No. QM warnings aside, the potential of Celestia getting a Brand, and later on Daybreak getting GLORY after burning us to ash should terrify you more?
And Temperature is the only option that regular ponies have a chance in helping with (inasmuch as Velvet is normal), while the Mansus option likely involves something on par with Regrettable Actions in terms of Manus-impact.
If by "commit" you mean spend slightly over half Velvet's AP while her Names and friends still all work to further her cause, then yes.
Moth Sacrament or else we risk immolation if Celestia reaches Lantern 4 next turn.
No.
I'd be pretty surprised if it doesn't, tbh. The Bureau option's AP efficiency over the next two turns just doesn't work in our favor, Glare actively hampers our sprint to the finish line, and Mansus might as well have This Is a Bad Idea scrawled on it in red marker.
Mostly, I still want to do it next turn because a) in the unlikely event we get wounded, we'd be guaranteed to have a turn to heal, and b) I want us to at least have a chance of actually being able to use the Sacrament power before we rush off into All In
lessons learned, yeah.
Here is the secret, Selene: We don't know either
Truly terrible dreams, and harrowing prisons that hurt the prisoner as much as the prison guard (and prison herself)
I'm reminded of what's left after passing the Blank Door.
...task succesfully failed?
...Damn it Selene, you had one job!
I'm leaning 3 actions Velvet on helping Cadance fix Celestia, delaying Smiles by a turn.
No.
It might be better to do Baldomare SH Sacrament first, using Baldomare and ONE Velvet action, instead of two Velvet ones.
We HAVE to be cautious.
We need to prepare with the expectation that we're going to have to go for All In at the end of Turn 24. There is no room for error here. The bits we would save do not matter in the timeframe that is important right now. What matters is making sure that Baldomare and Cherenkolt (and Smiles) are fully befriended by the end of Turn 24, and Mareinette + DoA duoing the quarry while we make the Forge 6 reagent is hands-down the most reliable way of making that happen.
I was talking about Baldomare's SH Sacrament there, yes. Which is why it was only occupying one AP slot and not two.
You know, after a while I started thinking this was Celestia killing Discord. And getting Blood of the Outsider.
FWIW I wouldn't assume that Celestia going 4>5 will follow the cadence of her growth so far. But I accept that it might, and thanks for doing the math.