Pax's Alternate History Snippet repository.

[Imperator Pax]

September 1924
The city had been the first real city the cadre had exercised power in as approaching a government... they'd moved here ... into western Zhili leaving the old offices in Tietsin when the Old Dynasty had still been in power.

Yuan Shikai had not minded, especially during the White Wolf rebellion and that tacit endorsement of that pre revolution status quo had lead to it being accepted prima facie after the President's death. In short Cao Kun had remained dujun of Zhili de jure, but everyone in the north accepted that there was Western... interior Zhili now, and a Eastern 'coastal' Zhili for which Cao administered from officially Tiestin but more realistically from his offices, or even his personal residence, in Peking. That had continued really until the end of the decade when Duan then executive had more formally recognized Western Zhili as more properly its own province, and Cao had gone along with it almost passively.

The official rationale by both men and their offices was that it was an internal... familial matter within the beiyang... much like the current crisis might otherwise have been styled.

"Zhang has formally denounced the Zhili clique," Allen nodded to Waite's announcement even if the announcement was wholly formal report...everyone already knew it. The telegram had gone out.. and it was a declaration of war. It didn't matter that Zhang's denunciations had been boilerplate, and that was probably why, "The legations don't think it matters."

"Are they expecting a repeat of last time then?"

"maybe, some of them probably." Waite answered Carter. "Zhang didn't say anything new in terms of grievances." And as a result Peking was still a bit laggard when it came to moving, which now definitely seemed like a mistake. There were concerns already in the paper, in Xian's papers, about the safety of people living in Western Zhili, and there was a big holiday coming up which any fighting threatened to spoil.

"Do you think him not saying anything new is intentional?"

Allen doubted it, and Waite shook his head, "Doubtful," He answered, "I don't think Zhang thinks he needs to say anything more to justify what he's about to do." In truth the whole scuffle over who or rather which provincial dujun should administer Shanghai was an excuse... a justification to revisit existing old grievances. Anhui was a buffer in the political machine of the beiyang but one with still social sway.

"what about Bell cabling Washington?"

But the telegrams from Tietsin to the Secretary of State weren't going to do anything, just as telegrams from Cunningham in Shanghai weren't going to be able to manage anything. "Other than him expecting Chekiang and Kiangsu to be the match to the powder? We know Woosung," the forts nominally protecting Shanghai "were attacked by ships that left Nanking and Foochow." But that went to how up in the air things could be."

"I want you to," Well Carter's section, "To keep reading," Great,"Northern's telegrams," He stated... technically the gendarmes was reading all the telegrams going out through Tietsin's cables, but Bell had selected Great Northern as his communication company of choice believing them least likely to be subject to censorship. "You're also to reiterate to the charge d'affairs he should expect reports of the activity of the army, including of the reports of aircraft."

Bell would likely wring his hands, but no more than what he was already doing over the possibility of Nanking's ships exchanging, further, fire with the Forts at Woosung. Or rather he was concerned what a full scale naval battle in shanghai harbor might yield in terms of bystanders in the proximity. "Do I tell him accurately what we have on standby? The boys ready to go up and over?"

Waite and Allen regarded each other. "Give him the ballpark estimate, if he knows better we'll find out when he sends Washington the update, but forty thousand men, is accurate enough." Even if it didn't count 2nd​ Division or the Reserves in the second line of the corp standing back further down the rail line. "With Bell, and anyone," Else, "Not familiar with the situation it will downplay our position. Make them less likely to consider it."

Young Carter swung off heading for a train that would still run, and take him to the American Legation, and to the trunk of telecommunications which carried word from North China across the sea to the United States, and left the two engineers alone in the room with maps and papers listing ammunition stores, and counts of victuals. "We should convene the staff tonight."

"I agree." Waite replied after a minute. "Zhang is going to try and let his boy coordinate his planes and Renaults in a coordinated attack, if it works well... it'd be an impressive show. I don't personally think his tanks have it, but even if they're just mobile pill boxes thats still a nasty surprise for infantry." Zhang and Cao had both increased the number of machine guns in their best troops... but Cao was short on funds, and also inherently, institutionally conservative on organization.

"Shan has distributed the brigade, do you know what our 20mm," The autocannon mounted in the Assault Company's fighting vehicle's turret, "will do to an FT?"

"Bad things." Waite replied sardonically, then with a more professional demeanor, "Lets say Zhang the younger does confront our mounted troops, whether thats the dragoons or your civil affairs I'm not sure that the frontal armor on a Renault would stop the first round, it certainly wouldn't take several of them head on. In that firepower has outclassed defense." He paused, "Admittedly the FT is an old tank, I doubt his Italian models are different armor wise, but they're also not his only tanks, and those new tanks he's gotten from Vickers, they might survive better... but his apparent interest in the Mark 1," The bigger Vickers offering that had been shown off in the spring, "has yet to amount to a purchase. Our fellow in London says thats because he wants to make them domestically." Which would probably mean Vickers, some Japanese firm and Manchuria getting together and working something out... that probably wasn't going to happen until this settled, and there was money for it. "That presupposed Little Zhang takes a swing at our cavalry."

