Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

[Shaper47]

...but if we build a prison on the same turn and the prisoner is getting eaten between turns anyway, I don't think it will matter much.

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Just have an unpaid Biedde work on the prison beforehand.

It shows our good intentions to Mareinette anyways.

 

[Sveta08]

I don't think we can get a victim this turn regardless, not unless we already had a prison.

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Not sure!
If memory serves, we could capture people before, we just essentially had to always have someone watching and guarding them, preventing their escape. A prison just does that automatically at a set DC I think it was.

 

[Shaper47]

Not sure!
If memory serves, we could capture people before, we just essentially had to always have someone watching and guarding them, preventing their escape. A prison just does that automatically at a set DC I think it was.

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It's

For now, if you have a prisoner, and no prisoner to hold them, you will have to keep them in a "makeshift prison". Maintaining said makeshift prison will require two actions per turn, from minion-level followers or summons (Velvet will not be allowed to take this action), and will carry a chance that the prisoner will escape.

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So there's a chance to escape if we don't build a prison and it requires two actions per turn from minion-level followers.

 

[ses]

Well, he didn't exactly 'get away'. He separated from the cult back when the Trigger Event happened, so he wasn't affiliated with Copper's cult (The Gardeners) at all, as far as we're aware. We don't know where he is or what he's up to, currently. Probably something Wolfish.

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He probably inherited Neighnias bindings as well as whatever goods the gardeners evacuated after they started going to ground before our assault hit. Windy probably started a cult cell in Las Pegasus or something associated with the Gardeners in the same way the Gardeners were a cult cell associated with the Wildhoof before Wildhoof blew up.

 

[DelightedOne]

He probably inherited Neighnias bindings as well as whatever goods the gardeners evacuated after they started going to ground before our assault hit. Windy probably started a cult cell in Las Pegasus or something associated with the Gardeners in the same way the Gardeners were a cult cell associated with the Wildhoof before Wildhoof blew up.

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He literally abandoned the Cult at the same time Velvet did so I doubt he kept contact with Copper, especially enough to know she had Neighnia and to get the bindings.

He might have built a cult for himself, but not one associated with the Gardeners.

 

[Pittauro]

I just don't think the Grail Influence would be nearly as impactful, and I'd really rather we spend Velvet's personal social actions on people we actually intend to keep around.

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If you're talking narrative, I can't argue about that.

If we're talking pure mechanical bonuses, Mareinette rolls +90 while Velvet would roll 13 (diplo) +20 (grail 4) +40 (grail influence) = +73.


BUT of course Velvet would get to use that +40 from grail in Mansus, Tall Tale, and any other diplo challenge she might go through during the turn, and Mareinette MIGHT in theory make decisions we dislike when she's supposed to "guess" what we'd want to do.

...also also I kinda feel bad about Diamond Tiara, Mareinette might have traumatized her

We can have her sell low level artifacts. Allow her to gaslight people as much as needed so they are convinced that they are ancient relicts or something, but overall it is not too amorally I think. Or maybe Cadance will buy them.

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oh, that's not a bad idea. @OurLadyOfWires would having Mareinette sell our unused (or unstudied) artifacts allowed?

and in general, how would selling artifacts work? Do we get to auction them, roll for payoff, is it a fixed price, can we do it in the first place?

I may be missing something, but weren't we going to do one of the SH Sacraments this turn?

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the short of it is that we're thinking of prioritizing study while having Baldomare's Lantern influence to help instead.

Moth 5 book makes us ready for Moth Sacrament and without an influence it would be MUCH harder to research due to maluses, Lantern 4 artifact (combined with the SH 3 one we already have) allows us to turn MANY of our confidants and Names into decent scryers and Selene in particular into a superlative Mare-in-the-Light summoner, the Manehattan book will probably unlock a good expedition...

As Baldomare's action would be used for Lantern Influence, we couldn't do her sacrament (requires her action for an expedition. also it costs bits and we're kinda short on those) or get the SH Influence for our personal instead.

We can still do the Edge Sacrament though, so we're still doing more expeditions. I imagine next turn we'd do the Baldomare Sacrament, and the one after our personal one (benefiting from SH 5 giving us another +10 to the sacrament actions).

Oh. I guess I didn't see that.

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yeah.

