Pax's Alternate History Snippet repository.

[Imperator Pax]

Japan's well frankly this goes to some of the same problems as in the US just on am uch larger and more deleterious scale especially since for Japan the war started much earlier and there wasn't time to procure better equipment. The Japanese leadership the supply side officers were dealing with a doctrine (and in the Japanese unique case the ramifications of ideology) of a very infantry, bayonet centric notion of aggressive frontal attacks, and this goes less to ww1 though the conclusion drawn from ww1's final years was validating to the IJA staff (the US fresh troops took atrocious losses relatively speaking but won, the German offensive nearly broke the french, the british break throughs were successful... and none of these official accounts placed the credit primarily on artillery, it was in the official histories and understandings the infantry who achieved victory) and that RJW history also placed success as going from the infantry man and the moral rectitude of the IJA and this strangled technocratic development leanings in the IJA beccause they just didn't have the budget or support to procure new artillery

they tried, but the showa financial crisis and then wall street crash followed by the opening of hostilities in north china and then the full outbreak of the second sino japanese war prevented the acquisition/procurement of full scale modern artillery by the IJA the best they received were handfuls of schneiders and some other models which will show up but its ultimately politics

 

[SuperHeavy]

The accuracy of the mobile launchers is not going to be anything to write home about but it would scare the hell out of anyone they can hit. It would be like sky started falling for any mass of infantry caught out in the open.

 

[ATP]

Japan's well frankly this goes to some of the same problems as in the US just on am uch larger and more deleterious scale especially since for Japan the war started much earlier and there wasn't time to procure better equipment. The Japanese leadership the supply side officers were dealing with a doctrine (and in the Japanese unique case the ramifications of ideology) of a very infantry, bayonet centric notion of aggressive frontal attacks, and this goes less to ww1 though the conclusion drawn from ww1's final years was validating to the IJA staff (the US fresh troops took atrocious losses relatively speaking but won, the German offensive nearly broke the french, the british break throughs were successful... and none of these official accounts placed the credit primarily on artillery, it was in the official histories and understandings the infantry who achieved victory) and that RJW history also placed success as going from the infantry man and the moral rectitude of the IJA and this strangled technocratic development leanings in the IJA beccause they just didn't have the budget or support to procure new artillery

they tried, but the showa financial crisis and then wall street crash followed by the opening of hostilities in north china and then the full outbreak of the second sino japanese war prevented the acquisition/procurement of full scale modern artillery by the IJA the best they received were handfuls of schneiders and some other models which will show up but its ultimately politics

Click to shrink...

That,and they had relatively big standing army with obsolate artillery arleady.For the same reasons french in OTL do not replaced their WW1 guns,/well,mostly,build some new,but not many/
When both germans and americans practicallt created army from almost notching before WW2.Brits had small standing army,and only country with replaced artillery with big standing army were soviets - but people there were starved almost to death to do so.

And,they were right about not trusting in artillery - WW1 proved that 10 day bombardment do not helped,when 15 minute waking barrage,where artillery fire go before attacking infrantry,let english win in Amiens 1918 battle.

 

[Imperator Pax]

August 1924
He looked at the phone one more time, then at his wristwatch as Griswold helped himself to coffee. The two of them were he suspected a bit surprised Waite hadn't rang... or shown up for this meeting it'd been on the books... but the man did have his own slate of jobs he was responsible for and a committee meeting that was higher up on responsibility.

The telephone was a wondrous thing, but the telegram remained the most effective method of long distance communication with the world beyond China's shores. Letters came, and were sent out... and course they sent men abroad and that would never change he imagined... it wouldn't disappear entirely... but the telephone and the radio allowed communication at a speed that did at times that could boggle the mind.

The nascent telephone industry, the radio too were likely to mature to the point that every decent family might have one. Already they used the radio in public venues to share news that didn't have time or was important enough not to wait for a paper to be printed or for it to go up on the village signboard.

A radio call to men assembled could transmit orders to entire formations, and a telephone could give a colonel the narrow details of what was to be done. Allen stood and regarded the machine and the papers on his desk. Originally he hadn't had a telephone in his office, but now it was a ubiquitous presence just as the same as his sidearms, and his pens, and the papers.

It was modernity. Things grew, the cadre had grown, nearly four hundred pages of material had been compiled deemed significant priority to read over regarding what was happening in middle America.

"Powell has been busy." He remarked one hand resting on the bound report with only mild annoyance at the chore before the two of them. The MAK had pushed its own telegraph and railway business into telephones, sunk money into industry. Guatemala had encouraged it, and the diversification including the tourism trade as prohibition had taken root in the states. Powell had encouraged immigration and built more, faster, justifying the Cadre's expansion, and across middle America and the result was the shift they were looking at.

"He's still sore the constitution failed." Griswold replied. "The new communist problem more or less insures that he's in a position that the government of both countries will give the cadre more sanction than we ever got officially from the old dynasty." There was a pause, "You put it off as long as you could but if you take Percy along with you to ride out to join Shan..."

Allen jerked his head to one side hand shifting to wave off the comment, "I'm prepared for the questions, I assume Cullen is reading the mail?"

"And listening in on the phone. He's actually pretty sore about how lax the legation's security is about it all." It wasn't just the British, it was the American side as well. "When they shuttered the Black Chamber," Officially, "We took on plenty of them."

"Or Powell did."

"Counts as US." Griswold responded to the correction, with distinction on the last word, "And the State Department knows it. The desk hands down there know we may not see eye to eye on everything but its like some fella taking a swing at your brother, and finding out." There was a shake of his head, "Powell is heavily involved in electrification and that makes him popular, but also he's made it possible for people to have credit to start businesses as the towns expand. Thats bigger still. Honduras and Guatemala will probably weld themselves together given the situation which will make the British have questions."

"You'd think," Allen stopped himself, and blew out a breath, the world had changed. Powell liked borrowing Teddy's phrases, and messages about things, but he wasn't Roosevelt. He had his own goals, and pushing the countries in south America to adopt new modern inexpensive arms... in the form of 8mm standard rifles and modern artillery was part of that. For the things he couldn't produce he was talking about ships, and that seemed perilously expensive. "What is it?"

"He wants a hundred thousand men. Specifically he wants five rifle divisions, triangular, and with mechanized artillery." It would be lighter artillery of course, Powell had experimented with a variety of options, but he'd built self propelled semi automatic three inchers. Those he seemed to like, "Percy will have questions about why he's sending people to Denmark and the Netherlands, and which ever other options," Offices of the Cadre on the continent, "he has looking at things, but we know his emphasis is on infrastructure projects."

"I imagine that sounds familiar. This is bothering Waite I take it?"

"The constitution fell through, that would have given, or at least shored up what the MAK does across four countries. As it is, Guatemala and Honduras have both given him a blank check to back and forth over their borders." extraterritoriality in a way that Fruit, or for that matter the French or British didn't have, and there was surely the labor question. Fruit had been building company towns for decades now, and that was one thing, but building the railway, and operating it had become an entirely different endeavor ... and now with ports... repairing the earthquake damage that had gotten Powell out there in the first place. "Powell has power concentrated in both countries. State won't move against him, not in this administration, and frankly I think the British don't want to, but the French may expect to get cut out of the market entirely if he succeeds."

"The French should have thought about that before they tried to go back to a closed system." Closing their colonies off wasn't really the issue... oh it was political talking point but it was an excuse to deny the French access to the market and Paris almost certainly knew that but... "The frogs are arrogant sons of bitches." Allen remarked, "I imagine thats Powell's official position, if maybe a little more polite. Facing the facts though," And the fact that people had been complaining about capital access in markets since they'd been boys at least that long, "Powell has to read the papers we send over and know things are coming to a head over here."

"Possibly down there as well. Its why he wants to expand arms sales." And for Powell it would give him the excuse of selling off stocks of cheap post war heavy artillery that he didn't feel he needed to Allen assumed probably Brazil or maybe nearer Columbia, and then turnaround and sell comparable equipment or even the same models of rapid firing heavy artillery to their now concerned neighbors while still talking about a united states of south america at some point. "I've seen his proposals, and I would not be surprised if something happens in Chile or the like. There is trouble everywhere, but he has a point pushing everyone on the continent to adopt the same cartridges makes for a simple market."