Which there wasn't evidence he would... "He might not. We are threading a fine line." And Zhang's rhetoric danced around picking a fight with anyone unintentionally. The first couple telegrams last month had been careful in their wording and mostly about old grievances with Wu Peifu. "But we can also be confident that if Wu was going to take that bait and launch an attack in response it would have happened already." In other words Cao Kun wasn't going to be on the offensive. The Zhili Clique intended to hold and defend its ground, which could have given it an advantage by not needing to move troops cross country... maybe that had been Wu's argument that it would cost less, force the enemy to exert themselves and then let Zhili leverage its larger manpower reserve to stop its northern neighbor.

The two generals stepped out of the planning room, past the men posted at the door, and stopped only long enough at the mess to grab coffee. It was ninety percent humidity, the mercury read it as about eighty something. Troopers in black from the Gendarmes 1st​ stood around combat cars with colt browning fitted on pintle mounted carriers.

The Beiyang military academy at Baoding was metaphorically within spitting distance. Last time Baoding had been a potential concern... and further back, before that in 1917 Waite had sighted his brigade of artillery, and watched the city from a hillside view on a July morning.

1st​Rifle Division's junior most Regiment had already moved over the river north of the city.... not that that was hard Baoding was a quick train ride north, so there was already a good bridge that allowed the troops to cross. That was where things became complicated with where the legal borders were... with Cao Kun, with Duan Qirui it had never been an issue. Baoding was 'eastern zhili', never mind that it was well in land... and Zhengzhou well to the south was 'Western Zhili'. Allen took a pull from the coffee, looked at the parked vehicles, men coming back from late morning pt runs. "Lu is supposedly going to start fighting on Thursday, is that it?"

Waite shrugged, because the truth was Kiangsu had been shooting at the other side and the other side had been shooting back for a week now. Small skirmishes... clashes in the street, some of not even with guns, brawls and wrestling in the streets of villages where authority was disputed. "Zhang's denouncement is probably the closest we're going to get to a declaration of war on Cao Kun. Either he does something."

Or he doesn't.

Japan's minister had said he was trying to get Zhang back to the table... but the problem with circular telegrams going around was they invited responses from other gentlemen... and Wu had responded on more than one occasion. Zhili and Fengtien had officers both stirring the pot now, even if it had been strictly local commanders in the south...the dispute over who should administer Shanghai, "I'm not comfortable not throwing up some kind of blocking force on the railway north." Which would look very much like Xian was siding with Cao without actually declaring for him."

"Our 15 cm field guns were within range of the city when the pony tail general put Puyi back on the throne, you want me to move those," He jerked his head to the new 'New Service Standards' the 155mm caliber 39, "Up. Three rounds a minute," In the rapid fire that doctrine prescribed before accessing effectiveness, " nearly twenty miles of range anything stupid enough to stand in the open gets what they get."

That was the other advantage. Two divisions and troops from supporting brigades across a narrow defensive frontage maximized their fighting power by a weight in artillery and logistics to keep fighting. If Zhang broke out into the north china plain and moved south he'd be on basically open farmland, out in the open... much as Zhu had been before he'd fallen back into Baoding proper in 1917.
--
Notes: I personally, having recently reread the primary sources i have access to (mostly telegrams) suspect the last stop before Fengtien Zhili was unavoidable was actually probably back in May or possibly even July Zhang used the excuse of the conflict (kiangsu) over Shanghai as the reason for war, but he also laid out a long list of other grievances... yes a few days after this snippet is set he calls for a conference to confirm he has the political support from his officers... but by spring of1924 he knew was going to war, and by summer he was committed and the only potential way to stop that was if something had derailed that.

Japan tried to get Zhang to back off, and for there to be a conference ove r Shanghai, but Shanghai was ultimately an excuse. Zhang wanted a rematch against Wu to rehabilitate or vindicate his reputation as a general, and ultimately Feng switching sides didn't accomplish that... but we will get to that later.

Here, Xian isbasically reiterating... functionally all of its territorial gains since Duan Qirui came to power as premier during WW1. It perceives a need to reiterate where its territorial boundaries, where territorial integrity lies. But, and this is the problem, Zhang honestly likely has no actual quarrel with Xian here, Manchuria as apolitical entity doesn't care... Zhang thinks its his turn to have Cao Kun's job, and he has a grudge against Wu Peifu, he doesn't care about Duan Qirui or Sun Yat-sen in this (his nominal allies), this is primarily basically a school yard scuffle writ large to him. This is in many respects a feudal conflict with modern weapons. [Xian / the cadre don't have a solution to answering how to stop that from being a problem because so much of the bureacracy even in the beiyang is based on direct patronage and local military strength]

 

[Imperator Pax]

15th ​September 1924
Allen scowled which a gesture mirrored by various other officers in the room under the harshness of the electric lights. Jun had remarked it was a Jiazhi year, which did not worry him per se... he wasn't even sure that idea of the long calendar cycle impacted Zhang Tsolin's decision making... but it might have... and people might ascribe that to his motivations regardless. If Cao Kun beat off the Manchurians a second time... or third if you wanted to count 1917... there would be arguments from the Zhili clique as well about what the year meant.

