you can fit a few minutes of reading even when walking between rooms if you really get into it!
--[] Level 5 Moth Book x 3
-[] [MANSUS] The Blank Door
--[] [MANSUS] Visit the Garden of Mirrors, where the Mares attend the glassy flowers
---[] Study the flowers
--[] [MANSUS] Visit Baldomare's Beacon
---[] Study the Beacon
-[] [MANSUS] The Summit
--[] [MANSUS] Ponder upon the Final Gate.
--[] [MANSUS] Ponder upon that ruined Workshop, where Cherenkolt's remains lie scattered.
-[] Get your hoofs dirty and join the assault on Tall Tale with the Luna Bureau

 

[ses]

If reroll is spent on Moth 5 book:
~82% chance of first-trying it (opens slot for extra artifact study)
~99.8% chance of getting it in two attempts (opens slot for extra book study)
100% chance of getting it in three attempts (no extra slots)

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I'm really not seeing how we don't just put it as Moth 3 if we oneshot, Manehattan book if we 2shot and do 2 study actions. With those numbers on the Priority 1 artifacts and the Moth 5 book spending 3 study actions to get to the knock 2 artifact seems unjustifiable compared to teaching rarity or doing social.

Wait wait wait, why can't that be a write-in for Softy! Take her and her friends on a little field trip! Give them a glimpse of what the noble heroes of the Lunar Bureau get up to! It's take your daughter to work day, Bird!

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If QM lets us I'd go Starship Troopers in an instant. I was so sad that the vote swung for boring efficiency. Also technically if we sent Velvet by normal expedition rules it would cost 2 AP.

 

[Greymere]

I'm really not seeing how we don't just put it as Moth 3 if we oneshot, Manehattan book if we 2shot and do 2 study actions. With those numbers on the Priority 1 artifacts and the Moth 5 book spending 3 study actions to get to the knock 2 artifact seems unjustifiable compared to teaching rarity or doing social.

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They're extra sources of Lore on expeditions and they might have useful bonuses. And tbh, in the 2 Study AP plans, the priority of the last two spots in the list don't matter that much. It just boils down to oneshot -> study Moth artifact, twoshot -> Study Manehattan book

But yes, with the adjusted numbers, it's probably better to just do 2 AP on studying, since the most likely outcome seems to be twoshot Moth 5 -> Manehattan (bcuz slot limitations) -> Lantern artifact -> Winter artifact.

 

[Greymere]

Something I wanted to point out re: Softy's cult. I find it kind of interesting that even though both the cult at large and Whacky Amor can recognize us as the Wolf-Mother, it's only Amor who is terrified of us. Perhaps Amor isn't completely claimed out by the Wolf yet, so its flame is still something to be feared?

Also:

Because her daughter had called them a group, and a gathering, and most importantly she called them her friends.

But the guest knew that, in truth, they were her followers. Her servants. Her… cult.

And innocent Soft Sweeps didn't even realize it.

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Selective blindness runs in the family, apparently! First with Velvet and her uncle's criminal empire, now with Soft and her burgeoning cult.