I think the idea is

Turn 22: Biedde Edge Sacrament, with edge influence and 3 AotL for best odds (and pray to the dice gods).

Turn 23: Baldomare SH (cost: 1 velvet AP, 1 Baldomare AP, 50 bits) AND Moth Sacrament (we should reach moth cap with the moth book, and Spoiled Rich should be brought to Good Friend leashed into Confidant on turn 22).

turn 24: Potentially personal SH (2 velvet actions, 1 baldomare action for SH influence)

Depending on how things go, we MIGHT be ready for Baldomare Lantern and Forge (personal or new name) on turn 23 or 24 too, we basically need an extra lantern scrap beside those from influence and artifact, AND one more forge scrap (which maybe we'll be lucky and get from the summoning itself?) in addition to the Forge Influence from the new name (giving 2 scraps).

Yeah Biedde's invitation is looking really good since Baldomare wont be befriended next turn anyway... which means that we're only doing a pleasant hike and not our personal SH sacrament next turn. So we can risk wounds more easily this turn. And frankly despite how it worked out last time I'd not be too worried about attending Tall Tale in person even at 1 wounds, especially since Velvet can just provide Lantern and let the constables handle the combat if so. I wouldn't vote to abort if we failed Edge Sacrament.

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with +69 combat, I'm willing to take a risk on Tall Tale... but really, I'd do THAT one first BEFORE Biedde preferably.

Rarity

Find a 3circle Site

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why Rarity? have Axe or Selene do it, they have far higher rolls due to general bonus +30.

Also... should we try to scry for Neighnia?

I prefer Mareinette Influence and free social on Spoiled too, as that gives us potential bonuses for tall tale and mansus.

Proposal turn 22 plan, because thankfully the QM assigns actions according to who would do them best we don't need to ping him to ask whether Axe or Rarity would do better at Finding a 3circle Site, since it'll get autoassigned. Current placement of generic actions are just placeholders/assumptions.

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oh, that's true. that said our Names (and Selene) have higher general bonuses than mortals, so they'll near certainly be better than Rarity or Filthy... unless there's narrative considerations, I suppose. Like Filthy maybe having a free warehouse or Selene knowing about the Castle in the Everfree.

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To be very clear, about the Moods of Mareinette.

Keeping her close is an indication you ARE interested in a relationship with her. And sending her to Cadance is an indication you are not AS INTERESTED as Mareinette first assumed.

That is to say, keeping her close will not make her your BABFF instantly. And sending her away will not make her feel instantly slighted and uninterested in maintaining contact with you. But both are steps on those respective directions. They are small, first steps, but still that's where those roads lead.

There was a mention about "what each option could mean", and whether player intent/discussion would play into it. So let me be very clear that yes player intent is always important for me, but actions speak louder.

Mareinette is playing the guest game. Which, make no mistake, means she is playing and that she sees this as a game. It is up to you to either play along or not.

Like you said to Reproach, "yes, this is a joke, because the alternative is that this is serious".

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good to know.

I'm starting to get more interested in her (and her sacrament)... which I kinda find worrying. she's getting to me through the 4th wall!

So for now, I do not know. And we are a bit too close to the end of the quest for me to think the effort that this will involve will be worth it.

More on that later, really. It is not a huge problem, or a great loss. Just a mechanical issue I haven't made a decision on yet.

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@OurLadyOfWires

interesting wording

"too close to the end of the quest for the effort to be worth it"

" I haven't decided yet, more on that later".

It seems to be implying "the end of the quest" is NOT "the end of the story"

 

[ses]

why Rarity? have Axe or Selene do it, they have far higher rolls due to general bonus +30

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My assumption was that real estate can be rolled with Grail, but it doesn't really matter since QM would autoassign between followers regardless.

BUT of course Velvet would get to use that +40 from grail in Mansus, Tall Tale, and any other diplo challenge she might go through during the turn, and Mareinette MIGHT in theory make decisions we dislike when she's supposed to "guess" what we'd want to do.

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We dont need Grail influence this turn anyway.

But yeah in terms of 3circle site the actual best way right to get one is to social Applejack. Sweet Apple Acres doesn't have servants or workers the way ours does so her barn is a 3circle site.

