Summer 1919
Imperator Pax
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Summer 1919
Allen surveyed the papers in front of him. He had already tossed the North China Herald to Percy.
"You know historically Parliament wasn't paid. It was the expectation that as a gentlemen you were capable of sustaining yourself and your household without burdening the government."
"Yeah," He replied, and put the paper up, "Its also why we got the sandwich." He added.
"Pardon?"
"Lord Sandwich wasn't a particularly wealthy man." He licked his fingertips and separated a sheet, "Never mind that, what brings you?" The war was over... well the war in the west was over, and given the unpleasantness with John Jordan over his fool arms embargo things had been tense the last couple of months.
Percy dithered, not responding immediately "As you might well be aware certain details of certain acts of gallantry," He looked over the edge of the steel report, that Allen had picked up leaving the Shanghai paper aside, "have been reported upon in the papers, and in society, but also well the reports of certain Bolshevik schemes, and other grave crimes perpetrated by the likes of Lenin and his conspirators. It has, those publications of the intention to murder not simply Nicholas the second but his entire family and their household and the intention to conceal it has the attention of both our own people as well as those of our allies."
Allen leaned back... a moment considering if the dithering was a shot back for the sandwich comment or if he was just running off at the mouth in order to try and read the papers on the table or something else entirely. "What's eating you, Perce?" He reached for his mug of tea.
"John Jordan has been apprised of your war gaming plans, and the exercises expected to accompany them."
"Yes?" and, he shook his head, "What else?"
"You haven't expressed a notion towards demobilization. The war is over."
"No Percy, its not. France and Germany might have stopped fighting, but Szechwan is sixty five million people," Probably, give or take some "split about six ways depending on who all is in charge of any given area this month." Never mind all the little small slivers of the province that were oh so helpfully on the frontiers, which made keeping track of who all was supposed to be in charge a headache.
Szechwan was too fragmented to make easy predictions of, and if something did give and coherent leadership developed they were going to need to be able to rely on regular infantry to defend approaches into the provinces. That meant inexpensive reliable rifles, artillery, and machine guns, but it also meant more divisions based along defensive frontage designed to stop any swarm of manpower that the likes of say Chen Xialing or Xiong Kewu could throw. There was a reason they had 3rd under Lee facing Chen who was sitting is the szechwan marches.
Percy wasn't readily prepared for that, but it didn't matter.
The 'real problem' with the legation wasn't really the exercises per se. It was that from John Jordan's perspective that the Xian's military forces were not readily being constrained in their growth by his boneheaded attempt to interfere with global trade... and if Allen were to speculated he suspected that someone in Guandong and someone in Harbin were probably beating their heads on the same wall.
Then of course there was Duan's WPA getting Japanese rifles, in clear obvious flaunting of the Japanese agreement or at least whoever at the legation who John Jordan had brow beat into agreeing to the document back in may. John Jordan's problem was he was trying to keep surplus arms flowing and was just artificially inflating their prices... or also just encouraging domestic manufacture.
Domestic manufacturing which had been nurtured by the European war.
The British problem was well John Jordan expected to be accorded the he had said it so it must be right because he was the British minister sort of position with no regard for actual conditions on the ground. Jordan was just too old, that was clear, the war had taken its toll on him. He was out of touch, which was a pity but it would just have to be worked around until he retired.
"The war between France and Germany is in intermission Percy, but all you have done is kick the can down the road, and the bolsheviks," For all Lenin's professions of friendship with the peasants... the same peasants whose grain he'd steal at first opportunity... well the bolsheviks were almost certainly going to try, Trotsky believed the nonsense he was spouting and fanatics were dangerous because you never knew when they'd do something tremendously stupid.
--
"He doesn't get it does he?"
"To be fair, I don't think anyone in Europe," Maybe anyone at all, "Really understands the amount of money that went into the war." He replied as the sheets circulated around. Unlike the England of Queen Elizabeth China had plenty of forests still... it was just that well there were bandits in hill and dale to deal with... but China didn't lack for coal either... and they had over the last ten years worked out pretty well how to prepare it for coking and then for steelmaking.
In 1915 exports to Europe had no longer been inexpensive trinkets, or luxury ceramics... not that they'd really been involved in the later but that was the change, the voracious demands of the war had seen treasure pour out of France, Russia, and England to sustain them. They had never taken the position that the pound was worthless, but it had been rather clear that given even what they'd purchased before the war, that if England was being loaned greenbacks, it was better that England pay them in dollars.
The English ... were well finicky about the reality of needing to buy things, and about spending money... but they had all figured that congress had to have gotten that from someone and parliament not want to talk about the sundries of finance made sense. That the Chinese had had their own equivalent in textiles to the putting out system had been taken note of but perhaps the reason it had never made the transition was that it dealt in silk and not cotton or woolens... the demand for textiles to equip an army, the increased demand for metals.
