Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

[Greymere]

AotL - Lantern for Moth Book(-50 is not a small number, guys)

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It is indeed not a small number, but it's also only really a problem if we only do a single study action split between the book and an artifact, as in your plan. Two rolls, one invoking the reroll, boosted only by the max Lantern Influence is ~96% chance of success, and with two study actions (one for books, one for artifacts) pretty much the worst consequence of hitting that ~4% failure chance is not being able to read the Manehattan book because the Moth book has to also eat the third book study slot

 

[DelightedOne]

It is indeed not a small number, but it's also only really a problem if we only do a single study action split between the book and an artifact, as in your plan. Two rolls, one invoking the reroll, boosted only by the max Lantern Influence is ~96% chance of success, and with two study actions (one for books, one for artifacts) pretty much the worst consequence of hitting that ~4% failure chance is not being able to read the Manehattan book because the Moth book has to eat the third book study slot

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Hmmm, I could drop the Steppes FO for another Study action. You know what, I'm doing it, then we can have 3 Edge AotL.

That has to be enough for such a dangerous turn.

 

[Pittauro]

So bored...

Better plan a bit then.

Detectives - Dodge City
Constables - Tall Tale Proto-Hive
Commissioner - Get our hooves dirty
Free Lore Introduction - Lantern

Mareinette - Spoiled Rich
Baldomare - Lantern Influence
Biedde - Edge Influence
Forge Name - RotT for Level 7 book
DoA - Knock Influence
Selene (3) - Soothe the Night, Edge AotL(x2)
Cover your bases (+2 AP) - Servants, Risen, Fluttershy, DoA, Rarity

AotL - Edge
Knock - Shattered Stairways
Forge - Forge 2 for Forge Name
Grail - Spoiled Rich
Social - Applejack
1+2) Study: Moth 5 book and Manehattan book, Lantern 4 artifact and Winter 4 Artifact
3) Study: "A memory of the Path"
4) Soft Sweeps FO
5) Edge Sacrament
6) Rite of Joyous (Re)Forging

Huh, I actually like this one.

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Underlined things I disagree with.

1) if we're having Mareinette do Spoiled Rich, I don't think it's necessary to also use our free social on her. I'd do Rarity lesson instead.

2) that seems like a waste of Selene actions. I'd give up one Velvet AP, have Selene scry for the forge 6 reagent and find a 3-circles location so next turn we could potentially start summoning Mares in the Light.

3) for a "we're not grailing Spoiled Rich" variant, we have Selene scry for the lvl 7 book, while having our forge name make the prison.

4)Free social I'd teach Rarity. as part of the lesson maybe we can introduce her to what I hope we'll call "Rare Fabric" or "Rare Silk". "Item" is so impersonal...

There's no point in doing Memory of the Path. We just saw it's part 2 of 3. We don't have the actions to spare to finish it before All In. We should give up on that I think.

Even if we finished it, it's likely that the next step among the Harmony Path requires access to BOTH Celestia and Luna... so, yeah, not much of a point until at least Celestia is pacified.





So, Counter Plan

Detectives - Dodge City
Constables - Tall Tale Proto-Hive
Commissioner - Get our hooves dirty
Free Lore Introduction - Lantern

Mareinette - Spoiled Rich
Baldomare - Lantern Influence
Biedde - Edge Influence
Forge Name - RotT for Level 7 book (change him to Lantern)
DoA - Knock Influence
Selene (3) - Soothe the Night, RotT Forge 6 Reagent, Find us an expedition site.
Cover your bases (+1 AP) - Servants, Filthy Rich
Comet - Edge AotL
Risen - Edge AotL
Rarity - Commission (if it won't ruin her career).
Axe - Keys if we can. if not, find us a 3-circles ritual location, or switch with Selene and let HER do it.





AotL - Edge
Knock - Shattered Stairways
Forge - Forge 2 for Forge Name
Grail - Filthy Rich
Social - Applejack
1+2) Study: Moth 5 book and Manehattan book, Lantern 4 artifact and Winter 4 Artifact
3) Soft Sweeps FO
4) Edge Sacrament
5) Rite of Joyous (Re)Forging

 

[Sveta08]

I think I still want to do Edge Sacrament now. I want to get at least one sacrament each turn, really.