Intelligence had known that Zhang had been moving troops to staging positions yes. "Maybe the asshole thought he was being considerate by waiting until after the festival." Dawes snarked to his right before putting a mug of precious, hot, dark coffee down on the table for him... a cup that Dawes sounded like he needed to drink.

There was no question that Zhang was going to do it. No trains had run the day before, or the day before that which had been the most obvious sign that something was 'bad / wrong'. Yet they had still gone to the festival, and men including himself had gone to spend time with their families. Now though from the telegrams, and telephones they knew that Zhang was preparing to move... that he intended to cross the border.

The recall order, including information passed from the Japanese diplomatic staff and the military attache in Mukden had been the warning. Japan's attempts at putting this to a conference had failed and that had meant a movement by train to bring men back and forward. That was why Dawes was here in person and Waite had rotated back to Zhengzhou with this week.

Zhang had gone to officers... held a conference and asked if there was any dissent on the motion to actually go to war. How pro forma that was was being debated, and within the cadre that would have been the final opportunity for officers to make recommendations to change plans inconsideration for any potential issues to an operations order... but Zhang had also probably been making sure he had the support of the men carrying the load of commanding men directly.

"It was probably a mistake to grant weekend passes."

"We took Tokyo's assurances." Cullen replied to Dawes's statement, "And we also took Zhang's assurance that his grievance is Cao Kun's overreach. Waite can complain about it, but if we had a proper diplomatic staff a foreign office or whatever you want to call it we wouldn't be the ones taking calls." And if there for someone in the middle had been there to take the calls and pass them along the bureaucracy would insulate choices. "But if Zhang attacked on the holiday, especially after saying he wouldn't it'd be a blood bath."

Allen had taken the train back to Xian to be at home over the weekend. About a third of the men had been given passes to do the same, the men who didn't have watch duty or some other tasking had been allowed to take passes and go into the city here. "We'd have had to rush men back though." In the Philippines in 1902 they'd been let loose on leave despite concerns about insurrectionists potentially causing trouble, the colonel had let them spend hot summer weekend out among the locals convinced things would be fine, "Cole's right, if we had ignored those assurances we have looked as if we intended to do something, and our troops might have assumed that as well, and might well have pushed us into an escalatory cycle if we got a repeat of 1917." When of course the Manchu Restoration had popped off at troops who had then returned fire, pressing the cadre to mobilize against the Restoration of the boy Emperor Puyi by the pony tail general.

On the other hand the Marshal of Manchuria hd not gone so far as to directly askXian to confirm its neutrality. Manchuria's position was that Zhanghad a grievance with Wu Pei-fu and the tyrannical overreach by the federal government in intruding upon the rights... etc etc. The words were typical, boilerplate of the hundreds of conflicts since the fall of the old dynasty those arguments had been made in circulars thousands of times. There was nothing at all original about it, the names changed in them but the jist remained.

"He's going to hit eastern Zhili, does he actually go for Baoding?"

"He has to, the military academy there is strategically significant." Which was an understatement, it wasn't just a military significance. Baoding was a cultural institution within the Beiyang army and almost every officer in the Beiyang clique as it had existed under Yuan Shikai had attended it. That schoolboy fraternity was important socially... Percy would have probably compared the school to Eton, or some such.

In 1917 the coup had seized Baoding. The push further south had brought the manchurian forces into direct conflict with the cadre... probably by accident. That had been a different manchurian clique though than than the contemporary Fengtian clique. That didn't stop the possibility that someone would get excited, or that less charitably that a push down the railway wouldn't be mounted to open up the rail line south... as had apparently been the plan in 1917 without broader consideration by Zhang Xun's subordinates of what might happen.

"Shan," The XO turned away from the map he was focused on. "Order 10th ​division to join alongside 1st​, and put our," First Corp's allocated, "Albatrosses aloft for reconnaissance flights, you can officially schedule those flights through the end of the month."

Cole eyed him as the order was added to the book. "We can only pretend this is a normal summer drill so long," and that was funny coming from the general who'd brought a detachment of riverine patrol boats up to participate in the 'absolutely normal drills'.

"Shanghai will have more things to worry about than aircraft being sent up to spot for our artillery given the situation with things," but the larger issue... and the reason to bring the tenth up, and put planes up there was to maximize the warning if something did go south. Developed from Bekker's gun, the autocannon carried by the infantry fighting vehicle had the ability to engage aircraft from the ground... how effective they could traverse was a question but if Little Zhang tried to move his mélange of various aircraft they were at least able to put something relatively mobile there. "Cao is confident Wu can manage things."