Both of those all factories meant an increased demand in industrial sectors, and power generation, electrical power. That had been part of the reason they had hoped to turn to hydroelectric power, and to build dams because... well it would have been a means of river control to partially address problems with the canal system to the east.
"That's true." There was a glance around, "But we are in recognition of the facts?"
There were no objections from the men who actually had the original shares.
Incomes were going to decline, because there were going , they were already exporting less goods to Europe. There just wasn't the demand now. Domestic consumption, in house consumption for new construction would make up some of that, but they were going to have to reduce production. That wasn't just about keep prices moderated, because reducing production would increase overall cost per volume in some cases. They needed to avoid depressing market prices by excess supply.
They'd be able to excuse some of that by taking mills off line for overhaul and upgrading, especially with access to European and experts from the states particularly for looking at automobile production, but that also went to they'd be spending more in the short term.
Domestic production of the rails and the engines had been a cost, and time consideration, even before the European war had driven overseas prices of those assets through the roof. Yuan had wanted business assets like a steel mill in Zhili but it had taken time to set that up. Ironically Yuan had gone into retirement as governor of the province after the old buddha had died, and then come back the Qing prime minister just in time to see the end of the Empire by the time they had finished that first mill.
As they had attempted to be clear on, the principal advantages were structural. Technology, Expertise, and Capital. That hadn't changed. The difference now was that since 1914 there had been a developing Chinese managerial class who had come up from the ground floor who had seen the build up of the firms' newer factories.
... "Then the last thing is final drafts, and we finish with the lawyers we aim to get Ford's people over here and then interchangeable parts and mass production." Peace, prosperity through industry that was the idea, that was the byline to talks. That was the message on internal papers talking about moving to domestic production and improving quality of life for the inter urbans on the expectation that the military challenges were largely limited to the southern frontier with Szechwan and that that could be managed.
--
Notes: So by about July of 1919 we do start seeing complaints out of the legation in Tietsin from Jordan, and Reinsch's offices respectively that people are ignoring the embargo set in May. The firms who in particular did this were Japanese purchasing agents who went to Europe and turned around and sold weapons into north and south China. The French, the Italians would also do this, Vickers would come in latter (I haven't seen anything that early state Vickers was involved yet, but they did start doing it and that started a row in the FSO, which is its own comedy), but the embargo, and specifically Jordan as head of the import commission made it annoying enough that very few people were willing to get involved given there were still some war time restrictions on shipping and that most shipping went through british or american merchant number 3 being Japan.
Allen surveyed the papers in front of him. He had already tossed the North China Herald to Percy.
"You know historically Parliament wasn't paid. It was the expectation that as a gentlemen you were capable of sustaining yourself and your household without burdening the government."
"Yeah," He replied, and put the paper up, "Its also why we got the sandwich." He added.
"Pardon?"
"Lord Sandwich wasn't a particularly wealthy man." He licked his fingertips and separated a sheet, "Never mind that, what brings you?" The war was over... well the war in the west was over, and given the unpleasantness with John Jordan over his fool arms embargo things had been tense the last couple of months.
Percy dithered, not responding immediately "As you might well be aware certain details of certain acts of gallantry," He looked over the edge of the steel report, that Allen had picked up leaving the Shanghai paper aside, "have been reported upon in the papers, and in society, but also well the reports of certain Bolshevik schemes, and other grave crimes perpetrated by the likes of Lenin and his conspirators. It has, those publications of the intention to murder not simply Nicholas the second but his entire family and their household and the intention to conceal it has the attention of both our own people as well as those of our allies."
Allen leaned back... a moment considering if the dithering was a shot back for the sandwich comment or if he was just running off at the mouth in order to try and read the papers on the table or something else entirely. "What's eating you, Perce?" He reached for his mug of tea.
"John Jordan has been apprised of your war gaming plans, and the exercises expected to accompany them."
"Yes?" and, he shook his head, "What else?"
"You haven't expressed a notion towards demobilization. The war is over."
"No Percy, its not. France and Germany might have stopped fighting, but Szechwan is sixty five million people," Probably, give or take some "split about six ways depending on who all is in charge of any given area this month." Never mind all the little small slivers of the province that were oh so helpfully on the frontiers, which made keeping track of who all was supposed to be in charge a headache.
Szechwan was too fragmented to make easy predictions of, and if something did give and coherent leadership developed they were going to need to be able to rely on regular infantry to defend approaches into the provinces. That meant inexpensive reliable rifles, artillery, and machine guns, but it also meant more divisions based along defensive frontage designed to stop any swarm of manpower that the likes of say Chen Xialing or Xiong Kewu could throw. There was a reason they had 3rd under Lee facing Chen who was sitting is the szechwan marches.
Percy wasn't readily prepared for that, but it didn't matter.