It was a cold calculus, the sort of thinking that made men bitter about the world... cynical. "Notably its none of the neighbors likely to ever shoot at his own men."

"I surely hadn't noticed," Was the sardonic response, wry smile, "Oddly enough neither has State made such a statement. They did take note that France sold field guns to Mexico and elsewhere before the war though." Of course ironically with post war surplus being what it was Powell had sold French ordinance to his more southernly neighbors the past few years. "Powell has the bug though, he's got the itch about boats... and I think he means to try and play the mediator to his neighbors with the British as a way of getting himself a navy at some point down the road once the rest of the Cadre there has been convinced of it."

"It must gall him that he didn't think he needed to include a constitutional requirement for a navy into the document." Allen replied equally amused, as he prepared to circle around he paused, "He's also been talking about electric boats, of the undersea kind?"

"Some firm out of the Hague, its a dutch name but theyre Germans. Way to get around the treaty, they've been working about two years now." Griswold paused, "Powell isn't likely to buy anything yet, he's keeping his options open and talking with King, even though that one hates the British something fierce."

Allen flipped the documents, and the red ink in the pages, "His banking expansions, I see Waite has noted that he's attempting to push fiscal reforms is there anything I need to really know about there?"

"He can afford to maintain lower interest rates than other banks. That will probably give him leverage when he invariably moves... but he's also surviving de facto," If not de jure, "as the bank of last resort to Guatemala's government before they call Uncle Sam for help. That's risky..." He let the comment hang.

"Waite thinks he's going to push with Cabrera gone, and no chance of the constitution to unify the neighbors." There was a pause, "The government is unstable since Orlean's coup," the man's name was actually Orellana but Griswold didn't care, "I don't think he'll move against the general they get on," Orellana and Powell were apparently close friends since the MAK had gone over, "and state obviously wants them to work together but again finances in the country are shaky and there are demographic considerations with all the immigration and expansion."
--
Notes: Just to reiterate last year I lost a decent chunk of material , that has seriously set this back, and I haven't been able to sit down make myself basically rewrite everything from really this point to the outbreak of the Northern Expedition, much less put that war to paper. This is not dead, but you will see a lot more of its Culitvation Chronicle AU going up.

Largely thisdetails the across the pond looking in as things in Latin America take shape. I'm not exactly sure what killed Orellana foul play hasbeen suggested , that he was poisoned after having declared martial law and thus here... after that happens its the MAK which assumes power, and its expansion is largley overshadowed from AoE's perspective because by that point the Northern Expedition is becoming a political problem, and then becomes a military problem. Thus this ia good opportunity in the timeline to show whats going on in latin and south america as the interwar period really gets underway.

 

[ATP]

electric submarines - of course they must use it underwater.They were slowly and had little range, but worked.According to what i read, electric subs who could be fast under water was created after WW2.Well, germans buitl some before war end.Typ XXI,i think.

french 75mm guns in Mexico - i think,that they used it alt least till 2000.
Speaking about guns - could you made medium guns or howitzers on truck with 1924 technology? if so, they could change position faster then normal artillery.Of course,could not fire when truck moved.


P.S i read about China air forces in 1937 - they were trained by american,germans and italians, and owned american,german,italian and french planes.
in small numbers,for example they buyed italian monoplane fighter Ba-27, but only 10 or 12 of them.The same goes for german Hs 123 dive bomber.

it must be nightmare for logistic.Your China could produce everytching for itself,and few types to made it cheaper.
What about using one engine for all? dutch did it, their fighter D.21,fighter-bomber G.1 and dive bomber C.X all used the same Bristol engine.

Not buy Bristol engines,they were weak,but one type of engine is good idea.

 

[ATP]

you could choose either american Curtiss-Wright engines,or french Gnome-rhone.
To show difference between Bristol and GR -
Poland produced planes for itself with Bristol engines,and sell abroad with stronger GR engines.Result -
P.11c - 375/h, P.24/the same,but with french engine and 2 more HMG/ - 430/h

Light bomber P.23B - 319/h, light bomber P.43 with GR engines - 365/h

 

[Imperator Pax]

Late August 1924
Outside was dominated by the sounds of trucks moving equipment. There was a brisque but not alarmed character to the men going about their work. "I say John Allen really this all a bit much." Shan looked at the Englishman, and then back to the staff documents which occupied his attention and resumed his work. Shan was obviously annoyed and if Percy noticed he didn't let it slow him as he made a show of looking at the metal cases 'tubes' outside the window. "I had heard about your suggestions for rocket artillery."

He shook his head, "They're not my proposals, as a general rule our artillery confirms that an attack is effective," and ceased fire to assess damage, which of course conserved ammunition, "and that usually means catching the other guy out in the open." Or being in such a position that the 15 centimeter and the newer 155mm guns could dial effective against a protected position. "Griswold and Dawes feel that rockets have the opportunity to facilitate a rapidly mobile element to support assaults, or to break them." The ammunition issue came to mind since rockets would burn through their allotment, rather frightfully. He hadn't seen them in action yet, but he understood what the numbers suggested. "We won't test them at scale for a few years."

"Thats hardly as a reassuring as you make it sound." He coughed slightly into the wind as it picked up from the open window. It was dry... it'd been dry. Worst drought in living memory the last few years. Allen thought of the water infrastructure that had been built over the last decade, even as Percy continued, "Our mutual friend Mister Taro does seem to think they're a good idea."

Which of course meant he was complaining that the old guard was condescending artillery. It'd been a sore point. "Has he, I heard he was coming back from Siberia visiting Iseburo." Taro hadn't phoned in about visiting, which meant he probably had been ordered back to Tokyo directly

"Yes, he thinks your rockets," Again with the his rockets, "would be a good deterrent if the bolshevik should find themselves feeling a bit frisky." He was sure that wasn't a direct quote... but it was funny how Iseburo only towed fiscal conservatism when it wasn't his projects being at risk. He had managed to put one over on the Navy by getting them to decommission most of the old guns and then those had by sheer convenience of course not been replaced by the Diet with newer ships citing cost concerns from post war economic straits. "I'm under the impression that that still represent a shift from his previous position."

The old army hands though had still complained bitterly that Iseburo hadn't given the Red Cavalry the bayonet at the Lakes. "I know Taro likes Iseburo's support for machine guns, he likes his special service squads with those automatic rifles as well."

"You say that like its a bad thing?"

"I say that, because when Taro chronicled our action at Zhengzhou the only thing most of the," Infantry " officers," the Generals and Colonels reading the report, "wanted to focus on in the assault was that bayonets had been fixed." And for one throw away reference to the old rebel yell to have been taken entirely out of proportion as the orthodox army doctrine authors had interpreted facts as liberally as they could to support their own notions, "Taro wants a modern triangular army, and he's not likely to get it. He can point to this and say 'it would be good to have this to kill reds' and the army will complain they can't afford because they need the money to maintain square divisions at strength," already the Japanese army was grumbling about wanting to reduce artillery park strength... which actually might have been why Taro thought this might be useful.

"Well we all do use the same bit of cutlery." Percy quipped, before commenting that in answer to Taro's choice of the Russian automatic rifle they had Lewis's assault phase gun, which was prominent in the brigade's most aggressive elements. "are you serious about bringing the 10th​ up?"

Shan looked backup, hand holding his red pen, and Allen nodded, "It looks like we're going to need them."

"Whatever for?" He shook his head, "I know Zhang has been getting bit strident lately but its a bit late in the season even if you though the was serious about starting anything. Everything about Percy's body language conveyed how much the Englishman wanted that to be true...and no doubt how much Alston and the British mission in general hoped that this would blow over and be nothing, "Moving the 10th ​up over this business in Jiangsu just seems a bit premature." Percy tried to justify that Cao Kun clearly didn't think it was much, even going to suggest that on its face this was just straightening things out...

"I have recommended," Shan remarked, in as even as a tone as he could manage, "that moving them to join the Corp allows confirmation that they are able to act as part of the body at large... if Cao Kun proves correct it will have harmed nothing and answered the 10th readiness evaluation."