"Three field commands, quarter of a million men. Its a fair enough fight on paper." Except that was the problem. Qualitatively Manchuria had the more modern army. "We don't know enough about the situation with the navy, our best understanding there is going to be the Legation," And hope that the USN and Royal Navy were accurate about the situation between the various small squadrons that nominally formed the part of the Beiyang Navy loyal to the Zhili clique. "I say we ignore the entire naval question alone unless the legation," Really Percy, or the American Charge d'affairs, "volunteer the information. Little Zhang is almost certainly going to aim at the railway terminal, and try and secure access south," That meant evicting the Zhili clique from the eastern end of the Great Wall, "If he is there, that puts him well away from us, and I would assume will tie up the majority of his daddy's air force."

The reading was probably sound, and Allen turned to see if Dawes objected to it, as Shan was occupied with the telephone dispatcher. That was mostly geography determining the battle, where you had to fight in order to pass through on to further objectives, but Wu had forces stationed west of Peking north of the capital and Jehol was almost certainly going to be contested, or used a springboard for probes or outright offensive thrusts. "The situation with the navy boys, certainly what happens there, not our business." Dawes concurred, "You'll have to ask Japan about the condition of the railways in Manchuria and the passage of trains south, if those lines are open and carrying troops he will be able to transfer most of the army down by table," By tables of mobilization, "And then we will be looking at half a million men fighting on the outskirts of Peking, which will cause panic, and if either side breaks, probably a riot."

A decade ago the Europeans had begun the bloodiest conflict humanity had thus known. This didn't seem likely to be so terrible, but it had the potential to be bad nonetheless. The map was an expanse of terrain familiar to every officer in the office, or for that matter across the entirety of the Corp. The fact that they were working from an office reminded them that a decade ago this city had been the original strongpoint of cadre influence and industrial growth, before the move further inland to Xian and the realization of the European war's scope.

1st ​Rifle Division, 1st​ Gendarmes, the 1st​ Civil Affairs Brigade, the 1st​ Dragoons Brigade all were positioned across the terrain of the map. The Dragoons could not actually be used to scout as doctrine suggested they be employed here... not in the bottle of farmland between the two cities. Baoding to the north of them left little in the way of territory to surveil and left the specialists of a brigade intended to scout and check a potential enemy advance basically serving as men on the line, which Allen knew had to be frustrating.

This was the only theater that mattered in the conflict. To the public, Shanghai was a distant city, riven with corruption, negative influence and in the sway of gangsters and other undesirable influences. Zhejiang and Kiangsu arguing over the city elicited derision from Xian's politically active middle class... and that had become in the last two weeks especially an issue as they moved towards the november elections.

That was especially true of the papers here in town that were readily available for troopers to read when they weren't otherwise engaged by the needs of the army. Zhang could dress up this however he wanted...but what that was proving out to do, "It just makes our folks despise him and Cao." Cole remarked gesturing to his own XO, Colonel Ma who had been the officer of the watch the previous weekend. "We're bringing the 10th​ forward, make sure our artillery doesn't get confused. So double check who is on which frequencies, and where possible we're going to want to relay orders by telephone. We're also putting aircraft aloft."

"Is the training going to involve simulated fire?" The colonel questioned, and Shan sent the man in the black jacket a dirty look.

"Nah, we don't want to give Percy the vapors." Cole replied, and he wasn't wrong given the situation, even if it wasn't just foreign observers who might misunderstand live fire drills if the artillery park did open up. "Just make sure the communications tanks," Command tanks, "Have all their equipment and know who is on what channels before the 10th​ is deployed into the line."

"We should complain general about the Manchurian rudeness, disrupting our traditional summer drill is the height of inconsideracy."

"I'll make time for your artillery men if things don't drop into the pot. And if they do, well, they'll have plenty more to handle until the rest of the Corp comes up." Being the National Guard Divisions.

Allen looked at the clock on the wall illuminated by the electric lights over head, "Still not a decent enough hour to be calling folks for answers yet." He mostly was grumbling to himself on that account but it was true. The situation was what it as, and the Japanese would be able to tell them which parts of the twenty seven brigades comprising the Manchurian Army were being split into their western force... which would give them a picture of which officers were in charge. It wouldn't meaningfully change what they were equipped with... at least artillery wise. Zhang had mortars and machine guns and most likely all but his reserve troops would have 8mm Mausers of his new model, or the iteration before that. "I expect thats still about eighty to a hundred thousand men." Possibly less but if that were the case than Zhang fighting through the capital's suburbs and still having enough energy to push on to Baoding seemed unlikely unless he faced no resistance... which was unlikely to be the case.