Honestly if you want to commit to only doing good friend plus Leash we should Honored Guest Applejack for her barn and social AP spoiled. But tbh I kinda think there's value in mareinette turning spoiled into a natural confidant in one AP so that we can leash into a minion for Grail sacrament if we really need to emergency take the dinner option for the 2nd rebinding

 

[Shaper47]

[X] Plan Friendship and taking thing seriously
-[X] (ALL IN) You will NOT attempt the "All In" expedition.
-[X] (BIEDDE) Pursue religious goals.
-[X] (MAREINETTE) You introduced her to Cadance, yes, but you are still very interested in her endeavors.
-[X] (FORGE NAME) You will attempt the "Rite of Joyous (Re)Forging"
-[X] (SACRIFICES) 450 bits, Wrong Key,

 

[DelightedOne]

[X] Plan Knives and Names
-[X] (ALL IN) You will NOT attempt the "All In" expedition.
-[X] (BIEDDE) Fund a short monster-hunting expedition (Costs 60 bits)
-[X] (MAREINETTE) Mareinette is her own mare, and Cadance could use some company. Don't do anything, and see how things turn out.
-[X] (FORGE NAME) You will attempt the "Rite of Joyous (Re)Forging" (Sacrifice 1 Wrong Key, 480 Bits)

[X] Plan Knife, Name, and Candle

 

[ses]

[X] Plan Exact Spending
-[X] (ALL IN) You will NOT attempt the "All In" expedition.
-[X] (BIEDDE) Fund a short monster-hunting expedition (Costs 60 bits)
-[X] (MAREINETTE) You introduced her to Cadance, yes, but you are still very interested in her endeavors.
-[X] (FORGE NAME) You will attempt the "Rite of Joyous (Re)Forging"
-[X] (SACRIFICES) 438 bits, Wrong Key, Forge 2

Extra 2 bits while not going below a multiple of ten and not over or under investing when we're very bit constrained. Leaves us exactly 105 bits. 0.49% failure chance, requires 7 or below on both rolls.

 

[Alan975]

[X] Plan Friendship and taking thing seriously

[X] Plan Exact Spending

 

[Nevermort]

[X] Plan Knives and Names
[X] Plan Knife, Name, and Candle


Sending Mareinette to Cadance is just safer overall. People are unable to commit to one route and already pivot from previous decision to introduce Mareinette to Cadance. No one could be sure that plan with prisoner wins when there are already several promising alternatives proposed , so better to go with option that could work with any plan.

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

With the Bureau loyal I don't see a reason to not attack the changelings this turn. Deal with them, and get prisoners for the Lateran Sacrament, send along Biedde to back them up to be sure.

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Changelings cannot be used for the Lantern Sacrament, I'm afraid.
If they have a strong enough fighter they can be used for Edge though!

Reminder it not really an option to social both Spoiled and Filthy. And we really need Spoiled finished this turn, and she has needs to go up 2 stages minimum plus another from the Leash to be used for the Sacraments.

My opinion is we should just use the Leash on Filthy, to start bringing him online, have Velvet spend an action getting closer to Cheerilee. While Mareinnete turbos thous Spoiled in a single turn.

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Why would we need Spoiled finished this very turn?

That's ... a lot of assumptions made fairly quickly into a fairly standard slippery slope problem.

Listen. If you have qualms with the Grail Sacrament, that's okay! I don't blame you, it looks like cannibalism. We don't know how that will change Velvet on the far end. Well, beyond the fact that there are things she is willing to do. It's a change in mindset such as body. Soul, or something like that.

But the Knock Sacrament did not make her slither like a snake nor drip poison nor grow fangs. It will be a change. I don't think catsstrophising it over what might yet be will get us anywhere.

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The DoA is not an Alukite noted for gluttony. And well, just look at the Leash for how the thread changes in attitude regarding terrible Grail stuff. "Oh, we'll never use this," became, "we'll only use it in an emergency," became, "we'll use it just to be safe," became, "we'll use it for our friends's own good in their relationship," and is now becoming in the discussion, "we'll use it to enable cannibalism and hasten Filthy being useful." I have little confidence that this trend will not continue with the Grail Sacrament.