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I personally am leaning towards doing the Edge Sacrament this turn for an unpleasantly simple reason.

If things go wrong, we need healing time. The later we push it back, the less we have. Or, we have to spend bits and AP on healing. Neither of which are great.

 

[Greymere]

Today has apparently been an exercise in finding out just how much I can strain my plan's backbone and still get what I want out of it. Aka I realized that since Spoiled only needs to be Confidant at the end of the turn if we want to go for Grail Sacrament according to Bird, there's no (mechanical) harm in putting the Leash on Filthy this turn to wring one more follower AP out of our resources (edit: and apparently so did Pittauro, lol).


Detectives - Dodge City
Constables - Tall Tale Proto-Hive
Commissioner - Get our hooves dirty
Free Lore Introduction - Lantern

Mareinette - Spoiled Rich
Baldomare - Lantern Influence
Biedde - Edge Influence
Forge Name - Forge lesson
Selene (3) - RotT for Lv. 7 book, RotT for Lv. 6 Forge reagent, Soothe the Night
DoA (2) - AotL Edge, for Sacrament (x2)
Cover your bases (+2 AP) - Servants, Risen, Fluttershy, Rarity, Filthy Rich

AotL - Edge, for Sacrament
Knock - Shattered Stairways
Forge - Forge 2 for Forge Name
Grail - Filthy Rich
Social - Level up Rarity
1+2+3) Study, by priority within sections: (Moth 5 book, Manehattan book), (Lantern 4 artifact, Winter 4 artifact, Moth 3 artifact, Knock 2 artifact)
4) Soft Sweeps FO
5) Edge Sacrament
6) Rite of Joyous (Re)Forging

Technically I'd have preferred working on our Forge Sacrament, but we just barely don't have the bits for it with a double-scry so I decided to go w/ studying the Moth 3 + Knock 2 artifacts so we can liquidate them next turn to get plenty of bits for expeditions and Sacraments.

 

[ses]

I personally am leaning towards doing the Edge Sacrament this turn for an unpleasantly simple reason.

If things go wrong, we need healing time. The later we push it back, the less we have. Or, we have to spend bits and AP on healing. Neither of which are great.

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Yeah this turn is the best time we're going to get to just roll the dice on the 79%. If we dont do it this turn we're going to need to commit to Personal Forge or a weapon scry to get a way to better guarantee success. Though Edge 5 is not required for All In. A single MITL added to the team does more for us than Velvet personally getting an Edge sacrament does for All In specifically. Sacraments in general are not a great effort-to-reward ratio for specifically All In, we should want them and plan to use them for our pre-All-In prep as well if we're going for them.

Technically I'd have preferred working on our Forge Sacrament, but we just don't have the bits for it with a double-scry so I decided to go w/ studying the Moth 3 + Knock 2 artifacts so we can liquidate them next turn for plenty of bits for expeditions and Sacraments.

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I really hope we only liquidate the Knock 2 personally. The moth 3 artifact is an excellent one to add to our roster for expeditions, as Forge Name in grail mode plus the moth 3 artifact along with the two other level 4 artifacts gives Axe All-3 when soloing an expedition. And uh, there's no chance of us bringing a befriended Moth Name to All In

Mareinette - Spoiled Rich
Baldomare - Lantern Influence
Biedde - Edge Influence
Forge Name - Forge lesson
Selene - RotT for Lv. 7 book, RotT for Lv. 6 Forge reagent, Soothe the Night
DoA - AotL Edge (x2)
Cover your bases (+2 AP) - Servants, Risen, Fluttershy, Rarity, Filthy Rich

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You should consider having Forge Name handle the 3circle site (In SH mode) or making us bits (Forge/Grail mode?). If we're committing to Edge Sacrament now we don't need to rush Personal Forge regardless, we should be able to afford summoning at least one MITL next turn if we have a 3circle site even with all our other priorities and get some sorely needed extra follower AP, we don't need the Forge Lesson to be able to commit to potionmaking on a future turn anyway since the Forge Influence will handle getting us to 3/4 regardless.