On its face that was true the crisis Jiangsu shouldn't have been a serious issue to constitutional governance... but the constitution hadn't been written with reality in mind. The facts on the ground were that when the beiyang had split there had been three factions that had come out of Yuan Shkai's death... and Anhui was still represented as a nominal neutral buffer between Fengtien and Zhili.

Or at least that was how things were had been working out. Cullen was already expecting riots in Shanghai over the whole affair. "What do your own people in Shanghai think then?"

Percy made a dismissive gesture, "Always a bunch of clucking hens that lot . Hardly should think to pay them any mind."

"So they're nervous." He replied stating what Percy had just made clear.

"Yes, and you calling the tenth up here won't do anything but make them more nervous. Alston has assured the oaf of a secretary down there that the army up here, your army, Xian is doing its usual bit. That this is normal, and that it completely normal for how things are done in northern china." Alston had probably made it clear to SHanghai the delineation of 'northern' versus 'southern'... maybe to the point that Shanghai didn't like that, and though ALston might be risking breach with the foreign office's official one china policy.

The pen was set down, "And if Shanghai is threatened by the fighting? What then?" Shan questioned, "The people along the bund will have expectations. When the train was taken they did squawk like startled chickens."

The 10th ​was going to join him anyway, "You should come along then Percy, Shan and I have to inspect the Corp level arrangements and you can tell Alston that our disposition is that studies are being conducted."

"I'm sure John Allen. Studies is what you call everything up until someone has found your huntsmen sighting some oafish bandit for those ghastly krupps. But yes telling Alston that the 10th​ is engaged with its parent Corp would perhaps mollify the chaps on the bund...except the French. The Americans will gladly look the other way."
--
Notes: I need togo back and look specifically at the immediate post war c. 1920 stuff in threaad, there is a lot of material 1924 onward that needs to be rewritten. So as for Shanghai, the American prescence in Shanghai was large, and growing by 24 and politically was far less active in these sorts of things than France or Britain despite that the US had and engaged vastly more capital and investment resources into the 'Paris of the East'. Part of this I ascribe that the US ambassador theembassy was not effective... I mean reinsch was ... not a capable ambassador and the early twenties didn't meaningfully change that due to Harding's return to normalcy nonsense.

So I did want to go ahead and update this, this is short, but it does convey that Xianis prepared to forward move troops in response to actions it thingsare threatening to its interests. This is important for what itrepresents in foreign policy terms, that Xian is willing to posttroops rather than just ignore problems on its borders... its also why Xian pushes Kirghiz to make adoption and reform of its military to resist presenting the Bolsheviks the chance of trying for another round. The Central Asian the stans are under White nominally Royalist british aligned russian leadership being supported by a mix of Xian and Britain through trade as a buffer state. (i.e. that the stans represented an economically productive breadbasket to tsarist russia and had other available resources besides being geographically advantageous to Britain wanting more buffer space to protect the jewel in the crown)

 

[ATP]

Thanks for chapter!

rocket artillery would be useful,as long as you made it at least 120mm.Anytching smaller would be mostly useless,it would be best if you could made kind of soviet 220mm Uragan system,dunno if it is possible with 1924 technology.

bayonet charges - Japan stuck to that even after WW1,becouse it worked against soviets or chineese.Even in 1942 against brits ,americans and dutch.
And then americans get better weapons,and it stopped working.
I hope,that they manage to stop madness before WW2.Your China certainly could show them stupidity of such actions.

And "and the army will complain they can't afford because they need the money to maintain square divisions at strength," - that was problem not only in Japan,but France and Poland,too
all of that countries keep many big divisions,and as a result Poland and Japan used old WW1 artillery during WW2,and France manage to replace only small part of their old guns with new models.

Central Asians puppet british states - that is what they try to achieve in 19th century,i read that in 1877 war between Russia and England almost happened not only becouse of Turkey,but also taking Buchara by russians in 1876.And later almost happened in 1893 over some oazis near Afganistan which russians taken.

How different history would be if such wars happened? well,Russia certainly would not take India,becouse in 19th century sending army through Afganistan was simply not possible,dunno why brits feared that.
All russians could do would be send some cossacks,and cossacks could burn sometching,but not win battles.

 

[Imperator Pax]

Thanks for chapter!

rocket artillery would be useful,as long as you made it at least 120mm.Anytching smaller would be mostly useless,it would be best if you could made kind of soviet 220mm Uragan system,dunno if it is possible with 1924 technology.

bayonet charges - Japan stuck to that even after WW1,becouse it worked against soviets or chineese.Even in 1942 against brits ,americans and dutch.
And then americans get better weapons,and it stopped working.
I hope,that they manage to stop madness before WW2.Your China certainly could show them stupidity of such actions.

And "and the army will complain they can't afford because they need the money to maintain square divisions at strength," - that was problem not only in Japan,but France and Poland,too
all of that countries keep many big divisions,and as a result Poland and Japan used old WW1 artillery during WW2,and France manage to replace only small part of their old guns with new models.

Central Asians puppet british states - that is what they try to achieve in 19th century,i read that in 1877 war between Russia and England almost happened not only becouse of Turkey,but also taking Buchara by russians in 1876.And later almost happened in 1893 over some oazis near Afganistan which russians taken.

How different history would be if such wars happened? well,Russia certainly would not take India,becouse in 19th century sending army through Afganistan was simply not possible,dunno why brits feared that.
All russians could do would be send some cossacks,and cossacks could burn sometching,but not win battles.

Click to shrink...

The standard Uragan's biggest issue is its weight, with 1920s technology 16x600lb tubes (220mm) on a truck is plainly going to be too much. you might be able to drop it down to eight tubes but the rocket itself is not the issue its the weight of trying to fit 16 of them on one platform... it would entirely feasible to build and launch eight of those from a towed platform but in 1920 I don't think there is powerful engine to go in a truck to carry 16 in the bed. Late 30s early forties you could tow a smaller number at low speeds by the fifites sure the engines are there but the thing with rockets is once mass production mortars are under way you have an idea of how small something can be in a shell and still be effective

under 120mm its not worth it for a rocket, caveat except as direct fire (which would be a whole other subject)

The central asian states here, and also in Sharpe's patron are very different because of what happens with British politics at the end of their respective major conflicts (Napoleonic wars, and WW1) I could do a longer response later on this but it redally plays into the culture of Britain's foreign office in both cases

 

[ATP]

The standard Uragan's biggest issue is its weight, with 1920s technology 16x600lb tubes (220mm) on a truck is plainly going to be too much. you might be able to drop it down to eight tubes but the rocket itself is not the issue its the weight of trying to fit 16 of them on one platform... it would entirely feasible to build and launch eight of those from a towed platform but in 1920 I don't think there is powerful engine to go in a truck to carry 16 in the bed. Late 30s early forties you could tow a smaller number at low speeds by the fifites sure the engines are there but the thing with rockets is once mass production mortars are under way you have an idea of how small something can be in a shell and still be effective

under 120mm its not worth it for a rocket, caveat except as direct fire (which would be a whole other subject)

The central asian states here, and also in Sharpe's patron are very different because of what happens with British politics at the end of their respective major conflicts (Napoleonic wars, and WW1) I could do a longer response later on this but it redally plays into the culture of Britain's foreign office in both cases

Click to shrink...

Thanks for answer! i think,that they could use 150mm rockets,like germans in Nebelwher.

And i would like to knew how british politics ended,so they get puppet Central Asian states in your stories.All i knew is that:

1.Tsar Paul allied with Napoleon and planned to send cossacks to take Buchara - but brits helped in making putch and murdering him.
sending cossack to India would be,of course ,suicidal and stupid,dunno why brits feared that.

2.Brits provoked polish uprising in Poland in 1830 not only to save their new state,Belgium,but also to save Buchara - tsar planned to conqer it then,but war with Poland made it impossible.

Of course,once we started uprising,brits tossed us under russian bus and do not even tried to help - but we deserved that for falling for british promises.

 

[Imperator Pax]

Thanks for answer! i think,that they could use 150mm rockets,like germans in Nebelwher.

And i would like to knew how british politics ended,so they get puppet Central Asian states in your stories.All i knew is that:

1.Tsar Paul allied with Napoleon and planned to send cossacks to take Buchara - but brits helped in making putch and murdering him.
sending cossack to India would be,of course ,suicidal and stupid,dunno why brits feared that.