On the other hand it still eliminate him reaching Baoding by rail and there being an incident. 10th would take its place on the eastern flank, and that would allow them to shift troops eastward allowing wider mobility to the units most suited to benefit from that.

--
Notes: Again this is in part to reiterate this is 1924, this is post WW1, but pre frankly where ever you want to draw the line for the various cold war era reforms, which shifted various armed forces into their much more modern institutions. Again, as I've mentioned previously interwar Japan was significantly more forthright in conversations about diplomatically sensitive topics than they perhaps should have been.

Note2 Fengtian and Fengtien are interchangeable historically in most modern english language literature its -an but historically both were used. Fengtien is most commonly still used for the currency that Zhang Tsolin issued up until his death (though it is also used for other manchurian currency).

 

[Imperator Pax]

Thanks for chapter !

It seems,that they try to avoid being pulled into civil war,and for time it could work.I think,that even nobody attack them now,Czang would do that later.
When it happen,your Model 1932 would be used,and,as a result, everybody in world would at least try to copy it.
It is possible,that both France and Italy would use mainly their Semovente instead of regular tanks,and all other armies would use them in smaller numbers,too.
Althought it should not change how WW2 would end.

P.S about coffea,i hear joke song : "Kawa się nadawa,lecz gorzała lepiej działa"
my translation - coffea is good,but moonshine is better !
I bet,that if they drink a little of it,they would not want sleep anymore.

Click to shrink...

So I'm gonna touch on this, cause its tangentially related (you've already beat me to bringing up the Type 4, and I'll touch on that in a minute as well) and someone else brought up a good point this morning. The contemporary culture of the time inside of inside the Army of any institution really is important because and this is especially true of doctrine set down after ww1 (I've referenced this before, but here we're talking about the British especially but also France, and the US, wrote their official histories of the war and what was to be learned) there remained a significant degree of institutional inertia. This shapes what gets adopted and when

We'll take France there are political factors which curtail the French republic from adequately preparing for WW2. France was economically broken, and politically stable, it didn't help that DeGaulle and Petain shared political talking points to the point that it worried the French establishment that there would be a right wing coup in the twenties, and I have to expect that fear was redoubled once Franco Franco-ed and started the Spanish Civil War.

Similarly Mussolini still had a parliament in Italy where he routinely had to tolerate opposition opinions, coupled with budgetary constraints. This is why both Italy and France do not successfully transition to their new modern service cartridges the new Carcano and the new 7mm MAS admittedly yes the French started sooner and made better progress the Lebel (in part due to the PF being in power) was still in use.

When we actually get to the M1932, and i've highlighted this before, the British question (and the British obviously have the most exposure to Xian's industrial and military development, largely because the US simply don't care during this period, the state department / administrations are incredibly hands off) question why it doesn't have any machine guns... and this is because Britain vis a vis Fuller and other tank proponents have laid out sweeping theoretically ideas of tank warfare and maneuver and so on but also the push back from that from Cavalry and Infantry lays down the notion that the tanks must support the infantry.

The other complaint for the 1932, and Xian's tank development late interwar, is the weight of them. Its not so much the engine, during peace time, in the interwar years the automotive industry can produce engines for the tanks, but bridging requirements and transport is a problem. So long term 1940 yeah Japan eventually does Type 4, the Ho-NI III, and similar medium tanks earlier. THe ground work that makes that possible though is the greater Japanese investment in Manchuria, and Siberia. The same for experience in 32/33 with aircraft where Japan's army aviation on the continent (this was historical) found limitations in engine power and demanded a solution, which eventualy manifested (but here will come sooner because of pressure and competition).

Having looked at French procurement while I doubt they would look at China especially the Char B1 was originally intended to be basically a semovente (short 75mm howitzer SPG) specifically because it could be done to save money, a Char SPG would have been cheaper than the actual B1 because it would be simpler to manufacture. Again the problem here with France is spinning up production and getting the budget to do it given the political and economic costs of the 1st World War and the economic hardship created by protectionism and tariffs post war. Thats a structural problem and France's colonial empire means it can't not have a navy which adds to the issue.

And the lesson from WW1 is basically a lot of people died trying shit that didn't work, which is again the IJA did not contribute troops to WW1, and the official General Staff position on the war in Europe was bayonet charges would overcome defenses. Again this goes to doctrine, this is seemingly reinforced by lessons in China, especially in South China in the interwar period against low morale units. There was a modernization faction within the army historically but they were repeatedly sidelined and in Japanese contexts the navy dominates the discussion of decisive battle (cherry pick mahan and ignore the bits that don't support the argument) but the army did believe to a limitted extent that a set piece battle was key to winning a war, now some of this was insistence on economics. Japan can't afford to mobilize for long periods of time, it would be too expensive (Yamagata Aritomo seems to have held this position, but also he was of an older generation and square divisions made more sense when he was in active command... also he dies in the early 20s) other generals continued to use that rationale but graduated from the Staff College that insisted on concealing to regular students details about the Russo-Japanese war, and to teach that doctrine of basically Japanese elan vitale