 

[DelightedOne]

1) if we're having Mareinette do Spoiled Rich, I don't think it's necessary to also use our free social on her. I'd do Rarity lesson instead.

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The social I put was Applejack, the grail is the leash, but yeah I'm gonna change it to Filthy so we can keep him close in case something happens to Spoiled.

2) that seems like a waste of Selene actions. I'd give up one Velvet AP, have Selene scry for the forge 6 reagent and find a 3-circles location so next turn we could potentially start summoning Mares in the Light.

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Maybe? I know what I want to do here and that was the first way I found to do it.

4)Free social I'd teach Rarity. as part of the lesson maybe we can introduce her to what I hope we'll call "Rare Fabric" or "Rare Silk". "Item" is so impersonal...

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But why? She is perfect as a Minion.

There's no point in doing Memory of the Path. We just saw it's part 2 of 3. We don't have the actions to spare to finish it before All In. We should give up on that I think.

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It is a shame we disagree on this, but I see this as necessary in case Velvet dies. We can't in good conscience leave Soft Sweeps with the Wolf as her only option.

I also don't really like Glory that much, as you already know, so I'll be doing what I want on this issue.

Even if we finished it, it's likely that the next step among the Harmony Path requires access to BOTH Celestia and Luna... so, yeah, not much of a point until at least Celestia is pacified.

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Isn't that why we are soothing the night every turn? I doubt if Selene finds out how to get rid of Daybreaker the thread won't jump to it to avoid a possible boss fight or a chase across Equestria for the creature that stole DISCORD from under Celestia's muzzle.

So better have it ready now than needing to convince people to do it later.

 

[Greymere]

You should consider having Forge Name handle the 3circle site (In SH mode) or making us bits (Forge/Grail mode?). If we're committing to Edge Sacrament now we don't need to rush Personal Forge regardless, we should be able to afford summoning at least one MITL next turn if we have a 3circle site even with all our other priorities and get some sorely needed extra follower AP, we don't need the Forge Lesson to be able to commit to potionmaking on a future turn anyway since the Forge Influence will handle getting us to 3/4 regardless.

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Respectfully, no. Not getting a Forge lesson this turn means it is effectively impossible get our Forge Sacrament until T25 at the earliest because of how the timeline of Forge Name AP usage works out unless we get very lucky with picking up a scrap from somewhere else, assuming we're prioritizing Blue Gold (which, we should be).

Edit:

But why? She is perfect as a Minion.

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I mean I can't tell you why Pittauro is doing it, but in my plan it's to boost her career roll for this turn to try and make sure her career is safe so she can do a commission next turn.

 

[ses]

Respectfully, no. Not getting a Forge lesson this turn means it is effectively impossible get our Forge Sacrament until T25 at the earliest because of how the timeline of Forge Name AP usage works out unless we get very lucky with picking up a scrap from somewhere else, assuming we're prioritizing Blue Gold (which, we should be).

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I dont think we need our Forge Sacrament sooner than that anyway, and I really doubt we're going to Forge Influence on Turn 23 so we wouldn't be getting it until turn 25 at the earliest even with a forge lesson.

Like, I'm open to argument there but I dont see how we get Personal Forge earlier than that without spending his AP on Forge Influence on turn 23, and therefore not helping with the two critical importance expeditions to the tune of nine lore levels for zero bits.

 

[DelightedOne]

I honestly don't see why take the Forge Sacrament if we are taking the Forge Name, if we had more time I would understand but the clock is ticking.

 

[Greymere]

I dont think we need our Forge Sacrament sooner than that anyway, and I really doubt we're going to Forge Influence on Turn 23 so we wouldn't be getting it until turn 25 at the earliest even with a forge lesson.

