Wyvern was theoretically in the lead as of the last predictions, but Recoil was close enough to have potentially caught up. Nothing else was in range, though -- the next nearest was Security!, more than 100 votes behind.
Really? Easier guess than I thought.
Much as I'd like Recoil to win, going by the voting totals from last round and the typical leader slump I just don't think it has enough of a lead.
Next up will be
Wyvern, then most likely
Security!. After that ... who knows. Check out
Jim Starluck 's spreadsheet for a reasonable prediction.
Well, now, let's see here...
Wyvern and
Security! sure do have Votes 68 and 69 pretty well locked-down, respectively; Wyvern in particular will potentially hit 1,000+ votes next round. After that,
All Alone looks like a good bet for Vote 70 in the low 900s; the next-nearest will be
Trump Card about 30 votes behind. Close enough to potentially overtake, but not a sure thing by any means.
If All Alone manages to hang onto the lead, then
Trump Card will
definitely win Vote 71; nothing else will be close to it as it hurtles towards the 1,000 vote line.
Alea Iacta Est will probably figure that looks like fun, and win Vote 72 at about or just above 1k votes as well. That story in particular is picking up steam; it and Wyvern are now the two highest-earning stories by a large margin.
Vote 73 sees another story join the 1k club:
Meet the Heberts, for its first vote win, no less. Next-nearest will be I, Panacea about 50 votes back, though that margin may shift as we get closer. Assuming no upsets
I, Panacea will win Vote 74 handily, as will
Wyvern win Vote 75.
Then we've got a prediction upset; One More Trigger was previously predicted to win Vote 76, but it's looking like
Recoil will beat it to the punch as it joins the 1k Club.
One More Trigger will follow suite in Vote 77, green with envy.
Doesn't look like we have that many chances for upsets over the next month, but only time will tell.
The last round of predictions came in at 96.68% accurate.
War Games was the furthest off proportionally at only 84.27% accuracy; it came in substantially higher than predicted (I blame the combined sex appeal of 6 different James Bonds in AI form).
Bait & Switch was the most accurate, at 100% -- zero deviation from prediction, it picked up exactly 19 votes.
Alea Iacta Est was the furthest off in raw vote count, grabbing 33 more than anticipated for a total gain of 152, solidifying its claim as second-most popular story after Wyvern.
Story rankings (based on average votes earned per round) are currently as follows:
1:
Wyvern - 160 votes/round
2:
Alea Iacta Est - 122
3:
Recoil - 115
4:
Trump Card - 113
5:
I, Panacea - 94
6:
Security! - 78
7:
Meet the Heberts - 63
8:
One More Trigger - 61
9:
TIED! - 52
- All Alone
- NSW
10:
Slippery Slope - 46
11:
Confrontation II - 45
12:
Hostage Situation - 44
13:
War Games - 40
14:
MirrorVerse - 30
15:
Nemesis - 26
16:
Danny & Taylor - 22
17:
TIED! - 19
- Junior Hero
- Really Bad End
- Bait & Switch
As always, this Vote Forecast is based on prior voting habits, averaged over the last 10 rounds. Actual results are not guaranteed to match predicted values with perfect accuracy.
[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] NSW - 5
[X] One More Trigger - 4
[X] Security! - 3
[X] I, Panacea - 2
[X] Recoil - 1