As for letting her go have fun with Cadance and hoping for Harmony... I mean I'm willing to see what Harmony as Love can do here. We know the Lores have zero chance of stopping or changing Marinette, she's survived dedicated Name hit squads, slithered into the Chapel despite being barred from the Mansus, and drained that place dry. Besides, Cadance could use another incredibly eldritch friend in her life, and Mareinette could enjoy the finest offerings of the Royal Capitol every now and again. And it'd make Axe happier!

[X] Plan Knives and Names
-[X] (ALL IN) You will NOT attempt the "All In" expedition.
-[X] (BIEDDE) Fund a short monster-hunting expedition (Costs 60 bits)
-[X] (MAREINETTE) Mareinette is her own mare, and Cadance could use some company. Don't do anything, and see how things turn out.
-[X] (FORGE NAME) You will attempt the "Rite of Joyous (Re)Forging" (Sacrifice 1 Wrong Key, 480 Bits)

 

[ses]

Can someone please explain why that plan isn't using a Forge 2 reagent?

 

[Limabot]

On the note of the Grail Sacrament, if we do decide to pursue it, I don't think Spoiled Milk deserves something like that. Sure, she is a lousy pony and mother, but I think the Moth Sacrament would be enough of a karmic punishment for her, and that getting kidnapped and eaten (possibly alive) would be excessive. I would understand if we were forced to do it on her in the name of expedience, but can't we find a murderer or foal trafficker to use it on instead? Given the Windigo fight update, we know that ponies that vile do exist out there.

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

Can someone please explain why that plan isn't using a Forge 2 reagent?

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It is because the person who made it did not yet crunch those numbers and said they would be unavailable at the time the vote would open.

That said, would you happen to know the cost of making a Forge 2 Reagent?

 

[Nevermort]

Can someone please explain why that plan isn't using a Forge 2 reagent?

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I think people mentioned that it may be needed for other rituals this turn.

Speaking of which I think we would need to scry for Baldomare book this turn if we want to get to her friendship in timely manner. Maybe QM would allow to borrow actions from the next turn again for this but better to clarify it before turn voting. In either case as Jade failure showed we may need a SH reagent to be sure, or maybe Lantern to boost roll.

 

[ses]

I think people mentioned that it may be needed for other rituals this turn.

Speaking of which I think we would need to scry for Baldomare book this turn if we want to get to her friendship in timely manner. Maybe QM would allow to borrow actions from the next turn again for this but better to clarify it before turn voting. In either case as Jade failure showed we may need a SH reagent to be sure, or maybe Lantern to boost roll.

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Selene autopasses the SH roll, and +30 is good enough for the very small chance that we fail to get the Lantern artifact somehow to be worth just committing the Selene AP and accept that "only" +30 if we fail to get the lantern artifact online.

It is because the person who made it did not yet crunch those numbers and said they would be unavailable at the time the vote would open.

That said, would you happen to know the cost of making a Forge 2 Reagent?

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490 is an autopass with no forge reagent. Forge 2 reagent reduces total cost by 20 (costs 20, reduces direct bit cost by 40). 450+reagent is an autopass sans nat1. That's also a pretty huge waste of bits for the sake of psychological reassurance, as saving another 10 bits when we're very bit constrained only adds 0.36% failure chance. Which is just not worth a third of an entire scry ritual or a quarter of the baldomare sacrament ect.

 

[spiderhellian]

[X] Plan Exact Spending

Looks good to me. Thanks for doing the math.

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

Selene autopasses the SH roll, and +30 is good enough for the very small chance that we fail to get the Lantern artifact somehow to be worth just committing the Selene AP and accept that "only" +30 if we fail to get the lantern artifact online.



490 is an autopass with no forge reagent. Forge 2 reagent reduces total cost by 20 (costs 20, reduces direct bit cost by 40). 450+reagent is an autopass sans nat1. That's also a pretty huge waste of bits for the sake of psychological reassurance, as saving another 10 bits when we're very bit constrained only adds 0.36% failure chance. Which is just not worth a third of an entire scry ritual or a quarter of the baldomare sacrament ect.

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Thank you kindly for this math. With it I shall craft a new Plan, a slightly less expensive Plan.