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We don't actually need the Forge Influence to finish it. It would be cheaper probably, since we'd have a higher chance of finishing early, but ultimately we don't need it. Three actions toward the project spread over two turns is a 83.6% chance of success (which is better than our chances at Biedde, may I add). 94.9% if you add in a single Forge 3 reagent somewhere along the way. It's entirely feasible for us to get it on T24.

 

[Sveta08]

-snip

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Our poor bit repository.
That said, glad someone else saw Filthy as a AP option with the Leash.

That said, given the timing of everything, I do agree with this on the whole. I am not the happiest to spend both of Axe's actions on AoTL, but I see why.

And, admittedly....
It will probably not make her as unhappy as, if for the first actions we ask of her now that she's freed, is to make a prison, as was previous plans.

 

[ses]

We don't actually need the Forge Influence to finish it. It would be cheaper probably, since we'd have a higher chance of finishing early, yes, but ultimately we don't need it. Three actions toward the project spread over two turns is a 83.6% chance of success (which is better than our chances at Biedde, may I add). 94.9% if you add in a single Forge 3 reagent somewhere along the way. It's entirely feasible for us to get it on T24.

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We need Forge Influence for the 2 scraps no matter what though? We don't get any bennies for the sacrament until we hit Forge 4 4/4 AND have completed the sacrament. So there's no point doing the actions without the influence.

 

[Greymere]

We need Forge Influence for the 2 scraps no matter what though? We don't get any bennies for the sacrament until we hit Forge 4 4/4 AND have completed the sacrament. So there's no point doing the actions without the influence.

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...damnit I forgot about the Influence scraps :-(

I'd still argue for doing the Forge lesson this turn though, since it means we can spread out the actions over 3 turns instead of cramming it all into one, which is just generally easier to shape plans around (99% success when done like this btw, assuming Forge Influence only affects 1 of the 3 rolls).

 

[Sveta08]

We need Forge Influence for the 2 scraps no matter what though? We don't get any bennies for the sacrament until we hit Forge 4 4/4 AND have completed the sacrament. So there's no point doing the actions without the influence.

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Agreed that we need the influence scraps. But, I feel the influence should probably be on a different turn.
None of our actions need Forge this turn, from the look of it.

... Also huh.
Most plans have Velvet helping out the Bureau with both max Edge and Lantern Influence.
Brilliant and Cutting indeed

 

[DelightedOne]

Detectives - Dodge City
Constables - Tall Tale Proto-Hive
Commissioner - Get our hooves dirty
Free Lore Introduction - Lantern

Mareinette - Spoiled Rich
Baldomare - Lantern Influence
Biedde - Edge Influence
Forge Name - RotT for Level 7 book(lesser Lantern)
DoA - Knock Influence, Edge AotL(Sacrament)
Selene (3) - Soothe the Night, RotT Forge 6 reagent, Edge AotL(Sacrament)
Cover your bases (+2 AP) - Servants, Risen, Fluttershy, Filthy Rich, Rarity

AotL - Edge(Sacrament)
Knock - Shattered Stairways
Forge - Forge 2 for Forge Name
Grail - Filthy Rich
Social - Applejack
1+2) Study: Moth 5 book and Manehattan book, Lantern 4 artifact and Winter 4 Artifact
3) Study: "A memory of the Path"
4) Soft Sweeps FO
5) Edge Sacrament
6) Rite of Joyous (Re)Forging

Phew, it is getting harder to find a way to trim this tree.

 

[ses]

...damnit I forgot about the Influence scraps :-(

I'd still argue for doing the Forge lesson this turn though, since it means we can spread out the actions over 3 turns instead of cramming it all into one, which is just generally easier to shape plans around (99% success when done like this btw, assuming Forge Influence only affects 1 of the 3 rolls).

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We're tight in AP and Bit Hell enough that there's probably significant gain to seeing if we win the coinflip on 2 Influence'd actions or if we need to do a 3rd one to finish off, rather than doing a preparatory uninfluenced sacrament action and removing all doubt that it will cost 150 bits and 3 ap.