The 'real problem' with the legation wasn't really the exercises per se. It was that from John Jordan's perspective that the Xian's military forces were not readily being constrained in their growth by his boneheaded attempt to interfere with global trade... and if Allen were to speculated he suspected that someone in Guandong and someone in Harbin were probably beating their heads on the same wall.
Then of course there was Duan's WPA getting Japanese rifles, in clear obvious flaunting of the Japanese agreement or at least whoever at the legation who John Jordan had brow beat into agreeing to the document back in may. John Jordan's problem was he was trying to keep surplus arms flowing and was just artificially inflating their prices... or also just encouraging domestic manufacture.
Domestic manufacturing which had been nurtured by the European war.
The British problem was well John Jordan expected to be accorded the he had said it so it must be right because he was the British minister sort of position with no regard for actual conditions on the ground. Jordan was just too old, that was clear, the war had taken its toll on him. He was out of touch, which was a pity but it would just have to be worked around until he retired.
"The war between France and Germany is in intermission Percy, but all you have done is kick the can down the road, and the bolsheviks," For all Lenin's professions of friendship with the peasants... the same peasants whose grain he'd steal at first opportunity... well the bolsheviks were almost certainly going to try, Trotsky believed the nonsense he was spouting and fanatics were dangerous because you never knew when they'd do something tremendously stupid.
--
"He doesn't get it does he?"
"To be fair, I don't think anyone in Europe," Maybe anyone at all, "Really understands the amount of money that went into the war." He replied as the sheets circulated around. Unlike the England of Queen Elizabeth China had plenty of forests still... it was just that well there were bandits in hill and dale to deal with... but China didn't lack for coal either... and they had over the last ten years worked out pretty well how to prepare it for coking and then for steelmaking.
In 1915 exports to Europe had no longer been inexpensive trinkets, or luxury ceramics... not that they'd really been involved in the later but that was the change, the voracious demands of the war had seen treasure pour out of France, Russia, and England to sustain them. They had never taken the position that the pound was worthless, but it had been rather clear that given even what they'd purchased before the war, that if England was being loaned greenbacks, it was better that England pay them in dollars.
The English ... were well finicky about the reality of needing to buy things, and about spending money... but they had all figured that congress had to have gotten that from someone and parliament not want to talk about the sundries of finance made sense. That the Chinese had had their own equivalent in textiles to the putting out system had been taken note of but perhaps the reason it had never made the transition was that it dealt in silk and not cotton or woolens... the demand for textiles to equip an army, the increased demand for metals.
Both of those all factories meant an increased demand in industrial sectors, and power generation, electrical power. That had been part of the reason they had hoped to turn to hydroelectric power, and to build dams because... well it would have been a means of river control to partially address problems with the canal system to the east.
"That's true." There was a glance around, "But we are in recognition of the facts?"
There were no objections from the men who actually had the original shares.
Incomes were going to decline, because there were going , they were already exporting less goods to Europe. There just wasn't the demand now. Domestic consumption, in house consumption for new construction would make up some of that, but they were going to have to reduce production. That wasn't just about keep prices moderated, because reducing production would increase overall cost per volume in some cases. They needed to avoid depressing market prices by excess supply.
They'd be able to excuse some of that by taking mills off line for overhaul and upgrading, especially with access to European and experts from the states particularly for looking at automobile production, but that also went to they'd be spending more in the short term.
Domestic production of the rails and the engines had been a cost, and time consideration, even before the European war had driven overseas prices of those assets through the roof. Yuan had wanted business assets like a steel mill in Zhili but it had taken time to set that up. Ironically Yuan had gone into retirement as governor of the province after the old buddha had died, and then come back the Qing prime minister just in time to see the end of the Empire by the time they had finished that first mill.
As they had attempted to be clear on, the principal advantages were structural. Technology, Expertise, and Capital. That hadn't changed. The difference now was that since 1914 there had been a developing Chinese managerial class who had come up from the ground floor who had seen the build up of the firms' newer factories.
... "Then the last thing is final drafts, and we finish with the lawyers we aim to get Ford's people over here and then interchangeable parts and mass production." Peace, prosperity through industry that was the idea, that was the byline to talks. That was the message on internal papers talking about moving to domestic production and improving quality of life for the inter urbans on the expectation that the military challenges were largely limited to the southern frontier with Szechwan and that that could be managed.
--
Notes: So by about July of 1919 we do start seeing complaints out of the legation in Tietsin from Jordan, and Reinsch's offices respectively that people are ignoring the embargo set in May. The firms who in particular did this were Japanese purchasing agents who went to Europe and turned around and sold weapons into north and south China. The French, the Italians would also do this, Vickers would come in latter (I haven't seen anything that early state Vickers was involved yet, but they did start doing it and that started a row in the FSO, which is its own comedy), but the embargo, and specifically Jordan as head of the import commission made it annoying enough that very few people were willing to get involved given there were still some war time restrictions on shipping and that most shipping went through british or american merchant number 3 being Japan.