Which brings us to how Japan does eventually start to modernize after the start of WW2. Yamagata Iseburo is currently in the current period of the story serving as de facto viceroy of Japanese held Siberia. Originally the Japanese had intended for the Japanese Far East HQ would have entailed adding Japanese Siberia into managing the Kwantung Area (north china area HQ) and Iseburo would have been in charge of both. Historically he did briefly head Kwantung (much as he had previously been a manager of Korea) here the Diet basically goes ... thats a terrible idea we would be concentrating entirely too much authority in two area that have already shown they'll ignore Tokyo GHQ when they feel like it. (Tokyo GHQ ;had previously attempted to censure the Kwantung HQ on more than one occasion). Iseburo currently is the only Japanese leadership figure with a major field victory against a peer opponent that in the last ten years, and his nearest competitors for that claim are all from the Russo Japanese war.

This is why thats important, Iseburo is a modernizer, his father Aritomo was a traditionalist, but Iseburo was expressly chosen by Yamagata Aritomo as his heir and Aritomo was basically the father of the Army, and the Japanese state system. This is point one. Point two Iseburo had previously demonstrated (IIRC pre Russo-Japanese war) a willingness to collapse a government if they wouldn't support his infrastructure programs he wanted more funding for Japan's railways... then the Russo Japanese war happens, Aritomo goes to war, the IJA makes a lot of propaganda, and Iseburo gets brought in to over see in particular the build out of Korea's industries and then WW1 happens.

Here Iseburo takes command vis a vis his authority as IG in the Far East and baits the Red Army to attack Irkutsk in the battle of the Lakes which the cadre explitcly compares to one of the worst turkey shoots of the American Civil War for a reason. This is even more important, because Aritomo intentionally sent Iseburo into the bureaucracy rather than in the IJA, now did Iseburo already have supporters inside the IJA at this point yes, he had supporters from the Korea HQ, and from the North China Area HQ historically, he inherited supporters after Aritomo passed, he had ties to active generals in the IJA up until his dead.

That victory basically allows him to espouse a modernizer clique position, without anyone being allowed to contradict him. Aritomo could have, but Aritomo was rabidly anti bolshevik at the end and had been worried about Round 2 with the Tsar prior to WW1 anyway. So the IJA GHQ and IJA Staff is willing to look the other way and allow Siberia to get away with things much like they were willing to look the other way on some things for the Kwantung...

Fast forward to the late thirties. Iseburo has passed away, his modernizer clique looses some ground because of that, but there is still the prevailing consensus in the army a war with the soviet union is inevitable, but that the navy is still doggedly insisting on their rights and perogatives as well (which is what eventually gets Japan attacking Pearl, but we're not there yet). The Kwantung army is not in a position to actually try and start a fight with the Soviets because of the border division, however the leadership is of the opinion it can support Zhang and Puyi as a figurehead to basically unify China if Chiang won't a deal (a deal that would turn china into a Japanese/kwantung puppet state)

This starts the 2nd Sino Japanese war with the accept traditional orthodox doctrine of the IJA on paper. GHQ tries to reel them in, that fails. The situation escalates the North Group Army hits Zhili and gets bogged down into WW1 era fighting where as the Southern China Group Army meets the NRA at Shanghai, and the latter scores repeated mobile victories in part because of bottling up Chiangs best troops at Shanghai and because of support from the IJN, and Chiang retreats (you get Nanking and the water defense, etc) Japan uses that to justify why it should expect that the war will soon end in their favor.

The problem remains the north, which is more industrialized and had been turned into the western front ala WW1 which the IJA's square divisions are getting fed into a meat grinder over because in the name of interwar budget constraints the idea of the bayonet charge, and other dated ideas about mobility is now causing problems at home. There is only so much here that the IJA can blame on reservists (which was historically their go to explanation to any problems within the army system). Hirohito asks for explanation. The army equivocates and promises that the war won't go on much longer... but is now very much in a situation it did not want to be in to begin with. Tokyo GHQ had not supported the Kwantung Army to begin with, and the Kwantung HQ blames the GHQ for that lack of support and now there is international pressure in the system.

The war in the north and south both trade ground for time and settle into an attritional stalemate where Japan is either in active conflict across a defensive envelop in the north (trench warfare and artillery) or simply doesn't have the ability to project troops further inland due to limitted resources in the south. i.e the roads are terrible and railroads into the interior are nonexistent. Tokyo GHQ is pushed by the Emperor to find a solution because Japan is actually casualty shy at this point in time (historically casualties from China actually sparked riots in some districts) the Kwantung army blames the General Staff for not supporting them again (this is historical) you get the string of various prime ministers and the war in Europe starts. Army Group South secures political cover by eating French IndoChina. the Kwantung is pushed into a position where it has to hold ground in 1940 and the result pulls troops from Siberia under Far East HQ which insists its still in command of its own troops this means what are basically triangle divisions start appearing on the front allowing the Japanese to hold their positions.