Plus I really want to handle the 3circle site, as I think our budget can accommodate a MITL summon next turn even with all our other priorities. And that MITL on turn 23 will be really useful as it can get all 3 actions out before being sacrificed to a +160 Baldomare Scry to scout something that might have (-150 Wards)... like All In.

 

[Earth-Destroyer]

@OurLadyOfWires

Just to be clear if we capture some Changelings by way of the Bureau can use the for Mareinette grail sacrament? And for our personal Lantern.

 

[ses]

@OurLadyOfWires

Just to be clear if we capture some Changelings we can use the for Mareinette grail sacrament?

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We've been repeatedly told Changelings dont count for it.

EDIT:

If we really have our trusted subordinate right there. Is there really a reason not to heal him?

I trust you have a reason at least. I would just like to confirm.

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Not being able to rush Cadance and associated priorities is a pretty good price to pay for the fact we're not being charged AP for them tbh.

 

[Zxzx24]

You didn't pick the "show Cadance the healing ritual" option, and Velvet is already investing in Cadance on her own (read: without spending action points). So, none of that yet.

You introduced Cadance to the Lores, and a Name. Let that settle for a bit.

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If we really have our trusted subordinate right there. Is there really a reason not to heal him?

I trust you have a reason at least. I would just like to confirm.

@OurLadyOfWires

 

[Spacemurica]

This is a bit random, but I just learned that apparently in the later seasons of mlp the Tree of Harmony gets an avatar in the form of a sparkling Twilight Sparkle?
I kinda hope we eventually meet Harmony in the quest and they manifest as the same.

 

[DelightedOne]

This is a bit random, but I just learned that apparently in the later seasons of mlp the Tree of Harmony gets an avatar in the form of a sparkling Twilight Sparkle?
I kinda hope we eventually meet Harmony in the quest and they manifest as the same.

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If you want to meet Harmony I'm trying to build a bridge to it.

If we really have our trusted subordinate right there. Is there really a reason not to heal him?

I trust you have a reason at least. I would just like to confirm.

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Gonna need to ping him if you want an answer. But it is probably because Shining is a part of the Bureau and we still have not made them functional enough in the lores to know and perform rituals. Nor Cadance's lore levels are high enough to try it.

 

[Sveta08]

If we really have our trusted subordinate right there. Is there really a reason not to heal him?

I trust you have a reason at least. I would just like to confirm.

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That takes time. Understanding. Bits.
Two of which we will be perilously low on.

It also reflects a change in Cadence and that sort, which OurLadyofWires has wanted to do directly, not just freely with our Turn spent actions. Both Velvet and Cadence are extraordinary busy after all.

 

[Pittauro]

I personally am leaning towards doing the Edge Sacrament this turn for an unpleasantly simple reason.

If things go wrong, we need healing time. The later we push it back, the less we have. Or, we have to spend bits and AP on healing. Neither of which are great.

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that's true too.

Today has apparently been an exercise in finding out just how much I can strain my plan's backbone and still get what I want out of it. Aka I realized that since Spoiled only needs to be Confidant at the end of the turn if we want to go for Grail Sacrament according to Bird, there's no (mechanical) harm in putting the Leash on Filthy this turn to wring one more follower AP out of our resources (edit: and apparently so did Pittauro, lol).

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yeah.

We'd be using the "prisoner" part of "prisoner or minion" for Spoiled, it's just that we'd be keeping her a prisoner for such a short time (hours at best, minutes at worst) that we don't need a prison to keep her, as both Velvet and Mareinette would be there.


With that said, I'm still strongly against using Spoiled Rich. This is Velvet condemning a pony to death for the crime of being a bad mother... which she didn't even see for herself directly.

She just guessed it from Filthy's and Diamond Tiara's words and behaviour, basically.

To not spend long paragraphs (again) on the topic, I'd prefer for us to kill the worst pony we don't know directly, as to minimize the "evilness" AND the direct impact on Velvet.

I stand by what I said: Nobody deserved to be grailed that way, but if we're going to do it anyway I'd rather do it to the worst person we can. Even if it costs us a bit more.



so, as for the plan... I'd rather have Rarity on commissions for bits, but admittedly if we can sell artifacts that is more bits for us anyway... and if Rarity doesn't fail her work roll we can do commission next turn.