2.Brits provoked polish uprising in Poland in 1830 not only to save their new state,Belgium,but also to save Buchara - tsar planned to conqer it then,but war with Poland made it impossible.

Of course,once we started uprising,brits tossed us under russian bus and do not even tried to help - but we deserved that for falling for british promises.

Click to shrink...

The abridged explanation

The Brits problem in INdia was that the EIC made a lot of people very wealthy very quickly, and was increasingly moving to where the EIC monopoly was coming to an end, so other british companies were getting in on the action, so there was pressure on parliament to do something it wasn't jsut other companies it was increasingly also the emeerging methodist movement evangelical middle classes pushing parliament to do something as well (which was frustrating the EIC) and the question of the public debt as well

There is also the fact is that India's distance but importance to the British economic system meant Parliament routinely was terrified of a fiscal crisis and the change of hands between liberals and conservatives (gladstone and disraeli over and over again through the period of Victoria's reign) England's strategy was to keep the great concert of europe on message but also without having one power astride the continent... this is in part why you eventually get the treaty of paris in 1854 peeling afghanistan off from Persia to create a buffer zone between Russia. The idea is that Russia is a land empire and will actually try and march (again most of parliament were not professional modern soldiers, they assumed if war happened it would be expensive, and costly... the napoleonic war officially went on for a long time)

So for Britain much of it goes to how leadership particularly made speechs about the situation abroad shaped the government of both parties even when those speechs were completely wrong about the subject matter, because there was no easy way to fact check a speech on the floor of parliament, and also you had a widening reach of newspapers that were politically engaged.

 

[Imperator Pax]

September 1924
The city had been the first real city the cadre had exercised power in as approaching a government... they'd moved here ... into western Zhili leaving the old offices in Tietsin when the Old Dynasty had still been in power.

Yuan Shikai had not minded, especially during the White Wolf rebellion and that tacit endorsement of that pre revolution status quo had lead to it being accepted prima facie after the President's death. In short Cao Kun had remained dujun of Zhili de jure, but everyone in the north accepted that there was Western... interior Zhili now, and a Eastern 'coastal' Zhili for which Cao administered from officially Tiestin but more realistically from his offices, or even his personal residence, in Peking. That had continued really until the end of the decade when Duan then executive had more formally recognized Western Zhili as more properly its own province, and Cao had gone along with it almost passively.

The official rationale by both men and their offices was that it was an internal... familial matter within the beiyang... much like the current crisis might otherwise have been styled.

"Zhang has formally denounced the Zhili clique," Allen nodded to Waite's announcement even if the announcement was wholly formal report...everyone already knew it. The telegram had gone out.. and it was a declaration of war. It didn't matter that Zhang's denunciations had been boilerplate, and that was probably why, "The legations don't think it matters."

"Are they expecting a repeat of last time then?"

"maybe, some of them probably." Waite answered Carter. "Zhang didn't say anything new in terms of grievances." And as a result Peking was still a bit laggard when it came to moving, which now definitely seemed like a mistake. There were concerns already in the paper, in Xian's papers, about the safety of people living in Western Zhili, and there was a big holiday coming up which any fighting threatened to spoil.

"Do you think him not saying anything new is intentional?"

Allen doubted it, and Waite shook his head, "Doubtful," He answered, "I don't think Zhang thinks he needs to say anything more to justify what he's about to do." In truth the whole scuffle over who or rather which provincial dujun should administer Shanghai was an excuse... a justification to revisit existing old grievances. Anhui was a buffer in the political machine of the beiyang but one with still social sway.

"what about Bell cabling Washington?"

But the telegrams from Tietsin to the Secretary of State weren't going to do anything, just as telegrams from Cunningham in Shanghai weren't going to be able to manage anything. "Other than him expecting Chekiang and Kiangsu to be the match to the powder? We know Woosung," the forts nominally protecting Shanghai "were attacked by ships that left Nanking and Foochow." But that went to how up in the air things could be."

"I want you to," Well Carter's section, "To keep reading," Great,"Northern's telegrams," He stated... technically the gendarmes was reading all the telegrams going out through Tietsin's cables, but Bell had selected Great Northern as his communication company of choice believing them least likely to be subject to censorship. "You're also to reiterate to the charge d'affairs he should expect reports of the activity of the army, including of the reports of aircraft."

Bell would likely wring his hands, but no more than what he was already doing over the possibility of Nanking's ships exchanging, further, fire with the Forts at Woosung. Or rather he was concerned what a full scale naval battle in shanghai harbor might yield in terms of bystanders in the proximity. "Do I tell him accurately what we have on standby? The boys ready to go up and over?"

Waite and Allen regarded each other. "Give him the ballpark estimate, if he knows better we'll find out when he sends Washington the update, but forty thousand men, is accurate enough." Even if it didn't count 2nd​ Division or the Reserves in the second line of the corp standing back further down the rail line. "With Bell, and anyone," Else, "Not familiar with the situation it will downplay our position. Make them less likely to consider it."

Young Carter swung off heading for a train that would still run, and take him to the American Legation, and to the trunk of telecommunications which carried word from North China across the sea to the United States, and left the two engineers alone in the room with maps and papers listing ammunition stores, and counts of victuals. "We should convene the staff tonight."

"I agree." Waite replied after a minute. "Zhang is going to try and let his boy coordinate his planes and Renaults in a coordinated attack, if it works well... it'd be an impressive show. I don't personally think his tanks have it, but even if they're just mobile pill boxes thats still a nasty surprise for infantry." Zhang and Cao had both increased the number of machine guns in their best troops... but Cao was short on funds, and also inherently, institutionally conservative on organization.

"Shan has distributed the brigade, do you know what our 20mm," The autocannon mounted in the Assault Company's fighting vehicle's turret, "will do to an FT?"

"Bad things." Waite replied sardonically, then with a more professional demeanor, "Lets say Zhang the younger does confront our mounted troops, whether thats the dragoons or your civil affairs I'm not sure that the frontal armor on a Renault would stop the first round, it certainly wouldn't take several of them head on. In that firepower has outclassed defense." He paused, "Admittedly the FT is an old tank, I doubt his Italian models are different armor wise, but they're also not his only tanks, and those new tanks he's gotten from Vickers, they might survive better... but his apparent interest in the Mark 1," The bigger Vickers offering that had been shown off in the spring, "has yet to amount to a purchase. Our fellow in London says thats because he wants to make them domestically." Which would probably mean Vickers, some Japanese firm and Manchuria getting together and working something out... that probably wasn't going to happen until this settled, and there was money for it. "That presupposed Little Zhang takes a swing at our cavalry."

Which there wasn't evidence he would... "He might not. We are threading a fine line." And Zhang's rhetoric danced around picking a fight with anyone unintentionally. The first couple telegrams last month had been careful in their wording and mostly about old grievances with Wu Peifu. "But we can also be confident that if Wu was going to take that bait and launch an attack in response it would have happened already." In other words Cao Kun wasn't going to be on the offensive. The Zhili Clique intended to hold and defend its ground, which could have given it an advantage by not needing to move troops cross country... maybe that had been Wu's argument that it would cost less, force the enemy to exert themselves and then let Zhili leverage its larger manpower reserve to stop its northern neighbor.

The two generals stepped out of the planning room, past the men posted at the door, and stopped only long enough at the mess to grab coffee. It was ninety percent humidity, the mercury read it as about eighty something. Troopers in black from the Gendarmes 1st​ stood around combat cars with colt browning fitted on pintle mounted carriers.

The Beiyang military academy at Baoding was metaphorically within spitting distance. Last time Baoding had been a potential concern... and further back, before that in 1917 Waite had sighted his brigade of artillery, and watched the city from a hillside view on a July morning.

1st​Rifle Division's junior most Regiment had already moved over the river north of the city.... not that that was hard Baoding was a quick train ride north, so there was already a good bridge that allowed the troops to cross. That was where things became complicated with where the legal borders were... with Cao Kun, with Duan Qirui it had never been an issue. Baoding was 'eastern zhili', never mind that it was well in land... and Zhengzhou well to the south was 'Western Zhili'. Allen took a pull from the coffee, looked at the parked vehicles, men coming back from late morning pt runs. "Lu is supposedly going to start fighting on Thursday, is that it?"

