August 1923
His attention turned away from the papers, even as Colonels and Generals continued to study the ones in front of them. The 1st was ready and mobilized. If something happened they were prepared for it and the men were experienced. They had that advantage over Black Jack even though in numbers while comparable divisions were standing, Black Jack had had more men to work with... as the staff officers here were aware.
Allen signaled to the Staff Officer from the nominal Corp level Intelligence post. The G-2, a freshly minted full bird, collected the papers scrawled with red ink in the margins. Just in time really as the doors opened. Percy's civilian suit stood out among the masses of men in Field Gray jackets, with belted forty fives, Austrian knots on sleeves, and Red Dragons on their collars.
The fall exercise came with significant fanfare from the public. At least their local public, on the coast people were still talking about the outrage of Lincheng.
Tens of thousands of troops mobilized was less of a concern to the other branches of the Beiyang including Zhang Tsolin who of course the year previous had sent a telegram coinciding the mid autumn festival while that year's drill had been wrapping up. Cao Kun in the face of both Zhang's conspicuous production of new mausers had suggested, notably once Li had been ousted, that in the face of the embargo against rifles that Zhili should buy domestically.
It was a circular telegram carried by pro-Zhili clique papers that had predictably spawned supporting articles attributed at least to other Zhili officers. It was also the sort of Beiyang statement that the others wings had had to give lip service to. For Zhang this was easy, talk of buying domestically meant he could look to his own factories. He could even go and stick his hand out to the Federal Government demanding money for 'buying domestically' from factories he himself owned.
That the talk... and also possibly Zhang's own parades... had started back in June.. and even the month before they had largely been 'public discussion'... mostly because all the important horse trading was in response to Li being ousted from the presidency with Gao who had done a little b it of everything in the Beiyang government keeping the seat warm ahead of elections.
The proposal was a dicey one. The cadre had accepted Duan Qirui's terms of collecting fixed taxes from the provinces, which itself had been an evolution of arrangements with Yuan to facilitate moving tax revenue paid by the Ma family in the west, and also those collected by the other western leaders at the time.
The communique had initially been taxpayment in kind. That had been rejected in favor of the present offer which the cadre with withold tax money to be held in escrow and sell rifles and machine guns to the Beiyang Army. What that actually meant was that Cao Kun wanted to basically use the tax revenue the cadre ordinarily paid to buy new rifles and machine guns for the Beiyang3rd Division neatly sidestepping the arms embargo put in by John Jordan.
Which had of course potential consequences all the same despite being wholly domestic trade... despite of course that 'tanks' and airplanes were perfectly viable purchases from abroad under the letter of the Legation Note.
"You're thinking about it."
"Yeah we're thinking about it." He replied to Percy's question, "By the letter of Jordan's nonsense there is nothing to be said. We have had a rifle factory in this country since before the old dynasty fell," He pointed out, though did not specify that had originally been for making remington rolling blocks, Indeed Rolling Blocks that they had then sold to the Tsar's government in 1914/15 desperate to free up arms from things like the postal guards, and railway police in the far east, "that had only after the Republic been declared moved to producing magazine fed repeating rifles. "It isn't an import, and frankly most of the work men are all chinese, most of the foremen and engineers are chinese." Most of the men in the factories who had made rifles and machine guns for the allied war effort had been 'native chinese' as Percy observed. "The Legation would be hard pressed to find any one who could substantiate an interdict to the shipping and sale of them."
"Or that interdiction is at all possible." Shijiazhuang's rifle factory was in western zhili and was a very very short train ride to Baoding's military school, and up the railway further was Peking. No ships were involved. "Cao Kun doesn't have the legal standing to make such a deal."
Percy did not catch, or at least show sign of the looks turning, "Of that, we agree." Allen replied, and that was the hang up, "But if Cao Kun becomes president he would." And there in lay the issue, because Duan Qirui had concluded his deal when he had been head of the Beiyang...and he had used similar means to supply his own forces with modern arms by maneuvering money around sometimes with the support of the cabinet sometimes without their explicit approval. "The deal as it effects tax revenue is not signed, but we have sold Cao Kun rifles before, and we have refurbished his division's tack as well." including his Maxim guns during the White Wolf's Rebellion.
"What about the new railway force they're talking about standing up?" That was another thing One of Yuan's old confidants had been brought on for it, and Percy bringing it up now caused an even more visible stir among the officers in the room, "There is resistance."
"There was bound to be." The Foreign Quarter had tried to push for foreign control of the railways all together. Which... to call controversial was an understatement.