I'm also considering forge name on prison this turn.

I really hope we only liquidate the Knock 2 personally. The moth 3 artifact is an excellent one to add to our roster for expeditions, as Forge Name in grail mode plus the moth 3 artifact along with the two other level 4 artifacts gives Axe All-3 when soloing an expedition. And uh, there's no chance of us bringing a befriended Moth Name to All In

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It will depend on how much we need bits, I imagine. And between Tall Tale and the expeditions for next turn (reagent forge 6, lvl 7 book, manehattan, possibly another one if we search for it this turn) we can hope of finding another artifact or two to study and potentially sell.

Also, if Mareinette's prices are the same as last time, IF we don't go for Spoiled (as I hope we don't) we might need the knock 2 artifact for her.

OR we might need the Moth 3 one if the price goes up.

It is a shame we disagree on this, but I see this as necessary in case Velvet dies. We can't in good conscience leave Soft Sweeps with the Wolf as her only option.

I also don't really like Glory that much, as you already know, so I'll be doing what I want on this issue.

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No point in planning for Velvet's death at all at this point. Not at the cost of wasted actions like this.

Especially because a single action here is pointless. you'll have to do AT LEAST a second one on part 2, and probably 3 on part 3 if the trend stands.

Isn't that why we are soothing the night every turn? I doubt if Selene finds out how to get rid of Daybreaker the thread won't jump to it to avoid a possible boss fight or a chase across Equestria for the creature that stole DISCORD from under Celestia's muzzle.

So better have it ready now than needing to convince people to do it later.

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Except we have far more urgent and useful stuff to work on now, like getting the bits to accelerate expeditions and sacraments.

IF we somehow manage to pacify Celestia, we can reconsider.

 

[Shaper47]

[X] Teresa
[X] Ember
[X] Morning Star
[X] Cinder
[X] Unkindled One
[X] Lightbringer

[X] (MAREINETTE) You introduced her to Cadance, yes, but you are still very interested in her endeavors.

Probably moaning about the blackmail vote again.

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It's more Biedde at the moment, so the 60 bits. But if we included the sunk cost of Twilight it would be 560 bits.

 

[DelightedOne]

Except we have far more urgent and useful stuff to work on now, like getting the bits to accelerate expeditions and sacraments.

IF we somehow manage to pacify Celestia, we can reconsider.

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It is understable, but I'm pretty sure that Celestia being pacified will make people even more comfortable with Glory, now that Daybreaker won't be a danger. So I'll fight for any scrap of Harmony I can get now.

And once again I would like to state that "urgent and useful stuff" already bit us several times when we focused on it completely.

 

[Earth-Destroyer]

@ourladyofwire where their any prisoners from Manehatten. They where lore involved so the sole authority of the Burure.

 

[Greymere]

Except we have far more urgent and useful stuff to work on now, like getting the bits to accelerate expeditions and sacraments.

IF we somehow manage to pacify Celestia, we can reconsider.

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Pacifying Celestia should also remove the doom timer which is why we're trying to crunch so many Sacraments in such a short period of time (i.e. being as prepared as possible in case of emergency All In)

 

[Earth-Destroyer]

We need to go after windy this turn, we need prisoners already.

 

[Sveta08]

I...

...

I have a likely useless request, but probably won't cost us anything and could be monumentally helpful if that's the case.

Can we give Cadence a Wrong Key, to protect herself and Celestia?

I... I am still dubious about Windy Flakes. But more specifically, I'm worried about The Path Through Nightmares. Or, perhaps, other rituals he has discovered.
If Windy is still out there, and heeding Wolf Words, then... Who would be easier to attack and cause the most agony?

The only other known Lore welder? Or the brilliant shining sun, ignorant of your ways?

We have two keys now, and they expire next turn. Offering one to Cadence costs us little if we ourselves aren't attacked this turn. We will have one to protect us.

Can I ask that of us?
@OurLadyOfWires Would you permit that?