Waite shrugged, because the truth was Kiangsu had been shooting at the other side and the other side had been shooting back for a week now. Small skirmishes... clashes in the street, some of not even with guns, brawls and wrestling in the streets of villages where authority was disputed. "Zhang's denouncement is probably the closest we're going to get to a declaration of war on Cao Kun. Either he does something."

Or he doesn't.

Japan's minister had said he was trying to get Zhang back to the table... but the problem with circular telegrams going around was they invited responses from other gentlemen... and Wu had responded on more than one occasion. Zhili and Fengtien had officers both stirring the pot now, even if it had been strictly local commanders in the south...the dispute over who should administer Shanghai, "I'm not comfortable not throwing up some kind of blocking force on the railway north." Which would look very much like Xian was siding with Cao without actually declaring for him."

"Our 15 cm field guns were within range of the city when the pony tail general put Puyi back on the throne, you want me to move those," He jerked his head to the new 'New Service Standards' the 155mm caliber 39, "Up. Three rounds a minute," In the rapid fire that doctrine prescribed before accessing effectiveness, " nearly twenty miles of range anything stupid enough to stand in the open gets what they get."

That was the other advantage. Two divisions and troops from supporting brigades across a narrow defensive frontage maximized their fighting power by a weight in artillery and logistics to keep fighting. If Zhang broke out into the north china plain and moved south he'd be on basically open farmland, out in the open... much as Zhu had been before he'd fallen back into Baoding proper in 1917.
--
Notes: I personally, having recently reread the primary sources i have access to (mostly telegrams) suspect the last stop before Fengtien Zhili was unavoidable was actually probably back in May or possibly even July Zhang used the excuse of the conflict (kiangsu) over Shanghai as the reason for war, but he also laid out a long list of other grievances... yes a few days after this snippet is set he calls for a conference to confirm he has the political support from his officers... but by spring of1924 he knew was going to war, and by summer he was committed and the only potential way to stop that was if something had derailed that.

Japan tried to get Zhang to back off, and for there to be a conference ove r Shanghai, but Shanghai was ultimately an excuse. Zhang wanted a rematch against Wu to rehabilitate or vindicate his reputation as a general, and ultimately Feng switching sides didn't accomplish that... but we will get to that later.

Here, Xian isbasically reiterating... functionally all of its territorial gains since Duan Qirui came to power as premier during WW1. It perceives a need to reiterate where its territorial boundaries, where territorial integrity lies. But, and this is the problem, Zhang honestly likely has no actual quarrel with Xian here, Manchuria as apolitical entity doesn't care... Zhang thinks its his turn to have Cao Kun's job, and he has a grudge against Wu Peifu, he doesn't care about Duan Qirui or Sun Yat-sen in this (his nominal allies), this is primarily basically a school yard scuffle writ large to him. This is in many respects a feudal conflict with modern weapons. [Xian / the cadre don't have a solution to answering how to stop that from being a problem because so much of the bureacracy even in the beiyang is based on direct patronage and local military strength]

 

[ATP]

dunno about that civil war but in OTL when soviets attacked China in 1928 or 1929 chineese infrantry which was attacked by taks simply run.and that was soviet version of FT17.

but your troops must be better,and 20mm would destroy any light tank till 1939. Even japanesse so called medium tanks
funny thing why japanesse/well,italians to/ decide to pretend that their light tanks are medium.
it not helped them whe they meet real medium tanks.

Planes - you could start making fighters and bomber-transport like later SM 82.and made them from wood.good fighters could be made fromwood tillend of WW2,like soviet Ła9.

 

[Imperator Pax]

dunno about that civil war but in OTL when soviets attacked China in 1928 or 1929 chineese infrantry which was attacked by taks simply run.and that was soviet version of FT17.

but your troops must be better,and 20mm would destroy any light tank till 1939. Even japanesse so called medium tanks
funny thing why japanesse/well,italians to/ decide to pretend that their light tanks are medium.
it not helped them whe they meet real medium tanks.

Planes - you could start making fighters and bomber-transport like later SM 82.and made them from wood.good fighters could be made fromwood tillend of WW2,like soviet Ła9.

Click to shrink...

The difference after the northern expedition is that there was basically no espirit de corp remaining, during the Xinjiang border conflict the Ma clique (which is already defunct by this point in AoE) had spent the last twenty years disintegrating as a professional force. Originally the Ma clique had very professional troops they had some of the best most modern troops of the late Qing dynasty, they were well equipped, fast forward to during WW1 (after 1916) supply and manpower attrition and leadership deaths (the original Ma clique was dominated by a series of very old men even during the late Qing, and time and age took its toll) by the time the soviets all of that, most of the structure, most of the unit cohesion was gone, and it had devolved largely into regional strongmen , a kind of microcosm of what had happened to the Beiyang army after Yuan Shikai dying

As for Japan's armor doctrine, so much of that is tied to Japanese Imperial Army internal posturing, and also the external limitations imposed by the division of strategic material inside the Japanese budget which forced the IJA and to a lesser extent the IJN to use limitted specialist metals in alloy construction or just do without them all together in some projects, or use ersatz materials. And again Japanese Army higher authority doctrine refused to update and issue new manuals reflecting changes in warfare IIRC the IJA issued like two wholly new field manuals one in the late twenties, and one in the early forties with regards to warfare that is to say one that was not largely based on previous manuals or simple additions to previous texts.

The way the IJA Staff college was run compounded this problem you can send all the officers you want to bovington or to the USA or Germany later to watch tank drills but the general doesn't want to listen and you can't get money for the program it doesn't do you any good... and thats without touching on the logistics of transporting tanks in the Japanese system. The Japanese did try to promulagate tank warfare ideas, but like with the artillery it was largely suffocated by an Infantry centric, square division, full mobilization army and the IJA's aviation service eating fuel allocations that might have otherwise supported some degree of greater mechanization

The Italians, I have to wonder how much of that waas not Mussolini handicapping Italy's development in the name of fuel consumption during the early interwar years because the semovente's do perform decently well admittedly they're self propelled howitzers really but also how much of Italian armor doctrine (again not an area I'm especially familiar with) was impacted by colonial imperial aspirations how much of the light tank emphasis was based on wanting to go haying off in africa and the need to transport those tanks over the sea? How much of this is logistics and grand strategy shaping doctrine, with Japan I can narrow down why Japan made the choices it did (even when in hindsight they were bad decisions).

 

[ATP]

The difference after the northern expedition is that there was basically no espirit de corp remaining, during the Xinjiang border conflict the Ma clique (which is already defunct by this point in AoE) had spent the last twenty years disintegrating as a professional force. Originally the Ma clique had very professional troops they had some of the best most modern troops of the late Qing dynasty, they were well equipped, fast forward to during WW1 (after 1916) supply and manpower attrition and leadership deaths (the original Ma clique was dominated by a series of very old men even during the late Qing, and time and age took its toll) by the time the soviets all of that, most of the structure, most of the unit cohesion was gone, and it had devolved largely into regional strongmen , a kind of microcosm of what had happened to the Beiyang army after Yuan Shikai dying

As for Japan's armor doctrine, so much of that is tied to Japanese Imperial Army internal posturing, and also the external limitations imposed by the division of strategic material inside the Japanese budget which forced the IJA and to a lesser extent the IJN to use limitted specialist metals in alloy construction or just do without them all together in some projects, or use ersatz materials. And again Japanese Army higher authority doctrine refused to update and issue new manuals reflecting changes in warfare IIRC the IJA issued like two wholly new field manuals one in the late twenties, and one in the early forties with regards to warfare that is to say one that was not largely based on previous manuals or simple additions to previous texts.

The way the IJA Staff college was run compounded this problem you can send all the officers you want to bovington or to the USA or Germany later to watch tank drills but the general doesn't want to listen and you can't get money for the program it doesn't do you any good... and thats without touching on the logistics of transporting tanks in the Japanese system. The Japanese did try to promulagate tank warfare ideas, but like with the artillery it was largely suffocated by an Infantry centric, square division, full mobilization army and the IJA's aviation service eating fuel allocations that might have otherwise supported some degree of greater mechanization

The Italians, I have to wonder how much of that waas not Mussolini handicapping Italy's development in the name of fuel consumption during the early interwar years because the semovente's do perform decently well admittedly they're self propelled howitzers really but also how much of Italian armor doctrine (again not an area I'm especially familiar with) was impacted by colonial imperial aspirations how much of the light tank emphasis was based on wanting to go haying off in africa and the need to transport those tanks over the sea? How much of this is logistics and grand strategy shaping doctrine, with Japan I can narrow down why Japan made the choices it did (even when in hindsight they were bad decisions).

