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Vote Thread for Ack's Omake Corner

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Added a new page to the spreadsheet, which attempts to estimate winners of the next 10 votes based on how many votes a story currently has, and how many it gained in the last vote. Please keep in mind these are ESTIMATES -- it assumes everyone votes the same as they did last time, which they almost certainly will not.

If Wyvern keeps up its current rate-of-votes, it'll update 3 times before any other story manages to update twice.
 
Jim Starluck said:
Added a new page to the spreadsheet, which attempts to estimate winners of the next 10 votes based on how many votes a story currently has, and how many it gained in the last vote. Please keep in mind these are ESTIMATES -- it assumes everyone votes the same as they did last time, which they almost certainly will not.

If Wyvern keeps up its current rate-of-votes, it'll update 3 times before any other story manages to update twice.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

My personal system is that the number of votes a story on my personal voting rotation gets depends on how long it's been since it won a vote. For example, One More Trigger got one vote this round because it just won the last vote. If, as I expect, Wyvern wins this round, then it will get one vote on the next round and One More Trigger will get two votes, and so on.
 
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EJH said:
My personal system is that the number of votes a story on my personal voting rotation gets depends on how long it's been since it won a vote. For example, One More Trigger got one vote this round because it just won the last vote. If, as I expect, Wyvern wins this round, then it will get one vote on the next round and One More Trigger will get two votes, and so on.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
That's similar to how I do it. Stories with the least current votes get the most, except for NSW and MtH, which I always put at the top because they don't get as many votes as his SFW stuff.

After a few more rounds I'll start using a running average of the last few votes, instead of just the most recent. Can't really do that right now since a whole bunch of stories have only been in the running for a short time.
 
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[X] Hostage Situation - 6
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 5
[X] Trump Card - 4
[X] Bait & Switch - 3
[X] One More Trigger - 2
[X] Meet the Heberts - 1
 
Jim Starluck said:
Added a new page to the spreadsheet, which attempts to estimate winners of the next 10 votes based on how many votes a story currently has, and how many it gained in the last vote. Please keep in mind these are ESTIMATES -- it assumes everyone votes the same as they did last time, which they almost certainly will not.

If Wyvern keeps up its current rate-of-votes, it'll update 3 times before any other story manages to update twice.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Not seeing a problem with this, honestly.
 
[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] Trump Card - 5
[X] NSW - 4
[X] Wyvern - 3
[X] Hostage Situation - 2
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 1
 
Last edited:
Navrin said:
How do the numbers change if you use the mean of the past X votes?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Some of them would change substantially.

Wyvern, for example, earned 190 and 193 in the last two votes, but only 139 in the one before that -- and that's all it's had. Right now I'm only taking the last vote. If I averaged the last 2 votes, Wyvern would be going up by 191.5 per round instead of 190. But if I took the last 3 votes, it would fall to 174, and even further if I started counting rounds before it was added to the list. Take 4 rounds and it drops to 130.5, take 5 rounds and it drops to 104.4 -- lower than it's come in any of its actual votes so far. Averaging up to 4 rounds doesn't slow it down enough to change the predicted outcome of the next round, but if I averaged 5 then Trump Card could narrowly beat it out in Vote 61.

What I may do is start averaging all rounds since the 6 newest stories were added, and just keep adding more to the average as I go. That would probably give us a better idea of how things are going to go overall.

Edit: Recalculated based on the average of the last 3 votes. New order looks to be Wyvern, Trump Card, AIE, I, Panacea, War Games, Wyvern again, Recoil, NSW, Security!, Trump Card again. But again, voting trends may shift as stories win.
 
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[X] Hostage Situation - 6
[X] Security! - 5
[X] I, Panacea - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Recoil - 2
[X] Wyvern - 1
 
[X] Bait & Switch - 6
[X] Wyvern - 5
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 4
[X] Confrontation II - 3
[X] All Alone - 2
[X] Recoil - 1
 
[X] All Alone - 6
[X] Trump Card - 5
[X] One More Trigger - 4
[X] Security! - 3
[X] I, Panacea - 2
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 1
 
[X] Wyvern - 6
[X] All Alone - 5
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 4
[X] MirrorVerse - 3
[X] Trump Card - 2
[X] Nemesis - 1
 
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 6
[X] Trump Card - 5
[X] Wyvern - 4
[X] I, Panacea - 3
[X] Security! - 2
[X] Recoil - 1
 
[X] War Games - 6
[X] Wyvern - 5
[X] Trump Card - 4
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 3
[X] One More Trigger - 2
[X] Confrontation II - 1
 
[X] NSW - 6
[X] Meet the Heberts - 5
[X] Security! - 4
[X] Danny & Taylor - 3
[X] Trump Card - 2
[X] Bait & Switch - 1
 
[X] Wyvern - 6
[X] Recoil - 5
[X] I, Panacea - 4
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 3
[X] Security! - 2
[X] Trump Card - 1
 
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 6
[X] Meet the Heberts - 5
[X] Wyvern - 4
]X] NSW - 3
[X] Hostage Situation - 2
[X] One More Trigger - 1
 
[X] War Games - 6
[X] All Alone - 5
[X] Junior Hero - 4
[X] Security! - 3
[X] Recoil - 2
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 1
 
[X] Confrontation II - 6
[X] I, Panacea - 5
[X] Security! - 4
[X] Recoil - 3
[X] All Alone - 2
[X] NSW - 1
 
[X] Recoil - 6
[X] Confrontation II - 5
[X] All Alone - 4
[X] MirrorVerse - 3
[X] Wyvern - 2
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 1
 
[X] Wyvern - 6
[X] Trump Card - 5
[X] Slippery Slope - 4
[X] Meet the Heberts - 3
[X] Recoil - 2
[X] NSW - 1
 
[X] Security! - 6
[X] One More Trigger - 5
[X] I, Panacea - 4
[X] Trump Card - 3
[X] Recoil - 2
[X] Wyvern - 1
 
[X] Wyvern - 6
[X] I, Panacea - 5
[X] Trump Card - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Recoil - 2
[X] Security! - 1
 
[X] NSW - 6
[X] Hostage Situation - 5
[X] Wyvern - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] I, Panacea - 2
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 1
 
[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] NSW - 5
[X] Really Bad End - 4
[X] Danny & Taylor - 3
[X] Bait & Switch - 2
[X] Junior Hero - 1
 
[X] Bait & Switch - 1
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 2
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Danny & Taylor - 4
[X] Really Bad End - 5
[X] Wyvern - 6
 
[X] Wyvern - 6
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 5
[X] I, Panacea - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Slippery Slope - 2
[X] MirrorVerse - 1
 
[X] Nemesis - 6
[X] Junior Hero - 5
[X] Slippery Slope - 4
[X] Recoil - 3
[X] Wyvern - 2
[X] Hostage Situation - 1
 
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