"But there is a problem of brigands. Maybe not here, but here is not the coast. There is no sizable foreign quarter here," Percy stopped. "I mean, in that there is a concession." The problem of bandits on the railway had been the crux of the legation note to Peking, "But, " He pressed forward, "These criminals are not the first to do this. Its happened last year in Honan as well."
"And will probably happen again, but Honan frequently brooks from the Beiyang consensus, and has for a very long time. If Cao Kun, who I will remind you was part of theanti-war side of the Beiyang, were to try and go push Honan's lot into line it would be a nonstarter." Which was an admission that Cao Kun couldn't... not that Li could have. Gao was there to keep the government running day to day not make new policies. "Foreign intervention would be a foolhardy thing to do Percy, you'd get riots and boycots in Shanghai before the ink were dry on the orders." because of course everyone and their mother would know it was going to happen.
Just last year while the Cadre had been busy preparing for the elections to take place, Schurman had cabled both Wu and Feng about missionaries being held hostage by men alleged to be from those Beiyang officers' commands... but that had been nothing to the mess the bandits in Shantung had managed to make in the press. "What would you have done?" Percy who was now well off the topic of selling rifles to Cao Kun's 3rdDivision continued with his question, "If Honan's gentry had seized a train from Zhengzhou? If there had been Americans and missionaries aboard?"
Forget the missionaries, "An attack on a train from Zhengzhou? You should be well aware of what I would have done, Schurman wouldn't have gotten there until after 1st 3rd and 8th," and the statement held attention from officers from all three Rifle Divisions, "had all the old capitals under lock and key." Luoyang and Kaifeng were both in Honan. "I would bring bloody hell with me if Honan's gentry," For the Autonomous Army that had briganded the train from Tietsin had been lead by members of Shantung's wealthy landowners, "had the temerity to think I wouldn't." and though it had never been explicitly put into writing the Lincheng outrage and concerns for existing problems of bandits both in Szechwan and Honan had pushed the Cadre to underscore with greater emphasis the military readiness of the army by expanding summer operations to the first of June.
What had not happened though was that a larger conflict had not followed or unfurled. Li had resigned...admittedly after Feng's men had harassed him into doing so, but Zhili, and Fengtien had not come to blows over his passing from the scene. Gao was probably an acceptable candidate of compromise though that did raise questions of if Cao Kun succeeded to the presidency as was his expressed wish what then.
"Which is what we told," He wasn't clear if Percy was speaking of himself or we as in the British Legation speaking, "Schurman. That the reputation of martial vigor stands to dissuade bandits in Honan." Which did help to explain that Schurman had initially telegramed seemingly everyone of influence as head of the legation, but had begun to narrow his focus as regained some of his bearing.
Schurman had ultimately chosen to send a journalist, an american journalist from Shanghai whose safety had been assured all the way from Tian, to Cao, and President Li himself."Shantung is far from us."
"But Honan is not quite as far," Percy rejoined, a reminder that when the army been much much smaller than it was today that the cadre and detachments much much closer to the RPF in structure had gone to protect missionaries.
"The White Wolf was born in Honan." He replied, looking past Percy towards two of his Zhili veterans, "And as should be noted most years my people have never quite forgiven the honanese that trespass." But also as much as mythologizing as the white wolf rebellion received in the papers of Xian... it was also likely that Schurman was ignorant of that ill will between provinces might even have not quite grasped the adventures of 1913 before the world had changed with the war in Europe.
Percy with reluctance acknowledged, "Your constitutional club took the mobilization as a signal that the national guard needs expanding, I might note." A hundred thousand men in the Guard was something that Yan stated his home province of Shansi could have accomplished while still being fiscally sensible... and Allen had no reason to disbelieve him. Yan's point though was taken, especially in the face of recent press rhetoric, to be proof that the National Guard should be expanded beyond its statutory strength. "Did you really put soldier on your paperwork?"
"It is my principle occupation, regardless of where the bulk of my income derives." He stated evenly, and Percy did not comment on the returns of that income, but the truth was he really hoped Percy did not realize the extent of martial literature that was generated by the graduates of the Staff College, or exactly how voluminous their wishes were in terms of expanding the army.
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Notes: Obviously this conversation, scene, takes place effectively in public where Percy and Allen are having this conversation in front of basically the Army senior leadership which underscores how detached off the different provincial cliques are from a national government as conversations loosely this happened in Manchuria under Zhang Tsolin and with Feng with the legations talking about local security concerns.