Click to shrink...

Thanks for chapter.I tried to find sometching about italians, and here it is:

1.They do not made real medium tank,like P.40,earlier becouse Mussolini gave monopoly to one factory in making it,if they cooperate they could mass produce it earlier.

2.They should replace M.13 and M.14 with Semovente from beginning,but for some reason they keep making them.
Even when making Semovente on M14 chasis ws cheaper then making M.14.Dunno why.

3.Germans in 1942 proposed to sell them cheaply lines for making PzIII,becouse they decide to stop mass producing it.Italians refused ,becouse they wanted italian tank.Germans proposed some Skoda medium tank prototype,italians refused again.

4.Germans in 1943 proposed to gave either PzIV/130 per month in Italy/ or Panther/50 per month/ if italians gave half of production to germans.Italians refused again.

Dunno why they were that stupid.


Germans really could gave plans and machines to built sometching allies for part of production - they gave Hungary plans of Me 210 heavy fighter,and hungarians gave them part of production.
It could serve only on Easter Front,Allies schoot it in first fight.

By the way,Hungary also produced their own medium tanks/well,Czech really/ Turan 1 and 2,when they could get german better tanks.Dunno why,again.

Even Finland try to mass produce Brewster fighter ,when they buyed better germans.By the way,they served against soviets getting 4:1 or sometching like that ratio of schoot planes against soviets with much better planes.

It is really pity that Patton could not attack soviets - i think,that they would lost even worst.

 

[Imperator Pax]

Thanks for chapter.I tried to find sometching about italians, and here it is:

1.They do not made real medium tank,like P.40,earlier becouse Mussolini gave monopoly to one factory in making it,if they cooperate they could mass produce it earlier.

2.They should replace M.13 and M.14 with Semovente from beginning,but for some reason they keep making them.
Even when making Semovente on M14 chasis ws cheaper then making M.14.Dunno why.

3.Germans in 1942 proposed to sell them cheaply lines for making PzIII,becouse they decide to stop mass producing it.Italians refused ,becouse they wanted italian tank.Germans proposed some Skoda medium tank prototype,italians refused again.

4.Germans in 1943 proposed to gave either PzIV/130 per month in Italy/ or Panther/50 per month/ if italians gave half of production to germans.Italians refused again.

Dunno why they were that stupid.


Germans really could gave plans and machines to built sometching allies for part of production - they gave Hungary plans of Me 210 heavy fighter,and hungarians gave them part of production.
It could serve only on Easter Front,Allies schoot it in first fight.

By the way,Hungary also produced their own medium tanks/well,Czech really/ Turan 1 and 2,when they could get german better tanks.Dunno why,again.

Even Finland try to mass produce Brewster fighter ,when they buyed better germans.By the way,they served against soviets getting 4:1 or sometching like that ratio of schoot planes against soviets with much better planes.

It is really pity that Patton could not attack soviets - i think,that they would lost even worst.

Click to shrink...

I'm going to speculate on points 3 and 4 based on two, and what I understand of the Italian system without doing extra research (which I will probably do at some other point when I have time) I strongly suspect two factors here, the first is charitable explanation of standing up a new industrial line, takes time building out a factory (even just moving one factory to a new location) does take time, it takes time to train people and get back into the rhythm.

Thats the 'lets be nice and assume the best possible reasoning'. The alternative, and or compimentary reason is 'not made here' reasoning which I suspect does play a role. Even without Mussolini being a self aggrandizing prick and having a fragile ego the 'we must have an italian design for national honor' is very much likely in play, frankly we see this even today, and of course its not limitted to Italy but here I suspect that the refusal of a German design, and then the Skoda design was a mix of aforementioned 'it would take too long' and also very heavily the 'its not Italian so we don't want it'.

So as for the Semovente being cheaper I can almost guaruntee that its the turret design to fit the 75mm that is why its cheaper than building the M14 because the Italian breakthrough tanks have a fairly complex geometry to them and that takes time and is expensive compared to the semovente's hey we put box with big single gun in it. [Thats an over simplification but I would lay money that is the primary reason the semovente ended up being less of a pain to make]

Ironically here thats why Xian is able to produce the tanks it does, ;there is no bow machine gun, or mult turretted design in Xian's armor force. [This is simplified hull design to start with] Doctrine due to coming at this primarily from the artillery branch is we fit one gun on tank so it can throw High Explosive at the other guy and we want a bunch of them. The result is Xian's Model 1932 is very similar in role to the Semovente of we fit a relatively short barrel ~3inch gun into a tank (its torsion bar versus the Vickers (IIRC?) leaf spring suspension, but whatever) that can throw high explosive at Infantry or strong points to facilitate advancing ground forces. The 1932 is not intended for fighting 'oh look its yet another FT17 copy' because a 14 lb HE charge is going probably catastrophically rupture an FT17 and certainly any of the tanks with cast iron armor on a direct hit (i.e. some of Japanese tanks that were using cast iron as a ersatz armor).

 

[ATP]

I'm going to speculate on points 3 and 4 based on two, and what I understand of the Italian system without doing extra research (which I will probably do at some other point when I have time) I strongly suspect two factors here, the first is charitable explanation of standing up a new industrial line, takes time building out a factory (even just moving one factory to a new location) does take time, it takes time to train people and get back into the rhythm.

Thats the 'lets be nice and assume the best possible reasoning'. The alternative, and or compimentary reason is 'not made here' reasoning which I suspect does play a role. Even without Mussolini being a self aggrandizing prick and having a fragile ego the 'we must have an italian design for national honor' is very much likely in play, frankly we see this even today, and of course its not limitted to Italy but here I suspect that the refusal of a German design, and then the Skoda design was a mix of aforementioned 'it would take too long' and also very heavily the 'its not Italian so we don't want it'.

So as for the Semovente being cheaper I can almost guaruntee that its the turret design to fit the 75mm that is why its cheaper than building the M14 because the Italian breakthrough tanks have a fairly complex geometry to them and that takes time and is expensive compared to the semovente's hey we put box with big single gun in it. [Thats an over simplification but I would lay money that is the primary reason the semovente ended up being less of a pain to make]

Ironically here thats why Xian is able to produce the tanks it does, ;there is no bow machine gun, or mult turretted design in Xian's armor force. [This is simplified hull design to start with] Doctrine due to coming at this primarily from the artillery branch is we fit one gun on tank so it can throw High Explosive at the other guy and we want a bunch of them. The result is Xian's Model 1932 is very similar in role to the Semovente of we fit a relatively short barrel ~3inch gun into a tank (its torsion bar versus the Vickers (IIRC?) leaf spring suspension, but whatever) that can throw high explosive at Infantry or strong points to facilitate advancing ground forces. The 1932 is not intended for fighting 'oh look its yet another FT17 copy' because a 14 lb HE charge is going probably catastrophically rupture an FT17 and certainly any of the tanks with cast iron armor on a direct hit (i.e. some of Japanese tanks that were using cast iron as a ersatz armor).

Click to shrink...

Thanks! Italian M.18 semovente actually had short 75mm gun,so you practically made it.
Althought probably with lesser armour,M.18 had 50mm front armour.

Later you could made M.25/105mm howitzer/ and M.46/long AT 75mm gun/ versions,like italians.

Your explanations are probably true.Fun thing - Swiss did it during WW2 becouse nobody wanted to sell them modern stuff,so they mass produced french MS 406 fighter,as D.3800 i think,later improved versions.
But,when they could buy P.51 after WW2,they stopped developing their own fighters.

Only smaller country for which making their own worked was Sweden,which made their own tanks and fighters after WW2.
France,England,Germany,even Italy - they all made their own stuff after WW2.


Althought there were cases where you should not buy from USA cheaper - like with Canada,when they scrapped Avro Arrov to buy F 104 widowmakers.