Tokyo GHQ lets this happen, Tojo is already in the wings when barbarossa occurs, Tojo becomes PM Pearl Harbor happens. Tojo as a compromise between the modernizers and the traditionalists agrees to a 'two path solution' basically continuing Konoe's compromise solution but giving it official sanction

Now this is fairly long, I'll admit and I don't want to spoil what things look like army wise, but Far East HQ and Kwantung HQ both eventually attempt to transition to 8mm Mauser rifles for various reasons, mostly its logistics because by the time of Two Paths being accepted as doctrine the 7.7 is brand new and 6.5 Arisaka is still abundant. The result is that Mukden basically becomes the Japanese Army Tank City, transferring from making tankettes to eventually the in universe equivalent to Type4 and Ho Ni III SpGs which is great for the China campaign (for Japan) but it still runs into the limitation of supporting Japanese shipping and transport in the Pacific

and ironically this is an abridged overview of IJA development in universe
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EDIT: Addendum regarding France, and Italy, apparently both of them in the early 20s (1924) for the Italians discussed procurement of tanks as self propelled guns Semovente first appears, the Original; Char B1 concept for the French.

 

[Imperator Pax]

Late September 1924
Allen surveyed at the troops in place along the unmarked border between 'Western' and 'Eastern' provinces. Silently contemplating what this would do to their own studies, their own population's opinions. Overhead the aircraft made themselves known with the signature of their engines, the buzz, more practically than anything else they carried up therewith them the Albatross's radios communicated with ground positions of what could be observed high above them.

There had been the surprise as Zhang had broken out into China proper observed regarding his apparently Italian... and possibly domestically manufactured copies of... copies of the French Renault. Not in firepower, but rather in its overlanding speed. The Japanese were apparently impressed, even if all Zhang the younger was doing was moving them as mobile pillboxes... which had potentially been the advice of the Italians.

The point stood that the reports filtering to them was a picture regarding the application of tanks in a fight today. ETS Companies outfitted with the latest combat cars were deployed, men waiting impatiently forward of the main line. Waiting for an enemy that would have to breakthrough into the suburbs north of Peking before they had anything to do... but that was part of the job.

That didn't make sitting here any less tedious for them. So they waited.

The Dragoons had a mix of newer finalized caliber guns, and the original iteration of the 20mm Bekker guns Xian had selected as interim replacement for the dated 1PDRs with a more accurate longer ranged weapon. :Even that had been a logistical hurdle by the Quartermasters to manage on time to pull old guns and replacement in the brigade which had still been using the old guns for training purposes over the past year.

It represented the continuous process of improvement and evaluation... more than the four years of it since the constitution had come into effect... but the constitution had changed the way army finances were structured. In the autumn of 1923 that had coalesced with the conclusion to stepladder development.

"These boys are going to be a handful next year." Cole joked looking out across the field works with a well serviced sixty power spotting scope. The suburban expanse of Baoding, and particularly the length of the rail line running north into the city prominent from the hill they stood on.

When they would actually begin pushing up the full strength Cavalry ETS formation, rather than just mechanized 'mounted' infantry. The idea had still borrowed heavily from Cullen's table of 1923, but the majority of the brigade were armed with the 1920 Rifle and the standard Lewis Gun. The cars that carried them were almost entirely open topped fitting either a belt fed Colt Browning for the more common carriers, and supplemented by Bekker SEMAG models in others. "Next year we will be able to fit them out as more than just Mounted Rifles." Which some members of 1st​ Regiment had already complained were what they were anyway... but they needed to be trialing and testing new units... and this was had been deemed the most effective method of preparing men for the shift over. "Right now we just need to make sure they don't go too stir crazy waiting to see if something does come across the line." There was nothing here for them to scout, so they couldn't even try and implement theoretical doctrine which left them serving as additional bodies.

The Brigade also had to contend with lighter artillery but with 10th​ on hand that actually made things less of a concern. It also gave them another full strength division to rely on. "Half a million men fighting is a lot to keep track of though." and even though the fighting mostly focused north east of Peking particularly around the Great Wall... there were other problems

Nearest was unrest in Peking itself; mostly students but some grumbling from the middle class professionals. Further away though was the accepted cassus belli of the whole conflict the Zhili ambitions upon the administration of Shanghai. Under the effectively defunct Anhui clique Shanghai had been more or less left alone... if Sun Chuanfang did manage to exert control and dispossess the clique that might change. It probably wouldn't, but the handwringing from the bund was raucous now at this stage.

It frankly made them look ridiculous... but it also allowed Sun's messaging to circulate both in Shanghai and up in Peking which was making the rounds, for instance in the North China Herald. "Do you think Sun could force a railway strike?"