[X] Plan Knife, Name, and Candle
-[X] (ALL IN) You will NOT attempt the "All In" expedition.
-[X] (BIEDDE) Fund a short monster-hunting expedition (Costs 60 bits)
-[X] (MAREINETTE) Mareinette is her own mare, and Cadance could use some company. Don't do anything, and see how things turn out.
-[X] (FORGE NAME) You will attempt the "Rite of Joyous (Re)Forging" (Sacrifice 1 Wrong Key, Forge 2 Reagent, 438 Bits)

 

[Nevermort]

Selene autopasses the SH roll, and +30 is good enough for the very small chance that we fail to get the Lantern artifact somehow to be worth just committing the Selene AP and accept that "only" +30 if we fail to get the lantern artifact online.

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I'll vote for both plans regardless but look at this plan for example. Luna doing RotT for Level 7 book this very turn, likely before we study Lantern 4. I mean maybe QM would allow to study it before doing RotT or would allow to borrow actions from the next turn but it is not guarantee.

Seems pretty similar to what I currently have in my plan skeleton, pending Bird's comments on when artifacts can start being used relative to when they're studied. Though I'll note that despite having the prepwork for the Edge Sacrament in your plan, it's not actually present in the Velvet actions.

Currently:

Detectives - Dodge City
Constables - Tall Tale Proto-Hive
Commissioner - Get our hooves dirty (aka directly help w/ both of the above)
Free Lore Introduction - Lantern

Mareinette - Filthy & Spoiled Rich
Baldomare - Lantern Influence
Biedde - Edge Influence
DoA (2) - ???, tentatively looking for intermediate expedition sites; not difficult enough that DoA would have difficulty doing it on her own or slight backup, but enough to still have relevant rewards
Selene (3) - RotT for Level 7 book (boosted either by studied artifact or by reagent, depending), look for 3-circle site, Soothe the Night
Rarity - Edge AotL
Comet - Edge AotL
Risen - Cover your bases
Servants - Cover your bases

AotL) Either Edge, Lantern, or Grail
Knock) Shattered Stairways
Forge) Either Forge 2 or Lantern 3
Social) Cheerilee
1+2) Study: Moth 5 book, Lantern 4 artifact, Manehattan book, Winter artifact
3) Soft Sweeps FO
4) Forge Name summoning (AP deducted pre-turn)
5) Edge Sacrament


It is quite literally impossible for Selene to fail the SH check. She rolls a baseline of +60, due to her +30 general bonus combined with the +30 from our SH3 artifact.

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That said I think even SH sacrament is still doable. Spend follower actions on covering bases instead of Edge AotL to gain one more action and you can get one more action for Velvet to cast Lantern influence on herself, then she can use Edge sacrament action to go on SH expedition instead.

 

[ses]

I'll vote for both plans regardless but look at this plan for example. Luna doing RotT for Level 7 book this very turn, likely before we study Lantern 4. I mean maybe QM would allow to study it before doing RotT or would allow to borrow actions from the next turn but it is not guarantee.

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QM specifically said that Selene can use the artifact on the same turn that it's studied but we have to commit to the plan regardless of success or failure, no conditionals or upsets. Since +30 is an okay bonus even in the very minor chance of failure that the plan doesn't not-work without it, it's fine to study the artifact and scry in the same turn. QM automatically arranges actions for best results always.

That said I think even SH sacrament is still doable. Spend follower actions on covering bases instead of Edge AotL to gain one more action and you can get one more action for Velvet to cast Lantern influence on herself, then she can use Edge sacrament action to go on SH expedition instead.

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Eh, I considered it but it's not like we can rely on getting a max level Influence, and the max influence gets us scraps that put us a single Befriended-Baldomare turn from Sacrament (She can do a lantern lesson and the sacrament action in a single turn on turn 24 or 25 after she's befriended). Plus we can use every drop of the max influence bonus anyway.

Honestly I'm willing to vote either way on Edge Sacrament. I'd be perfectly willing to instead do two Selene scry actions, one for a level 7 Book expedition, one for an Edge Weapon artifact expedition. Would require us dropping "Spy on Windy" yet again lmao. But I think it'd be a good plan for a turn 24-25 Edge sacrament. But I dont think Calling of Lantern is viable. Honestly if we skipped Edge Sacrament I'd want to do two social actions this turn, one for Cheerilee and one to teach Rarity to Disciple. Increase Rarity's income and hopefully gain more follower AP.