 

[Imperator Pax]

Thanks! Italian M.18 semovente actually had short 75mm gun,so you practically made it.
Althought probably with lesser armour,M.18 had 50mm front armour.

Later you could made M.25/105mm howitzer/ and M.46/long AT 75mm gun/ versions,like italians.

Your explanations are probably true.Fun thing - Swiss did it during WW2 becouse nobody wanted to sell them modern stuff,so they mass produced french MS 406 fighter,as D.3800 i think,later improved versions.
But,when they could buy P.51 after WW2,they stopped developing their own fighters.

Only smaller country for which making their own worked was Sweden,which made their own tanks and fighters after WW2.
France,England,Germany,even Italy - they all made their own stuff after WW2.


Althought there were cases where you should not buy from USA cheaper - like with Canada,when they scrapped Avro Arrov to buy F 104 widowmakers.

Click to shrink...

Honestly the 32 which is IIRC from my drafting notes is supposed to running the Liberty V12 engine (which is originally WW1 engine design that the US and UK both liscenced out and continued to develop) it makes about 400 HP (i've mentioned this previously its a very good engine for all sorts of things) so Xian's 1932 running torsion bar, Liberty, short cannon probably does accomdate something along the lines of 50mm of frontal armor... and of course the limitation of this is that its a true medium tank weight wise and certainly outweighs Semovente (a diesel V8 engine) probably approaching if not exceeding 20 tons with a crew of four (Driver, TC, Loader, Gunner). So operationally range is going to be limitted, and its going to have limits on where it can actually cross rivers (bridge engineering loads etc)

But again this was touched on slightly with material from CC which is broadly canon, Xian's interwar armor doctrine in the 30s are tanks are a strategic corp level mobile assault force, the M1932 is designed to mass and provide the direct breakthrough firepower to facilitate an attack by other (that is to say Infantry) divisions hence why its the singular Armor Division is so tank heavy. Its put all these guys forward of artillery and have individual tank platoons shell enemy positions to support the infantry. I.E. here is three rounds of HE per tank to support an infantry maneuver. In that scenario you're not worrying about pushing two hundred miles (hyperbole) into the enemy rear to cause mischief you're concern is if there are two hundred thousand enemy troops committed can you support feeding that many shells but all that is late interwar post NOrthern Expedition,


Sweden has a long industrial history, and had the advantage of selling material to both sides Sweden was supplying industrial material to England basically during British industrialization and never stopped so, even long after the Swedish Empire went defunct Sweden was able to continue to maintain an industrial base into modernity because it never lost the manufacturing capacity and continued to expand it. That technical service base is impressive, and the modern result of that is now Gripen but Geography is also a reason why Sweden continued manufacturing its own fighters while Switzerland did not the Swiss decision is very much landlocked (yes there are rivers) but no sea access and the geopolitical reality of what any air conflict is likely to look like

--
and yeah on paper F104 sounds like a great idea, the manufacturing consortium was a good idea... lockmart bribing people to adopt the plane before the engine was fully realized was the problem with that. We will see Xian (Post reunification) adopt and manufacture F 14s, but thats also because the basic idea of F 104 and is also much down the road and thats also because the F 4 gets adopted for being a big rugged twin engine bomb truck that everyone adopts but again thats cold war , well down the road

 

[ATP]

i think you should show how your China changed Japan during WW2.In OTL they started WW2 with light fighters and tanks,becouse it worked for them in China.And banzai charges,becouse they worked in OTL China,too.

Here,they would meet good real tanks, good fighters,and banzai charges get slaughtered.It should lead to Japan developing good fighters with strong engines,like Ki 84,earlier,just like real modern tanks,like Type 4,and stop banzai charges and replace with small unit attacks.

Japan would still lost,of course, but Allies on Pacyfic should get heavier lossess.sea battles in 1944 would be not so one-sides,becouse Japan would have new good fighters.

Later cold war - your Country could actually buy Avro Arrow or J.35 instead of american planes,just to be independent.I remember some AH story where China Empire never fall,and,as a result,they buyed and produced european planes and tanks before and after WW2,just to not be depend on USA.

Forget source,as usual.

 

[Imperator Pax]

15th ​September 1924
Allen scowled which a gesture mirrored by various other officers in the room under the harshness of the electric lights. Jun had remarked it was a Jiazhi year, which did not worry him per se... he wasn't even sure that idea of the long calendar cycle impacted Zhang Tsolin's decision making... but it might have... and people might ascribe that to his motivations regardless. If Cao Kun beat off the Manchurians a second time... or third if you wanted to count 1917... there would be arguments from the Zhili clique as well about what the year meant.

Intelligence had known that Zhang had been moving troops to staging positions yes. "Maybe the asshole thought he was being considerate by waiting until after the festival." Dawes snarked to his right before putting a mug of precious, hot, dark coffee down on the table for him... a cup that Dawes sounded like he needed to drink.

There was no question that Zhang was going to do it. No trains had run the day before, or the day before that which had been the most obvious sign that something was 'bad / wrong'. Yet they had still gone to the festival, and men including himself had gone to spend time with their families. Now though from the telegrams, and telephones they knew that Zhang was preparing to move... that he intended to cross the border.

The recall order, including information passed from the Japanese diplomatic staff and the military attache in Mukden had been the warning. Japan's attempts at putting this to a conference had failed and that had meant a movement by train to bring men back and forward. That was why Dawes was here in person and Waite had rotated back to Zhengzhou with this week.

Zhang had gone to officers... held a conference and asked if there was any dissent on the motion to actually go to war. How pro forma that was was being debated, and within the cadre that would have been the final opportunity for officers to make recommendations to change plans inconsideration for any potential issues to an operations order... but Zhang had also probably been making sure he had the support of the men carrying the load of commanding men directly.

"It was probably a mistake to grant weekend passes."

"We took Tokyo's assurances." Cullen replied to Dawes's statement, "And we also took Zhang's assurance that his grievance is Cao Kun's overreach. Waite can complain about it, but if we had a proper diplomatic staff a foreign office or whatever you want to call it we wouldn't be the ones taking calls." And if there for someone in the middle had been there to take the calls and pass them along the bureaucracy would insulate choices. "But if Zhang attacked on the holiday, especially after saying he wouldn't it'd be a blood bath."

Allen had taken the train back to Xian to be at home over the weekend. About a third of the men had been given passes to do the same, the men who didn't have watch duty or some other tasking had been allowed to take passes and go into the city here. "We'd have had to rush men back though." In the Philippines in 1902 they'd been let loose on leave despite concerns about insurrectionists potentially causing trouble, the colonel had let them spend hot summer weekend out among the locals convinced things would be fine, "Cole's right, if we had ignored those assurances we have looked as if we intended to do something, and our troops might have assumed that as well, and might well have pushed us into an escalatory cycle if we got a repeat of 1917." When of course the Manchu Restoration had popped off at troops who had then returned fire, pressing the cadre to mobilize against the Restoration of the boy Emperor Puyi by the pony tail general.

On the other hand the Marshal of Manchuria hd not gone so far as to directly askXian to confirm its neutrality. Manchuria's position was that Zhanghad a grievance with Wu Pei-fu and the tyrannical overreach by the federal government in intruding upon the rights... etc etc. The words were typical, boilerplate of the hundreds of conflicts since the fall of the old dynasty those arguments had been made in circulars thousands of times. There was nothing at all original about it, the names changed in them but the jist remained.

"He's going to hit eastern Zhili, does he actually go for Baoding?"

"He has to, the military academy there is strategically significant." Which was an understatement, it wasn't just a military significance. Baoding was a cultural institution within the Beiyang army and almost every officer in the Beiyang clique as it had existed under Yuan Shikai had attended it. That schoolboy fraternity was important socially... Percy would have probably compared the school to Eton, or some such.

In 1917 the coup had seized Baoding. The push further south had brought the manchurian forces into direct conflict with the cadre... probably by accident. That had been a different manchurian clique though than than the contemporary Fengtian clique. That didn't stop the possibility that someone would get excited, or that less charitably that a push down the railway wouldn't be mounted to open up the rail line south... as had apparently been the plan in 1917 without broader consideration by Zhang Xun's subordinates of what might happen.