"Force one," Cole shook his head, "no, take credit for one certainly. I don't see him actually being able to start one," But if he endorsed one that started in Shanghai then it could expand... potentially the point of stymieing the Zhili clique's ability to mobilize other troops. "But given the talks of a boycott as it is, thats going to make the bund more squirmish not less." Because it would start hitting them in the pocketbook. "Which will make them complain more."

In 1917 in order to quell the fighting ... more by intimidation than actually action...Duan had mustered a coalition of fifty thousand Beiyang troops. In 1922 when Zhang had first locked horns with Wu total troops between Fengtian and Zhili had run about a quarter of million men. Two years, roughly thirty months down the road from that fight both Zhili and Fengtian were putting that in the field.

Unlike last time5th​ and 6th​ Brigades were with the division they had been developed to support. They were sitting with 3rd​Division in the south at the defensive cordon based from the white mountain range headquarters probably equally bored out of their goddamned minds. "Shan suspects we will need to adjust planning. If Zhang fails here, and maintains power in Manchuria... or even if he doesn't and some one else in Manchuria steps up then a threat from the north seems plausible."

Zhang Xun had done it in 1917 after all. "Is that Ma's advice," Referring to Cullen's recently selected executive officer. "That we will continue to look at a challenge from Manchuria to impose leadership over the government in Peking?"

"I think his concern is more the inadequacy of the leadership in Peking thats the problem, allowing the colonel doesn't like Wellington," Koo, the Foreign Minister, "in the slightest." Which frankly was now a common complaint, Koo... too frequently tried to straddle a middle of the road position... it had elicited complaints north southeast and west, even when the man had a point. It was too easy to hit Woo for having been in the Beiyang government as long as he had but who didn't have the advantage of troops of his own. "I think he was angry when Koo was put in as prime minister," never mind that the instability of that office, "and giddy when they replaced him." The day when Zhang had gone to lead his troops to the front... which had mostly been a ceremonial sort of thing to begin with. "I'll give you he's impatient, but impetuousness is a family flaw I'm given to understand."

Allen snorted unscrewed his canteen and took a sip of the water, checking his wristwatch before looking over the terrain again. He shrugged, "As it sits, Zhengzhou remains a point of concern right now." Eighth Division was sitting in the south officially at Qinghai, the Ninth at Urumqi. Fifth division, and a handful of National Guard Infantry brigades sat in the southern portion of their half of Zhili to protect Zhengzhou having been called up and had their summer drill extended.

6th​and 7th​ Divisions husbanded as a reserve were being held back with wait and see caution. "The fiscal conservatives are going to take a hit in the polls. Yan has said that Taiyuan," he actually meant the province, but since Cadre membership didn't preclude holding other offices Yan was also governor of the province in question, "could if it needed to support a hundred thousand reservists," Which was something he had said before. "And while he's fiscally conservative that detail has not escaped the folks who want a larger army..." And obviously Zhili, and Fengtian especially throwing a quarter of a million men into the field... contributing the majority of their troops to a perceived titanic, destined reshaping of the status quo required. "And lets be honest. Yuan Shikai wanted half a million men because it was a number that was manageable at a national level not because it would meet requirements to defend the country at large."

... and that was the limiting factor of ten divisions. The east west breadth that Xian's governance stretched across... from here in Western Zhili to the border with Kirghiz with Xinjiang in the far west through kansu... and with elections in just a couple of months Zhang had pushed what would have ordinarily been a second or third order issue much farther forward in the public consciousness.

Not that this would harm the Old Marshal personally, but it would shape the direction of the electorate in 1926, and then in the following elections of 1928... but that was in the future. "And the government was hemorrhaging money worse than it is now." The national debt was still a problem for China, but it was not nearly as bad as things had stood when the Old Dynasty had finally given up, and Yuan Shikai had become president, "Well regardless we should be getting back," He declared looking towards the forward observers manning other parts of the redoubt, "The Bund's fussing for the moment is taking up attention, Sun," the southern doctor, not Sun the actual General, the one in the Zhili clique, "causing a riot, boycott or strike will cause more trouble than any of the troops he can probably put into the field but I still want to know what he can put in the field."

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Notes: Here 1st ​Dragoons, is still basically a Rifle Brigade. It has not converted to its Cavalry Brigade configuration as it will fight the Northern Expedition. Hence this segment reiterating Mounted Rifle Infantry...this goes to doctrine and equipment as Xian expands its build out phase ahead of Cavalry becoming its own branch. What this is is the demonstration of the trend we saw start for Xian in 1922

But also, four years after the Constitution has come into effect, Xian is running into the issue of its actual geographic breadth. Xian is by geography the largest of the three major factions, with Manchuria the smallest. Note this does not in 1924 include any of southern china, for reasons we touch with Sun's Northern Expedition of 1924, and more broadly the atomization of authority rampant across southern china most epitomized by the status Sichuan province