 

[Pororurin]

[X] Plan Knives and Names
[X] Plan Knife, Name, and Candle

 

[Greymere]

[X] Plan Knife, Name, and Candle

Going with this option because I think it works regardless of which direction the thread picks in regards to Mareinette. Decides against it? Cool, we didn't make any false promises to the Name probably singularly most able to ruin our life if she decides to stop playing her "game". Decide to go for it? A pleasant surprise for Mareinette who thought we were uninterested in her stuff.

 

[Arrkhon]

[X] Plan Exact Spending

 

[Greymere]

Does someone know what the math is on the difference between running 3 vs. 2 Edge AotLs during Biedde's Sacrament?

 

[ses]

Does someone know what the math is on the difference between running 3 vs. 2 Edge AotLs during Biedde's Sacrament?

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Attentions	Major Victory	Minor Victory	Loss
0	23.2%	13.6%	63.2%
1	47.1%	11.5%	41.3%
2	58.2%	14.7%	27.1%
3	60.4%	18.2%	21.3%

Major and Minor victories being 0 and 1 wound taken. Here are the odds for Biedde's Edge Sacrament. Man it's hilarious how much worse our odds are against Biedde than roflstomping +25 combat Heroic mortal Shining Armor with an Influence. Our loss rate doesn't go below 21% no matter how many Attentions we stack. I'm starting to have second thoughts about rushing into Edge Sacrament seeing that failure rate and chance of going down to 1 wound again. Maybe we can make a 2nd try at getting hold of an Edge artifact that actually gives a combat boost? We may have flubbed last time (pocket sand!) but it's a likely thing to exist in an expedition after all, and every point of bonus swings the odds a lot. Like there's at least double-digit odds of one being in BTRC3 let alone expeditions in general. I really want to do more expedition spam, hopefully we have Axe's action next turn and there's no delay on getting her back.

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[DelightedOne]

Can someone please explain why that plan isn't using a Forge 2 reagent?

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I wanted to use a Lantern Reagent in the scrying we will be doing for Baldomare's book. If we don't use a reagent to Summon the Forge Name that becomes a possibility, if we do we can't use it.

 

[Pittauro]

[X] Plan Exact Spending
-[X] (ALL IN) You will NOT attempt the "All In" expedition.
-[X] (BIEDDE) Fund a short monster-hunting expedition (Costs 60 bits)
-[X] (MAREINETTE) You introduced her to Cadance, yes, but you are still very interested in her endeavors.
-[X] (FORGE NAME) You will attempt the "Rite of Joyous (Re)Forging"
-[X] (SACRIFICES) 438 bits, Wrong Key, Forge 2


All in is foolish.

We need Biedde for (from apparently leading plan) Edge Influence and Sacrament.

We definitely want the forge name, and I think this was the optimal amout to only fail on nat 1?

and... yeah, I'm starting to lean towards the Grail Sacrament. I'm STRONGLY against doing it on Spoiled Rich, she's bad but not THAT bad, already the Moth Sacrament is pretty cruel.

We can do something like a minor scry for "foal peddler/serial killer" and send Biedde to get them after we have the prison and grail scraps ready. It's an easy guilt-free target, and it wouldn't cost us that much all things considered.

Total max cost is basically 1 Biedde action, 1 Selene action (to scry), 30 bits for that ritual, and 1 Velvet action.

It's an acceptable cost. And we NEED extra power.

For All In, for the Malleary, for what's beyond the Tricuspid too maybe...

 

[Nevermort]

and... yeah, I'm starting to lean towards the Grail Sacrament. I'm STRONGLY against doing it on Spoiled Rich, she's bad but not THAT bad, already the Moth Sacrament is pretty cruel.

We can do something like a minor scry for "foal peddler/serial killer" and send Biedde to get them after we have the prison and grail scraps ready. It's an easy guilt-free target, and it wouldn't cost us that much all things considered.

Total max cost is basically 1 Biedde action, 1 Selene action (to scry), 30 bits for that ritual, and 1 Velvet action.

It's an acceptable cost. And we NEED extra power.

For All In, for the Malleary, for what's beyond the Tricuspid too maybe...

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I think latest idea was to do Grail Sacrament this very turn. Because we need to pay Mareinette price after it. Ironically Spoiled is not fast enough. Biedde for sure can capture somepony and then guard them.

Although if people wanted to play villain protag they should have started much earlier to not lose so many opportunities.