"Shan," The XO turned away from the map he was focused on. "Order 10th ​division to join alongside 1st​, and put our," First Corp's allocated, "Albatrosses aloft for reconnaissance flights, you can officially schedule those flights through the end of the month."

Cole eyed him as the order was added to the book. "We can only pretend this is a normal summer drill so long," and that was funny coming from the general who'd brought a detachment of riverine patrol boats up to participate in the 'absolutely normal drills'.

"Shanghai will have more things to worry about than aircraft being sent up to spot for our artillery given the situation with things," but the larger issue... and the reason to bring the tenth up, and put planes up there was to maximize the warning if something did go south. Developed from Bekker's gun, the autocannon carried by the infantry fighting vehicle had the ability to engage aircraft from the ground... how effective they could traverse was a question but if Little Zhang tried to move his mélange of various aircraft they were at least able to put something relatively mobile there. "Cao is confident Wu can manage things."

"Three field commands, quarter of a million men. Its a fair enough fight on paper." Except that was the problem. Qualitatively Manchuria had the more modern army. "We don't know enough about the situation with the navy, our best understanding there is going to be the Legation," And hope that the USN and Royal Navy were accurate about the situation between the various small squadrons that nominally formed the part of the Beiyang Navy loyal to the Zhili clique. "I say we ignore the entire naval question alone unless the legation," Really Percy, or the American Charge d'affairs, "volunteer the information. Little Zhang is almost certainly going to aim at the railway terminal, and try and secure access south," That meant evicting the Zhili clique from the eastern end of the Great Wall, "If he is there, that puts him well away from us, and I would assume will tie up the majority of his daddy's air force."

The reading was probably sound, and Allen turned to see if Dawes objected to it, as Shan was occupied with the telephone dispatcher. That was mostly geography determining the battle, where you had to fight in order to pass through on to further objectives, but Wu had forces stationed west of Peking north of the capital and Jehol was almost certainly going to be contested, or used a springboard for probes or outright offensive thrusts. "The situation with the navy boys, certainly what happens there, not our business." Dawes concurred, "You'll have to ask Japan about the condition of the railways in Manchuria and the passage of trains south, if those lines are open and carrying troops he will be able to transfer most of the army down by table," By tables of mobilization, "And then we will be looking at half a million men fighting on the outskirts of Peking, which will cause panic, and if either side breaks, probably a riot."

A decade ago the Europeans had begun the bloodiest conflict humanity had thus known. This didn't seem likely to be so terrible, but it had the potential to be bad nonetheless. The map was an expanse of terrain familiar to every officer in the office, or for that matter across the entirety of the Corp. The fact that they were working from an office reminded them that a decade ago this city had been the original strongpoint of cadre influence and industrial growth, before the move further inland to Xian and the realization of the European war's scope.

1st ​Rifle Division, 1st​ Gendarmes, the 1st​ Civil Affairs Brigade, the 1st​ Dragoons Brigade all were positioned across the terrain of the map. The Dragoons could not actually be used to scout as doctrine suggested they be employed here... not in the bottle of farmland between the two cities. Baoding to the north of them left little in the way of territory to surveil and left the specialists of a brigade intended to scout and check a potential enemy advance basically serving as men on the line, which Allen knew had to be frustrating.

This was the only theater that mattered in the conflict. To the public, Shanghai was a distant city, riven with corruption, negative influence and in the sway of gangsters and other undesirable influences. Zhejiang and Kiangsu arguing over the city elicited derision from Xian's politically active middle class... and that had become in the last two weeks especially an issue as they moved towards the november elections.

That was especially true of the papers here in town that were readily available for troopers to read when they weren't otherwise engaged by the needs of the army. Zhang could dress up this however he wanted...but what that was proving out to do, "It just makes our folks despise him and Cao." Cole remarked gesturing to his own XO, Colonel Ma who had been the officer of the watch the previous weekend. "We're bringing the 10th​ forward, make sure our artillery doesn't get confused. So double check who is on which frequencies, and where possible we're going to want to relay orders by telephone. We're also putting aircraft aloft."

"Is the training going to involve simulated fire?" The colonel questioned, and Shan sent the man in the black jacket a dirty look.

"Nah, we don't want to give Percy the vapors." Cole replied, and he wasn't wrong given the situation, even if it wasn't just foreign observers who might misunderstand live fire drills if the artillery park did open up. "Just make sure the communications tanks," Command tanks, "Have all their equipment and know who is on what channels before the 10th​ is deployed into the line."

"We should complain general about the Manchurian rudeness, disrupting our traditional summer drill is the height of inconsideracy."

"I'll make time for your artillery men if things don't drop into the pot. And if they do, well, they'll have plenty more to handle until the rest of the Corp comes up." Being the National Guard Divisions.

Allen looked at the clock on the wall illuminated by the electric lights over head, "Still not a decent enough hour to be calling folks for answers yet." He mostly was grumbling to himself on that account but it was true. The situation was what it as, and the Japanese would be able to tell them which parts of the twenty seven brigades comprising the Manchurian Army were being split into their western force... which would give them a picture of which officers were in charge. It wouldn't meaningfully change what they were equipped with... at least artillery wise. Zhang had mortars and machine guns and most likely all but his reserve troops would have 8mm Mausers of his new model, or the iteration before that. "I expect thats still about eighty to a hundred thousand men." Possibly less but if that were the case than Zhang fighting through the capital's suburbs and still having enough energy to push on to Baoding seemed unlikely unless he faced no resistance... which was unlikely to be the case.

On the other hand it still eliminate him reaching Baoding by rail and there being an incident. 10th would take its place on the eastern flank, and that would allow them to shift troops eastward allowing wider mobility to the units most suited to benefit from that.

--
Notes: Again this is in part to reiterate this is 1924, this is post WW1, but pre frankly where ever you want to draw the line for the various cold war era reforms, which shifted various armed forces into their much more modern institutions. Again, as I've mentioned previously interwar Japan was significantly more forthright in conversations about diplomatically sensitive topics than they perhaps should have been.

Note2 Fengtian and Fengtien are interchangeable historically in most modern english language literature its -an but historically both were used. Fengtien is most commonly still used for the currency that Zhang Tsolin issued up until his death (though it is also used for other manchurian currency).

 

[Imperator Pax]

i think you should show how your China changed Japan during WW2.In OTL they started WW2 with light fighters and tanks,becouse it worked for them in China.And banzai charges,becouse they worked in OTL China,too.

Here,they would meet good real tanks, good fighters,and banzai charges get slaughtered.It should lead to Japan developing good fighters with strong engines,like Ki 84,earlier,just like real modern tanks,like Type 4,and stop banzai charges and replace with small unit attacks.

Click to shrink...

I have actually started foreshadowing this. Its not the Kwantung army who is making the changes though, its their neighbor to the north under Yamagata Iseburo, and then his successor, that has started noticing... now to be sure the Kwantung Army does push for more tanks (historically they were the ones who supported the tank brigade idea) here Manchuria starts producing more FT 17 and other tankettes at the start but eventually do move into other projects

Iseburo is currently using the justification of 'I hate communists give me modern triangle divisions', with Nakamichi and Takagi among others taking up later, and after the Kwantung army gets its clock cleaned they go 'see we told you we need a modern army'. Thats the laconic version anyway, Japan's IJA isn't without modernizing influential generals, they do notice things, and they will eventually make changes but that will take time to basically get Imperial recognition of the old plan is not working. HIrohito was told repeatedly no things are fine, here there is someone (someones) in the IJA who have alternate ideas and a situation bad enough (North Army Group getting mauled in eighteen months of WW1 esque fighting) to force HIrohito to name someone to make changes

 

[ATP]

Thanks for chapter !

It seems,that they try to avoid being pulled into civil war,and for time it could work.I think,that even nobody attack them now,Czang would do that later.
When it happen,your Model 1932 would be used,and,as a result, everybody in world would at least try to copy it.
It is possible,that both France and Italy would use mainly their Semovente instead of regular tanks,and all other armies would use them in smaller numbers,too.
Althought it should not change how WW2 would end.

P.S about coffea,i hear joke song : "Kawa się nadawa,lecz gorzała lepiej działa"
my translation - coffea is good,but moonshine is better !
I bet,that if they drink a little of it,they would not want sleep anymore.